US House Redistricting: North Carolina

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It continues into there (though the percentage declines), so the three counties belong together. I'd consider it stomachable if they'd just split them from Robeson rather than splitting Robeson itself, though.

(As to the rest of the map, I'd echo Al's sentiments of "what comes around goes around".  As long as no idiot tries to pretend this isn't a bad gerrymander, I cannot even manage fake outrage. But Indian issues tend to be close to my heart, and splitting Indian communities is quite rightly something that used to be "not done" in redistricting.)

The Democrats did this to themselves when they removed the governor's veto power because they were afraid of having a Republican governor veto their plan.

What year? The governor of NC didn't use to have veto power over anything until the 1990s. I thought it was a holdover from that.

Okay, it wasn't "removed" but instead "exempted", but the principle is the same:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[they don't love you like i love you]

This has dummymander potential considering how unpleasant many of the GOP incumbents are. McHenry for example can't be considered truly safe with Asheville in his seat, he's the type of guy who can't run in anything but the most absolutely safe districts. Coble is also notably kind of a jerk and has a far too diluted district, but he's older than dirt and my just retire anyway. Ellmers is an idiot who could end up being the next Jean Schmidt. I agree that it won't oust McIntyre. The GOP can also forget about primarying Jones like has been tried since the seat is now winnable for the right type of Democrat, but then again losing seats has never kept the GOP away from nominating idiots before.

[Smash255]

McHenry about 57-42 McCain.

The new 4th isn't even close to being another VRA district. I have it as 51% white, 29% black. Its just a Democratic vote sink that's roughly 70% Obama.

I projecting it at 69.6% Obama 29.6% McCain.

I'll take issue with the claim that isn't "even close to being another VRA district."  I reasonably expect Price to retire within the decade, and due to the inclusion of Duke, UNC, and, I believe, NCST, I don't think it is unreasonable to believe that a "person of color [other than peach]"  will win within the decade.

I have read lecture after lecture about how a 40% Black district is allegedly VRA compliant since it is probable that such a district would nominate a Black Democrat in the primary and that that Black Democrat would win the general. Why not 29% if it is probable to nominate a Black Democrat whom is likely to win the general?

The track record of such districts is heavily in the favor of whites. Don't kid yourself and pretend otherwise.

Given the fact that Ron Dellums won in such a Black minority, University dominated district it is not unreasonable to believe that such a coalition could form in the Triangle. The Black Obama beat the White Clinton badly in university dominated counties. That, too is part of the track record. Vilification of Whites is a staple of modern campus life. It creates quirky political outcomes.

If its going to happen, it certainly has a better chance of happening in that district than other portions of the south.  However, it has nothing to do vilification of whites are any of that right wing nonsense. 

You don't exactly buttress your claims about the lack of animosity towards Whites among the left by having as your tag the symbol of an anti-White racist organization that murdered police officers!

Imagine the outrage that would ensue had the clinched fist been the symbol of a White racist organization in the sixties that murdered police officers.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The symbol in my sig is to support the Unions in Wisconsin being attacked by Walker & Koch.....

[minionofmidas]

It continues into there (though the percentage declines), so the three counties belong together. I'd consider it stomachable if they'd just split them from Robeson rather than splitting Robeson itself, though.

The D's split the three counties last go-around.

Meh, must have blocked that out (even though at least they didn't split Robeson itself). Still wrong... then as now.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

This has dummymander potential considering how unpleasant many of the GOP incumbents are. McHenry for example can't be considered truly safe with Asheville in his seat, he's the type of guy who can't run in anything but the most absolutely safe districts. Coble is also notably kind of a jerk and has a far too diluted district, but he's older than dirt and my just retire anyway. Ellmers is an idiot who could end up being the next Jean Schmidt. I agree that it won't oust McIntyre. The GOP can also forget about primarying Jones like has been tried since the seat is now winnable for the right type of Democrat, but then again losing seats has never kept the GOP away from nominating idiots before.

I don't think any of the Republican incumbents will be in serious danger outside of a disastrous Republican year. I can see McIntyre holding on, but he'd probably be out in the next good Republican year.

[Torie]

This has dummymander potential considering how unpleasant many of the GOP incumbents are. McHenry for example can't be considered truly safe with Asheville in his seat, he's the type of guy who can't run in anything but the most absolutely safe districts. Coble is also notably kind of a jerk and has a far too diluted district, but he's older than dirt and my just retire anyway. Ellmers is an idiot who could end up being the next Jean Schmidt. I agree that it won't oust McIntyre. The GOP can also forget about primarying Jones like has been tried since the seat is now winnable for the right type of Democrat, but then again losing seats has never kept the GOP away from nominating idiots before.

