US House Redistricting: Colorado

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Is it even possible to create a majority Hispanic Denver district? I went into Weld county and still got stuck in the 40s.

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Might this make CD-6 a bit more competitive? Though I guess it doesn't matter? I should redistrict Colorado soon...

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Adams County + Larimer= lean Democratic.

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The Republicans should focus on securing CO-3 and 4 before dreaming about the 7th.

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Yes, I think you pretty much nailed it. At least in the Denver area.

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Yes, I think you pretty much nailed it. At least in the Denver area.

Part of the problem I had with this is that nobody wants to be attached to the Denver district and be ~100k forgotten residents. Once you figure out who the unlucky souls are the rest of the map is fairly obvious.

That's why giving North West Aurora to them is the best choice. They are resonably dem

Yeah best choice for the pubbies for sure. Or just join it with certain areas of Adams County. Of course the Dems are going to want to expand south.

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Actually I think it will be quite similar to the current map. Marginally 4-3 Republican.

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I think that makes the 7th even more Republican than what the Democrats proposed, which was more Republican than the current district.

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I find it somewhat amusing that y'all are spending at least 20 times the amount of time a judge/court is going to spend drawing a map.  Seriously.  They look for the easiest solution that's not going to get struck down and move on (which generally revolves around making the most minor changes possible to the old map).  Unless they're partisans.

Maybe, but one never knows with a state judge. But in this case, I suspect you're right, and thus I think the first map I suggested is about right, which throws the Hispanics a bone while respecting jurisdictional lines (and thus a good reason not to give them more where such is not the case), but other than that, tries to minimize changes. Denver needs to expand out anyway to pick up population, so why not get rid of its existing extension into the Southern burbs (which did not make sense anyway), and then expand it out north to Hispanic areas which are just hanging there like rip fruit to pick up.

Aren't the southern and eastern areas of Denver similar to the areas south of it, if we disregard partisanship? If you want to make a Hispanic influence district, add in extreme eastern Jefferson County into the mix as well.

Your map seems to be much more favorable to Republicans while at the same time not picking up Hispanic areas in Jefferson County. I don't see why a "fair" judge would do that. Though that would depend on the definition of fair, wouldn't it?

30% VAP Hispanic. I can only imagine what the CVAP numbers are (and yes in Denver most of them are immigrants as opposed to Southern and Western Colorado).

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Splitting Aurora is a valid concern, I guess, but to me going east on Colfax Avenue makes a lot of sense. Wasn't the current map drawn by the courts? I doubt they would change things much, so they might just continue south. Of course more territory outside Denver is needed this time around than last time, so we shall see. Without an erose map going into Weld County, or something even worse, you cannot draw a true Hispanic influence district. So this map just seems neither here nor there.

And I don't know how much stock the courts keep with this not splitting counties non sense. Sure, it shouldn't be done in a partisan way, but extending the Denver district along Colfax Avenue, which seems to the dividing line between Arapahoe and Adams, makes perfect sense. That area has much more in common with the neighborhoods north of there in the appendage of the city, as well as the areas just south of it in Aurora, than it does with the cities to the north of the city of Denver proper.

Edit: Not to mention the last court drawn map didn't have any qualms about splitting counties.

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Here's how you draw a Hispanic influence district in Denver and it's certainly not erose. The only city I split in Adams county seems to be Thornton. I just picked the most Hispanic areas in Jefferson county which is basically a continuation of Denver's Hispanic community anyway. I don't see how you leave them out if trying to draw a Hispanic influence district. 41.4% VAP. Not bad actually.

Of course there is one certain reason you won't like this map, but you can't have your cake and eat it too. The Hispanic areas of Denver have to be split from the white areas to draw a proper Hispanic influence map. It just has to be done. Or else fuggedaboutit!

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I mean come one, your 7th is 23% VAP Hispanic and your 1st is 30% VAP. How much more of an influence district is that?

BTW, I doubt the map I drew will be drawn. I think the map will remain similar to what it is now.

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What do you guys think about this? The 7th picks up the rest of Denver, Aurora and most of southern Arapahoe County. A few of those cities southeast of Aurora, as well as eastern Arapahoe County is put in the 6th. The 6th picks up most of Jefferson County except for Arvada and Westminster. The 4th picks up Arvada, Westminster, Bloomfield and the rest of Adams County. Then I picked up all of Weld County. I still had about 80,000 people left to put in, so I picked up Louisville and Lafayette in Boulder County but stayed clear of Boulder. Unfortunately I had to split Longmont. That district is 53.7-46.3 Republican. The 6th is 59.8-40.2 Republican. The 7th is 58.3-41.7 Democrat. I don't think it's an unreasonable map, if Hispanics can convince the judge they need an influence district.

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Ok, I changed things around a bit so I didn't have a district from the northeast corner to the northwest corner of Colorado. I added in rural areas to the 4th instead of suburban Boulder County. It's 57.8-42.2 Republican now. So we have basically a 4-3 Republican map....just like now. Though 53% Republican should be enough for a Republican to win, it would be just a lean Republican instead of a solid Republican district. Consequently, the Democratic 2nd district goes from 54.5% Dem to about 56% Dem.

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Here you go. Only the 3rd hasn't been drawn yet. And it will be 55.3-44.7 Republican.

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I kinda like this map.... it creates 2 swing districts in the Denver area. One is a pure tossup and one is a Democratic leaning. And there is a Republican leaning swing district in the 3rd. The 5th and 4th are safe Republican and the 1st and 2nd are safe Dem.

Does anyone know if all of Highlands Ranch is in the 6th? It looks like at least part of it is.

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That's a really competitive map! (sarcasm) Welcome to Colofornia, looks like I'm moving out of Denver (LA east) in a couple of years. Enough of this crap the state has become.

Better than Texas!

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Does that Dem map make CO-02 kind of marginal?  And CO-07 looks like it moves a couple of points in the Pubbie direction. But yes, CO-06 moves 9 points in the Dem direction. The ying and the yang.

Still, the Dems were kind of gutsy perhaps?  Things might go quite wrong with their little plans, no?

You don't think the judge chose this plan precisely because it makes so many districts swingable? Or do you think the judge is in the pockets of the Dems? That's kind of ridiculous considering your hopes and dreams about what happens in Arizona, with a Republican judge stepping in as the knight in shining armor to make everything alright.

BTW, CO-2 becomes something like 60-61% Obama, so it's not really marginal unless the congressman is an idiot that deserves to be thrown out. It has already been worked out and posted earlier in the thread. So I wouldn't say that is a marginal district. CO-7 most certainly is, and CO-3 stays about the same. Those two lean the opposite way of course, but still competitive. CO-6 is a dead even swing district, though should be fine with Coffman? I wouldn't have drawn this map, but I'm actually fine with it until I see what the Republican response was. Didn't the judge have to choose between maps?

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Yes, Longmont was put in the 4th because the representative from there wants to run in the 4th. The most egregious part about the map is the choice of what was put in the Denver district. Other than that it creates a nice and competitive map that mostly sticks to communities of interests. I wonder what the hispanic % is in that 7th district and Aurora isn't split in the 6th.

Edit: CO-6 is 54% Obama, so probably right about the state average or a little more Republican. I think on DKE they also posted the "average" numbers and there it was almost as Republican as the 3rd. Definitely the sort of district that would like Obama more than generic Dem.

Here we go:

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http://www.dailykos.com/comments/1035111/43907765#c339