2011 and Beyond...

[MilesC56]

Hi guys, I did a 2020 timeline on the predictions thread and everyone seemed to enjoy it, so I thought I'd make another one!

I'm going to start with the 2011 Gubernatorial elections and then work my way to 2018 or 2020.

Comments are encouraged and welcomed.

Enjoy!

[-]

Can't wait to see it start, Miles. That 2020 scenario was excellent.

[MilesC56]

MAY 2011

Going into the 2011 gubernatorial elections, all three incumbents are popular:

KY-Steve Beshear(D)
Approve-51%
Dissapprove- 42%




LA-Bobby Jindal(R)
Approve-59%
Dissapprove-37%




MS-Haley Barbour(R) [term-limited]
Approve-61%
Disapprove- 35%




In all three states, Obama’s approval rating is hovering around 30%:

KY-35/58
LA-29/64
MS-30/63

KY:
Despite Obama’s -23 net approval in KY, Dixiecrat Steve Beshear remains ahead of his two announced opponents by double digits in the polls, State Legislator Dave Williams and Congressman Brett Guthrie in the polls. While the RGA was initially eying Beshear’s seat, GOP leadership ultimately decided to save its funding for more competitive races in 2012.



LA:
Jindal, due to his charisma and Obama’s deep unpopularity in LA, has not drawn any serious competition. The only announced Democrat seeking Jindal’s seat is former Congressman Don Cazayoux of Baton Rouge; Cazayouz is pretty much running to build name recognition. Former judge Chet Traylor, a Republican challenger to David Vitter in 2010, has also filed to run. Jindal has opened with a wide lead in the polls and is heavily favored to win a jungle primary outright, without a runoff.




MS:
While Haley Barbour is among the most popular governors in the nation, the GOP primary to pick his successor is heating up. Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant is seen as the establishment favorite, but the Tea Party Express has come in for States Treasurer Tate Reeves. The GOP primary is turning into an all-out proxy war reminiscent of the 2010 GA GOP governor’s primary or the 2010 DE Senate GOP primary.

2012 Republican candidates are trying to put last minute victories on their resumes by endorsing either Reeves or Bryant. Sarah Palin, Jim DeMint, Mike Huckabee and Newt Gingrich put their weight behind Reeves while Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty , Mitch Daniels and John McCain endorsed Bryant. Barbour would not endorse in the primary. Mississippi’s GOP Senators are divided on this race as well; Roger Wicker, fearing a tea party challenge in 2012, endorsed Reeves, but Thad Cochran chose Bryant. The Tea Party Express has reserved $3 million for Reeves’ campaign and a combined total of 2 million has already been spent by both the candidates on negative ads.

Sensing a harsh GOP primary, the Democrats drafted longtime south-Mississippi Congressman Gene Taylor. Taylor, who was narrowly swept up in 2010 GOP wave, often won reelection to the House with 70% or better and still remains favorable. Even better for the Democrats, Taylor will be uncontested in the primary. Taking advantage of the divided Republicans, Taylor has been competitive in the polls by touting his conservative voting record while in the house and emphasizing his leadership during the BP oil leak. Taylor’s main message: "I’m not Obama!!!”

[-]

It looks like the big contest is going to be Mississippi. I'm thinking a bloody GOP Primary could hand the election to Taylor.

He would win big in Bennie Thompson's district, probably pretty good in his own (not being sent to rubberstamp Pelosi anymore), but he needs to work on NE MS.

[SvenssonRS]

By God, this is awesome already.

Keep it going, and let me know if you need any help. I am a timeline maniac.

[MilesC56]

It looks like the big contest is going tobe Mississippi. I'm thinking a bloody GOP Primary could hand the election to Taylor.

He would win big in Bennie Thompson's district, probably pretty good in his own (not being sent to rubberstamp Pelosi anymore), but he needs to work on NE MS.

PPP released a survey in May asking whether MS voters would be willing to support Taylor over a generic Republican.

Mississippi polling by Cong. District:


Generally speaking, would you support Democrat Gene Taylor for Governor?

District I
Yes-43%
No-52%

District II
Yes-62%
No-32%

District III
Yes-41%
N0-50%

District IV
Yes-53%
No-42%

[-]

It looks like the big contest is going tobe Mississippi. I'm thinking a bloody GOP Primary could hand the election to Taylor.

He would win big in Bennie Thompson's district, probably pretty good in his own (not being sent to rubberstamp Pelosi anymore), but he needs to work on NE MS.

