US House Redistricting: Maryland

[Platypus]

This one wasn't disgusting: (hint hint)

Non-Partisan:



CD1 (Blue): -46; 78.0% White; 57.0% McCain
CD2 (Orange): +56; 64.7% White; 54.2% Obama
CD3 (Lime): -62; 55.8% Black; 79.4% Obama
CD4 (Red) +9; 61.3% Black; 88.8% Obama
CD5 (Yellow): +58; 59.9% White; 59.0% Obama
CD6 (Green): +21; 79.3% White; 53.0% McCain
CD7 (Black): -42; 55.1% White; 60.2% Obama
CD8 (Violet): -4; 49.9% White plurality; 73.1% Obama

Summary:

2 strong majority (55%+) Black districts
1 majority-minority district, white plurality
5 strong majority (55%+) White districts
4 safe democrat (60%+ Obama) districts
1 strong democrat (55%+ Obama) district
1 lean democrat (50%+ Obama) district
1 lean republican (50%+ McCain) district
1 strong republican (55%+ McCain) district

Max. deviation 68/100, average deviation 38.500/50.000, all districts truly contiguous, 4 counties split.

Northeastern A.A. County shouldn't be attached to Baltimore City

I fiddled around with a lot of alternatives for CD-2/CD-3, and this was the only way I could get good population equality and maintain Baltimore in one CD with a land link to the necessary extra people :/

I also realised that I was using total people, not VAP, for the ethnic groups; the two black districts remain black but the majority-minority district slips into a white majority.

[jimrtex]

Does anyone feel like they need a shower?

This whole redistricting process is unclean and f'ed up. Not sure whether MD and TN are where the deals need to be made. What sort of map will be coming out of Ohio? Pennsylvania? Maybe the Dems feel they need to retaliate for that? Let's just have a constitutional convention or something, take redistricting out of the hands of the pigs, and be done with it.

Wait, has the Ohio map been released? Did they create a Columbus district? If not, then the MD dems should go for the juggular and severe it with one bite. 8-0 map is in order, I think.

The GOP ceded Columbus. Their map is a still massive cf however. All the Pubbies here agree on that one.    Among other things, they chopped Toledo in half.  But there is just so much more. My map looks like a veritable non partisan plan in comparison. Check out the Ohio thread, and you shall see.

The Republican plan really isn't so much partisan, as it is incumbent protection, which is hard to do when you have 13 of 18 seats and the state is losing two districts.  If Kaptur and Kucinich didn't live so close to each other it wouldn't have been so easy to pair them.

And 13/18 x 16 does equal 12 (so it keeps the same partisan balance).

[timothyinMD]

This one wasn't disgusting: (hint hint)

Non-Partisan:



CD1 (Blue): -46; 78.0% White; 57.0% McCain
CD2 (Orange): +56; 64.7% White; 54.2% Obama
CD3 (Lime): -62; 55.8% Black; 79.4% Obama
CD4 (Red) +9; 61.3% Black; 88.8% Obama
CD5 (Yellow): +58; 59.9% White; 59.0% Obama
CD6 (Green): +21; 79.3% White; 53.0% McCain
CD7 (Black): -42; 55.1% White; 60.2% Obama
CD8 (Violet): -4; 49.9% White plurality; 73.1% Obama

Summary:

2 strong majority (55%+) Black districts
1 majority-minority district, white plurality
5 strong majority (55%+) White districts
4 safe democrat (60%+ Obama) districts
1 strong democrat (55%+ Obama) district
1 lean democrat (50%+ Obama) district
1 lean republican (50%+ McCain) district
1 strong republican (55%+ McCain) district

Max. deviation 68/100, average deviation 38.500/50.000, all districts truly contiguous, 4 counties split.

Northeastern A.A. County shouldn't be attached to Baltimore City

I fiddled around with a lot of alternatives for CD-2/CD-3, and this was the only way I could get good population equality and maintain Baltimore in one CD with a land link to the necessary extra people :/

I also realised that I was using total people, not VAP, for the ethnic groups; the two black districts remain black but the majority-minority district slips into a white majority.