That is a rather uncharitable tour de horizon of the NC Pubbie landscape (Coble has had a rep as a nice guy since rocks cooled for example), but the beauty of it is, if the weaklings are culled from the herd, that just makes room for someone better to run and cut down the Dem who did the culling.  It is kind of a win-win in my book. I like somewhat marginal GOP districts. It may have the potential to produce a better work product in the public square.

[BigSkyBob]

McHenry about 57-42 McCain.

The new 4th isn't even close to being another VRA district. I have it as 51% white, 29% black. Its just a Democratic vote sink that's roughly 70% Obama.

I projecting it at 69.6% Obama 29.6% McCain.

I'll take issue with the claim that isn't "even close to being another VRA district."  I reasonably expect Price to retire within the decade, and due to the inclusion of Duke, UNC, and, I believe, NCST, I don't think it is unreasonable to believe that a "person of color [other than peach]"  will win within the decade.

I have read lecture after lecture about how a 40% Black district is allegedly VRA compliant since it is probable that such a district would nominate a Black Democrat in the primary and that that Black Democrat would win the general. Why not 29% if it is probable to nominate a Black Democrat whom is likely to win the general?

The track record of such districts is heavily in the favor of whites. Don't kid yourself and pretend otherwise.

Given the fact that Ron Dellums won in such a Black minority, University dominated district it is not unreasonable to believe that such a coalition could form in the Triangle. The Black Obama beat the White Clinton badly in university dominated counties. That, too is part of the track record. Vilification of Whites is a staple of modern campus life. It creates quirky political outcomes.

If its going to happen, it certainly has a better chance of happening in that district than other portions of the south.  However, it has nothing to do vilification of whites are any of that right wing nonsense.

You don't exactly buttress your claims about the lack of animosity towards Whites among the left by having as your tag the symbol of an anti-White racist organization that murdered police officers!

Imagine the outrage that would ensue had the clinched fist been the symbol of a White racist organization in the sixties that murdered police officers.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The symbol in my sig is to support the Unions in Wisconsin being attacked by Walker & Koch.....

I have no doubt that the 60's symbol of anti-White racism, and murder of police officiers is being used in alleged support of the "Unions of Wisconsin."

This merely places upon "the Unions of Wisconsin" the obligation to dissassociate itself, and denounce, the use of a symbol of an organization that hated Whites, and murdered police officiers. You would think that would be a no-brainer for police unions.


P.S. Mention of "Koch[sic]" are merely the manifestation of the Alinski's rule that any dispute must be personalized. A target must be selected and villified.

The reality is that the only mention of "Koch" I have read in Wisconsin is that someone called Walker claiming to be one of the Koch brothers. Since Walker didn't recognize that the caller was  not one of the brothers, that strongly indicates Walker hadn't even met the Koch brothers before the budget repair bill.

[minionofmidas]

This has dummymander potential considering how unpleasant many of the GOP incumbents are. McHenry for example can't be considered truly safe with Asheville in his seat, he's the type of guy who can't run in anything but the most absolutely safe districts. Coble is also notably kind of a jerk and has a far too diluted district, but he's older than dirt and my just retire anyway. Ellmers is an idiot who could end up being the next Jean Schmidt. I agree that it won't oust McIntyre. The GOP can also forget about primarying Jones like has been tried since the seat is now winnable for the right type of Democrat, but then again losing seats has never kept the GOP away from nominating idiots before.

I don't think any of the Republican incumbents will be in serious danger outside of a disastrous Republican year. I can see McIntyre holding on, but he'd probably be out in the next good Republican year.

It's only a dummymander if, at any one point, Dems win two adjacent seats beyond the three allocated to them, which would presumably mean two of the four southeastern seats (Kissell, McIntyre, Jones, Ellmers). If they'd created another safe Dem seat down there, they could have made (kept in Jones' case) the others entirely safe.

[Lunar]

I think the Illinois map is a better work of gerrymandering art than NC. 