PPP released a survey in May asking whether MS voters would be willing to support Taylor over a generic Republican.

Mississippi polling by Cong. District:


Generally speaking, would you support Democrat Gene Taylor for Governor?

District I
Yes-43%
No-52%

District II
Yes-62%
No-32%

District III
Yes-41%
N0-50%

District IV
Yes-53%
No-42%

So it's YES statewide by a 49.75-44.00 margin. That's good, and the primary hasn't gotten bloody yet!

[MilesC56]

By God, this is awesome already.

Keep it going, and let me know if you need any help. I am a timeline maniac.

Thanks Svenssen! Just sit back and enjoy! lol

[MilesC56]

On the national scene, things aren't looking particularly good for Democrats;  a generic Republican would get the bare 270 EVs against Obama.





Obama Approval:

Gallup: 44/50

Quinnipiac: 44/51

PPP: 45/49

Obama Favorables

Gallup: 46/48

Quinnipiac: 47/49

PPP: 48/47


GOP Favorables:

Romney: 43/40

Huckabee: 42/43

Palin: 36/51

Thune: 38/34

Barbour: 37/40

Gingrich: 38/46

Daniels: 35/24

[-]

On the national scene, things aren't looking particularly good for Democrats;  a generic Republican would get the bare 270 EVs against Obama.





Obama Approval:

Gallup: 44/50

Quinnipiac: 44/51

PPP: 45/49

Obama Favorables

Gallup: 46/48

Quinnipiac: 47/49

PPP: 48/47


GOP Favorables:

Romney: 43/40

Huckabee: 42/43

Palin: 36/51

Thune: 38/34

Barbour: 37/40

Gingrich: 38/46

Daniels: 35/24

Not good for Taylor if his opponent can tie him to Obama.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

This is very good. Keep it coming!

[CathKhan]

This is very good. Keep it coming!

[MilesC56]

JULY 2011

By July, the focal point of the elections is Mississippi. Louisiana and Kentucky have devolved into nothing more than sideshows; Beshear is still leading by double-digits and Jindal is far ahead. However, here are the updated LA and KY numbers.

KY:
KY State Senate President David Williams and his running mate Richie Farmer won the GOP primary. Dan Mongiardo, after a 2010 primary loss, steps down as Beshear’s running mate and is replaced by Louisville mayor Jerry Abramson. The Democrats lead by an average of 10 points.



Beshear Approval: 54/43
Obama Approval: 35/57

LA:

This race remained very static; Jindal’s numbers continue to hover slightly under 60% while Cazayoux is stuck in the mid-30’s. Traylor’s campaign has fallen apart, not that he had much of an effort to begin with. Obama’s already poor approval in LA has continued to slide.



Jindal Approval: 57/37
Obama Approval: 28/65

[Progressive]

LOVE. please continue.

[MilesC56]

BREAKING NEWS  BREAKING NEWS  BREAKING NEWS  BREAKING NEWS


July 20, 2011-After having a major falling-out with progressive Democrats in the Senate over healthcare and education funding, Joe Lieberman schedules a press conference. It seems we have our first major development of the 2012 Senate elections:




“After witnessing the intense partisanship displayed by some of my unapologetically liberal colleagues, such as Senator Franken, Senator Durbin and Senator Boxer, I have come to a few conclusions about my future in this chamber. First, I realize that my reelection outlook in 2012 as an independent is very gloomy.  Second, for years I have been looking for an alternative to the ever-more partisan Democratic Party.  Thus, I will be seeking reelection to a 5th term in the Senate as a Republican. As such, I will be leaving the Democratic caucus, of which I’ve been a member for 23 years, and I will be joining my friends on the Republican side.”

[feeblepizza]

This definitely looks good so far. Reelect Joe!

[MilesC56]

From an electoral perspective, Lieberman's swtich was pretty obvious, as he trails badly as an Independent:

PPP hypothetical polls- June, 2011

Lieberman*-16%
Himes[D]- 40%
Rell[R]-32%

Lieberman*-17%
Himes[D]-41%
Foley[R]-31%

Lieberman*-19%
Murphy[D]-39%
Rell[R]-34%

Lieberman*-17%
Murphy[D]- 40%
Foley[R]-33%

Quinnipiac generic poll-May 2011

Lieberman*-20%
Generic D- 44%
Generic R- 27%

Lieberman Overall Favorables- 31/59


Lieberman Favorablity by party:

Democrats: 24/68
Republicans: 48/40
Independents: 36/58

[MorningInAmerica]

This sounds pretty interesting. Nothing about the presidential candidates yet? Or does this time line focus on non-presidential political happenings?

