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Author Topic: 2011 and Beyond...  (Read 56262 times)
A.G. Snowstalker
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« Reply #625 on: October 01, 2011, 06:20:47 pm »
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Begich is a Blue Dog, though. (Though chances are you're sarcastic)

I'd love to see Palin lose to, say, Sean Parnell in the primary.
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« Reply #626 on: October 01, 2011, 06:44:41 pm »
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Begich is a Blue Dog, though. (Though chances are you're sarcastic)

I'd love to see Palin lose to, say, Sean Parnell in the primary.

Probably would to...
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« Reply #627 on: October 01, 2011, 07:24:56 pm »
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Begich is a Blue Dog, though. (Though chances are you're sarcastic)

I'd love to see Palin lose to, say, Sean Parnell in the primary.

Probably would to...

Parnell has ruled out a Senate run and he's running for Governor again; I should have mentioned that in the article.
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RodPresident
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« Reply #628 on: October 01, 2011, 08:08:05 pm »
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Sean Parnell'14 = Charlie Christ'10...
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« Reply #629 on: October 08, 2011, 07:36:58 pm »
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MCCONNELL OUT, T-PAW IN



The Senate Republicans will be electing a new floor leader at the beginning of the 114th Congress; their Leader, Mitch McConnell will not be seeking a 6th term. The Kentucky lawmaker said that "there comes a time in all our careers where it just seems logical and right to set aside. I think that this just happens to be my time. Elaine and I have just decided that this is the right time. While I look forward to leading my caucus through this last year or so,  I'll always stand behind what Senate Republicans were able to accomplish under my tenure."

Still, weak numbers at home could have been a driving factor towards McConnell's decision. Only 40% of Kentucky voters approve of his job while 51% disagree. He had 2 potential opponents who were seriously considering  challenging him. KY Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, seen as a rising star in state politics, and Congressman Ben Chandler could have given McConnell a tough race; in the polls, he only led Grimes 43-41 and he ran slightly behind Chandler at 45-42. In purely hypothetical polling, he would trail Governor Steve Beshear 51-41; the popular Governor has ruled out running for Senate.

Of the Democrats, Grimes seems more enthusiastic about mounting a Senate run. "In 2012, Kentucky elections were among the smoothest and mus budget-efficient in the country. In the two and a half years since I have been Secretary of State, we have heavily invested to combat voter fraud. My record speaks for itself and I think Kentucky voters would agree with me." Grimes posts a 41/27 job approval rating and Chandler has a similar 42/29 favorable rating. Potential Republicans who could hold McConnell's seat include Congressman Brett Guthrie and Agriculture Commissioner Richie Farmer. 

Top Senate Republicans are already trying to whip votes from their colleagues in the upcoming contest to fill McConnell's place as caucus leader. The two front-runners likely to emerge are Senators John Thune and Jon Kyl. After Thune's Vice-Presidential run in 2012, he has accumulated tangible clout among the Republican establishment. Also, Thune said that he'd be "inclined against" a future Presidential run, meaning that he sees himself hanging around the Senate for a while. Kyl would be the more logical and conventional choice, but has indicated that he may not be interested in seeking McConnell's job.

In Minnesota, Senator Betty McCollum has drawn a top-tier challenger in former Governor Tim Pawlenty. McCollum was appointed in 2011 after the death of Senator Al Franken. In 2012, she won the seat in her own right with 53% of the vote against another strong opponent, former Senator Norm Coleman. However, in 2012 both Minnesota seats were up for election and McCollum was buoyed by her downballot position from the very popular Senator Amy Klobuchar, who won with 66%. Before then, McCollum represented a heavily Democratic St. Paul district in the House.

"The bottom line is that Senator McCollum has not been an independent voice for our state. I've served the people of Minnesota for 8 years and I've been going around the state listening to their concerns and needs. They want a real leader for them in Washington who won't just be a rubber stamp for the President. Senator McCollum is not that leader. During her time in the House, she voted with Nancy Pelosi on virtually everything and she is maintaining a similarly far-left liberal record in the Senate. As Minnesotans, we can do better. That's why I'm running for US Senate. As a Senator, I will work to lower our national debt and create a sustainable jobs outlook not through loyalty to my party, but by bringing mt own solutions to the table."

