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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Maryland  (Read 23848 times)
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BRTD
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« on: November 08, 2010, 02:39:37 pm »
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Do you think it's possible the Democrats in Maryland will try to oust Harris anyway despite him winning? A bunch of things to consider:

1-There are plenty of Democrats on the Eastern Shore and in the state legislature.
2-Drawing the seat to be D+2 instead of R+13 isn't that hard.
3-Harris still has the Eastern Shore vs. Baltimore suburbs rivalry that won't go away.
4-Harris is not simply a mainstream conservative, he is an O'Donnell/Angle type. He was ranked by some article as the single most conservative member of the Maryland Senate, and frequently was on the losing side of votes where he was the only one voting against it (I suspect there will be similar votes in the House with him too, though they'll be more like 420-8 instead of one of course.)
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« Reply #1 on: November 08, 2010, 02:53:51 pm »
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If he's so unlikable, and I believe he is, they'll put his hometown north of Baltimore into Bartlett's or Ruppersberger's district to strand him while leaving MD-1 a strongly Republican district. I don't think they're going to go the lengths needed for a 7-1 map.
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« Reply #2 on: November 08, 2010, 03:04:56 pm »
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You could probably draw a 7-1 map significantly less ugly than the current map.
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« Reply #3 on: November 08, 2010, 07:03:14 pm »
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If he's so unlikable, and I believe he is, they'll put his hometown north of Baltimore into Bartlett's or Ruppersberger's district to strand him while leaving MD-1 a strongly Republican district. I don't think they're going to go the lengths needed for a 7-1 map.

Does that really matter, though? Harris can still run in the 1st.
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« Reply #4 on: November 10, 2010, 02:19:33 am »
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Here is my 7-1 gerrymander for MD. The 1st is 54-44 Mccain, as opposed to 58-40 in it's current shape. So this could possibly be a 8-0 map. I also drew 2 AA districts.
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« Reply #5 on: November 10, 2010, 02:31:26 am »
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Here is my 7-1 gerrymander for MD. The 1st is 54-44 Mccain, as opposed to 58-40 in it's current shape. So this could possibly be a 8-0 map. I also drew 2 AA districts.

It actually looks nicer than the current map lol
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« Reply #6 on: November 10, 2010, 04:34:28 am »
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It looks bearable only as long as you ignore where the population in the two western districts is.
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« Reply #7 on: November 12, 2010, 11:19:39 am »
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I wonder if they are more likely to go after Bartlett or Harris?  It might be better for them to just dump all of the GOP suburbs of Baltimore into Harris's district and drop half of Montgomery County on Bartlett, who will likely retire soon anyway.
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« Reply #8 on: November 14, 2010, 02:38:09 pm »
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They will likely add parts of Annapolis into Harris' district.  This will net roughly an extra 30,000 Democrats into the district and they will also likely put more conservative parts of the district into Congressman Ruppersberger's district.  I spoke to many delegates and many state Senators who plan to pursue this idea.
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« Reply #9 on: November 14, 2010, 03:19:41 pm »
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They will likely add parts of Annapolis into Harris' district.  This will net roughly an extra 30,000 Democrats into the district and they will also likely put more conservative parts of the district into Congressman Ruppersberger's district.  I spoke to many delegates and many state Senators who plan to pursue this idea.

heck, they might just drag part of his district into SE Baltimore if they want to get it closer to 50/50.  The only problem with that however is that the Democrats already have 3 incumbents in the Baltimore area, which means you'd have to draw some ugly fingering in order to make to population totals work.
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« Reply #10 on: November 14, 2010, 03:24:47 pm »
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They will likely add parts of Annapolis into Harris' district.  This will net roughly an extra 30,000 Democrats into the district and they will also likely put more conservative parts of the district into Congressman Ruppersberger's district.  I spoke to many delegates and many state Senators who plan to pursue this idea.

heck, they might just drag part of his district into SE Baltimore if they want to get it closer to 50/50.  The only problem with that however is that the Democrats already have 3 incumbents in the Baltimore area, which means you'd have to draw some ugly fingering in order to make to population totals work.

There are some fears that may potentially weaken Democratic incumbents however.
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« Reply #11 on: November 14, 2010, 04:09:27 pm »
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They will likely add parts of Annapolis into Harris' district.  This will net roughly an extra 30,000 Democrats into the district and they will also likely put more conservative parts of the district into Congressman Ruppersberger's district.  I spoke to many delegates and many state Senators who plan to pursue this idea.

