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Author Topic: U.S. House Redistricting: New Jersey  (Read 17109 times)
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brittain33
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« on: November 10, 2010, 08:58:49 am »
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This article is primarily about legislative redistricting, but the same issues apply to federal.

I mentioned earlier that the districts are drawn by a panel composed of equal numbers of Republicans and Democrats, with one appointed tiebreaker as needed. The article states that the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court appoints the tiebreaker. Last time, he sided with the Dems for a Dem-friendly map for the legislature, while both sides colluded on an incumbent protection map for Congress. Since there is zero chance of collusion for a legislative map, the machinations for the legislature could be interesting. I'm not sure what an incumbent protection map will look like when at least one Republican is likely to lose his seat with reapportionment.

http://www.examiner.com/essex-county-conservative-in-newark/redistricting-fight-nj-begins
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brittain33
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« Reply #1 on: December 22, 2010, 06:57:19 pm »
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So I tried to eliminate Runyan by unlocking the extra Democratic votes in NJ-1 and unused Dem areas in NJ-2 and creating a Delaware river district for Holt to run in. No dice. If you do that, you actually can create two good Democratic districts on either side of the Camden-Pennsauken border, rotate LoBiondo north to take half of Ocean County, and make a solid NJ-4 on Toms River and all of Smith's coastal territory, but you have to put too much of Monmouth County currently in NJ-12 into NJ-6 for Pallone's liking. And then you have all of Pallone's and Holt's Democratic territory in Middlesex County leftover with no takers unless you now eliminate Lance. The end result is to have to create a new Dem-leaning district in Central Jersey to fill the gap left by sucking Holt's district south and Pallone's to the shore. The final result would be favorable for Democrats, but unfavorable to 3 incumbents and probably stretches NJ-5 all the way to outer Trenton. I don't see how that happens.

I suspect despite all of the talk about last hired, first fired, the committee is going to have to do a fair fight district in the middle/north of the state.
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« Reply #2 on: December 23, 2010, 05:20:08 pm »
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I suspect despite all of the talk about last hired, first fired, the committee is going to have to do a fair fight district in the middle/north of the state.

Not true at all. Here's my map that eliminates Runyan and keeps all other incumbents safe. The numbers mostly correspond to current incumbents. NJ-04 becomes NJ-03, however, and NJ-13 becomes NJ-04.

NJ-10 is 54% black; NJ-04 is 54% Hispanic.

Runyan lives in NJ-12, but that seat is very safe for Rush Holt, around D+10.

North Jersey:



South Jersey:


« Last Edit: December 23, 2010, 05:28:36 pm by Verily »Logged
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« Reply #3 on: December 23, 2010, 07:37:34 pm »
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That is similar to my NJ-12, but I balked at drawing Lance such a wide-ranging district. I don't see them pairing the older Republican Union County suburbs of NJ-7 with Monmouth with such a distant link, and it's the Monmouth Republican areas that have to go somewhere. I suspect they'd go into Pallone's district (he represented more of Monmouth prior to 1992) first.

FWIW, I gave the rest of Gloucester and Salem County to NJ-1 because they are Democratic enough and then drew NJ-12 closer into Camden by pulling in Haddon Heights, Pennsauken, and Haddonfield.
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brittain33
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« Reply #4 on: December 23, 2010, 07:38:31 pm »
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Does anyone know how Hamilton Twp. votes for President and Senator these days?
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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #5 on: December 23, 2010, 08:03:09 pm »
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Does anyone know how Hamilton Twp. votes for President and Senator these days?

The one in Mercer County? Very swingy.

2009 Governor:
Christie (R): 14,234
Corzine (D): 13,490

2008 President:
Obama (D): 23,658
McCain (R): 19,422

2008 Senate:
Lautenberg (D): 20,594
Zimmer (R): 18,895

2006 Senate:
Menendez (D): 12,639
Kean (R): 12,527

2005 Governor:
Forrester (R): 14,235
Corzine (D): 13,990

2004 President:
Kerry (D): 20,874
Bush (R): 20,637

Source: http://www.state.nj.us/state/elections/results_2010_doe.html
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« Reply #6 on: December 23, 2010, 08:09:33 pm »
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FWIW, I gave the rest of Gloucester and Salem County to NJ-1 because they are Democratic enough and then drew NJ-12 closer into Camden by pulling in Haddon Heights, Pennsauken, and Haddonfield.