Senator McCollum's campaign released a statement blasting Pawlenty. "From protecting the rich to restricting woman's rights, Governor Pawlenty's record points in one direction: backward. If elected, Pawlenty will work with the far-right Congressional Republicans to turn back the clock on what Congressional Democrats have accomplished, such as affordable healthcare for all Americans."

SurveyUSA's last poll has McCollum and Pawlenty tied at 44% apiece.  Similarly, Minnesotans are pretty equally divided on both candidates; McCollum has a neutral 43/39 job approval rating to Palwnety's 44/41 favorable rating. Senator Amy Klobuchar stands at 62/25 and Governor Dayton is on positive ground at 50/42.
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A.G. Snowstalker
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« Reply #630 on: October 08, 2011, 08:07:24 pm »
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Oh, Pawlenty.

I'd love to see him become a Harold Stassen, running until he keels over in 2044 or so.
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Miles
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« Reply #631 on: October 08, 2011, 11:50:38 pm »
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PROGRESSIVES DRAFT BAUCUS PRIMARY OUSTER


Montana liberals have found a candidate to run against Senator Max Baucus; Montana Superintendent of Education Denise Juneau will be challenging the 6-term Senator. Juneau said that "Montana working families are being left behind and no longer will their votes be taken for granted. I've seen this first-hand as I've steered our educational system; too many of our students come from families that are struggling to get by. That needs to stop. While Senator Baucus has garnered clout during his 36 years in Washington, it seems that too often he forgets the real and obvious struggles that face Montanans every day. Our state needs a new voice and a Senator that isn't entrenched in Beltway culture. "

Adam Green, the chairman of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, was instrumental in drafting Juneau. "At the PCCC, we're committed to electing candidates committed to taking bold progressive values to Washington. We're thrilled that Denise is running in Montana. She has an impeccable record with educational issues and, as one of Native American heritage herself, she has worked tirelessly to bring educational and economic opportunity to the Native American community. Senator Baucus, by contrast,  is one of the worst corporate Democrats in Washington. Montanans deserve better than a Republican masquerading as a Democrat; that's truly what Senator Baucus has become. Just look at his disastrous tenure as Chairman of the Finance Committee; his healthcare bill was everything the Republicans could ask for, it was a total giveaway to the very corporations that stuff Baucus' pockets. In the Senate, Denise will support progressive legislation that will truly and tangibly help the middle class, not just the rich."

When asked who he'd be endorsing, or even if he'd run for Senate, Congressman Brian Schweitzer supported Baucus. "There's no chance I'll run for Senate. I'm quite happy where I am. In the House, along with my friend Dave Freudenthal of Wyoming, I try to bring a unique westerner's perspective to our caucus. Senator Baucus has been in tough races before and he's prevailed. I don't think this will be any different." 53% are happy with his performance in Congress while 34% aren't.

The numbers are not in Baucus' favor. According to PPP, only 41% approve of his job to 52% who disagree. "Numbers like tht are bad, but aren't insurmountable" says Tom Jensen. "Baucus has had quite a fall from grace since he was reelected in 2008 with 72%. 'No question that his lead role in the healthcare debate was toxic." The Republican frontrunner is Steve Daines, who lost to Senator Jon Tester by 13 points in 2012. "Still, despite that loss, he remains competitive; I don't think Daines' 2012 loss will be an indicator for his 2014 performance. First, Tester is considerably more popular than Baucus and was a much harder opponent, as Tester stands at a very healthy 56/38 spread. Second, Daines was never unpopular, his own numbers are positive at 36/29."

Going into 2014, Daines would start out with a 43-39 lead over Baucus and he'd be up 40-38 on Juneau. "This should be the Juneau campaign's central argument: despite her more liberal positions, she actually does better in the general election. As of now, she has an electability advantage." For comparison, Schweitzer would post a 55-32 lead over Daines.  

If there is a glimmer of hope for Baucus, its that he's on good terms with Montana Democrats...for now. 60% of Democrats approve of his job while only 33% don't. "Still" Jensen says "Mike Castle and Lisa Murkowski had similar numbers with their own parties going into 2010."
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« Reply #632 on: October 08, 2011, 11:53:16 pm »
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Why am I not surprised Grimes is running? Tongue
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Miles
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« Reply #633 on: October 08, 2011, 11:55:08 pm »
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Why am I not surprised Grimes is running? Tongue


I'm a huge fan of her's Smiley

Not that my personal opinion will influence the outcome or anything...
« Last Edit: October 08, 2011, 11:57:25 pm by MilesC56 »Logged


A.G. Snowstalker
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« Reply #634 on: October 09, 2011, 11:12:35 am »
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A bit disappointed at McConnell's retirement though. I'd have liked to see him go down.
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« Reply #635 on: October 09, 2011, 04:11:53 pm »
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I still support Baucus
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
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« Reply #636 on: October 26, 2011, 04:04:41 am »
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Sorry that I'm egregiously behind on this, but I'll have an update up in a few days.
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« Reply #637 on: October 28, 2011, 10:42:05 am »
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Would love to see an Alaska Senate race update! And despite all the libs here rooting for Palin's Senate loss, count me as someone who hopes you let that Senate race unfold as fairly and objectively as possible Wink

Translate: if you make a democra win in AK, I'll cal you a liberal troll hahaha...
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
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« Reply #638 on: October 28, 2011, 07:19:05 pm »
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YEEEEEEEEEEEEES, Sarah Palin being defeated by a liberal anti-american democrat in her own state!!

That sounds great

Translation: if you make Palin win in AK, I'll call you a conservative troll hahaha...

No, I know Miles is a conservative democrat, but not a conservative troll...
...
...
...

well, not really. if he makes Palin win, I'll call him a conservatroll xD
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
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« Reply #639 on: October 28, 2011, 10:50:31 pm »
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Retirements shake Senate Democratic Caucus


Just as Senator Mitch McConnell’s retirement threatens cause intra-party upheaval on the GOP side, three top Democrats announced their retirements as well, sending shockwaves through the Democratic Caucus. For decades, Senators Jay Rockefeller, Carl Levin and Dick Durbin have been among the greatest power players in their caucus; this week, this trio announced that they would not seek reelection ahead of the 2014 midterms. Still, all three remain popular in their states. “Going forward, this will definitely mean that some of our newer members will be able to move up through the leadership ranks and make names for themselves” said one Democratic source “still, the policies and legislation that Dick, Jay and Carl have crafted over the years have been central to our party’s message. They’ll all be missed.”

In Illinois, Senator Durbin iterated his need to “spend more time with his family,” though he said that he’d stay active in local politics as well as national party causes. “After my time in the Senate, I will not stop working for the Democratic Party and I will keep working for a better Illinois.” Durbin’s approval rating is at a strong 52% with 35% disapproving. The popular Illinois Attorney General, Lisa Madigan has hinted at running in a possible open-seat contest and she may now have her chance. DSCC Chair Patty Murray seemed confident that the party would ultimately hold Durbin’s seat “We’ve learned from our mistakes in 2010; I assure you, Illinois will not be sending another Republican to the US Senate,” as she alluded to Senator Mark Kirk, a moderate Republican who was able to defeat a very flawed opponent to win President Obama’s old Illinois Senate seat. “Dick has been an excellent representative of his state throughout his career. I’m very excited about the possibly of Lisa Madigan.” No major Republicans have yet to emerge. President Obama remains decent ground in his home state with 51% approving of his job to 40% who don’t.

While Illinois may be easy for Democrats to maintain, West Virginia and Michigan may be harder. “While West Virginia is a Democratic state, it’s also a very conservative state” said RSCC Chair Richard Burr. “During his last term, Senator Rockefeller skewed far to the left of his state with regards to healthcare and fiscal matters. I think the people of West Virginia would agree with me. That’s probably why Jay retired.”
Rockefeller latest approval rating was 50% with 39% not approving; still, President Obama remains deeply disliked among West Virginians, as only 31% like him to 59% who don’t. Rockefeller, along with Senator Joe Manchin, along with Congressmen Mike Oliverio and Nick Rahall, endorsed Congressman Carte Goodwin for Senate. “Our state is ready for a younger generation of leaders like Carte. In the Senate, I was impressed with his diligent work, even if it was only on an interim basis. During his time in the Senate, he continued the good work of his predecessor, our dear Senator Robert Byrd. In the House, he has been a strong voice for his district and the people of central West Virginia. That’s why I’m endorsing him; while I may be leaving the Senate, with Carte, I can leave the people of West Virginia in good hands.”
While the GOP has had a historically weak bench in West Virginia, party leaders have coalesced around Bill Maloney; a conservative businessman. Former Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito has ruled out a run.

Finally, of the trio, the contest for Levin’s seat may be the most challenging for Democrats. Despite President Obama’s win in 2012, his approval lukewarm, at a 45/44 spread; Senator Debbie Stabenow, who won a competitive 2012 race, is better off, at 49/38. On both sides, the primaries are expected to be competitive. Republican Congressman Thad McCotter is gearing up to face off against fellow Representative Justin Amash. Amash, a tea party candidate, is expected to run to the right of the establishment McCotter. Rather than seeking the open seat himself, former Rep. Pete Hoeskstra, who lost to Stabenow, is now the Chair of the state Republican Party; he’s expected to back McCotter. On the Democratic side, Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero is set to run against former Congressman Gary Peters, who was a redistricting victim in 2012. Neither Levin nor the state party is endorsing in the primary.

MSNBC's Chuck Todd offered his analysis, "Overall, 2014 looks to be a troublesome year for senior Democrats. In addition to these three retirements, Senator Max Baucus is facing a serious primary from his left in Montana." He added "don't forget that Senator Tim Johnson has not announced his election plans. South Dakota would be a very hard state to hold for Democrats. Finally, we knowthat three senior Democrats Senators, Kerry, Harkin and Landrieu are running for reelection."
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Miles
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« Reply #640 on: October 29, 2011, 05:22:51 pm »
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MORE SENATE RETIREMENTS: ALEXANDER, INHOFE, MERKLEY OUT, JOHNSON STAYS IN



Ahead of the midterms, three more Senators announced that they would be forgoing reelection. (This should be all the retirements...)

In Tennessee, 2-term Senator Lamar Alexander, said that he will be retiring in 2014. Alexander considered to be another key player in the GOP caucus, serving as Caucus Conference Chair. Alexander citied the slow Senatorial process in his speech. "During my time as Governor of Tennessee, I took direct and decisive actions to help the people of my state. In the Senate,  there is no such sense of urgency and intent. Throughout my terms here, that is what has most frustrated me. The process here is more engineered towards making quick deals and ignoring real debate rather than actually helping the American people."
The Republicans remain favored to hold Alexander's seat. Senator Bob Corker, who lost his primary in 2012, could be a possible candidate. Representatives Marsha Blackburn and Steven Fincher are also mulling bids. Democrats control Tennessee's other seat, with Senator Bart Gordon; its unlikely that they'd swipe both seats.

Inhofe cited his old age, 78, as his main reason for retirement. As with Tennessee, Republicans have a strong head start here. President Obama's approvals are at a horrendous 27/61 in Oklahoma. "The President would damage any Democratic there beyond repair" said RSCC Chair Richard Burr "this seat should be safely in Republican hands. The Republican party has never been stronger in Oklahoma." The Republican frontrunner is Governor Mary Fallin, who has declared her candidacy; she has a favorable 53/37 approval rating. The only 2 Democrats whop could be competitive would be former Governor Brad Henry and Congressman Dan Boren. Henry, who has a strong 55/33 favorable rating, is expected to seek his old job back.
Still, Fallin would start strong; she'd lead Henry, if he ran for Senate, by 48-44 and Boren by 47-41.

While freshman Democrat Jeff Merkley is retiring, he sees his retirement as more of a 'job transfer.' When the Governor of Oregon, John Kitzhaber, announced that he would not seek a 4th term, Merkley said that he would run for Governor rather than a second Senate term. In his speech, Merkley shared many of Alexander's frustrations with the Senate. "In 2008, the people of Oregon sent e to Washington to help implement bold changes. While I value every day I spend here representing them, the Senate itself is not geared towards progress. I think I can better serve the the people of Oregon in the Governor's office."

