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Author Topic: 2011 and Beyond...  (Read 136988 times)
Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #500 on: July 26, 2011, 04:06:07 PM »

I want to see Pennsylvania soon.
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Miles
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« Reply #501 on: July 27, 2011, 05:24:19 PM »

Sorry everyone, I've had some pressing personal business I've had to attend to in the last few days.

I promise and update tomorrow.

@Snowstalker, I'll include PA results in my next update Smiley
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« Reply #502 on: July 27, 2011, 10:06:57 PM »

I just got back from Cresson, Pennsylvania. I wonder whats going on in the Altoona-Johnstown-Ebensburg area.
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Miles
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« Reply #503 on: July 28, 2011, 07:21:04 PM »

Chris: Just pouring in are our first results from a state that is very near and dear to my own heart, Pennsylvania. We'll start with the Senate race. Senator Bob Casey, one of the leading moderate Democrats in the Senate, will easily be turning back a challenge from State Senator Joe Scarnati. The Casey's were always well regarded by Democrats, Republicans and Independents in the Keystone state; tonight, their legacy lives on as Bob Casey is reelected by 14 points even though President Obama has been on shaky ground in Pennsylvania. We only have 67%of the state reporting, so these vote tallies are by no means final, but we can, again, project that Casey will be winning this. The Presidential race is another story. Our returns show both candidates locked in a close race with Obama clinging to a 2.5-point lead. We'll see of that holds up.

Rachel: And other than those two contests, only 1 House seat is projected to flip hands. Thanks to GOP control of redistricting, all Republicans will be holding on except Pat Meehan in the 7th district. Meehan will be losing to Admiral Joe Sestak, who held that seat before he ran for Senate. Sestak outperformed most Democrats there in 2010, but still narrowly lost. Now he's headed back to Congress. Overall, the House delegation from Pennsylvania stays Republican by an 11 to 7 margin.



Chris: Now here's one result that isn't surprising in the least Obama will be carrying D.C by 84 points! No electoral votes are safer for Democrats than the 3 from D.C.

Rachel: Moving to Michigan, we also have good news for team Obama. Despite Romney's roots here, we can still project 16 more votes for Obama. No doubt, the auto bailouts were most appreciated here. Now, GM and Chrysler have picked up with steady profits and the economy in Michigan has accordingly begun to significantly improve; Obama's adds there hammered away at that. In the Senate race, we can also report that Senator Debbie Stabenow will be returning to Washington; her challenger was Republican Pete Hoekstra. As for the Congressional delegation, again due to the Republican-drawn lines, the GOP will at least have a healthy 9 to 5 edge over Democrats.

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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #504 on: July 28, 2011, 07:25:18 PM »

Tip on PA: The final results, given Obama's slightly improved rural appeal, should give him at least the 2004 Kerry>2008 McCain counties, plus Greene. I may be also tempted to suggest giving Chester, Berks, and Dauphin to Romney. Romney would also likely improve rather than do worse in Delaware and Montgomery counties.
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Miles
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« Reply #505 on: July 28, 2011, 08:18:18 PM »
« Edited: July 28, 2011, 08:22:00 PM by MilesC56 »

Tip on PA: The final results, given Obama's slightly improved rural appeal, should give him at least the 2004 Kerry>2008 McCain counties, plus Greene. I may be also tempted to suggest giving Chester, Berks, and Dauphin to Romney. Romney would also likely improve rather than do worse in Delaware and Montgomery counties.

Thanks!

As I said, all the results aren't in yet! Wink

Also, if anyone else would like to give me tips about their respective states, feel welcomed. Electoral insights from locals are appreciated!
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #506 on: July 28, 2011, 09:35:47 PM »

Tip on PA: The final results, given Obama's slightly improved rural appeal, should give him at least the 2004 Kerry>2008 McCain counties, plus Greene. I may be also tempted to suggest giving Chester, Berks, and Dauphin to Romney. Romney would also likely improve rather than do worse in Delaware and Montgomery counties.

