2011 and Beyond...

[SvenssonRS]

As if we needed any more proof that Palin is a disgrace.

[Senator Barnes]

Excellent so far, Miles!

As far as the election, I think the Huckster might just pull a comeback. That would certainly make for the most interesting match-up!

[MilesC56]

I haven't posted any candidate announcements lately for the Congressional or Gubernatorial races in a while, so here we go:

Montana:


Next year we will see somewhat of a reshuffling of positions here. While Jon Tester is still running for Senate, Congressman Denny Rehberg will be running for Governor. To replace Rehberg, current Governor Brian Schweitzer will be running for the House. All three men are popular in the state and are ell expected to win against token opposition. Tester will be running against businessman Steve Daine; Rehberg will be facing AG Steve Bullock; Shcweitzer will be running against businessman Neil Livingstone.

Senate:
Tester-49%
Daines-38%

Governor:
Rehberg-55%
Bullock-37%

House
Schweitzer-59%
Livingstone-35%

Arizona:
Senator Jon Kyl will be seeking a 4th term. Former AG and 2010 candidate Terry Goddard will be challenging him. Kyl is in good shape. Boring.

Kyl-53%
Goddard-41%


Tennessee:


One of the most endangered Senators this cycle will be Bob Corker. Corker's main challenge will not necessarily be in the general election, but from within his own party's ranks. He has amassed a wide field of challengers who claim that they are more conservative than he is. His three main opponents are former Congressman Zach Wamp, musician Hank Williams and YouTube personality Basil Marceaux. Polling suggests that Corker is, in fact, vulnerable in the primary.
Democrats, seeing the writing on the wall, have recruited former Congressman Bart Gordon. While former Governor Phil Bredesen declined to run, Gordon should be a strong candidate in the event that Corker loses his primary; Gordon trails Corker, he is competitive with Wamp and leads Marceaux and Williams.

GOP Primary:
Corker-37%
Wamp-28%
Williams-15%
Marceaux-12%

Michigan:


Since the 2010 elections, Michigan's economy has improved moderately; this is partially due to a better-than-expected performance from the Big Three automakers and the increased quality and demand for American cars.It seems that the 2009 auto bailout is yielding metaphorical fruit here. Thus, the 2012 Michigan electorate will be less hostile to incumbents than the 2010 electorate.
Unemployment here has decreased from 12% to 9.2%. Thus, Republicans have less ammunition to use against incumbent Debbie Stabenow. Her foremost opponent will be Congressman Pete Hoeskstra; while Stabenow looked vulnerable in earlier years, her numbers have seen a rebound.

Stabenow-46%
Hoesktra- 40%

Delaware:


In Delaware, super-popular Governor Jack Markell will eschew a second term in the statehouse; rather, he will be running for Tom Carper's open Senate seat. Markell will be running against...you guessed it!...Christine O'Donnell! AG Beau Biden will be seeking a promotion to Governor; no Republicans have yet announced that they will be challenging Biden. In any case, Markell and Biden are assured victory.

Senate:
Markell-61%
O'Donnell-31%

Governor:
Biden-63%
Generic R- 28%

[CathKhan]

Go Hoekstra!

[feeblepizza]

Go Hoekstra!

[SvenssonRS]

Oh, man, I'm loving the candidates so far. This is going to be interesting, I can tell.

[MilesC56]

Candidate announcements/Congressional races continued....


West Virginia


West Virginia is looking to be one of the most interesting states this election cycle. This state will have a Senate race, a Gubernatorial race and two competitive House contests.
First, tea party favorite and Palin-backed 2010 candidate John Raese has struggled to gain traction against Senator Joe Manchin in a rematch. This is Raese's 4th Senate run and voters just aren't terribly enthused about his candidacy. Manchin has retained much of his popularity as he has moved from the WV statehouse to Washington D.C. Manchin maintains a wide lead.
Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito is the favorite to become Governor in 2012. Governor Tomblin will not be seeking a second term. Capito has no clear opponent yet.
Former Senator Carte Goodwin will be running to replace Capito in the 2nd district. Goodwin will be facing perennial candidate Jay Wolfe. Manchin and Rockefeller are expected to be stumping for Goodwin.
In the first district, Rep. McKinley will be facing a competitive rematch with State Legislator Mike Oliverio. McKinley won by less than 1400 votes in 2010.
Congressman Nick Rahall is expected to cruise to victory in the 3rd district.