This is the true "non-partisan" map.  One county split. No strangely shaped districts

[muon2]

This is the true "non-partisan" map.  One county split. No strangely shaped districts

I'm not sure I follow why this is more "non-partisan". I also don't follow your split analysis. I count 9 county splits in four counties, using the rule that districts entirely within a county are not a split piece. That's the same number of splits in my map.

[timothyinMD]

Yup, by one county split, I meant that Anne Arundel county is the only one with less than the pop of a one district to be split

[muon2]

Yup, by one county split, I meant that Anne Arundel county is the only one with less than the pop of a one district to be split

OK, but one should count the number of fragments in the larger counties, too. A plan should try to minimize those as well.

That still leaves the question as to what makes your plan "true non-partisan". I'm just curious as to the factors you applied to that standard.

[Platypus]

For me, it has to do four things:

1. Have very good population equality (within +-100 of ideal per district, and an average deviation of under 50 people).

2. Be truly contiguous, by land, ideally without bottlenecks.

3. Split up the least number of counties possible.

4. Either a) Maximise the number of competitive districts, or b) Offer safe seats that roughly split along typical vote share in the state to seat share.


And should do three more:

5.  Avoid breaking up towns and cities, unless necessary for VRA requirements.

6. Maintain a reasonable shape and compactness.

7. Maintain the nuclei of existing districts, if existing districts are not crazy Gerrymanders.

-----------

My map meets requirement 1. Requirements 2 and 3 are basically met, although there is possibility to argue that CD-2 is a series of bottlenecks and that CD-3's part of AA is a bottleneck.  I don't think that there could be less than 4 counties that include splits, and they're the same four counties that muon and timothyinMD split.

4 is always up to interpretation, but I think that it's reasonable given the other requirements to have 2 GOP, 4 Democrat, 2 swing. Using the Obama numbers inflates the Democrat's strength, and while my map is still probably slightly too much in favour of the Democrats, I'd call it 5 D, 2 R, 1 swing, which I'm certain the GOP would find acceptable given the likely final plan that actually comes through.

5 I didn't pay much attention to, but broadly, towns aren't heavily and politically split, they were split purely for population equality. Other than CD-2, I believe 6 is met quite well, and CDs 2 and 3 together make a well-shaped, compactish area. As far as 7 is concerned, I'm happy enough with it, again with the possible exception of CD-2, but all in all good, and it's not a mandatory element.

Any further considerations I should add?

[minionofmidas]

This one wasn't disgusting: (hint hint)

Non-Partisan:



CD1 (Blue): -46; 78.0% White; 57.0% McCain
CD2 (Orange): +56; 64.7% White; 54.2% Obama
CD3 (Lime): -62; 55.8% Black; 79.4% Obama
CD4 (Red) +9; 61.3% Black; 88.8% Obama
CD5 (Yellow): +58; 59.9% White; 59.0% Obama
CD6 (Green): +21; 79.3% White; 53.0% McCain
CD7 (Black): -42; 55.1% White; 60.2% Obama
CD8 (Violet): -4; 49.9% White plurality; 73.1% Obama

Summary:

2 strong majority (55%+) Black districts
1 majority-minority district, white plurality
5 strong majority (55%+) White districts
4 safe democrat (60%+ Obama) districts
1 strong democrat (55%+ Obama) district
1 lean democrat (50%+ Obama) district
1 lean republican (50%+ McCain) district
1 strong republican (55%+ McCain) district

Max. deviation 68/100, average deviation 38.500/50.000, all districts truly contiguous, 4 counties split.

That Black district is disgusting.

(Well, not that of course, but it's not pretty.)

God, Baltimore County carveup in the leaked map is horrendous.

[jimrtex]

I'm not sure I follow why this is more "non-partisan". I also don't follow your split analysis. I count 9 county splits in four counties, using the rule that districts entirely within a county are not a split piece. That's the same number of splits in my map.

The way I would count splits is to determine the minimum number of districts that must be included in a county, and then add up the population from any excess districts.