Thanks!

As I said, all the results aren't in yet! Wink

Also, if anyone else would like to give me tips about their respective states, feel welcomed. Electoral insights from locals are appreciated!
I tried to give you my insight on Indiana, but of course, you jacked it up, giving Clay to Ellsworth. Geesh...Tongue
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #507 on: July 28, 2011, 09:46:42 PM »

Not doubting the results in my home county (Lancaster).
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #508 on: July 28, 2011, 09:58:53 PM »

Tip on PA: The final results, given Obama's slightly improved rural appeal, should give him at least the 2004 Kerry>2008 McCain counties, plus Greene. I may be also tempted to suggest giving Chester, Berks, and Dauphin to Romney. Romney would also likely improve rather than do worse in Delaware and Montgomery counties.

Thanks!

As I said, all the results aren't in yet! Wink

Also, if anyone else would like to give me tips about their respective states, feel welcomed. Electoral insights from locals are appreciated!
I tried to give you my insight on Indiana, but of course, you jacked it up, giving Clay to Ellsworth. Geesh...Tongue

Well, its in his district so I though he'd do pretty well there.

But you have been helpful throughout this TL, tmthforu. Wink
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #509 on: July 29, 2011, 05:49:28 AM »

Thanks, Miles. I hope you update this soon Wink
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Miles
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« Reply #510 on: July 30, 2011, 02:25:02 PM »


Rachel: Next we have results from deeply blue Connecticut. While Romney did try to contest this state more than George Bush or John McCain, Obama will still be winning here. That said, the President's margin will not be as large as his 2008 blowout. Also, the President has carried Democrat Jim Himes well over the line in the Senate race. He will be defeating Linda McMahon to flip Joe Lieberman's seat. For most of the cycle, this was considered a likely Democratic pickup, as virtually any Republican would lose here in a Presidential year. Even though McMahon ousted Lieberman in the primary, she was not able to gain any substantial momentum in the general election. Connecticut voters will also be keeping their all-Democratic Congressional delegation.

Chris: Now we have results from a state on the opposite side of the spectrum: Texas. Here we have 38 votes solidly in Governor Romney's column. Despite the growing Hispanic population here, Democrats are still struggling there. Tonight, the President will lose Texas by 12 or 13 points.
We'll also be seeing another Bush in Washington! Barbara P. Bush, the daughter of George W. Bush, will be elected in a landslide against Democrat Kinky Friedman. This was for the seat being vacated by Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison. Hutchison was an early supporter of Bush. In January, Bush will break the record for the youngest women sworn into Congress; she'll only be 31, the previous record, 38, is held by Senator Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, right next door. I can surely see Barbara Bush as a rising star within the party and she could be the one to revive the Bush brand.

Rachel: That's right, Chris, we'll definitely be following Senator Bush throughout her Senate career. Through tonight's Senate races, we've seen the reemergence of two political dynasties. Vicki Kennedy brings the Kennedy legacy back to Washington with her win in Massachusetts and now Barbara Bush in Texas.
Whats amazing about Bush is that she was able to win with well over 60% of the vote! She got a significant amount of crossover support from Democrats, over 20% of Obama voters crossed their ballots for her. So, she can definitely win support from both parties and we could see here become a leading moderate within the Senate.

Chris: Moving a few states eastward, we have results from Tennessee. While the state's 11 votes will be going to Governor Romney, the real drama here was in the Senate race. If you remember, Senator Bob Corker was a top target of the tea party; accordingly, he was ousted in a crazy 4-way primary. The Republican, Congressman Zach Wamp, went on to face Democratic Congressman Bart Gordon in the general. Wamp was seen as somewhat extreme and had a number of gaffes on the campaign trail; he also had trouble consolidating the Republican vote after the primary. Gorder, by contrast, ran a well-oiled campaign operation. Gordon had former Governor Phil Bredesen, a very popular figure, do campaign ads for him and he also had help from Governor Beebe. Tonight, Gordon win by running up the margins in his very Republican-leaning district and doing well in the Delta counties as well as Middle Tennessee.  The Republicans however, will have keep their very solid 7-2 advantage in the state's House delegation.

