US House Redistricting: Colorado

[jimrtex]

CO-04 is contiguous across Cameron Pass between Larimer and Jackson Counties. This should not be controversial. Cameron Pass is in fact easier and more often open in winter than the very difficult Berthoud Pass between Clear Creek and Grand Counties that is the only route connecting the two parts of CO-02 on the current map.

Boulder to Vail 108 miles, 2H 2M via Vail Pass.

Fort Collins to Steamboat, 157 miles 3H 31M (73% longer) over both Cameron and Rabbit Ears passes.

Even if you insist that the route stay within CD-2 (via Nederland up Boulder Canyon and the Peak-to-Peak Highway) it is only 114 miles and 2H 32M.

I don't see what Berthoud Pass has to do with anything.

And your circuitous connection from Springfield to Montrose is 750 miles and 13-1/2 hours.  This is double the distance and time of a direct route instead over Monarch Pass and almost the entire route on US 50.

Even if you were only talking about Fort Collins to Grand Junction, you would drive through Denver and save 2 hours rather than using Cameron Pass. 

[jimrtex]

Vail Pass is not in CO-02 at the moment. You would have to go through CO-06 to get from Boulder to Vail through Vail Pass.

Nonsense.  I explained how to avoid going through CO-06 to get from Boulder to Vail.  Vail Pass is too in CD 2.  And it is way shorter and quicker than Fort Collins to Steamboat over two three mountain passes.  You do realize that Cameron Pass does not cross the Continental Divide don't you, and then you have to go over both Muddy and Rabbit Ears passes.

And please explain what Berthoud Pass has to do with anything.  If Jared Polis wanted to go from Boulder to Granby, wouldn't he take the train?  The bus from Boulder stops at Union Station.

And if I wanted to drive from Fort Collins to Grand Junction, I'd go through Denver (or at least to I-76).

[Applezz]

Will the new seat in Colorado benefit Republicans or Democrats?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Colorado isn't gaining a seat.

[5280]

CO-04 is contiguous across Cameron Pass between Larimer and Jackson Counties. This should not be controversial. Cameron Pass is in fact easier and more often open in winter than the very difficult Berthoud Pass between Clear Creek and Grand Counties that is the only route connecting the two parts of CO-02 on the current map.

Boulder to Vail 108 miles, 2H 2M via Vail Pass.

Fort Collins to Steamboat, 157 miles 3H 31M (73% longer) over both Cameron and Rabbit Ears passes.

Even if you insist that the route stay within CD-2 (via Nederland up Boulder Canyon and the Peak-to-Peak Highway) it is only 114 miles and 2H 32M.

I don't see what Berthoud Pass has to do with anything.

And your circuitous connection from Springfield to Montrose is 750 miles and 13-1/2 hours.  This is double the distance and time of a direct route instead over Monarch Pass and almost the entire route on US 50.

Even if you were only talking about Fort Collins to Grand Junction, you would drive through Denver and save 2 hours rather than using Cameron Pass.  

Why not include all of Jefferson county with CD-6? Will that make any difference? What if you added Pueblo with CD-5 or CD-4?

[Verily]

CO-03 needs extra population somewhere; that's why it expands into Jefferson County. If the actual Census numbers allow it to stay out of Jefferson, that would be great.

[5280]

Here's my map

[Verily]

Districts need to be of equal populations. Your CO-05 and CO-06 are way oversized while CO-03 is way undersized.

[California8429]

And with it all the districts. It's going to be pretty much just Jefferson County, which completly levels the playing field. Apparently Araphaoe is going into CD-1 (dem anyway) and I'd guess Adams will go into Cory Gardner's 4th district.

This will redraw the district to be a third of each party, as it was originally drawn to be. I'm so excited that we can have an actual competitive election, granted we find a good candidate. And the GOP runnerup to Frazier, Lang Sias is not going to stand a chance against perlmutter, even in a fair district.

