2011 State Elections in Germany

[republicanism]

Wow. So it looks like the SPD/Greens are on track to win the 2013 elections?

Way to early to say.

Any reason why Germany is moving left recently compared to itself from 2005 or all the other countries in Europe lately?

Actually, most of what the center-left has gained since the 2009 elections is due to a a very strong, strange and hyperbolic trend towards the Greens.
A trend, by the way, that in that dimension I do not buy.
There is no chance Greens get 20% or even more in a federal election in Germany. But they may have a real shot for 15-17%, which would still be an incredible result.

Greenies somehow managed to become a collective pool for disaffected voters both from the center-right and the center-left. And they all feel quite comfortable with voting Green (or at least telling the pollsters to do so), methinks.
The true, old Green core base is not really that happy about this trend, btw.

The SPD on the other hand, though still in very bad shape, slowly recovers from the disaster of 2009, and seems to win back a bit of it's base that didn't vote in 2009. And a bit from the Leftist party i guess.
That's normalization mostly, because as run-down as the party may be, we still do better than 23% in a normal year.

[republicanism]

New poll for Berlin, by Infratest dimap. In brackets the change from the last Infratest dimap poll that was held in July.

SPD 31 (+2)
CDU 22 (-1)
Green 22 (-2)
Left 12 (-2)
FDP 4 (+1)
Others 9 (+2) --> among them the Pirates Party with 3%

Government (SPD, Left): 43 (--)
Opposition (CDU, Greens): 44 (-3)


In general a positive trend for major Klaus Wowereit and his government.

[DL]

is it fair to say that the SPD would rather form a new coalition with the Greens that continue to govern with the Left party?

[Middle-aged Europe]

is it fair to say that the SPD would rather form a new coalition with the Greens that continue to govern with the Left party?

Well, the SPD already had the same choice after the last election and they picked the Left.

If Wowereit really thought that he could get more out of a SPD/Green coalition politically, he'd do it. Just saying that he didn't arrive at that conclusion back in 2006. We'll see what happens after this election... but SPD/Left would need to lose its majority first, I suppose.

[DL]

I suppose that one reason why the SPD might prefer a coalition with the Left party (if that is still an option) is that the Left party is so much weaker than the Greens. In a Red/Red coalition, the SPD could probably grab three-quarters of the cabinet seats. In a Red/Green government, the Greens would probably demand and expect close to half of the portfolios.

[Tender Branson]

Kramp-Karrenbauer elected Saarland premier

The small industrial state of Saarland has a new premier after Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer of the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) was elected on Wednesday to lead the unwieldy coalition government.



The 48-year-old will succeed her party colleague Peter Müller, who in January announced his retirement from top-level politics.

Though her election was not unexpected, Kramp-Karrenbauer will have quite a task keeping the coalition held together. Though German media has criticized her as dull, she has been praised for her tours through Saarland in which she listens to local citizens’ complaints.

Kramp-Karrenbauer had to go through two rounds of voting by members of the state parliament to get the required majority. The centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) put up stiff opposition to Kramp-Karrenbauer during the first round of voting with its own candidate, Heiko Maas.

Saarland is governed by an unusual coalition of the CDU, the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) and the environmentalist Greens.

Kramp-Karrenbauer has served in numerous high posts in the state government, including stints as education and interior minister.

http://www.thelocal.de/national/20110810-36883.html

[Middle-aged Europe]

The 48-year-old will succeed her party colleague Peter Müller, who in January announced his retirement from top-level politics.

Because he's about to enter top-level judiciary...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Seems like the Schleswig-Holsteinian CDU just lost their candidate for the state election in May 2012.

Then again, how many politicians would actually say no to the advances of a 16-year-old?  

[Franzl]

Realistically, how many people, whether politician or not, would?

[republicanism]

I suppose that one reason why the SPD might prefer a coalition with the Left party (if that is still an option) is that the Left party is so much weaker than the Greens. In a Red/Red coalition, the SPD could probably grab three-quarters of the cabinet seats. In a Red/Green government, the Greens would probably demand and expect close to half of the portfolios.

Right. Also, the Leftist party was very disciplined and loyal in the last 10 years and almost blindly supported the SPD politics. One of the more left-wing SPD politics in the Republic, though.

The Berlin Greens on the other hand have near to no government experience at all, and if they really get a result as good as predicted, will go into negotiations with high expectations.

Especially when it comes to transport policy, infrastructure, basically everything there things have to be build, the Greenies get angry, while the Leftist party doesn't care to much as it has its focus on other policies.

[Tender Branson]

Seems like the Schleswig-Holsteinian CDU just lost their candidate for the state election in May 2012.

Then again, how many politicians would actually say no to the advances of a 16-year-old?  

Looks like another SPD win then ...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Details, details.

[Tender Branson]

Details, details.

Christian von Boetticher, frontrunner for the CDU Schleswig- Holstein has handed in his resignation today after it became known that he had a relationship with a 16-year old girl in early 2010. Even though such a relationship is legal in Germany, the party leadership put an enormous amount of pressure onto Boetticher and then he resigned today.

http://www.welt.de/Eil/article13544408/Boetticher-legt-CDU-Landesvorsitz-und-Spitzenkandidatur-nieder.html

[Middle-aged Europe]

Details, details.