Rachel: Still, while Democrats have won this seat, there's no doubt that they will not have Senator Gordon's vote on a number of key issues. In the campaign, he ran far to the right of most Democrats and took stances firmly against legislation such as the President's healthcare plan and most of his environmental policies. While Gordon cast Wamp as an extremist, he made it clear that he himself was no liberal.
As for the Presidential race, outside of slightly improved Democratic margins in Memphis and Nashville, this is a solid GOP win. Tennessee has been trending the Republicans way since the Clinton days; now, almost no Democratic Presidential candidate could win there now.

Chris: We have a few more Senate calls to make! This will come as both good news and bad news for both parties! In Virginia, former Governor Tim Kaine will be elected to the Senate over former Senator George Allen. Obama's strong campaign effort also gave Kaine a boost both in polls and in terms of turnout. The Virginia results aren't final, but the AP does project that Allen will not get enough votes to surpass Kaine's lead.
In Ohio, we can project that Senator Sherrod Brown will be losing his seat to AG Mary Taylor. This comes as a huge blow to liberals; Brown was a great hero to progressives. Taylor tried to portray Brown as too liberal and out of touch with Ohio. Senator Brown rode in on the 2006 wave, but many of the factors that helped him back then were working against him this time around.

Rachel: We knew that the Ohio race was going to be close. Whats interesting is that, if you look at the polls, on the local level, Ohioans dislike both parties right now; the strongly Republican Legislature is deeply unpopular, but Governor Ted Strickland only has a 40% approval rating himself. Of course, this does not bode will for the President; still, the Presidential race is too close to call in Ohio.
Who knew that BOTH Senator Browns would lose tonight! Both Scott Brown and Sherrod Brown will not be returning to Congress!
Sherrod Brown did well in the northeastern region, and around his old district, but Taylor invested heavily in southern and western portions of the state. Those regions are delivering for her tonight.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #511 on: July 30, 2011, 03:05:25 PM »

Strange Results - GOP wins Ohio but can't win Tennessee or Virginia.
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Miles
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« Reply #512 on: July 30, 2011, 03:45:07 PM »

Chris: Now lets take another look at our updated cumulative maps:

PRESIDENT
ROMNEY- 125
OBAMA- 103


SENATE



NET CHANGE: D+2

U.S HOUSE

REPUBLICANS: 136
DEMOCRATS: 113
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GLPman
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« Reply #513 on: July 30, 2011, 05:19:52 PM »

I love the format that you're using for the election. Can't wait to see more results.
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #514 on: July 30, 2011, 06:36:00 PM »

more, please!

It's a pitty Sherrod lost... Bart Gordon will be a DINO, while sherrod was a reliable liberal vote in the senate... hopefully, this TL ends with a  slim Obama victory and more dems. in the house and senate Wink
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redcommander
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« Reply #515 on: July 30, 2011, 06:53:07 PM »

I can't wait for the California results! Cheesy
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Miles
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« Reply #516 on: July 30, 2011, 07:09:55 PM »

more, please!
 hopefully, this TL ends with a  slim Obama victory and more dems.

the TL won't end until 2020! Smiley
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JulioMadrid
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« Reply #517 on: July 31, 2011, 01:33:50 AM »

more, please!
 hopefully, this TL ends with a  slim Obama victory and more dems.

the TL won't end until 2020! Smiley

good to know =)
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Miles
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« Reply #518 on: July 31, 2011, 04:05:55 PM »
« Edited: July 31, 2011, 04:31:14 PM by MilesC56 »

Rachel: Welcome back yet again to our live 2012 Election Night coverage here on MSNBC! We hope you'll stay with us as we have another hefty batch of results pouring in from states all across the country. Interestingly enough, we start in the smallest state in the Union, Rhode Island. Despite the President's slight decline in the neighboring states of Connecticut and Massachusetts, he will still be getting above 60% of the vote in Rhode Island, as it has become one of the bluest states in the county. Other than the President's 23-point win here, Senator Sheldon Whitehouse will be going back to the Senate for his sophomore term; he defeated Republican John Robatille by an even more impressive 28 points.