So if a county has less population than needed for a district, then you count the population of the smaller fragment(s).   If a county has more than enough for a 1+ districts, you count beginning with the 3rd largest fragment.

Don't allow double spanning, where two counties are split between the same pair of districts, and limit the total number of county fragments to Ndistricts X 2.

The rule for house districts in the Ohio Constitution seems like a good idea, but probably forces more splits of smaller counties, because they can be arbitrarily split.  And see the truly awful district joining a little bit of Mahoning, Stark, etc.

Even if a district is wholly in a county, you still have to delineate the district (postcards to voters, ballot printing, signs for district boundaries, etc.).

It is possibly an artifact of the old apportionment scheme where counties were given temporal fractions of representatives rather than spatial fractions.

A county entitled to 1.4 representatives would have been entitled to one representative for an entire apportionment decade, and a second representative for 4/10s of the terms (2 terms).   Under the current constitution, the fraction is represented by a portion of the county joined to portions of other counties.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Two maps floating around, one targeting Bartlett, the other targeting both Bartlett and Harris.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[muon2]

I actually find option 1 a more egregious gerrymander than option 2. I wonder why they had to be so contorted for a 7-1 map.

[Miles]

They kinda remind me of the Ohio map; just looking at the plethora of MD maps on DKE, the desired partisan outcome could be achieved with cleaner maps. These two seem ugly for the sake of being ugly.

[Padfoot]

I wonder what the racial breakdowns are on these.  Even though it's a gerrymander, the second option looks tame compared to the current district lines.

[krazen1211]

Option 2 will destroy Sarbanes for a DC politician.

[Linus Van Pelt]

I don't imagine Elijah Cummings loves the look of that 7th in plan 2.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Christ wept.

[Platypus]

Don't you dar call my districts ugly again, Lewis

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah the first is far uglier. I suspect it's because they're trying to preserve some of the current districts which are indeed hideous.

[minionofmidas]

Don't you dar call my districts ugly again, Lewis

You know why I did that.

Yeah the first is far uglier. I suspect it's because they're trying to preserve some of the current districts which are indeed hideous.

Or maybe the first map is only being floated to garner support for the second. That would be arch-macchiavellian.

[timothyinMD]

Both maps are disgusting.  Dems continue to have no respect for Md-- like the Ohio Reps

[krazen1211]

They chickened.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/maryland-politics/post/proposed-md-congressional-map-could-imperil-rep-roscoe-bartlett/2011/10/03/gIQAY7FKJL_blog.html

Even that 6th district doesn't look super heavily Democratic. Probably enough to flip it though.

[Brittain33]

They chickened.

[Brittain33]

Hard to believe Maryland used to have a 4-4 delegation on a 5-3 map.

[timothyinMD]

They chickened.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/maryland-politics/post/proposed-md-congressional-map-could-imperil-rep-roscoe-bartlett/2011/10/03/gIQAY7FKJL_blog.html

Even that 6th district doesn't look super heavily Democratic. Probably enough to flip it though.

I'd estimate that at 55-56% Obama... more than enough to flip it.

Not surprising, another disgusting Maryland gerrymander.

Absolutely no reason to rip up Carroll County.

[muon2]

They chickened.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/maryland-politics/post/proposed-md-congressional-map-could-imperil-rep-roscoe-bartlett/2011/10/03/gIQAY7FKJL_blog.html

Even that 6th district doesn't look super heavily Democratic. Probably enough to flip it though.

I'd estimate that at 55-56% Obama... more than enough to flip it.

Not surprising, another disgusting Maryland gerrymander.

Absolutely no reason to rip up Carroll County.

I'm bothered more by the fingers of CD 2 and 3, particularly the cuts in Anne Arundel. The power point goes through a great deal of justification for the areas in CD 2, but ignores the finger that hooks around the north side of Baltimore. They don't bother to say much about CD 3, nor is there a single district map in the presentation. I think that's because the arm into Anne Arundel that wraps around to pick up disconnected peninsulas would be an invitation for abuse.

Of course, they could have easily swapped the respective arms of those two districts. However, I'm guessing that would make CD 2 too R for the mapper's taste.