Christian von Boetticher, frontrunner for the CDU Schleswig- Holstein has handed in his resignation today after it became known that he had a relationship with a 16-year old girl in early 2010. Even though such a relationship is legal in Germany, the party leadership put an enormous amount of pressure onto Boetticher and then he resigned today.

http://www.welt.de/Eil/article13544408/Boetticher-legt-CDU-Landesvorsitz-und-Spitzenkandidatur-nieder.html

Well, it was relatively dumb thing to do... especially when you've got further plans for your political career. Gotta set priorities.

[Tender Branson]

New Mecklenburg-Vorpommern poll:



Direct vote for Governor:

[minionofmidas]

Details, details.

Christian von Boetticher, frontrunner for the CDU Schleswig- Holstein has handed in his resignation today after it became known that he had a relationship with a 16-year old girl in early 2010. Even though such a relationship is legal in Germany, the party leadership put an enormous amount of pressure onto Boetticher and then he resigned today.

http://www.welt.de/Eil/article13544408/Boetticher-legt-CDU-Landesvorsitz-und-Spitzenkandidatur-nieder.html

Well, it was relatively dumb thing to do... especially when you've got further plans for your political career. Gotta set priorities.

And he did. The right ones, too.

Ah, Lorenz Caffier. Last of the Recorders.

[Tender Branson]

First Schleswig-Holstein poll after the Boetticher scandal, by Forsa:

32%  (+7) SPD
30%   (-2) CDU
19%  (+7) Greens
  4%   (-2) Left
  4%   (nc) SSW
  4% (-11) FDP
  7%  (+1) Others

[MaxQue]

First Schleswig-Holstein poll after the Boetticher scandal, by Forsa:

32%  (+7) SPD
30%   (-2) CDU
19%  (+7) Greens
  4%   (-2) Left
  4%   (nc) SSW
  4% (-11) FDP
  7%  (+1) Others

Does they have a 5% threshold, or it is different?

[Tender Branson]

First Schleswig-Holstein poll after the Boetticher scandal, by Forsa:

32%  (+7) SPD
30%   (-2) CDU
19%  (+7) Greens
  4%   (-2) Left
  4%   (nc) SSW
  4% (-11) FDP
  7%  (+1) Others

Does they have a 5% threshold, or it is different?

Yes, SH has a 5% threshold - except for the SSW, which is the party of the Danish minority in SH. The SSW is excluded from the threshold and they will always get at least 1 MP.

[republicanism]

So hopefully six month from now, my home state will be red again.
Well, red and green, with way to much green for my taste. But if the nationwide trend holds, the Greens will be down to 15% or so by then, and SPD up to 35%.

[MaxQue]

First Schleswig-Holstein poll after the Boetticher scandal, by Forsa:

32%  (+7) SPD
30%   (-2) CDU
19%  (+7) Greens
  4%   (-2) Left
  4%   (nc) SSW
  4% (-11) FDP
  7%  (+1) Others

Does they have a 5% threshold, or it is different?

Yes, SH has a 5% threshold - except for the SSW, which is the party of the Danish minority in SH. The SSW is excluded from the threshold and they will always get at least 1 MP.

? Nobody sued than the law was clearly unfair because it gives a party an advantage over the other ones?

[republicanism]

? Nobody sued than the law was clearly unfair because it gives a party an advantage over the other ones?

No, since this law is based on an Danish-German agreement on protection on minorities.

There is an equivalent on the Danish side, called "Schleswigsche Partei", that represents the German minoprity and enjoys the same privileges. Since there are much less self-identified Germans on the Danish side than Danish on the German side, that party is completely irrelevant except for local elections in a few Danish municipalities near the border.

But during the last years, CDU and FDP in Schleswig-Holstein actually get a bit grumpy from time to time, because Germans who have no connections to Denmark at all are increasingly voting for the SSW. In the state elections 2009, the SSW gained about 70.000 votes, while there are less then 20.000 Danish speakers in all of Schleswig-Holstein. The SSW even got 2-3% of the vote in the South and East of Schleswig-Holstein, and there you find not more Danish speakers than in, say, Bavaria. It has become "hip" to vote for the SSW among some people, as they usually take a moderate stand and focus on local and regional issues.
 
And as the SSW is, at least on the state level (not so much on the local level), a loyal auxiliary for the center-left, i.e. SPD and Greens, it is in fact kind of unfair, from a center-right perspective.

But the law won't be changed in the near future.

[Franzl]

So hopefully six month from now, my home state will be red again.
Well, red and green, with way to much green for my taste. But if the nationwide trend holds, the Greens will be down to 15% or so by then, and SPD up to 35%.

For some reason S-W just should be red. Fits the way I picture the state

I imagine Hesse will turn red following the next election (unless something genuinely changes the national political perspective). We just got lucky that Ypsilanti f**ked up so badly. Otherwise there's no way Koch would have been re-elected.

Oh well....as it's quite certain that I'm moving to Bavaria in a few weeks.....I guess I don't need to worry about the red wave too much

[BenNebbich]

SSW

May I add that have no guarantee for at least one seat. they need the votes for one seat and then they get it.

it's quite a difference.

B.N.

[Tender Branson]

2 new (and very interesting) polls today:

Baden-Württemberg



Approval Rating of Governor Kretschmann (Greens):



62% Approve
26% Disapprove



...

Berlin

36% SPD
23% CDU
22% Greens
  8% Left