North Carolina just screws over the Democrats instead of forcing chaos and scrambling for districts

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I've been using DRA to figure out what percentages of the old districts correspond to the new districts, and here's what I've done so far. This, of course, isn't exact, since there are quite a few split precincts in places Wake County, but it's pretty close:

New NC-02

NC-02 - 39%
NC-04 - 32%
NC-07 - 14%
NC-08 - 10%
NC-03 - 4%
NC-01 - 0.4%

New NC-07

NC-07 - 67%
NC-03 - 33%

New NC-08

NC-08 - 62%
NC-06 - 18%
NC-07 - 13%
NC-09 - 6%
NC-12 - 1%

New NC-11

NC-11 - 72%
NC-10 - 28%

New NC-13

NC-13 - 42%
NC-05 - 22%
NC-04 - 20%
NC-06 - 11%
NC-02 - 5%

One observation about NC-02: a Republican with a base in southern Wake County could mount a pretty serious challenge to Ellmers.

[Lunar]

One observation about NC-02: a Republican with a base in southern Wake County could mount a pretty serious challenge to Ellmers.

I'm not sure if the NC legislature would care, as it would probably be one of their own would would have such a codified electoral base.  

She wasn't ever really expected to win her seat and I don't think has much of a past in the political system, so she's not exactly buddy buddy with the powers that be.

Interesting though, anytime you're running with less than 40% of your previous district and you're not a local powerbroker, you've possibly got something less than smooth sailing in front of ya

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

They most likely want and hope she falls to such a primary challenger.

[Devils30]

I think NC-08,13 will be tough for any Dem but McIntyre will survive more easily than anyone expects in NC-07. That district is 3% more R now but he won 54% in a very Republican year. His numbers in the prior years were between 65-75%! In a neutral political environment it's tough to see him as any less than a 4:1 favorite. Even if you take 3% off his 2010 margin he still wins re-election and that possibly could be as bad as it can get for him.

[Padfoot]

Although this map has a clear Republican bent to it and the current Democratic congressmen are probably SOL I feel like this map has the potential to give the GOP some heartburn down the road.  If the overall Democratic trend in the state holds up and the Democrats continue to pursue North Carolina at the presidential level I think some of those districts that are now 55% McCain might be more like 50-50 districts in 2016.

[Mr.Phips]

Although this map has a clear Republican bent to it and the current Democratic congressmen are probably SOL I feel like this map has the potential to give the GOP some heartburn down the road.  If the overall Democratic trend in the state holds up and the Democrats continue to pursue North Carolina at the presidential level I think some of those districts that are now 55% McCain might be more like 50-50 districts in 2016.

Those are pretty much my thoughts too.  Districts like NC-02, NC-06 and NC-09 are a ticking time bomb for Republicans. 

[Miles]

Although this map has a clear Republican bent to it and the current Democratic congressmen are probably SOL I feel like this map has the potential to give the GOP some heartburn down the road.  If the overall Democratic trend in the state holds up and the Democrats continue to pursue North Carolina at the presidential level I think some of those districts that are now 55% McCain might be more like 50-50 districts in 2016.

Those are pretty much my thoughts too.  Districts like NC-02, NC-06 and NC-09 are a ticking time bomb for Republicans. 

True, but Myrick will have NC-09 for as long as she wants.

I agree that NC-02, NC-06 would be competitive down the road.

NC-03 could easily change hands if Jones retires in a few cycles. Its ancestrally Democratic and still votes Democrat on the state level.

[BigSkyBob]

Although this map has a clear Republican bent to it and the current Democratic congressmen are probably SOL I feel like this map has the potential to give the GOP some heartburn down the road.  If the overall Democratic trend in the state holds up and the Democrats continue to pursue North Carolina at the presidential level I think some of those districts that are now 55% McCain might be more like 50-50 districts in 2016.

And, if the Republican trend reasserts itself, and at the Presidential level the Republicans regain their historic advantage, these districts could be 59-41 Republican by 2016.

[Miles]

And, if the Republican trend reasserts itself, and at the Presidential level the Republicans regain their historic advantage, these districts could be 59-41 Republican by 2016.

Republican trend lol

[BigSkyBob]

And, if the Republican trend reasserts itself, and at the Presidential level the Republicans regain their historic advantage, these districts could be 59-41 Republican by 2016.

Republican trend lol

Feel free to compare the number of GOP state legislators in North Carolina compare to forty years ago. The long term trend has been clear enough. Whether there has been an acceleration of that trend towards the GOP in 2010, a leveling off of that trend, a reversal of that trend, or a blip in the last several years is a matter of speculation.

