2011 State Elections in Germany

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ah yes, Halle III... contains most of the eastern half of the city. Among other things, that's there the university is located, and lots of theaters, the opera house etc. What do you expect from a bunch of university students and artists.

Party-list vote for the Greens in some of the quarters in Halle III
Stadtteil Paulusviertel 29.80%
Stadtteil Giebichenstein 27.75%
Stadtteil Nördliche Innenstadt 25.87%
Stadtteil Altstadt 25.06%

Greens became the strongest party in all of these quarters, with the CDU always in 2nd place. Also some high numbers for the Pirate Party and low numbers for the NPD there.

Notable precinct in the Paulusviertel: 38.204.20403
Greens 36.66%
CDU 21.30%
SPD 16.70%
Left 13.90%
Pirate Party 4.71%
FDP 3.36%
Free Voters 1.57%
Animal Protection Party 1.01%
NPD 0.34%

I guess that's the highest state-wide precinct result for the Greens (and possibly also the lowest for the NPD state-wide).

http://ris.halle.de/wahl2011/zweitstimme/stadtteilewahlbezirke/wahl.html

[Middle-aged Europe]

2563 of 2572 precincts counted

CDU 32.5%
Left 23.6%
SPD 21.5%
Greens 7.1%

NPD 4.6%
FDP 3.9%
Free Voters 2.8%
Animal Protection Party 1.6%
Pirate Party 1.4%
Others below 1%


And it seems like SPD lead candidate Jens Bullerjahn will the only directly elected SPD representative in the state parliament (three for the Left, the remaining seats CDU).

[Franzl]

Well....despite the generally boring election, I'm very very happy the Nazis didn't get in. I was worried there for a while.

[Franzl]

Preliminary final result:

CDU 32.5
Linke 23.7
SPD 21.5
Grüne 7.1
NPD 4.6
FDP 3.9

others 6.8

[minionofmidas]

Turnout 51.2%. So was higher in the late reporting precincts (with likely an above-average urban share) than the earlier ones.

CDU 41 (+1)
Left 29 (+3)
SPD 26 (+2)
Greens 9 (+9)
FDP 0 (-7)

total 105 (+8)

Direct seats: CDU 41 (+1), Left 3 (0), SPD 1 (-1)

Left: Salzwedel, Magdeburg I (N), Halle I (W)
Left leading in list vote: Magdeburg I, Halle I, IV (S)
SPD: Eisleben
SPD leading in list vote: nowhere

[minionofmidas]

Now that traffic is down, the election website is up again. Pretty maps, aren't they? There's also one for the FDP, but none for the NPD.

[Tender Branson]

The exit poll by Infratest dimap wasn't posted yet, so here it is:

Approval Rating of the CDU/SPD government ?

48% Approve
50% Disapprove

Who should govern Sachsen-Anhalt after the election ?

56% CDU/SPD should continue to govern
32% Left-SPD should govern

Which coalition is good for Sachsen-Anhalt ?

62% CDU/SPD
36% Left/SPD
34% Left/SPD/Greens

SPD-voters only (Which coalition is good for Sachsen-Anhalt ?)

72% CDU/SPD
37% Left/SPD
34% Left/SPD/Greens

Direct vote for Governor:

46% Bullerjahn (SPD, probably getting lots of support from Left and Green voters)
36% Haseloff (CDU)

Most important issues in Sachsen-Anhalt:

65% Unemployment
25% Education
15% Economy

Which issue was important for your vote ?

63% Education policy
59% Employment policy
41% Energy- and Nuclear policy

Which party do you think has the best Nuclear policy ?

34% Greens
19% CDU
17% SPD

Nuclear accident like in Japan possible in Germany ?

61% Yes
38% No

Do you think Germany should abandon nuclear energy ?

