2011 State Elections in Germany

[DL]

It seems to me that the real thing to watch closely in BW is whether or not the Linke Party clears the 5% hurdle and gets into the legislature. It looks to be very touch and go right now. If they do get over 5% then it probably makes it almost impossible for a pure CDU/FDP government. Would that mean CDU/SPD grand coalition or CDU/Green or traffic light.

[minionofmidas]

Probably CDU/SPD, though who knows. CDU/Green would have been likely in BaWü in such a constellation at certain points in the 2000s, but is dead there at current.

[Tender Branson]

New Rheinland-Pfalz poll today:

40% SPD
35% CDU
10% Greens
  5% FDP
  4% Left
  6% Others

Majority for SPD-Greens.

[Tender Branson]

Greens slightly gaining, according to Forsa:

36%  (nc) CDU/CSU
26%  (nc) SPD
18% (+2) Greens
  9%  (-1) Left
  5%  (nc) FDP
  6%  (-1) Others

[minionofmidas]

Postfukushima BaWü poll (comparison with last infratest dimap poll, just a few days older but commissioned by somebody else)

CDU 39 (-3)
Greens 24 (+3)
SPD 22 (0)
FDP 5.5 (-0.5)
Left 4.5 (+0.5)
other 5 (0)

[Tender Branson]

I've also read somewhere that the SPD-guy did relatively badly against Gov. Mappus in the TV debate ?

Let's just hope the Left stays below 5%, which I think might be the case in BW ...

[Tender Branson]

There are also more polls out today.

ARD/Infratest dimap Germany Poll:

35%  (nc) CDU/CSU
28%  (nc) SPD
20% (+5) Greens
  7%  (-2) Left
  5%  (-1) FDP
  5%  (-2) Others

68% of those polled say Merkel's flip-flop concerning nuclear energy is an electoral trick, just 26% say it's a credible move.

ARD/Infratest dimap Rheinland-Pfalz Poll:

36%  (-2) SPD
36%  (nc) CDU
13% (+1) Greens
  5%  (nc) FDP
  4%  (nc) Left
  6% (+1) Others

Change compared with February Infratest poll. Majority for SPD-Greens.

[Tender Branson]

Another fact from the Germany poll:

To get rid completely of nuclear energy, 72% of Germans would be willing to pay higher electricity prices, while only 24% would not.

Also, I just noticed that Red-Green has an own majority once again (48-47).

http://de.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idDEBEE72H03Y20110318

[Tender Branson]

2 new polls have just been released by ZDF & Forschungsgruppe Wahlen and Baden-Württemberg may get its first Green Prime Minister:

Baden-Württemberg poll:

38.0%    [-6.2] CDU
25.0% [+13.3] Greens
22.5%    [-2.7] SPD
  5.0%    [-5.7] FDP
  4.5%   [+1.4] Left
  5.0%    [-0.1] Others

47.5-43.0 majority for Greens-SPD, because the Left fails to break 5%.

Nuclear energy has now been propelled to the main issue that is determining voter's choices for the election.

46% now say that nuclear energy is the main issue and voters also say that the Greens are the most competent about this issue: 47% Greens, 17% CDU, 13% SPD, 1% Left, 1% FDP).

In the direct vote for Governor, Nils Schmid (SPD) now defeats Gov. Stefan Mappus (CDU) by 37-33.

Mappus prevails against Green front-runner Winfried Kretschmann by 37-32.

Voters now also prefer a Green-Red coalition to a CDU-FDP coalition: Green-Red is seen positive by 46-38, CDU-FDP is seen negatively by 31-48.

...

Rheinland-Pfalz poll:

37%  [-8.6] SPD
35% [+2.2] CDU
13% [+8.4] Greens
  5%  [-3.0] FDP
  4% [+1.4] Left
  6%  [-0.4] Others

Solid majority for SPD-Greens.

In a direct vote for Governor, incumbent Kurt Beck (SPD) defeats Julia Klöckner (CDU) by 51-36.

http://politbarometer.zdf.de/ZDFde/inhalt/8/0,1872,8223368,00.html?dr=1

[Tender Branson]

Saxony-Anhalt puts the squeeze on Merkel

By Gerrit Wiesmann in Berlin

Chancellor Angela Merkel faces a possible political setback in Sunday’s elections in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt which would further erode her political authority in Berlin.

The Saxony-Anhalt poll had been widely ignored by the national media and many politicians. Some commentators suggested that the “cuddly campaigning” between conservative Christian Democrats and centre-left Social Democrats pointed to the two parties being set for a second term as coalition partners.

But after their easy victory in the state election in Hamburg in February, the Social Democrats (SPD) have momentum and could emerge with sufficient seats to form a government with the socialist Left party in the state, pushing Ms Merkel’s CDU out of power.

That would damage Ms Merkel’s power in the Bundesrat, the upper chamber of federal parliament, which reflects the composition of the regional governments.