Senate:
Manchin-55%
Raese-34%

Governor:
Capito-58%
Generic D- 38%



Wyoming:


Despite the overwhelming GOP tilt of Wyoming, the state is set to have a competitive House race. Former Governor Dave Freudenthal will be challenging Rep. Cynthia Lummis. Freudenthal, while a Democrat, has an established reputation as a political moderate and a problem-solver; he remains extremely popular. Lummis has been accused by some to be out of touch with her constituents and she he been criticized for her infrequent visits to Wyoming.  

Colorado:

Here we will have an interesting House race as well. In the redistricted 4th district, Betsy Markey will be seeking a return to Washington D.C. In the redistricting session, the legislature made CO-05 a solidly GOP district while, in the process, making CO-04 into a true swing district. Markey will be running against 2010 Senate candidate Ken Buck.
During her term in Congress, Markey cast politically tough votes, such as votes in favor of healthcare reform and the stimulus package, that ultimately led to her defeat. Now, Democrats are hoping that the gaffe-prone Buck will be an easy opponent for Markey.
The 4th district is still based in northern-CO and now includes a greater portion of the Boulder-area.


Arkansas

Thanks to a redistricting by the Democratic legislature, Republican Tom Griffin is now vulnerable in the 2nd district. Griffin will be facing former Lt. Governor Bill Halter. The AR-02 now has an EVEN projected PVI , down from its previous R+5. Halter, while a progressive, is very popular on the personal level and is considered to be an excellent campaigner and fundraiser.


Minnesota:

Here, we have both a Senate race and a closely watched House race. Senator Amy Klobuachar is in solid shape with approvals approaching 60%. Her opponent will be Teresa Collett, who unsuccessfully challenged Rep. Betty McCollum in 2010. Democrats have little to worry about here.
Klobuchar-60%
Collett-32%


On the House side, the race for the 8th Congressional district will be one of particular emotional and symbolic value for the DFL. Bill Richard, who served as Chief of Staff for the former Congressman Jim Oberstar, will be running to avenge his fallen boss. Rep. Chip Cravaack was able to pull a narrow upset here in 2010, mostly due to low turnout; this year, the DFL is making voter turnout, especially in St. Louis County, its top priority. Since the new district is relatively similar to the old one, the overall dynamics and demographics of the 8th district still lean Democratic.

[SvenssonRS]

I can't properly express how happy that House race makes me.

[MilesC56]

I can't properly express how happy that House race makes me.

That was for you, my friend!

[SvenssonRS]

I can't properly express how happy that House race makes me.

That was for you, my friend!

It's a marvelous present.

[HappyWarrior]

Any update for MD-01?

[Senator Barnes]

Could we get some info on some GA Congressional races?

[JulioMadrid]

Best TL ever =)

[MilesC56]

A few more race updates...

Maryland:

The Senate race in Maryland will feature to candidates with high statewide profiles. Sen. Ben Cardin, while not as popular as his colleague Barb Mikulski, is still very well liked. He will be challenged by former Governor Bob Erhlich. Erhlich, although at this point he has become the Dino Rossi of MD, was the GOP's best possible recruit here. Still, Cardin is still looking to be one of the safer Senators up this cycle.