74% Yes
24% No

Voting preferences of unemployed:



Voting preferences of people on welfare:



Voting preferences of workers:



Voting preferences of men:



Voting preferences of women:

[Tender Branson]

Town maps:

Turnout



1st preference vote winners (district votes)



2nd preference vote winners (party list)



CDU vote



Left vote



SPD vote



FDP vote



Green vote

[Tender Branson]

Interesting fact:

If Baden-Württemberg next week would vote like Sachsen-Anhalt (with proportional wins and losses in each party), the results would be

39.7% CDU
25.3% SPD
23.4% Greens
  6.1% FDP
  3.0% Left

48.7%-45.8% majority for SPD-Greens.

[Insula Dei]

To look at it from the bright side: unless I'm mistaken this is a +11 gain for the Red-Greens against -6 for the CDU-FDP. So the National Government Coalition lost seats while the total numbers of seats increased. In percentage points it's even clearer: +3,4 vs. -6,6. That's trending in the right direction, I'd say.

[/hackery about a subject I know next to nothing about]

[Tender Branson]

Times are getting rough for CDU-FDP.

New Forsa poll out today:

33%  (-3) CDU/CSU
25%  (-1) SPD
20% (+2) Greens
  9%  (nc) Left
  5%  (nc) FDP
  8% (+2) Others

[Tender Branson]

"We choose Nuclear Energy"

[Хahar 🤔]

The nuclear fearmongering is getting rather ridiculous.

[Hans-im-Glück]

The nuclear fearmongering is getting rather ridiculous.

I find the nuclear recklessness ridiculous.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It's not only Fukushima itself, it's also the CDU's recent flip-flop on nuclear energy.

According to the same Forsa poll, 71% think that the CDU's new course of action is merely an electoral ploy. 50% say that Angela Merkel is believable/credible as a politician, a drop by 18 points.

If worst comes to worst, the government has failed to win over opponents of nuclear energy, while rejecting nuclear supporters at the same time. In any case, Merkel made her choice and she's gotta stick to it at least till this sunday's elections.

[Tender Branson]

Am I right when I say that CDU-FDP would still be favored in a tied situation, because of the electoral law that would give the CDU a lot of Überhangmandate ?

No. In Baden-Württemberg it gives Ausgleichsmadate. When the CDU get 10 Überhangmandate, the other parties get 10 mandates more.

This article says something else:

http://www.taz.de/1/politik/schwerpunkt-wahl-in-baden-wuerttemberg/artikel/1/wahlrecht-koennte-der-cdu-helfen/

Even though the CDU gets Überhangmandate and the other parties therefore get Ausgleichsmandate, the CDU is still much more favored.

In 2006, the CDU won 44.2% of the vote, but got 49.6% of the seats, despite all the Ausgleichsmandate for the other parties.

This means the CDU still has a big structural advantage going into this election.

[Middle-aged Europe]

According to this site, some of the main problems with the state's electoral system have been fixed since 2006:

http://www.wahlrecht.de/systemfehler/kritik-bawue.html

So a result like last time is apparently less likely now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I understand that it's an issue that many feel strongly about, but if we could please keep the nuclear discussion the IGD board?

[Tender Branson]

I understand that it's an issue that many feel strongly about, but if we could please keep the nuclear discussion the IGD board?

That will probably not be possible, because nuclear energy is an integral part of this state election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I understand that it's an issue that many feel strongly about, but if we could please keep the nuclear discussion the IGD board?

That will probably not be possible, because nuclear energy is an integral part of this state election.

In very general terms yes, but my remark was not general.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Am I right when I say that CDU-FDP would still be favored in a tied situation, because of the electoral law that would give the CDU a lot of Überhangmandate ?

No. In Baden-Württemberg it gives Ausgleichsmadate. When the CDU get 10 Überhangmandate, the other parties get 10 mandates more.

This article says something else:

http://www.taz.de/1/politik/schwerpunkt-wahl-in-baden-wuerttemberg/artikel/1/wahlrecht-koennte-der-cdu-helfen/

Even though the CDU gets Überhangmandate and the other parties therefore get Ausgleichsmandate, the CDU is still much more favored.

