2011 and Beyond...
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 19, 2024, 01:18:04 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  2011 and Beyond...
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 21 22 23 24 25 [26]
Author Topic: 2011 and Beyond...  (Read 136953 times)
Snowstalker Mk. II
Snowstalker
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,414
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -4.35

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #625 on: October 09, 2011, 11:12:35 AM »

A bit disappointed at McConnell's retirement though. I'd have liked to see him go down.
Logged
Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,802
Spain


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -9.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #626 on: October 09, 2011, 04:11:53 PM »

I still support Baucus
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #627 on: October 26, 2011, 04:04:41 AM »

Sorry that I'm egregiously behind on this, but I'll have an update up in a few days.
Logged
Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,802
Spain


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -9.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #628 on: October 28, 2011, 10:42:05 AM »

Would love to see an Alaska Senate race update! And despite all the libs here rooting for Palin's Senate loss, count me as someone who hopes you let that Senate race unfold as fairly and objectively as possible Wink

Translate: if you make a democra win in AK, I'll cal you a liberal troll hahaha...
Logged
Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,802
Spain


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -9.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #629 on: October 28, 2011, 07:19:05 PM »

YEEEEEEEEEEEEES, Sarah Palin being defeated by a liberal anti-american democrat in her own state!!

That sounds great

Translation: if you make Palin win in AK, I'll call you a conservative troll hahaha...

No, I know Miles is a conservative democrat, but not a conservative troll...
...
...
...

well, not really. if he makes Palin win, I'll call him a conservatroll xD
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #630 on: October 28, 2011, 10:50:31 PM »

Retirements shake Senate Democratic Caucus


Just as Senator Mitch McConnell’s retirement threatens cause intra-party upheaval on the GOP side, three top Democrats announced their retirements as well, sending shockwaves through the Democratic Caucus. For decades, Senators Jay Rockefeller, Carl Levin and Dick Durbin have been among the greatest power players in their caucus; this week, this trio announced that they would not seek reelection ahead of the 2014 midterms. Still, all three remain popular in their states. “Going forward, this will definitely mean that some of our newer members will be able to move up through the leadership ranks and make names for themselves” said one Democratic source “still, the policies and legislation that Dick, Jay and Carl have crafted over the years have been central to our party’s message. They’ll all be missed.”

In Illinois, Senator Durbin iterated his need to “spend more time with his family,” though he said that he’d stay active in local politics as well as national party causes. “After my time in the Senate, I will not stop working for the Democratic Party and I will keep working for a better Illinois.” Durbin’s approval rating is at a strong 52% with 35% disapproving. The popular Illinois Attorney General, Lisa Madigan has hinted at running in a possible open-seat contest and she may now have her chance. DSCC Chair Patty Murray seemed confident that the party would ultimately hold Durbin’s seat “We’ve learned from our mistakes in 2010; I assure you, Illinois will not be sending another Republican to the US Senate,” as she alluded to Senator Mark Kirk, a moderate Republican who was able to defeat a very flawed opponent to win President Obama’s old Illinois Senate seat. “Dick has been an excellent representative of his state throughout his career. I’m very excited about the possibly of Lisa Madigan.” No major Republicans have yet to emerge. President Obama remains decent ground in his home state with 51% approving of his job to 40% who don’t.

While Illinois may be easy for Democrats to maintain, West Virginia and Michigan may be harder. “While West Virginia is a Democratic state, it’s also a very conservative state” said RSCC Chair Richard Burr. “During his last term, Senator Rockefeller skewed far to the left of his state with regards to healthcare and fiscal matters. I think the people of West Virginia would agree with me. That’s probably why Jay retired.”
Rockefeller latest approval rating was 50% with 39% not approving; still, President Obama remains deeply disliked among West Virginians, as only 31% like him to 59% who don’t. Rockefeller, along with Senator Joe Manchin, along with Congressmen Mike Oliverio and Nick Rahall, endorsed Congressman Carte Goodwin for Senate. “Our state is ready for a younger generation of leaders like Carte. In the Senate, I was impressed with his diligent work, even if it was only on an interim basis. During his time in the Senate, he continued the good work of his predecessor, our dear Senator Robert Byrd. In the House, he has been a strong voice for his district and the people of central West Virginia. That’s why I’m endorsing him; while I may be leaving the Senate, with Carte, I can leave the people of West Virginia in good hands.”
While the GOP has had a historically weak bench in West Virginia, party leaders have coalesced around Bill Maloney; a conservative businessman. Former Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito has ruled out a run.

