2011 State Elections in Germany

[Antonio the Sixth]

Still depressingly low, but whatever ...

Don't complain, France had a 53% abstention in last regionals.

[Franzl]

That's good. Could keep the NDP out.

[Tender Branson]

Today we also have a batch of new Emnid polls released for "Focus" newspaper:

Germany

34%  (-1) CDU/CSU
28%  (nc) SPD
18% (+3) Greens
  9%  (-1) Left
  5%  (-1) FDP
  6%  (nc) Others

Baden-Württemberg

38% CDU
25% Greens
22% SPD
  6% FDP
  4% Left
  5% Others

Majority for Greens-SPD.

Rheinland-Pfalz

37% SPD
34% CDU
14% Greens
  6% FDP
  4% Left
  5% Others

Majority for SPD-Greens.

Bayern

46% CSU
17% Greens
17% SPD
  7% Freie Wähler
  4% FDP
  9% Others

Absolute Majority for CSU.

[Antonio the Sixth]

LOL Bayern...

[Franzl]

LOL Bayern...

Best German state. Always has been

[Middle-aged Europe]

Bayern

46% CSU
17% Greens
17% SPD
  7% Freie Wähler
  4% FDP
  9% Others

Absolute Majority for CSU.

On the bright side, a 3% swing could lead to a Green/SPD/Free Voters coalition.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Bayern

46% CSU
17% Greens
17% SPD
  7% Freie Wähler
  4% FDP
  9% Others

Absolute Majority for CSU.

On the bright side, a 3% swing could lead to a Green/SPD/Free Voters coalition.

46% is very bad for the CSU. oK, it's better than the last election, but still very low.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout is still on track to be 53%-ish.

[Tender Branson]

How likely is it that this election will mirror the 1998 elections, when the DVU polled 6% before the vote, but then got 13% on election day. Could it happen that the NPD gets more than 10% today ?

[Middle-aged Europe]

How likely is it that this election will mirror the 1998 elections, when the DVU polled 6% before the vote, but then got 13% on election day. Could it happen that the NPD gets more than 10% today ?

Uh, nobody knows for sure (which was the case in 1998 too).

However, since I personally witnessed the DVU's campaign back in 1998 I'd say that the NPD will win less than 10% today. In 1998, the DVU was the only party to rent friggin' planes so that their party banners could be seen flying over the cities.

[DL]

Are there no exit polls in Sachsen-Anhalt? I don't se anything yet and its now past 18:00 local time

[DL]

oops, just realized we moved our clocks ahead an hour last week and they didn't in Europe so there is still 45 minutes to go!

[Tender Branson]

oops, just realized we moved our clocks ahead an hour last week and they didn't in Europe so there is still 45 minutes to go!

Yes, there should be an Exit Poll in about 15 minutes.

[Franzl]

Anyone else have a feeling the result is going to surprise us in some way? I have no idea in what way exactly...but it's just been so boring....and now turnout is a good deal higher than expected, that something unusual wouldn't surprise me.

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, I suppose some other party than CDU could be first. Don't know if it is the Left or the SPD though. Maybe my prediction that the SPD will be ahead of the Left was incorrect, because the Left did much better than the SPD in recent elections in the state. But we'll see ...

[Franzl]

Yeah, I suppose some other party than CDU could be first. Don't know if it is the Left or the SPD though. Maybe my prediction that the SPD will be ahead of the Left was incorrect, because the Left did much better than the SPD in recent elections in the state. But we'll see ...

Sachsen-Anhalt is fun to watch for me even though it's not really very interesting. Parties in the state are simply so close together (the CDU is a left-wing joke in reality) that I don't care who ends up winning.

But elections are still always fun

[Tender Branson]

Here's a live-stream, if someone wants to watch:

http://www.ardmediathek.de/ard/servlet/content/3517136?documentId=6673918

[Tender Branson]

And here's another live-stream by ZDF (they have different projections):

http://www.zdf.de/ZDFmediathek/beitrag/live/1280160/Landtagswahl-2011-in-Sachsen-Anhalt#/beitrag/livevideo/1280160/Landtagswahl-2011-in-Sachsen-Anhalt

[Middle-aged Europe]

ARD exit poll

CDU 33.0%
Left 23.5%
SPD 21.5%
Greens 7.0%
NPD 4.5%
FDP 3.5%

[Tender Branson]

18:00 Exit Poll (ZDF):

32.5% CDU
23.5% Left
21.5% SPD
6.5% Greens
4.5% NPD
4.0% FDP
3.0% FW
4.5% Others

Hmm, just what the polls predicted ...

[Tender Branson]

Meh, boring ...

[Franzl]

That's almost a surprise itself....the fact that there's absolutely nothing surprising

[Middle-aged Europe]

Hey, maybe the SPD will flip-flop on their promise not to elect a Left minister-president.

But yeah, seems like the CDU/SPD coalition was re-elected.

[Tender Branson]

Well, not to make any conclusions, but the result of the FDP should be repeated next week in BW !

[Franzl]

The FDP getting thrown out really doesn't matter much. Pleased the Nazis didn't get in.