The election is the first test of voter reaction to Ms Merkel’s sudden change in pro-nuclear policy. Defeat in Saxony-Anhalt would also be a bad omen for the poll in the conservative heartland of Baden-Württemberg on March 27, party officials concede.

“Things have become interesting,” Jens Bullerjahn, head of the Saxony-Anhalt SPD, said this week. “I want to overtake the Left party in the next polls and beat the CDU on election night,” he added.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/943f5238-50ce-11e0-9227-00144feab49a.html#axzz1Gw1a9e7S

...

Since it is unlikely that we'll see another poll from Sachsen-Anhalt, here's my prediction:

30.2%  [-6.0] CDU
26.3% [+4.9] SPD
21.5%  [-2.6] Left
  8.1% [+4.5] Greens
  5.7%  [-1.0] FDP
  5.3% [+5.3] NPD
  2.9%  [-5.1] Others

CDU-SPD will continue to govern.

[Franzl]

I agree CDU-SPD will continue to govern, although I'm sceptical that the NPD will actually enter parliament.

[Tender Branson]

I agree CDU-SPD will continue to govern, although I'm sceptical that the NPD will actually enter parliament.

The trend seems to be in their favour though and historically low turnout might also help them.

Here's a good article btw:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,751728,00.html

[DL]

Wouldn't it be a real political earthquake if a "red/green" government (or "green/red") took power in Baden-Wurtemberg? Or even if the Linke party got in and forced a Grand coalition? If I'm not mistaken BW has had a CDU or CDU/FDP state government for as long as it has existed as a state. i don't think the SPD or any left of centre party has EVER had any role in government there. 

I have to think that if the CDU loses power there or has to govern with the SPD - there will be some major repercussions!

[Middle-aged Europe]

Wouldn't it be a real political earthquake if a "red/green" government (or "green/red") took power in Baden-Wurtemberg? Or even if the Linke party got in and forced a Grand coalition? If I'm not mistaken BW has had a CDU or CDU/FDP state government for as long as it has existed as a state. i don't think the SPD or any left of centre party has EVER had any role in government there.  

I have to think that if the CDU loses power there or has to govern with the SPD - there will be some major repercussions!

SPD has been part of the governing coalition in Baden-Württemberg from 1952 to 1960, then from 1966 to 1972, and finally from 1992 to 1996.

Since 1953, the state had only CDU minister-presidents though.

[minionofmidas]

Anybody know why all-party coalitions continued in BaWü until 1960? They were created all over Germany in the immediate postwar, of course, but in the other Western-occupied zones they ended at varying points between 1946 and 1950 or so.

[Tender Branson]

Polls have just opened in Sachsen-Anhalt.

Anyone else to try a prediction ?

[minionofmidas]

Polls have just opened in Sachsen-Anhalt.

Anyone else to try a prediction ?

Approximately half the adults in the state will vote. No one will wonder (in public) why they bothered.

[Tender Branson]

Polls have just opened in Sachsen-Anhalt.

Anyone else to try a prediction ?

Approximately half the adults in the state will vote. No one will wonder (in public) why they bothered.

Isn't turnout more likely to be 35-40% ?

[minionofmidas]

Meh, I am ready to call anything over 40% "approximately half". If it's even less than that, I'll retcon it to "approximately a third".

[Tender Branson]

BTW: Isn't Old Europe from Sachsen-Anhalt ?

[minionofmidas]

Originally. He doesn't live there anymore.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Right.

My parents still do. My mom is voting Green, my dad FDP if my mom lets him (so maybe not ).

Turnout isn't helped by the fact that the election campaign in Saxony-Anhalt was boring as always. The state has also one of the most centrist CDU state chapters and, well, perhaps the most centrist Left Party state chapter in Germany. The actual difference in policy between a CDU/SPD and a SPD/Left government is therefore negligible.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout is actually up by a lot until noon, compared with 2006.

Until noon, 19.8% have voted - which is up from 12.5% in 2006.

This is almost comparable with 2002, when 21.2% voted.

Back in 2002, final turnout was 56.5%.

The next measurement will come shortly at 2pm.

http://www.statistik.sachsen-anhalt.de/wahlen/lt11/fms/fms21112.html

[Tender Branson]

I just noted that today there are 1.988.464 eligible voters.

The report says that there are 1.859.187 eligible voters without the Sperrvermerk "Wahlschein", and 129.277 voters with.

Does that mean that 129.277 people have requested postal ballots ?

http://www.statistik.sachsen-anhalt.de/wahlen/lt11/fms/fms21111.html

[Tender Branson]

Lewis may have been right, turnout at 2pm was 28.5%.

That is up from 20.1% in 2006 and similar to 2002, when it was 30.8%.

Final turnout could now be in the 50-55% range, compared with 44% in 2006.

Still depressingly low, but whatever ...