Finally, of the trio, the contest for Levin’s seat may be the most challenging for Democrats. Despite President Obama’s win in 2012, his approval lukewarm, at a 45/44 spread; Senator Debbie Stabenow, who won a competitive 2012 race, is better off, at 49/38. On both sides, the primaries are expected to be competitive. Republican Congressman Thad McCotter is gearing up to face off against fellow Representative Justin Amash. Amash, a tea party candidate, is expected to run to the right of the establishment McCotter. Rather than seeking the open seat himself, former Rep. Pete Hoeskstra, who lost to Stabenow, is now the Chair of the state Republican Party; he’s expected to back McCotter. On the Democratic side, Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero is set to run against former Congressman Gary Peters, who was a redistricting victim in 2012. Neither Levin nor the state party is endorsing in the primary.

MSNBC's Chuck Todd offered his analysis, "Overall, 2014 looks to be a troublesome year for senior Democrats. In addition to these three retirements, Senator Max Baucus is facing a serious primary from his left in Montana." He added "don't forget that Senator Tim Johnson has not announced his election plans. South Dakota would be a very hard state to hold for Democrats. Finally, we knowthat three senior Democrats Senators, Kerry, Harkin and Landrieu are running for reelection."
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #631 on: October 29, 2011, 05:22:51 PM »

MORE SENATE RETIREMENTS: ALEXANDER, INHOFE, MERKLEY OUT, JOHNSON STAYS IN



Ahead of the midterms, three more Senators announced that they would be forgoing reelection. (This should be all the retirements...)

In Tennessee, 2-term Senator Lamar Alexander, said that he will be retiring in 2014. Alexander considered to be another key player in the GOP caucus, serving as Caucus Conference Chair. Alexander citied the slow Senatorial process in his speech. "During my time as Governor of Tennessee, I took direct and decisive actions to help the people of my state. In the Senate,  there is no such sense of urgency and intent. Throughout my terms here, that is what has most frustrated me. The process here is more engineered towards making quick deals and ignoring real debate rather than actually helping the American people."
The Republicans remain favored to hold Alexander's seat. Senator Bob Corker, who lost his primary in 2012, could be a possible candidate. Representatives Marsha Blackburn and Steven Fincher are also mulling bids. Democrats control Tennessee's other seat, with Senator Bart Gordon; its unlikely that they'd swipe both seats.

Inhofe cited his old age, 78, as his main reason for retirement. As with Tennessee, Republicans have a strong head start here. President Obama's approvals are at a horrendous 27/61 in Oklahoma. "The President would damage any Democratic there beyond repair" said RSCC Chair Richard Burr "this seat should be safely in Republican hands. The Republican party has never been stronger in Oklahoma." The Republican frontrunner is Governor Mary Fallin, who has declared her candidacy; she has a favorable 53/37 approval rating. The only 2 Democrats whop could be competitive would be former Governor Brad Henry and Congressman Dan Boren. Henry, who has a strong 55/33 favorable rating, is expected to seek his old job back.
Still, Fallin would start strong; she'd lead Henry, if he ran for Senate, by 48-44 and Boren by 47-41.

While freshman Democrat Jeff Merkley is retiring, he sees his retirement as more of a 'job transfer.' When the Governor of Oregon, John Kitzhaber, announced that he would not seek a 4th term, Merkley said that he would run for Governor rather than a second Senate term. In his speech, Merkley shared many of Alexander's frustrations with the Senate. "In 2008, the people of Oregon sent e to Washington to help implement bold changes. While I value every day I spend here representing them, the Senate itself is not geared towards progress. I think I can better serve the the people of Oregon in the Governor's office."

Democratic strategists breathed a sigh of relief when Senator Tim Johnson announced his plans to seek a 4th term. Johnson remains personally popular in an otherwise Republican-leaning state. Former Governor Mike Rounds, a Republican, is considering a race. Pollster Tom Jensen said "Democrats are very lucky Johnson is running again; he leads Rounds 49-40. While South Dakota is still not a slam-dunk for Democrats, Johnson is very formidable. By comparison, if he had decided to retire, Rounds would be up 52-34 in an open-seat contest against a generic Democrat. The distinction is obvious, a Johnson retirement would have been devastating to Democrats" Jensen added "In an open-seat contest, Rounds would have led former Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin by a slimmer 48-43. Finally, if Rep. Kristi Noem were to run against Johnson, she'd start out trailing 50-40." Herseth-Sandlin has ruled out running for elected office in 2014.

In addition to these retirements, several Republicans face competitive primaries. Senator Jeff Sessions (AL), Pat Roberts (KS) and Lindsay Graham (SC) all face primaries to their right. Only one Democrat, Max Baucus (MT), has drawn a strong primary opponent.

Sessions faces tea party challenger Rick Barber, who ran for Congress in 2010. While Sessions has carved out a prominent profile as a leading conservative on the Judiciary Committee, Parker maintains that Sessions "at one time probably had our state's best interests at heart, he has become nothing more than a rank-and-file Republican, entrenched in Washington culture and special interest."

Senator Pat Roberts faces GOP House frosh Tim Huelskamp. Huelskamp was one of dozens of tea party freshmen swept in during the 2010 elections. Kansas' other Senator, Jerry  Moran, is backing Roberts. Sarah Palin and the Tea Party Express have endorsed Huelskamp.

Senator Graham has been on the tea party 'traitor list' for quite a while. Talk show hosts, such as Mark Levin and Rush Limbaugh, have labeled Grahama as a 'weak, McCain RINO.' "Guber-Lindsay Graham voted for the bailout, he worked with Barbara Boxer on climate and he voted for both of Obama radical Supreme Court justices" said Levin. "Does this man sound like a Republican to you!? If we conservatives are going to take back our country, its not gonna be with sellouts like this! He's a Charlie Crist-type phony!" In fact, there is strong speculation that Graham may actually run as an independent. His fellow Senator, Jim DeMint, has endorsed Rep. Mick Mulvaney over Graham. In primary polling, Mulvaney leads Graham 52-43.

Open Seat Map




538.com 2014 Senate Ratings

Logged
Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,802
Spain


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -9.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #632 on: October 29, 2011, 06:40:04 PM »

Love it !
Logged
Atlas Has Shrugged
ChairmanSanchez
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 38,043
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.29, S: -5.04


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #633 on: October 29, 2011, 09:20:04 PM »

Could Hank Williams make another Senate run? With Alexander gone, the field is clear.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #634 on: October 29, 2011, 09:25:19 PM »

Could Hank Williams make another Senate run? With Alexander gone, the field is clear.

Eh, after what he said on Fox, I'm keeping him out my TL! haha

Corker would have an early lead.

Tennessee GOP Primary polling:

Corker- 43%
Blackburn- 36%
Unsure- 21%
Logged
RodPresident
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,157
Brazil


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #635 on: October 30, 2011, 11:08:45 AM »

I think that Henry should skip 2014 and try for Coburn's seat in 2016. Fallin has it on bag. A great contest will be in Texas and I can see Cornyn being primaried from the right. Democrats have a good opportunity to take Senate seat for first time in 53 years. Statewide election is also another very important thing. I can see KBH trying to get governorship as Independent.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #636 on: October 30, 2011, 01:26:36 PM »

I don't think Henry would want to run for Senate. Despite a 52/36 favorable rating, he'd still narrowly trail Tom Cole and J.C Watts in an open-seat contest.