Cardin-52%
Ehrlich-36%


In terms of redistricting, while Democrats have essentially been locked out of states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania, Democrats have tried to milk as many districts as possible out of the relatively few states that they still control. One example of this is MD-01. In Maryland, Democrats have a trifecta, as they have large majorities in both state chambers and hold the statehouse; they have taken full advantage of this. Traditionally, MD-01 has been a conservative district by state standards, however, when it comes to redistricting in MD, seemingly minor changes in district boundaries can profoundly change the nature of a district. Such is the case with MD-01; it has now extended further inward into some heavily Democratic portions of the state. Its PVI has gone down from R+13 to a amazing R+1.
Former Congressman Frank Kratovil, a casualty of the 2010 wave. is seeking a rematch against Rep. Andy Harris. Democrats are wasting no time in linking Harris, an unapologetic conservative and tea party supporter, to such figures as Sarah Palin and Michelle Bachmann. Kratovil, on the other hand, is a centrist Democrats and some liberals are hesitant to support him.


Georgia:

With a political trifecta here, Republicans have carved up an expectedly GOP-friendly map. GA gained one seat during the census. The legislature's plan has protected all incumbent Republican incumbent and created a new GOP-leaning swing district. The biggest beneficiary of redistricting, besides the GOP,  was Rep. John Barrow; the legislature conceded GA-12 to the Democrats as they tried to sure-up their own incumbents. Barrow now has a D+6 district, up from D+1.

The new district, GA-14, would encompass Athens; it would also take in rural areas of central-GA while extending into some Democratic areas near Atlanta. Democrats are trying to convince former Athens mayor Heidi Davison to run for Congress; Davison left office with a 60% approval rating and is very popular in the Athens area. Republicans have a candidate in State Senator Johnny Grant. If Davison were to run, this would be one of the closest races in the country.

One other district to watch will be GA-02, where Rep. Sanford Bishop will be facing a rematch against State Rep. Mike Keown. Bishop won narrowly won in 2010, but his district has since gotten marginally more conservative. Bishop's fate will likely rely on Obama's ability to turn out Democratic votes here.

[MilesC56]

24 FEBRUARY 2012

BREAKING: HUCKABEE DROPS OUT

HUCK EXITS RACE, CONCEDES GOP NOMINATION


"...my friends and fellow Republicans, after careful consideration and discussion with my family, I have decided to leave the race for the Republican nomination. I simply have concluded that, although I have no shortage of enthusiastic supporters, that the electoral map will probably not turn out in my favor.
That said, I am still looking forward to a Republican victory in 2012. As of now, I will be endorsing Governor Palin or Governor Romney. Rather, come November, I will be throwing my support behind whomever my party nominates. I will also be campaigning for the Republican nominee this fall; both Mitt and Sarah would be better as President than Obama!
This is by no means the end of my public service. I will be working with my PAC, Huck PAC, to help elect conservative candidates for legislative and statewide offices this year.
The good Lord has blessed my life in such a way that I will never be able to fully express. This opportunity to seek the highest office in the world was just his latest blessing. As I leave the ring, I'd like to thank the people of Arkansas, who were the first to trust me; I am enormously grateful to them. I would like to thank the voters in the states that I won, as well as all those Republicans who supported me, regardless of state lines.
Thank you and God bless America!"

[SvenssonRS]

Oh, crap. x_x

[Mehmentum]

Oh, crap. x_x

Yeah.

I think Palin's odds of winning have just gone up.

[MilesC56]

A few more Senate updates...

Hawaii:


In Hawaii, the main contest looks like it will be in the Democratic primary rather than the general election. Former Congressman Ed Case will once again be attempting to primary Senator Dan Akaka. Case will be running to the right of Akaka, as he did in 2006. Akaka has the support of the state Democratic Party as well as Sen. Dan Inouye and HI native President Obama. Case came within 8 points of ousting Akaka in by 2006 by implying that the sitting Senator was too old and the HI needed a new generation in the Senate. This year Akaka will be 88 years old; still Sen. Inouyem, who is the same age, was reelected with 75% of the vote in 2010, suggesting that Hawaiians might not care much about age. Also, this would be Case'd third attempt at a seat in Congress in 6 years; he may be viewed as 'damaged goods.'