[MilesC56]

This sounds pretty interesting. Nothing about the presidential candidates yet? Or does this time line focus on non-presidential political happenings?

I'll get to the 2012 Presidential race soon. Right now I'm doing the 2011elections and early developments from the 2012 Senate races.

Trust me...we're gonna have fun with the presidential races!!

[Senator Barnes]

I like this so far!

Lieberman is going down in the Senate race.

[Jayhawker]

Good for Lieberman!

[CathKhan]

This definitely looks good so far. Reelect Joe!

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

I hope Lieberman goes down like Specter did. Keep it coming!

[MilesC56]

LATE JULY 2011

Meanwhile in MS, the GOP contest, which is leading up to an early August primary, has gotten downright nasty. It is estimated that Bryant and Reeves have spent a combined total of $9 million, most of which has been spent on negative advertizing. The obvious beneficiary of the divisive primary has been Gene Taylor, who has crept ahead of both Republicans.

Taylor has been running a great campaign operation.  Taylor plans to do the majority of his campaigning in the 2nd and 4th Congressional districts; he plans to elevate black turnout in the heavily Democratic 2nd District while consolidating his standing in his native south-Mississippi 4th District.

The Tea Party express has spent upwards of $3.5 million on Reeves campaign and has deployed several conservative heavyweights on the campaign trail:

Sarah Palin


 “The great state of Mississippi needs Tate Reeves’ strong pro-America leadership; as Treasurer, he worked for reduced taxes, less government intrusion and he’s advised reigning in spending. Tate’s opponent is a typical Mississippi RINO and he’s been one of the same-‘ol-same-‘ol big-spending Washington-type Republicans.”

Sharron Angle


 “Tate Reeves will stand up for Mississippi’s conservative principles and he will use common-sense remedies to deal with the state’s issues. Tate has a battle-tested, war-ready conservative record.  There is really no reason why this primary should be this close…Mississippi Republicans need to man-up and vote for Tate Reeves.”

Marco Rubio


 “In one candidate, Mississippi has a candidate who will defend the Constitutional principles that made this country great. That candidate is Tate Reeves. Tate and I both came from low beginnings but thanks to our limited-government, freedom-loving believes, we made it.”

Conversely, the members Mississippi and national GOP establishment have made many endorsements on behalf of Phil Bryant:

Thad Cochran


“In my 33 years representing this great state in the Senate, I have never come across a better Lt. Governor than Phil Bryant. Phil, Haley and I have worked to keep Mississippi strong and Phil is the only candidate who has the executive experience to keep Mississippi going strong. I look forward to working with him”

Mitt Romney


“When I first came down to Mississippi, I was very impressed with the state’s overall standing in the nation; Mississippi owes much of its prosperity to the leadership of Haley Barbour and Phil Bryant. I am confident that under Bryant Mississippi will continue to make strides and lead the south.”

Trent Lott


“My friends, Mississippi needs Phil Bryant. It would be absolutely foolish to elect a candidate with the inexperience of Tate Reeves. This country faces tough times, we need more governors like Phil Bryant to get out of this ditch that Obama and the Democrat party have left us in.”


Seizing the opportunity to elect a rare Democratic governor in red Mississippi, Dixecrats are very excited to campaign for Gene Taylor. The national DGA has deployed many Dixiecrats to go to bat for Taylor.

Mary Landrieu


“It is the best interest of our Gulf Coast that Gene Taylor be elected this state’s next governor. In Congress, Gene and I fought to save jobs in out Gulf Coast fishing and oil industries and we worked to hold BP accountable. Gene has served as south Mississippi’s voice for years; he deserves a promotion.”

Marion Berry


“’ ‘Folks, I’ve worked with Gene Taylor in Congress for fourteen years. Let me tell you, Gene is the man! In Congress, Gene and I worked to bring more agriculture and health funding to areas of the south like Arkansas and Mississippi. Gene has been standing up for Mississippi for more than 20 years. The man deserves a second chance!”

Mike Beebe


“As a governor of a southern state, I know what it takes to lead.  Gene Taylor is an excellent choice for Mississippi. Neither of Gene’s opponents have his impressive legislative record or his strong bipartisan appeal.”

Joe Manchin


“I am confident that Gene will do here in Mississippi what my administration did in West Virginia; we worked across the aisle and legislated in a fiscally conservative way to create record prosperity and a budget surplus.”

[MilesC56]

Current Mississippi Polls: