US House Redistricting: North Carolina

[krazen1211]

Nonpartisan redistricting can be enacted after the GOP uses gerrymandering for a century as punishment.

[Sol]

Why would the Republicans back this initiative. The governor can't control the redistricting and it will be really difficult for the democrats to retake the state senate and the state house!

The Democrats used to gerrymander a great deal themselves, and that's left a bad taste in the NC GOP's mouth.

[Miles]

Why would the Republicans back this initiative. The governor can't control the redistricting and it will be really difficult for the democrats to retake the state senate and the state house!

The Democrats used to gerrymander a great deal themselves, and that's left a bad taste in the NC GOP's mouth.

To say the least.

[Bacon King]

Why would the Republicans back this initiative? The governor can't control redistricting and it will be really difficult for the democrats to retake the state senate and the state house!

Politicians are acutely aware of how volatile their profession is; I'm sure the NC Republicans remembers very well that the 2010 election turned a 30D-20R Senate split and 68D-52R House split into divisions of 31R-19D and 68R-52D, respectively, and that this unexpected sweep allowed the GOP to make their own gerrymander for the current decade. They know from experience that they can't predict how well a gerrymander can hold for an entire decade, and all but the most newly elected Republicans remember what it was like to be stuck in a minority party.

In the North Carolina situation, passing a bill for nonpartisan redistricting is essentially an agreement to a ceasefire. Both parties have gratuitously abused reapportionment powers when they've had the opportunity, and so now have both faced the other side of it, and now from that experience agree to play "fair."

Of course, "nonpartisan" redistricting is never truly impartial, but it creates a bright line limiting where and how reapportionment battles are to be fought, and even in cases of bias would prevent maps from being excessively hackish.

[Sol]

The NC GOP may also feel that 10 years in a permanent minority is good enough punishment for the Democrats.

[Miles]

The NC GOP may also feel that 10 years in a permanent minority is good enough punishment for the Democrats.

[Mr.Phips]

House Bill 606, a bipartisan bill that creates an independent redistricting process, seems to be gaining steam.

I emailed my Representative, Charles Jeter, a conservative Republican who represents a swingy district, and I was pleasantly surprised to find out that he supports it.

Democrats should have passed this in 2010.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

House Bill 606, a bipartisan bill that creates an independent redistricting process, seems to be gaining steam.

OH GOD, YES!!!


Makes disturbingly, and seemingly sensually motivated, facial expression

[Miles]

Actually, the House passed a similar bill in 2011, but I stalled in the Senate.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Be quicker with that information next time, before I go and get all...and stuff!


Is there any better chance of it getting through the Senate this time?


Did you email your State Senator on the matter, too?

[Miles]

Be quicker with that information next time, before I go and get all...and stuff!


Is there any better chance of it getting through the Senate this time?


Did you email your State Senator on the matter, too?

It sounds like it would still face an uphill battle in the Senate.

My Senator, Rucho, as I've vented about this much before, drew the Congressional and Senate maps, so I'm not sure he'd be very willing to support this. I'll probably email him too, but I'll try not to take too many jabs at him in my letter XD

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Yea, that would probably not be that helpfull.


I will look into contacting mine, but this computer is unstable and I am leary of going to unknown sites for the time being, including a legislator's website.

[muon2]

House Bill 606, a bipartisan bill that creates an independent redistricting process, seems to be gaining steam.

I emailed my Representative, Charles Jeter, a conservative Republican who represents a swingy district, and I was pleasantly surprised to find out that he supports it.

Democrats should have passed this in 2010.

Just before redistricting both parties hold out hope that they will control the maps, so they resist reform. Ohio had competing reform proposals in the House and Senate in 2010, but neither side wanted to budge, and they were willing to gamble all or nothing at the Nov polls.

[Mr.Phips]

House Bill 606, a bipartisan bill that creates an independent redistricting process, seems to be gaining steam.

I emailed my Representative, Charles Jeter, a conservative Republican who represents a swingy district, and I was pleasantly surprised to find out that he supports it.

Democrats should have passed this in 2010.

Just before redistricting both parties hold out hope that they will control the maps, so they resist reform. Ohio had competing reform proposals in the House and Senate in 2010, but neither side wanted to budge, and they were willing to gamble all or nothing at the Nov polls.

All Democrats needed to do in 2010 was look at not just the state generic legislative ballot, but polls in individual districts.  Democratic incumbents were trailing in must win districts by double digits as early as June of 2010. 

[Miles]

Here's how the State Senate would have voted in 2008 for Senate and Governor. Under the old lines, Perdue carried 27 districts and Hagan had 26. With the current lines, they were each reduced to 24.

Governor:



Senate:



Majority Leader Phil Berger's district actually flipped to Hagan; the Republicans packed Democrats into a single safe district in Guilford County, so Berger had to take a hit.

[Miles]

2010 Seante



Kerry 2004, Marshall 2010 and Dalton 2012 all got about 43% of the vote, so I think thats more or less the floor.

Burr won 34 district in each map. Only 3 voted for Burr but elected Democrats to the Senate (districts 1, 7 and 25).

[Mr.Phips]

Here's how the State Senate would have voted in 2008 for Senate and Governor. Under the old lines, Perdue carried 27 districts and Hagan had 26. With the current lines, they were each reduced to 24.

Governor:



Senate:



Majority Leader Phil Berger's district actually flipped to Hagan; the Republicans packed Democrats into a single safe district in Guilford County, so Berger had to take a hit.

The fact that Hagan won just 26 districts when she was winning by nine points statewide shows that the old map wasn't too good for dems either.

[Miles]

There were a few seats that should have never flipped in 2010. The Democraic candidates in the Wilson/Nash and Bladen/Cumberland districts, for example, would have only needed to run a few points ahead of Marshall.

[Mr.Phips]

There were a few seats that should have never flipped in 2010. The Democraic candidates in the Wilson/Nash and Bladen/Cumberland districts, for example, would have only needed to run a few points ahead of Marshall.

This was pretty much the case all over the country in 2010. 

The Wilson/Nash seat(SD-11) came within 300 votes of voting for Marshall, yet the Dem lost by six points. 

[Miles]

Here's a good article on the differences between the House and Senate.

The independent redistricting bill would likely pass the House, but get stalled in the Senate.

This guy reminds me of krazen:

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As usual my Senator is being his typical partisan jackass self:

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'Pisses me off.

[Mr.Phips]

Here's a good article on the differences between the House and Senate.

The independent redistricting bill would likely pass the House, but get stalled in the Senate.

This guy reminds me of krazen:

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As usual my Senator is being his typical partisan jackass self:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

'Pisses me off.

Democrats in Wake and Guilford county should tell Rucho to but out of local/municipal issues where he doesnt belong.  How would he like it if Obama came in and drew the state legislature lines?  I bet he'd be having a fit. 

[Miles]

I've been working on NC Senate redistricting, just for fun, lately. I'll have the full map up later, but I thought what I did around the Triad was particularly neat.

If I were drawing the Senate, one of my top goals would be get rid of Majority Leader Phil Berger. For reference, here is what his district looks like; his base in Rockingham County and suburban Greensboro and was 56% McCain.

This is what I came up with around that area; Democrats should win 5 of these 7 districts.



Berger's current district is dismantled. The majority of Rockingham County, including his house, is now in SD24; Berger's holdings in Guilford County are cracked almost evenly between districts 26 and 27. For the NC Assembly, legislators must live in their districts. Both of the districts that include Rockingham County are Democratic-leaning.

SD24- Berger lives here, but Obama would have won this district 52/47 in 2008 and the D average is 53%. It hooks into Alamance County because thats where Tony Foriest lives; this would be a good comeback opportunity for him. Overall, I think Berger would be too conservative to win here and Foriest would win.

SD26- Berger's other option would be to buy/rent a house in this district. But the catch here is that its even more Democratic than SD24; 56.5% Obama and 55.1% D average.

SD23- Chapel Hill drowns out the very Republican parts of Alamance, making this district 60% Obama. Senator Ellie Kinnaird, or any other D, would be safe.

SD28- Urban Greensboro and High Point. 46% black VAP, which is identical to the version from the 2003 map. 72.5% Obama.

SD27- Whats left of Guilford County (heavily R areas) is paired, via touch-point, to Stokes County. Berger could conceivably run here, but he'd have to leave behind all of Rockingham County and he;s only represented a relatively  small fragment of this district before.

SD31/32- Two SDs, one D and one R, fit nicely within Forsyth and Yadkin Counties.

[Miles]

Oh look, isn't this nice. Another lawsuit challenging CDs 1 and 12.

[Sol]

Oh look, isn't this nice. Another lawsuit challenging CDs 1 and 12.

Wonderful News!

[muon2]

Oh look, isn't this nice. Another lawsuit challenging CDs 1 and 12.

The mapmakers relied on section 5 for their districts. Section 5 was overturned as far as applicability to NC after the maps were drawn and survived a challenge. Is the map now subject to a section 2 challenge having tried to meet the law as it existed at the time?