Democratic strategists breathed a sigh of relief when Senator Tim Johnson announced his plans to seek a 4th term. Johnson remains personally popular in an otherwise Republican-leaning state. Former Governor Mike Rounds, a Republican, is considering a race. Pollster Tom Jensen said "Democrats are very lucky Johnson is running again; he leads Rounds 49-40. While South Dakota is still not a slam-dunk for Democrats, Johnson is very formidable. By comparison, if he had decided to retire, Rounds would be up 52-34 in an open-seat contest against a generic Democrat. The distinction is obvious, a Johnson retirement would have been devastating to Democrats" Jensen added "In an open-seat contest, Rounds would have led former Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin by a slimmer 48-43. Finally, if Rep. Kristi Noem were to run against Johnson, she'd start out trailing 50-40." Herseth-Sandlin has ruled out running for elected office in 2014.

In addition to these retirements, several Republicans face competitive primaries. Senator Jeff Sessions (AL), Pat Roberts (KS) and Lindsay Graham (SC) all face primaries to their right. Only one Democrat, Max Baucus (MT), has drawn a strong primary opponent.

Sessions faces tea party challenger Rick Barber, who ran for Congress in 2010. While Sessions has carved out a prominent profile as a leading conservative on the Judiciary Committee, Parker maintains that Sessions "at one time probably had our state's best interests at heart, he has become nothing more than a rank-and-file Republican, entrenched in Washington culture and special interest."

Senator Pat Roberts faces GOP House frosh Tim Huelskamp. Huelskamp was one of dozens of tea party freshmen swept in during the 2010 elections. Kansas' other Senator, Jerry  Moran, is backing Roberts. Sarah Palin and the Tea Party Express have endorsed Huelskamp.

Senator Graham has been on the tea party 'traitor list' for quite a while. Talk show hosts, such as Mark Levin and Rush Limbaugh, have labeled Grahama as a 'weak, McCain RINO.' "Guber-Lindsay Graham voted for the bailout, he worked with Barbara Boxer on climate and he voted for both of Obama radical Supreme Court justices" said Levin. "Does this man sound like a Republican to you!? If we conservatives are going to take back our country, its not gonna be with sellouts like this! He's a Charlie Crist-type phony!" In fact, there is strong speculation that Graham may actually run as an independent. His fellow Senator, Jim DeMint, has endorsed Rep. Mick Mulvaney over Graham. In primary polling, Mulvaney leads Graham 52-43.

Open Seat Map




538.com 2014 Senate Ratings

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JulioMadrid
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« Reply #641 on: October 29, 2011, 06:40:04 pm »
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Love it !
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
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« Reply #642 on: October 29, 2011, 09:20:04 pm »
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Could Hank Williams make another Senate run? With Alexander gone, the field is clear.
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« Reply #643 on: October 29, 2011, 09:25:19 pm »
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Could Hank Williams make another Senate run? With Alexander gone, the field is clear.

Eh, after what he said on Fox, I'm keeping him out my TL! haha

Corker would have an early lead.

Tennessee GOP Primary polling:

Corker- 43%
Blackburn- 36%
Unsure- 21%
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RodPresident
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« Reply #644 on: October 30, 2011, 11:08:45 am »
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I think that Henry should skip 2014 and try for Coburn's seat in 2016. Fallin has it on bag. A great contest will be in Texas and I can see Cornyn being primaried from the right. Democrats have a good opportunity to take Senate seat for first time in 53 years. Statewide election is also another very important thing. I can see KBH trying to get governorship as Independent.
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10 years without Brizola
Miles
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« Reply #645 on: October 30, 2011, 01:26:36 pm »
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I don't think Henry would want to run for Senate. Despite a 52/36 favorable rating, he'd still narrowly trail Tom Cole and J.C Watts in an open-seat contest.

I think you'll like my plans for TX Governor!
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RodPresident
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« Reply #646 on: October 30, 2011, 02:07:47 pm »
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State contests will be a great thing in 2014. Great Lakes' states are going to have great disputes. Unfortunately, I think that SD is a lost cause. I'd love to see Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin trying governorship but Daugaard isn't a candidate to beat in 2014. Nebraska would be a great place to Democrats to try get a gubernatorial post, like Idaho
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« Reply #647 on: October 30, 2011, 02:12:34 pm »
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My next few posts will be about Governors races; I've kinda focused on the Senate lately, but I'll switch gears.
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Miles
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« Reply #648 on: November 11, 2011, 01:28:06 pm »
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Update this weekend.
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A.G. Snowstalker
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« Reply #649 on: November 11, 2011, 02:05:04 pm »
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I'd love to see Rick Perry go down to Julian Castro or Bill White. Smiley
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