So they must want Kratovil back in 2012.  I assume then that they are planning to continue conceding the Barlett district?
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« Reply #12 on: November 14, 2010, 04:55:07 pm »
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They will likely add parts of Annapolis into Harris' district.  This will net roughly an extra 30,000 Democrats into the district and they will also likely put more conservative parts of the district into Congressman Ruppersberger's district.  I spoke to many delegates and many state Senators who plan to pursue this idea.

heck, they might just drag part of his district into SE Baltimore if they want to get it closer to 50/50.  The only problem with that however is that the Democrats already have 3 incumbents in the Baltimore area, which means you'd have to draw some ugly fingering in order to make to population totals work.

There are some fears that may potentially weaken Democratic incumbents however.

Not really.  You can draw the 6th as a 63-64% McCain district, and that makes the rest of the state like 67% Obama or something, which leaves plenty of Democratic voters to shore up the 2nd and 3rd districts.  In fact, such a map would probably leave them considerably safer as it would drag the 3rd into the outer DC Suburbs as opposed to the Conservative Baltimore ones.
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« Reply #13 on: November 14, 2010, 05:21:53 pm »
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How black is the green district in this map?  Even if the Dems could do this, I doubt that they will.
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« Reply #14 on: November 14, 2010, 05:41:43 pm »
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How black is the green district in this map?  Even if the Dems could do this, I doubt that they will.

The Green district is 51% Black and the Yellow district is also 51% black. The rest of the districts are all about the same demographically(except the Montgomery County districts) and voted about the same for Obama. About 62-37 for all of them except 60-38 for the Purple district. The Green district is 70% Obama and the Yellow district is 74% Obama. And the 1st is 54-44 Mccain but that is less Republican than the current district.

This is the "greedy" map though. Democrats can make one very safe GOP district and shore up the rest of the 7 districts.
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« Reply #15 on: November 14, 2010, 06:20:39 pm »
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How black is the green district in this map?  Even if the Dems could do this, I doubt that they will.

The Green district is 51% Black and the Yellow district is also 51% black. The rest of the districts are all about the same demographically(except the Montgomery County districts) and voted about the same for Obama. About 62-37 for all of them except 60-38 for the Purple district. The Green district is 70% Obama and the Yellow district is 74% Obama. And the 1st is 54-44 Mccain but that is less Republican than the current district.

This is the "greedy" map though. Democrats can make one very safe GOP district and shore up the rest of the 7 districts.

51% black districts will not be acceptable to the black representatives, I don't think.
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« Reply #16 on: November 14, 2010, 06:53:08 pm »
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How black is the green district in this map?  Even if the Dems could do this, I doubt that they will.

The Green district is 51% Black and the Yellow district is also 51% black. The rest of the districts are all about the same demographically(except the Montgomery County districts) and voted about the same for Obama. About 62-37 for all of them except 60-38 for the Purple district. The Green district is 70% Obama and the Yellow district is 74% Obama. And the 1st is 54-44 Mccain but that is less Republican than the current district.

This is the "greedy" map though. Democrats can make one very safe GOP district and shore up the rest of the 7 districts.

51% black districts will not be acceptable to the black representatives, I don't think.

Why not? They are pretty safe districts. Maybe whoever ends up in the Green district might not like it so much, but they should be fine.
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« Reply #17 on: November 14, 2010, 07:04:18 pm »
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The Baltimore congressman was really unhappy with what happened to his district last time. Now if it is diluted down further, we shall see what happens. The issue is not whether the district would go GOP, but pressure in a primary.
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« Reply #18 on: November 14, 2010, 07:59:56 pm »
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Do you think it's possible the Democrats in Maryland will try to oust Harris anyway despite him winning? A bunch of things to consider:

1-There are plenty of Democrats on the Eastern Shore and in the state legislature.
2-Drawing the seat to be D+2 instead of R+13 isn't that hard.
3-Harris still has the Eastern Shore vs. Baltimore suburbs rivalry that won't go away.
4-Harris is not simply a mainstream conservative, he is an O'Donnell/Angle type. He was ranked by some article as the single most conservative member of the Maryland Senate, and frequently was on the losing side of votes where he was the only one voting against it (I suspect there will be similar votes in the House with him too, though they'll be more like 420-8 instead of one of course.)

If Harris is far-right, perhaps making his district more competitive could at least force him to be less extreme, even if he wouldn't lose. With MD-1 having a more Republican PVI than MD-2 or MD-3 is Democratic, would it be possible to make MD-1 more competitive without making Ruppersberger or Sarbanes at all vulnerable?
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« Reply #19 on: November 14, 2010, 09:09:25 pm »
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It may be that the state Dem party has made promises WRT Kratovil, but if all they are trying to do is make a 7th Dem district, then I still say it would be far better to dilute Van Hollen's 8th a bit in Montgomery county by having the 6th dive all the way down toward the border with DC and having the 8th shift NW to take in parts of Frederick and southern Washington counties.  You could make the 6th D+7 or so while still keeping the 8th at about D+13 or D+14, so I don't think Van Hollen would freak out.  Finally, wrap the 1st district around farther to the NW into Carroll, drop the Bay Bridge extension to maintain population and make it the district you forfeit to the GOP. 
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« Reply #20 on: November 14, 2010, 11:09:47 pm »
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You can dilute Van Hollen's seat without causing too much trouble. It's now a bit over-packed with Democrats because it was designed to oust liberal Republican Connie Morella. The old seat was like a D+10, and Van Hollen would have no problem in such a seat now.
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« Reply #21 on: November 14, 2010, 11:25:29 pm »
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You can dilute Van Hollen's seat without causing too much trouble. It's now a bit over-packed with Democrats because it was designed to oust liberal Republican Connie Morella. The old seat was like a D+10, and Van Hollen would have no problem in such a seat now.

