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Author Topic: 2011 and Beyond...  (Read 55464 times)
Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #500 on: July 20, 2011, 06:49:08 pm »
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update soon?
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Miles
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« Reply #501 on: July 20, 2011, 07:39:12 pm »
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update soon?

Sorry, I'm on a trip (as my avatar suggests).

I'll have one up soon.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #502 on: July 23, 2011, 10:51:34 pm »
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FOR DEMS, NEWS GOOD IN WV, MIXED IN ME

Chris: Welcome back to election night here on MSNBC! Now we're going to a state that Democrats have traditionally done well in: West Virginia. The Mountain State has been one of the most reliably Democratic states throughout the twentieth century, voting for both Carter twice and Dukakis, even though they both lost. But its seems recently Democrats have let this state slip away. Is that the case tonight Rachel?

Rachel:Well, yes and no Chris. Republicans will be holding onto the state's 6 Electoral Votes, but Democrats will be winning virtually every other important race here. With almost 90% of precincts in, Romney will win the state by about 11 points.
As far as the Senate race, Senator Joe Manchin, who was an extremely popular Governor, will be cruising past Republican John Raese in a rematch. Raese was a favorite tea party candidate of Sarah Palin, but he just couldn't beat Manchin. So, Robert Byrd's old seat will stay Democratic for at least the next 6 years.
In the Governor's race, acting Governor Earl Ray Tomblin will shock the nation by keeping his job. He was considered the underdog to Rep. Shelley Moore Capito for most of the race. Tomblin did run an excellent campaign and he had help on the trail from Senator Manchin and Former President Clinton, who was always popular in West Virginia.


Chris: We also have a trio of House races to report on. As you said, Democrats have made major gains here, especially in the House. West Virginia's House delegation will do a complete flip from 2-1 Republican to 3-0 Democratic. In the first district, State Senator Mike Oliverio ousts incumbent David McKinley, who won by 1400 votes in 2010. Looks like Manchin's strong coattails really put Oliverio over the top. In the 2nd district, former (interim) Senator Carte Goodwin flips Capito's open seat. Goodwin also had help from Bill Clinton. Goodwin will be defeating perennial GOP candidate Jay Wolfe. Finally, Nick Rahall, who has been representing the southern coal fields since the Carter days, goes without an opponent. Well, if Democrats are giving away West Virginia's electoral votes, at least they're keeping its Congressional delegation.


Rachel: Moving up the north, we can report that the President is in a perilous situation in Maine. While Obama is ahead the cumulative total, we can report that Romney will likely be taking at least of one of the state's split electoral votes. The swingy 2nd district will be going to the Governor. However, Obama's margin in the other 1st district will afford him 3 of Main's 4 votes.

Chris: In the Senate race, we will see Senator Olympia Snowe back in Washington. Mainers have always been very independent people, as we have seen tonight. Senator Snowe ran as an Independent to avoid a tea party primary. As it turns out the Republican in the race, Andrew Ian Dodge, dropped out during the last few weeks due to some gaffes and campaign issues. Snowe will be defeating Democrat Hannah Pingree. Even though she lost tonight, Pingree could very well make a comeback.


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A.G. Snowstalker
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« Reply #503 on: July 23, 2011, 11:16:41 pm »
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Interesting results in both states.

Not to nitpick, however, but I'd say Snowe would win by a much bigger margin without a Republican, and that given the context Obama would have a better shot at some of the little counties in WV; maybe switch Mingo or Nicholas to Obama.

But I probably am nitpicking. Tongue Excellent job on the timeline, and certainly better than any of my election nights. If those Maine numbers don't change, this could be a very suspenseful timeline (on par with that one between Obama and Palin)
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #504 on: July 23, 2011, 11:34:04 pm »
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Why does it not surprise me Democrats are doing very well in West Virginia? Tongue
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Miles
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« Reply #505 on: July 23, 2011, 11:59:08 pm »
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If those Maine numbers don't change, this could be a very suspenseful timeline (on par with that one between Obama and Palin)

Those were the final results in Maine; Romney took ME-02!

Is the suspense killing you yet!? lol

Why does it not surprise me Democrats are doing very well in West Virginia? Tongue

b/c West Virginia is a Democratic state Wink

Outside of Presidential elections, its as blue as Massachusetts or Maryland. The GOP bench simply sucks there.

