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|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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| | |-+  2011 and Beyond...
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Author Topic: 2011 and Beyond...  (Read 57336 times)
redcommander
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« Reply #550 on: August 11, 2011, 09:26:29 pm »
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How did Cicciline manage to hold on in Rhode Island? I know its a pretty liberal place, but I don't see him winning against the Republican.
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« Reply #551 on: August 13, 2011, 07:13:29 am »
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more, please!
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
ChairmanSanchez
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« Reply #552 on: August 13, 2011, 01:54:26 pm »
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more, please!
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A Hybrid of Pat Buchanan and Bob Dylan.
Snowstalker
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« Reply #553 on: August 13, 2011, 01:59:34 pm »
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bloombergforpresident
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« Reply #554 on: August 13, 2011, 03:16:05 pm »
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Who won Luektemeyer's seat in MO?
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Mitt Romney is whatever you want him to be, sugar. 150 roses for a half-hour, 300 for a full hour. In-calls only.
Miles
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« Reply #555 on: August 13, 2011, 11:29:34 pm »
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How did Cicciline manage to hold on in Rhode Island? I know its a pretty liberal place, but I don't see him winning against the Republican.

Just assume some generic (and thus, electable) Democrat beat him in the primary and held the seat.

Who won Luektemeyer's seat in MO?

His 9th district was axed since he ran for Senate. Most of his district was combined with Aiken's and Graves'.



I'll shoot for an update by Monday; I'm currently working on a few more state maps.

'Miles
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« Reply #556 on: August 16, 2011, 05:59:57 am »
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So...?
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Miles
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« Reply #557 on: August 18, 2011, 10:32:33 am »
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A long-awaited update! Smiley

Rachel: Continuing our move westward, we have several more states to project. We just got results from the Dakotas. Starting in South Dakota, the home of Republican VP candidate John Thune. Accordingly, Governor Romney will be winning the state in a blowout 68-31 margin. This just shows how popular Senator Thune is back home. Democratoc counties are largely limited to those with large majority Native American populations. In the House race, Freshman Republican Kristi Noem faced only token opposition, as former Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin decided against seeking a rematch.


Chris: The Republican Presidential ticket was also very strong in North Dakota. Romney will be winning there by about 30 points. However, at the state level, North Dakota is more of a mixed bag. We had quite an interesting Senate race here. Acting Governor Jack Dalrymple challenged Senator Kent Conrad. Dalrymple was fairly popular despite not actually being elected; he portrayed Conrad as a Beltway insider who was too entrenched in D.C politics to be in touch with North Dakota. Polling was close for this race, as Dalrymple was competitive. With only 64% of precincts in, we can report that Senator Conrad is trailing the Governor. This could really come down to the wire. North Dakota hasn't had a competitive Senate race in decades.

Rachel: There was also an open Governor's race there. This comes as good news for Democrats. The AP can project that former Senator Byron Dorgan will come out ahead of Lieutenant Governor Drew Wrigley. Because of his retirement, Dorgan wasn't as attached to D.C as Conrad, so that definitely played his favor. Wrigley also ran somewhat of an ineffective and slow campaign.


Chris: Moving west still, we have a look at Nevada. Governor Romney has always done well here and we can report that he is indeed in a tight race. At this point, we can give the President a small lead, but we still about a third of precincts left.
However, one race that isn't close is the Senate contest. Congresswoman Dina Titus will be soundly elected over tea party icon Sharron Angle. Angle ousted Senator John Ensign in the primary, but never had much appeal outside of conservative voters. Even if Obama loses here, Democrats should be glad that they have both of Nevada's Senate seats.
The House delegation will stand at 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans. Democrats Shelley Berkley and Chris Guinchigliani were elected in liberal Las Vegas districts will Republicans Joe Heck and Sue Lowden take the other 2 seats.




Rachel: We can finally make a call in Missouri. Governor Romney will win there by about 3%. The President lost there by 3000 votes and since then the electorate has become less receptive to him. In any case, its a good boost for Governor Romney.

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« Reply #558 on: August 18, 2011, 01:35:33 pm »
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Woah, Obama did worse than I expected in the Dakotas. Guess Thune helped a lot more than I expected.
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Miles
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« Reply #559 on: August 18, 2011, 01:47:58 pm »
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Woah, Obama did worse than I expected in the Dakotas. Guess Thune helped a lot more than I expected.

It may seem like a lot, but in 2004, Bush got 60% in SD and 62% in ND.

So Romney outperforms Bush by 8% in SD and 2% in ND. I think that's reasonable considering Thune's home-state effect.
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Snowstalker
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« Reply #560 on: August 18, 2011, 01:50:04 pm »
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Yeah. Obama slightly overperformed as well due to McCain's opposition to ethanol.
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ChairmanSanchez
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« Reply #561 on: August 18, 2011, 03:14:49 pm »
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A Romney victory in Missouri is a good sign.
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« Reply #562 on: August 18, 2011, 04:28:10 pm »
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Up next:

-IA
-CO
-MT
-UT
-AR (official AP call)
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #563 on: August 18, 2011, 04:30:29 pm »
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Up next:

-IA
-CO
-MT
-UT
-AR (official AP call)

that'll be today??