An 8-0 map seems a bit too risky to me, even though the MD Dems would probably love to retaliate for the PA and NC GOP gerrymandering that is coming up.  There's just too big a chance of 3 or 4 of them going down in a GOP wave that hits MD.  You would put the white Dems in the Baltimore area under a lot of stress.  I am simply arguing that they would do better to get a 7th D seat from western MD than from the Eastern Shore.
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« Reply #22 on: November 15, 2010, 02:13:42 am »
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You can dilute Van Hollen's seat without causing too much trouble. It's now a bit over-packed with Democrats because it was designed to oust liberal Republican Connie Morella. The old seat was like a D+10, and Van Hollen would have no problem in such a seat now.

An 8-0 map seems a bit too risky to me, even though the MD Dems would probably love to retaliate for the PA and NC GOP gerrymandering that is coming up.  There's just too big a chance of 3 or 4 of them going down in a GOP wave that hits MD.  You would put the white Dems in the Baltimore area under a lot of stress.  I am simply arguing that they would do better to get a 7th D seat from western MD than from the Eastern Shore.

Why?  The Eastern Shore is far less Republican than the Panhandle, and putting Carrol County into a Democratic-district would be a waste of Liberal Votes.  You can Draw a 1st District that takes the Eastern Shore (up to Cecil County), Annapolis, and some White parts of Baltimore and wind up with a district that's about 55% Obama and shouldn't be hard for an Eastern-Shore Democrat to hold.  Every other District is at least 64% Democrat aside from the 6th, which takes the Panhandle (minus Hagerstown and Frederick), Carrol County, the Northern part of Baltimore county, Hartford, and Cecil, and is 63% McCain.

The 7th takes most of Baltimore, along with some Northern and Eastern Suburbs, and is 58% Black, the 4th takes inner PGC, along with Charles, Calvert, and most of St. Mary's (Hoyer lives in the northern part of St. Mary's) and is 57% Black.
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« Reply #23 on: November 15, 2010, 02:28:52 am »
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You can dilute Van Hollen's seat without causing too much trouble. It's now a bit over-packed with Democrats because it was designed to oust liberal Republican Connie Morella. The old seat was like a D+10, and Van Hollen would have no problem in such a seat now.

An 8-0 map seems a bit too risky to me, even though the MD Dems would probably love to retaliate for the PA and NC GOP gerrymandering that is coming up.  There's just too big a chance of 3 or 4 of them going down in a GOP wave that hits MD.  You would put the white Dems in the Baltimore area under a lot of stress.  I am simply arguing that they would do better to get a 7th D seat from western MD than from the Eastern Shore.

Why?  The Eastern Shore is far less Republican than the Panhandle, and putting Carrol County into a Democratic-district would be a waste of Liberal Votes.  You can Draw a 1st District that takes the Eastern Shore (up to Cecil County), Annapolis, and some White parts of Baltimore and wind up with a district that's about 55% Obama and shouldn't be hard for an Eastern-Shore Democrat to hold.  Every other District is at least 64% Democrat aside from the 6th, which takes the Panhandle (minus Hagerstown and Frederick), Carrol County, the Northern part of Baltimore county, Hartford, and Cecil, and is 63% McCain.

The 7th takes most of Baltimore, along with some Northern and Eastern Suburbs, and is 58% Black, the 4th takes inner PGC, along with Charles, Calvert, and most of St. Mary's (Hoyer lives in the northern part of St. Mary's) and is 57% Black.

Basically because Montgomery County has many more democratic voters than anything up against the Bay except for Baltimore City which is anchored in the African-American majority district.  I suppose you could pull the 1st into PG and/or Montgomery, but why not just drop the 6th down to the border with DC?  Van Hollen's district is D+24.  He can take a hit from NW MD more easily than any of the white Baltimore Dems can take a hit from more conservative suburbs.  This has been noted before in other discussions of redistricting. 
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« Reply #24 on: January 07, 2011, 11:17:19 pm »
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So I decided to gerrymander Maryland to try to get 3 Republican districts.  This one was fun:



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