As I said, I'm a southern Democrat with West Virginian heritage myself, so I kinda indulged myself there!

I know Mike Oliverio personally...I couldn't have him lose!
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #506 on: July 24, 2011, 01:21:52 am »
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Why does it not surprise me Democrats are doing very well in West Virginia? Tongue

b/c West Virginia is a Democratic state Wink

Outside of Presidential elections, its as blue as Massachusetts or Maryland. The GOP bench simply sucks there.

As I said, I'm a southern Democrat with West Virginian heritage myself, so I kinda indulged myself there!

I know Mike Oliverio personally...I couldn't have him lose!

This is what I meant - Tomblin beating Ireland, while Democrats taking all House seats. Tongue You probably would have given Obama West Virginia too if not for the fact it's totally implausible. Wink

Good to see Goodwin back, though.
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #507 on: July 24, 2011, 10:12:43 am »
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great!! but if romney is carrying one CD in maine, he may win this election...
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
A.G. Snowstalker
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« Reply #508 on: July 26, 2011, 04:06:07 pm »
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I want to see Pennsylvania soon.
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Miles
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« Reply #509 on: July 27, 2011, 05:24:19 pm »
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Sorry everyone, I've had some pressing personal business I've had to attend to in the last few days.

I promise and update tomorrow.

@Snowstalker, I'll include PA results in my next update Smiley
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coyolxauhqui
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« Reply #510 on: July 27, 2011, 10:05:46 pm »
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Rachel:Well, yes and no Chris. Republicans will be holding onto the state's 6 Electoral Votes, but Democrats will be winning virtually every other important race here. With almost 90% of precincts in, Romney will win the state by about 11 points.
5 Electoral Votes.
Unrelatedly, I second the request for Pennsylvania.
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ChairmanSanchez
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« Reply #511 on: July 27, 2011, 10:06:57 pm »
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I just got back from Cresson, Pennsylvania. I wonder whats going on in the Altoona-Johnstown-Ebensburg area.
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If a burial strikes my family as too practical, I'd go for either a viking funeral on one of the Great Lakes or to be sealed up in a tomb with my closest servants and bang-maids so they may wait on my every need in the afterlife.
Miles
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« Reply #512 on: July 28, 2011, 07:21:04 pm »
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Chris: Just pouring in are our first results from a state that is very near and dear to my own heart, Pennsylvania. We'll start with the Senate race. Senator Bob Casey, one of the leading moderate Democrats in the Senate, will easily be turning back a challenge from State Senator Joe Scarnati. The Casey's were always well regarded by Democrats, Republicans and Independents in the Keystone state; tonight, their legacy lives on as Bob Casey is reelected by 14 points even though President Obama has been on shaky ground in Pennsylvania. We only have 67%of the state reporting, so these vote tallies are by no means final, but we can, again, project that Casey will be winning this. The Presidential race is another story. Our returns show both candidates locked in a close race with Obama clinging to a 2.5-point lead. We'll see of that holds up.

Rachel: And other than those two contests, only 1 House seat is projected to flip hands. Thanks to GOP control of redistricting, all Republicans will be holding on except Pat Meehan in the 7th district. Meehan will be losing to Admiral Joe Sestak, who held that seat before he ran for Senate. Sestak outperformed most Democrats there in 2010, but still narrowly lost. Now he's headed back to Congress. Overall, the House delegation from Pennsylvania stays Republican by an 11 to 7 margin.



Chris: Now here's one result that isn't surprising in the least Obama will be carrying D.C by 84 points! No electoral votes are safer for Democrats than the 3 from D.C.

Rachel: Moving to Michigan, we also have good news for team Obama. Despite Romney's roots here, we can still project 16 more votes for Obama. No doubt, the auto bailouts were most appreciated here. Now, GM and Chrysler have picked up with steady profits and the economy in Michigan has accordingly begun to significantly improve; Obama's adds there hammered away at that. In the Senate race, we can also report that Senator Debbie Stabenow will be returning to Washington; her challenger was Republican Pete Hoekstra. As for the Congressional delegation, again due to the Republican-drawn lines, the GOP will at least have a healthy 9 to 5 edge over Democrats.