[Sbane]

Might this make CD-6 a bit more competitive? Though I guess it doesn't matter? I should redistrict Colorado soon...

[timothyinMD]

And with it all the districts. It's going to be pretty much just Jefferson County, which completly levels the playing field. Apparently Araphaoe is going into CD-1 (dem anyway) and I'd guess Adams will go into Cory Gardner's 4th district.

This will redraw the district to be a third of each party, as it was originally drawn to be. I'm so excited that we can have an actual competitive election, granted we find a good candidate. And the GOP runnerup to Frazier, Lang Sias is not going to stand a chance against perlmutter, even in a fair district.

And what is your source on this?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Why in the world would the Dems in the legislature agree to this?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

What will happen to the second, third and sixth as a result of these changes?

[Brittain33]

And with it all the districts. It's going to be pretty much just Jefferson County, which completly levels the playing field. Apparently Araphaoe is going into CD-1 (dem anyway) and I'd guess Adams will go into Cory Gardner's 4th district.

I'm curious what your source is--it's too early for any kind of plan--and how the numbers add up. Jefferson County is 200,000 short of a district, where are the rest coming from? Similarly, Denver + Arapahoe are well over a million people. Putting Adams County into the 4th district is more like putting the 4th district into Adams County; it would have half the district's population.

[Sbane]

Adams County + Larimer= lean Democratic.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Source?  Also, the Colorado Democratic party doesn't strike me as being the sort of weak, incompetent state party that would agree to this (unlike the South Carolina or Mississippi Democratic parties).

[DrScholl]

The Democrats have no reason to agree with that, since they have 2 out 3 of the trifecta. The map will be a compromise.

[Sbane]

The Republicans should focus on securing CO-3 and 4 before dreaming about the 7th.

[krazen1211]

My first attempt; minimal changes.

I basically pulled CD-4 out of Boulder County, gave CD-7 what I thought were some Dem territories, and left CD-3 the same.

[Sbane]

Yes, I think you pretty much nailed it. At least in the Denver area.

[krazen1211]

Yes, I think you pretty much nailed it. At least in the Denver area.

Part of the problem I had with this is that nobody wants to be attached to the Denver district and be ~100k forgotten residents. Once you figure out who the unlucky souls are the rest of the map is fairly obvious.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The Republicans should focus on securing CO-3 and 4 before dreaming about the 7th.

The fourth is secure, just not idiot proof. And I think drawing an R+10 or greater (minimum to be idiot proof) is not only impossible, but a waste.


I would be more worried about the third and sixth then the third and fourth.

[muon2]

It looks like some of the map will be predicated on how to enhance minority opportunities while keeping Denver intact.

My look at the 2010 data on Dave's App leads to believe that a compact district with over 50% Hispanic VAP is not possible at the precinct level. I get only to within about 140K of the right size before running out of precincts. I suspect that one can do somewhat better at the block level, but it seems unlikely that even that would be enough to get to a full Hispanic-majority district.

That should clear the way for Denver to remain intact as the core of CO-1.

[California8429]

And with it all the districts. It's going to be pretty much just Jefferson County, which completly levels the playing field. Apparently Araphaoe is going into CD-1 (dem anyway) and I'd guess Adams will go into Cory Gardner's 4th district.

This will redraw the district to be a third of each party, as it was originally drawn to be. I'm so excited that we can have an actual competitive election, granted we find a good candidate. And the GOP runnerup to Frazier, Lang Sias is not going to stand a chance against perlmutter, even in a fair district.

And what is your source on this?

The committee in charge of redistricting that said it at the jefferson county hearing

[California8429]

Yes, I think you pretty much nailed it. At least in the Denver area.

Part of the problem I had with this is that nobody wants to be attached to the Denver district and be ~100k forgotten residents. Once you figure out who the unlucky souls are the rest of the map is fairly obvious.

That's why giving North West Aurora to them is the best choice. They are resonably dem