I hope Conrad wins... he's one of my favourite senators.
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #564 on: August 18, 2011, 04:34:30 pm »
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Up next:

-IA
-CO
-MT
-UT
-AR (official AP call)

that'll be today??

I hope Conrad wins... he's one of my favourite senators.

Probably not today; I'll be traveling tomorrow, so I'll shoot for Saturday. I'll post what I can tonight as well.

I'll try to get IA, MT and UT up tonight. How's that?
« Last Edit: August 18, 2011, 04:36:48 pm by MilesC56 »Logged


Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #565 on: August 18, 2011, 07:29:52 pm »
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Up next:

-IA
-CO
-MT
-UT
-AR (official AP call)

that'll be today??

I hope Conrad wins... he's one of my favourite senators.

Probably not today; I'll be traveling tomorrow, so I'll shoot for Saturday. I'll post what I can tonight as well.

I'll try to get IA, MT and UT up tonight. How's that?

That's enough Wink Thanks. UT should be really interesting
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #566 on: August 18, 2011, 10:36:02 pm »
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Chris: Now lets go Utah. As a Mormon, this was like a home-state to Governor Romney. As you would expect, it was no contest at the Presidential level. Romney beat the President by a better than 3-to-1 margin. 'Pretty impressive. Governor Gary Herbert soared to reelection over minor third-party candidates.
However, the race to watch here was for Senate. Hoping to avoid the fate of his former colleague Bob Bennett, Senator Orrin Hatch left the GOP to run on his own. The tea party went after Hatch because of his extensive bipartisan work with the late Teddy Kennedy. However, by skipping the GOP Convention to run as Independent, he may have only postponed his fate. Democrats did not run a candidate; some say that Hatch made a deal with Democratic officials in the state. Because no real Democrat ran, Hatch was hoping to build a coalition of moderate Republicans and Democrats. However, tonight it looks like we can report that Congressman Jason Chaffetz, the Republican, will be making history by defeating Utah's longest serving Senator. Even with high name recognition and a solid effort, Hatch couldn't withstand the overwhelming Republican coattails.


Rachel: Next we have Montana. This is another sort of mixed-bag state where both parties have won important races. As you pointed out earlier, Chris, Governor Romney has always had a certain electoral prowess out west; that also hols true for Montana. While McCain only carried Montana with less than 50% in 2008, the President's standing there has certainly eroded. The AP says that Romney will win there by about 9 points.
There was a great amount of ballot-crossing among Montana voters as well. In the Senate race, Senator Jon Tester has won by about 12 points over an almost perennial Republican, Steve Daines.
In the House race, Governor Brian Schweitzer, who was considered to be on the President's short-list for VP this year, will be elected to Congress for Montana's at-large seat. Schweitzer, like Governor Dave Freudnethal in next-door Wyoming, was a popular term-limited Governor who opted to run for the House. Schweitzer makes a strong Congressional debut, winning just under 60% of the vote.
Finally, Congressman Denny Rehberg will assume the Governorship. He defeats AG Steve Bullock. So again, in Montana, we pretty much have victories for both parties.





(I didn't get to IA Sad )
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Snowstalker
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« Reply #567 on: August 18, 2011, 10:58:42 pm »
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Wow. I must have forgotten just how much Romney can do in Utah.
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#Ready4Nixon
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« Reply #568 on: August 18, 2011, 10:59:54 pm »
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Rom-ney! Rom-ney! Rom-ney!
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #569 on: August 19, 2011, 05:48:02 am »
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thanks again Wink
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #570 on: August 19, 2011, 06:48:57 pm »
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Chris: Another state that was more close this time around was Iowa. Obama carried it in 2008 handily by about 10 points. Well, Governor Romney was hoping that he could capitalize on Senator Thune's midwestern appeal there. While Iowa was more competitive, we can say that Obama will be retaining it by about 6 points.
We only have 1 notable House race there. Congressmen Leonard Boswell and Tom Latham were thrown into the same district as Iowa had to ax one of its seats after the census. Latham was a Republican who always enjoyed strong support from Independents; tonight, in somewhat of an upset, he will be defeating Boswell for that newly-drawn, central-Iowa 3rd district.


Rachel: We have results from Idaho. No shocks; the Governor easily wins 4 more electoral votes. There were no other major races here and both of Idaho's GOP Congressman will be easily reelected.


Chris: Finally, despite overwhelming support for Obama/Beebe in the Arkansas delta, Romney will be winning the Razorback state. Eh, at least Democrats picked up a Congressional seat there.


Rachel: When it rains, it certainly pours; we have even more bad news for Democrats. We can project that the key state of Florida will end up in Romney's camp. Republicans ran a great operation there and some criticized Obama's effort there as lazy and lacking urgency. In any case, this is a major blow to the President and it truly does complicate his path to 270.


« Last Edit: August 19, 2011, 07:13:51 pm by MilesC56 »Logged


Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #571 on: August 19, 2011, 06:57:21 pm »
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ROMNEY- 240
OBAMA- 187
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Snowstalker
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« Reply #572 on: August 19, 2011, 07:00:02 pm »
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You messed up with the Iowa percentages. Tongue
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #573 on: August 19, 2011, 07:22:58 pm »
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Fixed.
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #574 on: August 19, 2011, 09:41:32 pm »
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Romney wins FL and AR... I thought Obama could take AR =/
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
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