[Torie]

I think NC-08,13 will be tough for any Dem but McIntyre will survive more easily than anyone expects in NC-07. That district is 3% more R now but he won 54% in a very Republican year. His numbers in the prior years were between 65-75%! In a neutral political environment it's tough to see him as any less than a 4:1 favorite. Even if you take 3% off his 2010 margin he still wins re-election and that possibly could be as bad as it can get for him.

I wonder why McIntyre is such an effective politician. I have never seen him on the tube, so I am curious what his qualities are that make him successful.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

And, if the Republican trend reasserts itself, and at the Presidential level the Republicans regain their historic advantage, these districts could be 59-41 Republican by 2016.

Republican trend lol

Feel free to compare the number of GOP state legislators in North Carolina compare to forty years ago. The long term trend has been clear enough. Whether there has been an acceleration of that trend towards the GOP in 2010, a leveling off of that trend, a reversal of that trend, or a blip in the last several years is a matter of speculation.

Yes, we all know that the south, including North Carolina, has turned from a Democratic stronghold to a Republican leaning one since the 1960's. The parties have changed much since then, as has the state itself, so the comparison proves little. Looking at the more relevent trend over the past decade, you'll notice that Republican performance generally peaked around 2000 (with the obvious exception of 2010). Kerry slightly outperformed Gore in North Carolina, and Obama carried the state. The General Assembly went from a 60-60 tie in 2003 to a 68-52 Democratic majority in 2009. Democrats gained two seats in the Congressional delegation between 2004 and 2008. These signs show that the current trend in North Carolina is toward the Democrats- it remains to be seen whether 2010 reversed that trend or was a one-off thing brought on by a Republican wave.

[Miles]

And, if the Republican trend reasserts itself, and at the Presidential level the Republicans regain their historic advantage, these districts could be 59-41 Republican by 2016.

Republican trend lol

Feel free to compare the number of GOP state legislators in North Carolina compare to forty years ago. The long term trend has been clear enough. Whether there has been an acceleration of that trend towards the GOP in 2010, a leveling off of that trend, a reversal of that trend, or a blip in the last several years is a matter of speculation.

Both chambers of the legislature are Republican because turnout last year among Democrats was horrendous.

[BigSkyBob]

And, if the Republican trend reasserts itself, and at the Presidential level the Republicans regain their historic advantage, these districts could be 59-41 Republican by 2016.

Republican trend lol

Feel free to compare the number of GOP state legislators in North Carolina compare to forty years ago. The long term trend has been clear enough. Whether there has been an acceleration of that trend towards the GOP in 2010, a leveling off of that trend, a reversal of that trend, or a blip in the last several years is a matter of speculation.

Both chambers of the legislature are Republican because turnout last year among Democrats was horrendous.

Then again, previous to 2010 both chambers were Democratic due to gerrymandering, and depressed GOP turnout in 2006, and 2008.

[Miles]

Then again, previous to 2010 both chambers were Democratic due to gerrymandering, and depressed GOP turnout in 2006, and 2008.

To be perfectly honest with you, I'm trying to remain cordial, but it does frustrate me when you seem to think your own understanding of NC politics is more informed or of greater value than that of an actual resident.

Republicans are going to get the Dems down to, possibly as low as 30% of both state houses after the redistricting session. Democrats are going to lose even more seats. You'll probably use that to justify NC's "Republican trend" too.

Democratic turnout in 2010 was worse than Republicans in 2006 or 2008. I can personally attest to that....

...I didn't even bother to vote last year, which I feel really guilty about now. Granted, my local districts are pretty safely Republican by NC standards, there were a lot of apathetic/angry Dems like me last year.

[BigSkyBob]

Then again, previous to 2010 both chambers were Democratic due to gerrymandering, and depressed GOP turnout in 2006, and 2008.

To be perfectly honest with you, I'm trying to remain cordial, but it does frustrate me when you seem to think your own understanding of NC politics is more informed or of greater value than that of an actual resident.

To be entirely honest with you, I find your attempts to argue from the authority of your own address to be a particular egregious fallacy.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

If I did that, which I haven't, I would merely be doing what you did concerning Demorcats in the last decade. They gerrymandered the legislative and Congressional districts, and reaped the benefits. That wasn't a sign of a Democratic trend.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Again, it doesn't matter which was worse, Republican turnout 2006 and 2008, or Demcoratic turnout in 2010. What does matter is that you equated depressed Republican turnout in 2006 and 2008 with a Democratic trend in the state, while denying that increased Republican turnout and depressed Democratic turnout in 2010 was not indicative of an underlying partsian trend. That's not a consistent position.