I think you'll like my plans for TX Governor!
Logged
RodPresident
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,157
Brazil


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #637 on: October 30, 2011, 02:07:47 PM »
« Edited: November 11, 2011, 05:31:35 PM by RodPresident »

State contests will be a great thing in 2014. Great Lakes' states are going to have great disputes. Unfortunately, I think that SD is a lost cause. I'd love to see Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin trying governorship but Daugaard isn't a candidate to beat in 2014. Nebraska would be a great place to Democrats to try get a gubernatorial post, like Idaho
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #638 on: October 30, 2011, 02:12:34 PM »

My next few posts will be about Governors races; I've kinda focused on the Senate lately, but I'll switch gears.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #639 on: November 11, 2011, 01:28:06 PM »

Update this weekend.
Logged
Snowstalker Mk. II
Snowstalker
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,414
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -4.35

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #640 on: November 11, 2011, 02:05:04 PM »

I'd love to see Rick Perry go down to Julian Castro or Bill White. Smiley
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #641 on: November 11, 2011, 06:44:59 PM »

I'd love to see Rick Perry go down to Julian Castro or Bill White. Smiley
Not exactly what I have in store, but I don't think you'll be disappointed.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #642 on: November 12, 2011, 07:18:17 PM »

TEXAS SET TO BE CRUCIAL BATTLEGROUND GOV RACE



In Texas, 2014 will feature an electoral event that has not taken place since 1990: an open-seat contest for its highest statewide office. Last week, Governor Rick Perry, who has led Texas for 14 years, announced his choice to retire, though he would legally entitled to seek a 4th term.

"I thought that this would be a good time. It was hard for me to turn down to the opportunity to serve the people of Texas for another 4 years. The growth that Texas has experienced since I took over in 2000 has been remarkable; I can only hope that my succotash continues that legacy of low taxes and economic success."
"Part of the reason Perry decided to hang up the phone is that he isn't a particularly popular Governor" said PPP's Tom Jensen. "Our last survey showed only 38% of Texas approved of him while 48% didn't. Even worse, only 26% wanted him to run again in 2014 versus 53% who wanted him to step aside."

Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst announced his plans to seek a promotion. Normally, he would be the frontrunner, but he has drawn a challenge from his right in Solicter-General Ted Cruz. "The primary is going to be brutal" said one Texas GOP insider "both men are great fundraisers." Ted Cruz promises a "truly conservative vision for Texas" and maintains that Dewhusrt is a career Republican politician. "As Governor, I won't take part in the backroom deals that Dewhurst has done. I've spent my whole career arguing for conservative, limited-government; I'm prepared to take that fight all the way to the Texas Governor's Mansion." Dewhurst counted by pointing to his own accomplishments; "working with Governor Perry, Texas has weathered the recession very well. Our unemployment rate is under the national average and our agricultural and technological sectors are still going strong."
Senators Cornyn and Bush as well as Governor Perry have all endorsed Dewhurst while the Club for Growth, the Tea Party Express and Americans for Prosperity have backed Cruz. Governors Jindal (LA) and Martinez (NM) have both endorsed Cruz while Fallin (OK) is endorsing Dewhurst.

The Democratic primary seems to be just as entertaining. Cecile Richards, daughter of the late Governor Ann Richards is running against former Congressman Max Sandlin. Richards was the President of Planned Parenthood; while she's more in touch with the Democratic base, some see the more conservative-minded Sandlin as more electable in the general. "Ever since my mother left office, Republicans have been hard at work trying to take the state backwards. I'm running because I think the Democratic party has a lot to offer Texas and I want to put Texas back on the right track by picking up where my mother left off." Sandlin plans on winning the general election by reaching out to normally Republican-leaning voters. "In Congress, I represented rural Texas, thats where I come from and that's what I will emphasize. While the Democratic party in Texas is growing , we must stay true to our rural roots. I want to take a common-sense, non-ideological approach to governing; that's what my record will show."
Sandlin, a hunting enthusiast, has already secured one crucial bargaining chip in the election: the NRA's endorsement. Sandlin also has endorsements from Governors Taylor of Mississippi and Senators Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor of Arkansas. Still, many in the party state leadership have endorsed Richards, including Congressmen Sheila Jackson-Lee, Gene Greene and Lloyd Doggett.
Logged
Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,802
Spain


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -9.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #643 on: November 12, 2011, 07:28:08 PM »

Cecile Richards would be a great governor, but I'm not sure Texans would vote for her. Max Sandlin is a Joe Manchin kind of democrat... A DINO, but better than a insane republican.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #644 on: November 12, 2011, 09:32:44 PM »

IN OH, MA, BROWNS SEEK COMEBACKS



2012 was not a good year to be a Senator with the last name "Brown"; both Scott Brown of Massachusetts and Sherrod Brown lost their reelection bids. Still, 2014 may bring comeback chances for both of them. Both Massachusetts and Ohio will feature open-seat Gubernatorial races; Governor Duval Patrick, rather than seeking a third term, will take over the DNC in 2015, while Governor Ted Strickland of Ohio is term-limited.
"The good news for both Browns is that, while they were both voted out of office in 2012, voters in both states still see them positively" says Jensen. "Scott Brown stands at a good 48/35 favorable spread. Sherrod Brown is decently popular as well, standing at 45/35."

