PPP: Romney leads CA, CO, CT, NH; Huckabee leads IL, PA

[Mr. Morden]

link:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CACOCTILNHPA_1109.pdf

CA
Romney 25
Palin 18
Gingrich 15
Huckabee 15
Pence 3
everyone else at 2 or less

CO
Romney 22
Gingrich 17
Palin 17
Huckabee 14
Pawlenty 6
Pence 3
everyone else at 2 or less

CT
Romney 28
Huckabee 15
Gingrich 14
Palin 11
Pawlenty 5
Pence 5
Daniels 4
Thune 2

IL
Huckabee 18
Gingrich 17
Palin 14
Romney 12
Pawlenty 7
Daniels 6
everyone else at 2 or less

NH
Romney 40
Huckabee 13
Gingrich 10
Palin 10
Pawlenty 4
Pence 3
everyone else at 1 or less

PA
Huckabee 23
Palin 16
Romney 16
Gingrich 15
everyone else at 2 or less
(Santorum not polled)

[Mr. Morden]

Interesting that Thune's been trading 2nd or almost 2nd on intrade and only scored 2% in CT and nowhere else.

I just didn't bother listing everyone who got 1 or 2% in every state.  Only reason I bothered mentioning it in CT, is because there was no one else with 2% or less there anyway.  Here are Thune's #s in each of these states:

CA 1%
CO 2%
CT 2%
IL 2%
NH 1%
PA 1%

[Mr. Morden]

Incidentally, the Des Moines Register had Huckabee at 4% in Iowa in May 2007 (tied with Tom Tancredo), and he ended up winning the state.  So yeah, there's a long way to go.

[Mr. Morden]

This poll also includes the following general election matchups between Obama and Mr. Generic Republican:


CA
Obama 51
generic Republican 44

CO
generic Republican 50
Obama 45

CT
Obama 50
generic Republican 42

IL
Obama 49
generic Republican 45

NH
generic Republican 54
Obama 40

PA
generic Republican 52
Obama 42

On the GOP primary crosstabs, there wasn't much of interest in the way of trends that held up across all six states.  Except that Palin does better with conservative than moderate GOP primary voters in all six states, and Gingrich does better with male than female GOP primary voters in all six states.

[Mr. Morden]

I would suspect Daniels to preform that well in IL, but why is Thune polling "high" there?

What?  Thune is at 2% in Illinois.  That's statistically indistinguishable from zero support!

[Mr. Morden]

I would suspect Daniels to preform that well in IL, but why is Thune polling "high" there?

What?  Thune is at 2% in Illinois.  That's statistically indistinguishable from zero support!

Sorry, I meant Pawlenty

The GOP primary samples per state are pretty small here, so the margin of error is big.  I don't think the variation in Pawlenty's support from state to state is all that meaningful, given the small samples.  Of course, if we get subsequent primary polls of other Midwestern states showing Pawlenty in mid-high single digits there, as opposed to low single digits everywhere else, then it might mean there's a regional effect.  But not enough to go on here.