Chris: Now lets go to New York. The President will be winning by 20 points, not surprising. Still, he'll be falling just shy of that 60% mark. In the Senate race, Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand will be falling just short of 70%. She'll be defeating Republican Karl Paladino by a whopping 41 points! Gillibrand will be another possible Presidential candidate who we'll probably hearing more from in the future. Looks like each party will be losing a House seat here due to redistricting. Governor Cuomo made a point of redistricting in as bi-partisan a way as possible, so neither party will be making gains. The House delegation will be 21 Democrats to 6 Republicans.

Rachel: With these next two calls, we have good news for Governor Romney. Kansas, as everyone was predicting, will add 6 more electoral votes to his total. The result there was very similar to that of 2008, with Romney winning by 16 points.
However, the news that Republicans should be celebrating is this: the AP has just called Ohio for Governor Romney! Even as Cleveland precincts came in, there was no indication that the President would get enough turnout to pass the Governor. Again, the AP projects that by eight-tenths of a point, Ohio will ultimately be going Republican this year. Our numbers are showing that it was the Independent voters who really hurt the President.


Chris: That's a very harsh blow to the President. With Pennsylvania and Florida still up in the air, the President can't be feeling very good right now. In New Mexico, the story is different. New Mexicans will be giving 5 electoral votes to the President again. In the Senate race, Congressman Ben Ray Lujan, the keynote speaker at the DNC a few months ago, holds Senator Jeff Bingaman's seat for Democrats against Republican Pete Domenici Jr.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #519 on: July 31, 2011, 04:17:28 PM »

If Romney's winning Ohio, he'd do better in the counties. I'd hand him Cincinnati, at least, and maybe give Obama a couple counties in SE Ohio.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #520 on: July 31, 2011, 04:26:13 PM »
« Edited: July 31, 2011, 04:27:49 PM by Tmthforu94 »

Good update, though one little thing - no way would Obama win Riley County in Kansas. Wink Not even LBJ could win it in `64.
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Miles
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« Reply #521 on: July 31, 2011, 04:35:26 PM »

If Romney's winning Ohio, he'd do better in the counties. I'd hand him Cincinnati, at least, and maybe give Obama a couple counties in SE Ohio.

Modified.

I ran up Romney's margins in western OH and gave him Hamilton County.

 
Good update, though one little thing - no way would Obama win Riley County in Kansas. Wink Not even LBJ could win it in `64.

Ok.

Well, Riley is one of the dozen or so counties in KS that are actually trending Democrat. I thought I'd get creative and trade Crawford for Riley. I'll go back later and fix that.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #522 on: July 31, 2011, 08:51:45 PM »

I noticed I've been nitpicking a lot. Tongue Just so you know, AMAZING JOB, Miles! Smiley
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #523 on: August 01, 2011, 06:27:32 PM »

One more thing--Romney would probably win Colfax and Hidalgo counties in NM if he halves Obama's margin in the state.
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Miles
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« Reply #524 on: August 04, 2011, 06:32:54 PM »

Chris: Following pretty iffy news for the President out of Ohio, we do have some good news for him. In Wisconsin, which was the epicenter of American politics for most of 2011, he has performed well. He will be carrying the 10 electoral votes associated with Wisconsin. There was a lot of liberal energy here left over from the 2011 recall elections, in fact, Governor Scott Walker will likely face a recall election himself next year. Walker has really helped in closing the Democratic "enthusiasm gap" that was so prominent in Wisconsin during the 2010 cycle.
In fact, one of the victims of the enthusiasm gap, Senator Russ Feingold will be headed back to the Senate after losing 2 years ago; he defeated Freshman House Republican Sean Duffy. Of course, Feingold was one of the foremost progressives while he was in the Senate. Some speculated that Feingold would challenge Walker in the recall election next year, but he opted to run for Senate again. The President will be taking 52% of the vote here and Senator Feingold has captured 53%. Feingold said that his top priority when he returns to Congress will be trying to find legislative and Congressional means of deterring the Citizens United case and its ramifications.


Rachel: We also have some good news for Republicans. In Louisiana, we have a sound GOP victory. The Governor will add 8 more electoral votes to his tally. We can project that he will be winning Louisiana by 18 points. The President marginally improved on his 2008 performance, but nonetheless, Louisiana is aggressively moving towards Republicans these days.
An interesting fact about Louisiana, in the exit polls, surveyors asked whether the President's race would make voters less likely to vote for him; the state with the highest "yes" response rate was Louisiana.

Looking at the electoral landscape of Louisiana tonight, if I were Senator Mary Landrieu, I'd be feeling very cautious right now. Even though she isn'y up for election this year, Senator Landrieu, the last remaining statewide Democrat in Louisiana, will have to cast her votes very carefully if she wants to be reelected in 2 years.


Chris: Yep, the Louisiana Democrats were always the most conservative Democrats. From what I've seen, Mary Landrieu knows how to frame herself to win in this conservative state. Moving to Arkansas, we have a very close race. Arkansas, of course, is the home of Obama's running-mate Governor Mike Beebe. Despite the state's recent Republican resurgence, Team Obama seriously contested this state. As of now, its too close to call.
What we seem to have is a classic Arkansas tossup scenario; the Delta region and most of the south went for the Democrat, while the north and west have gone Republican.
This could be very close. Its worth noting that in some Delta counties, Obama has broken 70%; that's because Beebe was born and raised in that region. The coalitions that each side builds in Arkansas will be interesting to watch. Right now, Governor Romney holds a very slight advantage.

Rachel: Well, even if Democrats don't win statewide, they have picked up one Congressional seat. In the reconfigured 2nd district, former Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter will oust incumbent Tim Griffin. Halter became well known for challenging Senator Blanche Lincoln in 2010, but narrowly losing. Lincoln went on narrowly retain her seat. The redistricting process also gave Halter an advantage; Democratic Little Rock was paired with heavily Democratic Pine Bluff, while most of the other smaller counties were largely Republican; this turned a Republican-leaning district into a relatively swingy seat. 

Chris: Now for another state that is similar to Wisconsin. The President has won Minnesota again. His performance will expectantly be weaker than last time around, but the AP maintains that he will be taking almost 52% to Romney's 46%. Also, like New Jersey, Minnesota is a state where we have 2 Senate races. In the regular election, Senator Amy Klobuchar, who is one of the most popular members of Congress, sweeps every county against Republican Theresea Collette. The Special election was more interesting though. Interim Senator Betty McCollum wins over former Senator Norm Coleman. However, McCollum, like Senator Frank LoBiondo in New Jersey, will be up again in 2014.
Rachel: And remember Congressman Chip Cravaack, the keynote speaker at this year's RNC? Well, he will be losing tonight. Cravaack seat was a top target of the DSCC. The new Congressman for Minnesota's 8th with be Democrat Bill Richard. Richard was the Chief of Staff for Rep. Jim Oberstar, a longtime Congressman from that district.

Chris: Finally, we can close this batch with Nebraska. While the President managed to snag the state's 2nd Congressional district, he will have no such luck tonight. Governor Romney will be taking all 5 electoral votes from Nebraska. We can also report a Senate seat takeover. For the seat being vacated by Democrat Ben Nelson, Governor Dave Heineman will soundly be elected to the Senate against Democrat Mike Meister. Heinaman was a strong and early support of Mitt Romney.

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