In 2010, Ohio was the closest Gubernatorial races in the county; Strickland won by less than 1,000 votes.  John Kasich, the Republican, is running again for Governor. What may help Brown is that Legislative Republicans in the Assembly have proposed anti-union legislation that has been widely unpopular; Republican majorities are so large that they were able to override Strickland's veto. Early on, Kasich endorsed this legislation; that may hurt him this time around. The economy in Ohio is also improving, so the overall environment will not be as hostile towards Democrats; unemployment has dropped from 9.6% in 2010 to 8.0%.
PPP has Brown up 5% in Kasich, 45% to 40%. Voters are mum on Strickland, giving him a 46/50 approval rating; while that may sound subpar, Assembly Republicans incredibly unpopular, at 34/52. 

In Massachusetts, Governor Deval Patrick remains popular, posting a solid 51% approval rating while only 37% disapprove. Still, President Obama announced that he tapped Patrick to be the next DNC Chairman in 2015, when current Chair Debbie Wasserman-Schultz steps down; this prompted Patrick to forgo seeking a 3rd term. Patrick's Lieutenant Governor, Tim Murray said thet he will seek the promotion to Governor. In polling, Brown posts a slight lead over Murray, 47% to 43%. "While Massachusetts is a Democratic state, we have seen that its voters are still open to supporting moderate Republicans for statewide offices; Governors Romney and Weld come to mind. We think that Scott Brown is such a Republican. Voters have said that while they prefer Democrats on the federal level, they'd be willing to vote Republican on the more local level" said RGA Chair Bobby Jindal. "The Massachusetts Gubernatorial race was competitive in 2010 and I think that, with Scott, Republicans can do well in the Bay State this cycle."
Logged
FEMA Camp Administrator
Cathcon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,279
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #645 on: November 12, 2011, 09:37:20 PM »

If Scott Brown wins in 2014, will moderates be hoping for a 2016 campaign? While I wouldn't support Brown in the primaries, I've found the prospect of a Brown campaign interesting and I merely liked the idea that he had won Ted Kennedy's seat. I hope there's a future for him as a running-mate, though I doubt the GOP would trust another Massachusetts Republican on a national ticket in 2016. Hoping for a good Southern or Mid-Western Conservative in 2016.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #646 on: November 25, 2011, 05:50:00 AM »

'Ya know, just to expedite things, I think I'll just jump to Election Day 2014.

...I'll have a few updates coming.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #647 on: November 28, 2011, 01:00:50 PM »

All right, I have final exams fast approaching next week, so I probably won't get to focus on updates. 'Gotta prioritize! I'll be done with exams by December 8th though.

I HAVEN'T FORGOTTEN ABOUT THIS TL!! Smiley I have some good stuff down the line!

For most of December and January, I'll be back and forth between Baton Rouge, New Orleans and Charlotte, but I'll have plenty of time for the TL and Election Night 2014. I'm hoping to be done with Election Night 2014 by early/mid-January so I can move to the 2016 Presidential race!

Cheers,
Miles


Until then....

Logged
morgieb
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,612
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #648 on: December 14, 2011, 02:56:26 AM »

Miles, what was the original 2020 scenario?

Also, are you gonna restart this?
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,324
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #649 on: December 26, 2011, 08:24:03 PM »

Miles, what was the original 2020 scenario?

Also, are you gonna restart this?

I'm actually making an entirely new TL, but based off this storyline.

My very first TL is over in the 2010 Senate prediction threads. I'll have to do some digging for it; it wasn't as detailed as this one. Basically, I had Charlie Crist/Blanche Lincoln (D) beating Paul Ryan/Scott Brown (R) for President in 2020.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 21 22 23 24 25 [26]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.064 seconds with 12 queries.