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Author Topic: 2011 and Beyond...  (Read 102465 times)
Miles
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« Reply #550 on: August 18, 2011, 01:47:58 pm »
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Woah, Obama did worse than I expected in the Dakotas. Guess Thune helped a lot more than I expected.

It may seem like a lot, but in 2004, Bush got 60% in SD and 62% in ND.

So Romney outperforms Bush by 8% in SD and 2% in ND. I think that's reasonable considering Thune's home-state effect.
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« Reply #551 on: August 18, 2011, 01:50:04 pm »
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Yeah. Obama slightly overperformed as well due to McCain's opposition to ethanol.
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« Reply #552 on: August 18, 2011, 03:14:49 pm »
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A Romney victory in Missouri is a good sign.
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Miles
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« Reply #553 on: August 18, 2011, 04:28:10 pm »
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Up next:

-IA
-CO
-MT
-UT
-AR (official AP call)
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« Reply #554 on: August 18, 2011, 04:30:29 pm »
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Up next:

-IA
-CO
-MT
-UT
-AR (official AP call)

that'll be today??

I hope Conrad wins... he's one of my favourite senators.
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #555 on: August 18, 2011, 04:34:30 pm »
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Up next:

-IA
-CO
-MT
-UT
-AR (official AP call)

that'll be today??

I hope Conrad wins... he's one of my favourite senators.

Probably not today; I'll be traveling tomorrow, so I'll shoot for Saturday. I'll post what I can tonight as well.

I'll try to get IA, MT and UT up tonight. How's that?
« Last Edit: August 18, 2011, 04:36:48 pm by MilesC56 »Logged


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« Reply #556 on: August 18, 2011, 07:29:52 pm »
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Up next:

-IA
-CO
-MT
-UT
-AR (official AP call)

that'll be today??

I hope Conrad wins... he's one of my favourite senators.

Probably not today; I'll be traveling tomorrow, so I'll shoot for Saturday. I'll post what I can tonight as well.

I'll try to get IA, MT and UT up tonight. How's that?

That's enough Wink Thanks. UT should be really interesting
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #557 on: August 18, 2011, 10:36:02 pm »
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Chris: Now lets go Utah. As a Mormon, this was like a home-state to Governor Romney. As you would expect, it was no contest at the Presidential level. Romney beat the President by a better than 3-to-1 margin. 'Pretty impressive. Governor Gary Herbert soared to reelection over minor third-party candidates.
However, the race to watch here was for Senate. Hoping to avoid the fate of his former colleague Bob Bennett, Senator Orrin Hatch left the GOP to run on his own. The tea party went after Hatch because of his extensive bipartisan work with the late Teddy Kennedy. However, by skipping the GOP Convention to run as Independent, he may have only postponed his fate. Democrats did not run a candidate; some say that Hatch made a deal with Democratic officials in the state. Because no real Democrat ran, Hatch was hoping to build a coalition of moderate Republicans and Democrats. However, tonight it looks like we can report that Congressman Jason Chaffetz, the Republican, will be making history by defeating Utah's longest serving Senator. Even with high name recognition and a solid effort, Hatch couldn't withstand the overwhelming Republican coattails.


Rachel: Next we have Montana. This is another sort of mixed-bag state where both parties have won important races. As you pointed out earlier, Chris, Governor Romney has always had a certain electoral prowess out west; that also hols true for Montana. While McCain only carried Montana with less than 50% in 2008, the President's standing there has certainly eroded. The AP says that Romney will win there by about 9 points.
There was a great amount of ballot-crossing among Montana voters as well. In the Senate race, Senator Jon Tester has won by about 12 points over an almost perennial Republican, Steve Daines.
In the House race, Governor Brian Schweitzer, who was considered to be on the President's short-list for VP this year, will be elected to Congress for Montana's at-large seat. Schweitzer, like Governor Dave Freudnethal in next-door Wyoming, was a popular term-limited Governor who opted to run for the House. Schweitzer makes a strong Congressional debut, winning just under 60% of the vote.
Finally, Congressman Denny Rehberg will assume the Governorship. He defeats AG Steve Bullock. So again, in Montana, we pretty much have victories for both parties.





(I didn't get to IA Sad )
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« Reply #558 on: August 18, 2011, 10:58:42 pm »
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Wow. I must have forgotten just how much Romney can do in Utah.
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Cathcon
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« Reply #559 on: August 18, 2011, 10:59:54 pm »
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Rom-ney! Rom-ney! Rom-ney!
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« Reply #560 on: August 19, 2011, 05:48:02 am »
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thanks again Wink
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Miles
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« Reply #561 on: August 19, 2011, 06:48:57 pm »
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Chris: Another state that was more close this time around was Iowa. Obama carried it in 2008 handily by about 10 points. Well, Governor Romney was hoping that he could capitalize on Senator Thune's midwestern appeal there. While Iowa was more competitive, we can say that Obama will be retaining it by about 6 points.
We only have 1 notable House race there. Congressmen Leonard Boswell and Tom Latham were thrown into the same district as Iowa had to ax one of its seats after the census. Latham was a Republican who always enjoyed strong support from Independents; tonight, in somewhat of an upset, he will be defeating Boswell for that newly-drawn, central-Iowa 3rd district.