Washington:


Senator Maria Cantwell will be getting a marginally more threating opponent in  Snohomish County Councilman John Koster. Koster is the second major Republican to challenge Cantwell, after tea party-endorsed Clint Didier. (Surprisingly, Dino Rossi has ruled out running!). Neither Republican comes close to Cantwell in the polls, although Republicans see Koster as more electable than the extreme Didier; Koster has managed to hold Cantwell under 50% in cumulative polls. In any case, most of the GOP's efforts here will be in the Gubernatorial race, where AG Rob McKenna is running to deny Gov. Chris Gregoire a third term.

Cantwell-49%
Koster-38%

Cantwell-53%
Didier-33%

Missouri


As usual, the Show-Me state will have no shortage of high-profile races. Lt. Gov. Steve Kinder will be seeking a promotion by attempting to oust Governor Jay Nixon. Nixon still remains on popular ground, but MO has trended strongly towards the GOP since his election in 2008.
Republicans have long considered Sen. Claire McCaskill to be one of their prime targets. In McCaskill was a candidate who, without the overwhelming 2006 Democratic wave at her back, would have likely fallen short. The two Republicans vying to run against her are establishment Blaine Luetkemeyer and tea party Sarah Steelman. Luetkemeyer, a victim of redistricting, opted to run against McCaskill rather than battling Rep. Sam Graves in a GOP primary; he has the endorsement of Sen. Roy Blunt and his predecessor, Kit Bond. Steelman has been backed by Sen. Jim DeMint and the Tea Party Express. While Luetkemeyer has a 98% lifetime rating from the Amerrican Conservative Union, Steelman is maintaining that he is too moderate.

Nixon- 49%
Kinder- 39%

McCaskill- 48%
Luetkemeyer- 44%

McCaskill- 50%
Steelman- 40%

New Jersey


Despite the blue tilt of NJ, we will have 2 closely watched races here. Sen. Bob Menendez, who has never had particularly solid ratings, is being challenged by House freshman John Runyan. Runyan, due to his lack of seniority, had his district axed. Menendez maintains a lead in the polls, Runyan has not developed much name recognition.
The more interesting here will be the Special Election. Appointed Senator Frank LoBiondo will be campaigning to represent NJ for two more years in the Senate. On the Democratic side, former Gov. John Corzine will be seeking a return to the Senate. Corzine is personally unpopular, but, as a Democrat, he will have up-ticket help from Obama. LoBiondo is in the opposite situation. While he is popular on the personal level, he is trying to keep his party affiliation at arm's length; since his appointment, he has been among the most liberal Republicans in the Senate, breaking with his party on fiscal and environmental issues. Some observers expected LoBiondo to get a primary challenger, but the tea party will be investing in other states, such as Utah, Tennessee and Nevada.

Menendez- 43%  
Runyan-36%         

LoBiondo-41%
Corzine-40%


If my tally serves me correctly, states were I haven't specifically announced candidates for Senate are : VT, ME, PA, WY, IN, MS, WY and CA. Most of those state are pretty safe anyway, but I'll try have those out by the end of this week.

[feeblepizza]

Go Palin!

[JulioMadrid]

Go Palin!

for other reasons, obviously...

[CathKhan]

I think Huckabee could've been one of the better nominees. With Romney, you risk alienating the Tea Party. With Palin you risk losing everything except the Tea Party. I think Romney would fare better but maybe get less turnout in the South. Maybe he could choose Huck as his running mate or something.

[bloombergforpresident]

What about MO redistricting???

[feeblepizza]

Maybe [Romney] could choose Huck as his running mate or something.

Those two hate eachother. Not happening, even in a TL.

[CathKhan]

Maybe [Romney] could choose Huck as his running mate or something.

Those two hate eachother. Not happening, even in a TL.

Oops. Yeah, forgot about that.

[MilesC56]

What about MO redistricting???

Here's the plan that I came up with, its based off on one of KS21's designs.

Correction from previous post: Luetkemeyer would actually live in Hartzler's district.

Otherwise, I tried to make the map favorable to incumbents.

Rather than expanding Russ Carnahan's district into more rural areas, I tried to vote-pack it in with some territory from Lacy Clay's. That makes Emerson and Aiken both very safe.