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A.G. Snowstalker
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« Reply #513 on: July 28, 2011, 07:25:18 pm »
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Tip on PA: The final results, given Obama's slightly improved rural appeal, should give him at least the 2004 Kerry>2008 McCain counties, plus Greene. I may be also tempted to suggest giving Chester, Berks, and Dauphin to Romney. Romney would also likely improve rather than do worse in Delaware and Montgomery counties.
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Miles
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« Reply #514 on: July 28, 2011, 08:18:18 pm »
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Tip on PA: The final results, given Obama's slightly improved rural appeal, should give him at least the 2004 Kerry>2008 McCain counties, plus Greene. I may be also tempted to suggest giving Chester, Berks, and Dauphin to Romney. Romney would also likely improve rather than do worse in Delaware and Montgomery counties.

Thanks!

As I said, all the results aren't in yet! Wink

Also, if anyone else would like to give me tips about their respective states, feel welcomed. Electoral insights from locals are appreciated!
« Last Edit: July 28, 2011, 08:22:00 pm by MilesC56 »Logged


tmthforu94
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« Reply #515 on: July 28, 2011, 09:35:47 pm »
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Tip on PA: The final results, given Obama's slightly improved rural appeal, should give him at least the 2004 Kerry>2008 McCain counties, plus Greene. I may be also tempted to suggest giving Chester, Berks, and Dauphin to Romney. Romney would also likely improve rather than do worse in Delaware and Montgomery counties.

Thanks!

As I said, all the results aren't in yet! Wink

Also, if anyone else would like to give me tips about their respective states, feel welcomed. Electoral insights from locals are appreciated!
I tried to give you my insight on Indiana, but of course, you jacked it up, giving Clay to Ellsworth. Geesh...Tongue
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"A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives."
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A.G. Snowstalker
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« Reply #516 on: July 28, 2011, 09:46:42 pm »
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Not doubting the results in my home county (Lancaster).
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #517 on: July 28, 2011, 09:58:53 pm »
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Tip on PA: The final results, given Obama's slightly improved rural appeal, should give him at least the 2004 Kerry>2008 McCain counties, plus Greene. I may be also tempted to suggest giving Chester, Berks, and Dauphin to Romney. Romney would also likely improve rather than do worse in Delaware and Montgomery counties.

Thanks!

As I said, all the results aren't in yet! Wink

Also, if anyone else would like to give me tips about their respective states, feel welcomed. Electoral insights from locals are appreciated!
I tried to give you my insight on Indiana, but of course, you jacked it up, giving Clay to Ellsworth. Geesh...Tongue

Well, its in his district so I though he'd do pretty well there.

But you have been helpful throughout this TL, tmthforu. Wink
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #518 on: July 29, 2011, 05:49:28 am »
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Thanks, Miles. I hope you update this soon Wink
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #519 on: July 30, 2011, 02:25:02 pm »
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Rachel: Next we have results from deeply blue Connecticut. While Romney did try to contest this state more than George Bush or John McCain, Obama will still be winning here. That said, the President's margin will not be as large as his 2008 blowout. Also, the President has carried Democrat Jim Himes well over the line in the Senate race. He will be defeating Linda McMahon to flip Joe Lieberman's seat. For most of the cycle, this was considered a likely Democratic pickup, as virtually any Republican would lose here in a Presidential year. Even though McMahon ousted Lieberman in the primary, she was not able to gain any substantial momentum in the general election. Connecticut voters will also be keeping their all-Democratic Congressional delegation.

Chris: Now we have results from a state on the opposite side of the spectrum: Texas. Here we have 38 votes solidly in Governor Romney's column. Despite the growing Hispanic population here, Democrats are still struggling there. Tonight, the President will lose Texas by 12 or 13 points.
We'll also be seeing another Bush in Washington! Barbara P. Bush, the daughter of George W. Bush, will be elected in a landslide against Democrat Kinky Friedman. This was for the seat being vacated by Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison. Hutchison was an early supporter of Bush. In January, Bush will break the record for the youngest women sworn into Congress; she'll only be 31, the previous record, 38, is held by Senator Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, right next door. I can surely see Barbara Bush as a rising star within the party and she could be the one to revive the Bush brand.

Rachel: That's right, Chris, we'll definitely be following Senator Bush throughout her Senate career. Through tonight's Senate races, we've seen the reemergence of two political dynasties. Vicki Kennedy brings the Kennedy legacy back to Washington with her win in Massachusetts and now Barbara Bush in Texas.
Whats amazing about Bush is that she was able to win with well over 60% of the vote! She got a significant amount of crossover support from Democrats, over 20% of Obama voters crossed their ballots for her. So, she can definitely win support from both parties and we could see here become a leading moderate within the Senate.

Chris: Moving a few states eastward, we have results from Tennessee. While the state's 11 votes will be going to Governor Romney, the real drama here was in the Senate race. If you remember, Senator Bob Corker was a top target of the tea party; accordingly, he was ousted in a crazy 4-way primary. The Republican, Congressman Zach Wamp, went on to face Democratic Congressman Bart Gordon in the general. Wamp was seen as somewhat extreme and had a number of gaffes on the campaign trail; he also had trouble consolidating the Republican vote after the primary. Gorder, by contrast, ran a well-oiled campaign operation. Gordon had former Governor Phil Bredesen, a very popular figure, do campaign ads for him and he also had help from Governor Beebe. Tonight, Gordon win by running up the margins in his very Republican-leaning district and doing well in the Delta counties as well as Middle Tennessee.  The Republicans however, will have keep their very solid 7-2 advantage in the state's House delegation.

Rachel: Still, while Democrats have won this seat, there's no doubt that they will not have Senator Gordon's vote on a number of key issues. In the campaign, he ran far to the right of most Democrats and took stances firmly against legislation such as the President's healthcare plan and most of his environmental policies. While Gordon cast Wamp as an extremist, he made it clear that he himself was no liberal.
As for the Presidential race, outside of slightly improved Democratic margins in Memphis and Nashville, this is a solid GOP win. Tennessee has been trending the Republicans way since the Clinton days; now, almost no Democratic Presidential candidate could win there now.

Chris: We have a few more Senate calls to make! This will come as both good news and bad news for both parties! In Virginia, former Governor Tim Kaine will be elected to the Senate over former Senator George Allen. Obama's strong campaign effort also gave Kaine a boost both in polls and in terms of turnout. The Virginia results aren't final, but the AP does project that Allen will not get enough votes to surpass Kaine's lead.
In Ohio, we can project that Senator Sherrod Brown will be losing his seat to AG Mary Taylor. This comes as a huge blow to liberals; Brown was a great hero to progressives. Taylor tried to portray Brown as too liberal and out of touch with Ohio. Senator Brown rode in on the 2006 wave, but many of the factors that helped him back then were working against him this time around.

Rachel: We knew that the Ohio race was going to be close. Whats interesting is that, if you look at the polls, on the local level, Ohioans dislike both parties right now; the strongly Republican Legislature is deeply unpopular, but Governor Ted Strickland only has a 40% approval rating himself. Of course, this does not bode will for the President; still, the Presidential race is too close to call in Ohio.
Who knew that BOTH Senator Browns would lose tonight! Both Scott Brown and Sherrod Brown will not be returning to Congress!
Sherrod Brown did well in the northeastern region, and around his old district, but Taylor invested heavily in southern and western portions of the state. Those regions are delivering for her tonight.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #520 on: July 30, 2011, 03:05:25 pm »
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Strange Results - GOP wins Ohio but can't win Tennessee or Virginia.
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Miles
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« Reply #521 on: July 30, 2011, 03:45:07 pm »
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Chris: Now lets take another look at our updated cumulative maps:

PRESIDENT
ROMNEY- 125
OBAMA- 103


SENATE



NET CHANGE: D+2

U.S HOUSE

REPUBLICANS: 136
DEMOCRATS: 113
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« Reply #522 on: July 30, 2011, 05:19:52 pm »
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I love the format that you're using for the election. Can't wait to see more results.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #523 on: July 30, 2011, 06:36:00 pm »
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more, please!

It's a pitty Sherrod lost... Bart Gordon will be a DINO, while sherrod was a reliable liberal vote in the senate... hopefully, this TL ends with a  slim Obama victory and more dems. in the house and senate Wink
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
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« Reply #524 on: July 30, 2011, 06:53:07 pm »
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I can't wait for the California results! Cheesy
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