Rachel: We have results from Idaho. No shocks; the Governor easily wins 4 more electoral votes. There were no other major races here and both of Idaho's GOP Congressman will be easily reelected.


Chris: Finally, despite overwhelming support for Obama/Beebe in the Arkansas delta, Romney will be winning the Razorback state. Eh, at least Democrats picked up a Congressional seat there.


Rachel: When it rains, it certainly pours; we have even more bad news for Democrats. We can project that the key state of Florida will end up in Romney's camp. Republicans ran a great operation there and some criticized Obama's effort there as lazy and lacking urgency. In any case, this is a major blow to the President and it truly does complicate his path to 270.


« Last Edit: August 19, 2011, 07:13:51 pm by MilesC56 »Logged


Miles
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« Reply #562 on: August 19, 2011, 06:57:21 pm »
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ROMNEY- 240
OBAMA- 187
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« Reply #563 on: August 19, 2011, 07:00:02 pm »
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You messed up with the Iowa percentages. Tongue
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Miles
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« Reply #564 on: August 19, 2011, 07:22:58 pm »
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Fixed.
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« Reply #565 on: August 19, 2011, 09:41:32 pm »
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Romney wins FL and AR... I thought Obama could take AR =/
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
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« Reply #566 on: August 21, 2011, 07:28:28 am »
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Looking at the map and the states that are to declare, I can't see how Romney gets the extra 30 votes.

By the Way Great Timeline.
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« Reply #567 on: August 21, 2011, 08:40:35 am »
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Looking at the map and the states that are to declare, I can't see how Romney gets the extra 30 votes.

By the Way Great Timeline.


Assuming the Pacific Northwest will go Democratic, Romney needs all three of North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada to win. (I'm counting Alaska as being in the Romney column already).

However, if Romney can flip Oregon (can he?) his path to 270 becomes that much easier. The problem is that of this quartet, all four states are trending Democratic. Romney shouldn't give up hope yet; he can still pull this out.
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« Reply #568 on: August 21, 2011, 08:44:09 am »
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Are the ones with the 30%type shading being counted?

Strange. Even if Romney loses, Id call it a good Tepublican year when looking at the map.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #569 on: August 21, 2011, 10:03:41 am »
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Are the ones with the 30%type shading being counted?


No; the results from those states are still pending.

I told Julio this the other day, but just so that everyone knows: I had some hardware issues with my laptop. Until I get a new part for it, about 4-8 days, I can't update the TL. I'm working off the campus computers, but all my maps are on my laptop Tongue.
« Last Edit: August 21, 2011, 10:15:38 am by MilesC56 »Logged


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« Reply #570 on: August 21, 2011, 12:18:31 pm »
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Looking at the map and the states that are to declare, I can't see how Romney gets the extra 30 votes.

By the Way Great Timeline.


Assuming the Pacific Northwest will go Democratic, Romney needs all three of North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada to win. (I'm counting Alaska as being in the Romney column already).

However, if Romney can flip Oregon (can he?) his path to 270 becomes that much easier. The problem is that of this quartet, all four states are trending Democratic. Romney shouldn't give up hope yet; he can still pull this out.
Ah, since it was shaded, I thought Nevada and North Carolina had already been called, so I thought it was pretty much impossible for Romney to win. Looks like it's still plausible.
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« Reply #571 on: August 21, 2011, 06:42:52 pm »
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I'd love to see Oregon go for Romney. Miles are you going use new California congressional districts for your TL since I know originally you were keeping the 2001-2011 ones intact?
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #572 on: August 21, 2011, 06:51:52 pm »
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I'd love to see Oregon go for Romney. Miles are you going use new California congressional districts for your TL since I know originally you were keeping the 2001-2011 ones intact?

Yes, I am. Only 1 district will be flipping though.
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« Reply #573 on: August 22, 2011, 03:02:10 pm »
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Looking at the map and the states that are to declare, I can't see how Romney gets the extra 30 votes.

By the Way Great Timeline.


Assuming the Pacific Northwest will go Democratic, Romney needs all three of North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada to win. (I'm counting Alaska as being in the Romney column already).

However, if Romney can flip Oregon (can he?) his path to 270 becomes that much easier. The problem is that of this quartet, all four states are trending Democratic. Romney shouldn't give up hope yet; he can still pull this out.
Ah, since it was shaded, I thought Nevada and North Carolina had already been called, so I thought it was pretty much impossible for Romney to win. Looks like it's still plausible.

If North carolina's votes aren't already counted though I think Romney might pull it out as he does have some pull in the west.
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« Reply #574 on: August 25, 2011, 10:38:48 pm »
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...
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
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