In 2006, the CDU won 44.2% of the vote, but got 49.6% of the seats, despite all the Ausgleichsmandate for the other parties.

This means the CDU still has a big structural advantage going into this election.

The Election Law of 2011 isn't the same from 2006. If it is a very close victory of Red-Green it is possible that Black-Yellow can have 1 mandate more. But in this election I don't see this. The CDU won't win all Constituencies. The SPD will win some in Indusrial cities like Mannheim and the Greens will win in University Cities like Freiburg and Tübingen.

[Tender Branson]

Am I right when I say that CDU-FDP would still be favored in a tied situation, because of the electoral law that would give the CDU a lot of Überhangmandate ?

No. In Baden-Württemberg it gives Ausgleichsmadate. When the CDU get 10 Überhangmandate, the other parties get 10 mandates more.

This article says something else:

http://www.taz.de/1/politik/schwerpunkt-wahl-in-baden-wuerttemberg/artikel/1/wahlrecht-koennte-der-cdu-helfen/

Even though the CDU gets Überhangmandate and the other parties therefore get Ausgleichsmandate, the CDU is still much more favored.

In 2006, the CDU won 44.2% of the vote, but got 49.6% of the seats, despite all the Ausgleichsmandate for the other parties.

This means the CDU still has a big structural advantage going into this election.

The Election Law of 2011 isn't the same from 2006. If it is a very close victory of Red-Green it is possible that Black-Yellow can have 1 mandate more. But in this election I don't see this. The CDU won't win all Constituencies. The SPD will win some in Indusrial cities like Mannheim and the Greens will win in University Cities like Freiburg and Tübingen.

What are the districts that can actually be won by the Greens this time ?

I think we need districts where the Greens had at least 15% last time and where the CDU had less than or around 40% support. This includes:

Ulm
Konstanz
Reutlingen
Stuttgart II
Stuttgart IV
Ludwigsburg
Karlsruhe I
Karlsruhe II
Mannheim II

But in order to win, I think only districts where the Greens had more than 20% in 2006 and the CDU less than 40% can be considered swing districts. This includes:

Freiburg I
Freiburg II
Tübingen
Stuttgart I
Heidelberg

For comparison purposes:

 

The SPD could win Mannheim I again and maybe a few others.

[minionofmidas]

It's not only Fukushima itself, it's also the CDU's recent flip-flop on nuclear energy.

To quote the Thuringian Landtag FDP leader, some bloke called Uwe Barth:
"If you make a political decision like the extension of the nuclear power plants, you have to stick to it in difficult times as well. Otherwise the voter will rightly assume that the [original] decision was not well thought through. I can understand why many of our voters stayed at home this sunday".

[Tender Branson]

New Baden-Württemberg poll by Forsa/Stern/RTL:

38%    [-6.2] CDU
24% [+12.3] Greens
24%    [-1.2] SPD
  5%    [-5.7] FDP
  4%   [+0.9] Left
  5%    [-0.1] Others

48-43 majority for Greens-SPD or SPD-Greens.

Stuttgart-21:

46% Support
43% Oppose

In Stuttgart only:

43% Support
49% Oppose

Gov. Mappus (CDU) Approval Rating:

27% Approve
41% Disapprove
27% Neither Approve nor Disapprove

Direct vote for Governor:

25% Mappus (CDU)
22% Schmid (SPD)
20% Kretschmann (Greens)

http://www.presseportal.de/pm/21391/2013680/gruner_jahr_stern_de

[Hans-im-Glück]

Germany's Economics Minister Rainer Brüderle (FDP), said in a speech to the BDI industry association, the turn of the government in the Nuclear politics was  made only because the elections in Baden-Württemberg.

http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article12941619/Bruederle-begruendet-Atom-Moratorium-mit-Wahlkampf.html

After this speech I think there is no question who will win the election.