My goal with that was to shore up LoBiondo by putting the D parts of Cumberland County into NJ-01, which necessitated dropping the more R parts of Gloucester.

Anyway, you could rearrange NJ-07 and NJ-11 to put the Union County R areas in NJ-11 in exchange for most of the Hunterdon/Somerset/Mercer parts of NJ-11. I just figured the Union R areas would prefer to keep their current Rep, but perhaps not as Lance hasn't been around long.
« Last Edit: December 23, 2010, 08:11:28 pm by Verily »Logged
Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #7 on: December 23, 2010, 08:15:11 pm »
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FWIW, I gave the rest of Gloucester and Salem County to NJ-1 because they are Democratic enough and then drew NJ-12 closer into Camden by pulling in Haddon Heights, Pennsauken, and Haddonfield.

My goal with that was to shore up LoBiondo by putting the D parts of Cumberland County into NJ-01, which necessitated dropping the more R parts of Gloucester.

Anyway, you could rearrange NJ-07 and NJ-11 to put the Union County R areas in NJ-11 in exchange for most of the Hunterdon/Somerset/Mercer parts of NJ-11. I just figured the Union R areas would prefer to keep their current Rep, but perhaps not as Lance hasn't been around long.

I think Lance would do better in his home county of Hunterdon. I would give Lance the rest of Hunterdon County, and parts of Somerset as necessary, in exchange for Union County.

And I object most strongly to being placed in Frelinghuysen's district! Tongue
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« Reply #8 on: December 23, 2010, 08:33:08 pm »
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Interesting, it swung to Corzine. I had to put it in my Rush Holt district and was worried that it was a Republican town.
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« Reply #9 on: December 23, 2010, 08:40:41 pm »
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Interesting, it swung to Corzine. I had to put it in my Rush Holt district and was worried that it was a Republican town.

If I'm not mistaken, it is more Republican on the local level. Also, the areas nearer to Trenton are more urban and minority-heavy, so they would likely be more Democratic than areas to the south and east. If a similar plan is adopted, it's likely that Hamilton would be split, with the areas close to Trenton put into a Democratic district (presumably Holt's) and the rest put into Smith's district.
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« Reply #10 on: December 23, 2010, 09:11:36 pm »
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Interesting, it swung to Corzine. I had to put it in my Rush Holt district and was worried that it was a Republican town.

If I'm not mistaken, it is more Republican on the local level. Also, the areas nearer to Trenton are more urban and minority-heavy, so they would likely be more Democratic than areas to the south and east. If a similar plan is adopted, it's likely that Hamilton would be split, with the areas close to Trenton put into a Democratic district (presumably Holt's) and the rest put into Smith's district.

I have it in my mind as a mini Nassau County.
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« Reply #11 on: December 23, 2010, 09:16:15 pm »
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Anyway, you could rearrange NJ-07 and NJ-11 to put the Union County R areas in NJ-11 in exchange for most of the Hunterdon/Somerset/Mercer parts of NJ-11.

What's interesting is that if you do that, your new NJ-7 is nearly identical to the NJ-12 of the 1990s, before Trenton was added to make it safer. The effect of dismantling Runyan's district is to draw Holt into Runyan's district, eliminate Lance's district, and leave Holt's district empty but perhaps with Lance's home in it.

I'm not nitpicking so much as free associating.
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« Reply #12 on: December 24, 2010, 12:45:34 am »

I'm curious as to the number of municipalities that had to be split in Verily's map. I note that the last two cycles had 20-30 splits in order to get exact population equality. I'd be surprised if the commission goes much further than that in splits this time.
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« Reply #13 on: December 24, 2010, 02:15:28 am »
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And I object most strongly to being placed in Frelinghuysen's district! Tongue

What's the matter with Frelinghuysen?
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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #14 on: December 24, 2010, 03:44:31 am »
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And I object most strongly to being placed in Frelinghuysen's district! Tongue

What's the matter with Frelinghuysen?

Perhaps I should rephrase that as "I don't want the district I live in to be dominated by Morris County."
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« Reply #15 on: December 24, 2010, 10:18:34 am »
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And I object most strongly to being placed in Frelinghuysen's district! Tongue
What's the matter with Frelinghuysen?
Perhaps I should rephrase that as "I don't want the district I live in to be dominated by Morris County."

Oh, ha.  Most of it's pretty similar to Hunterdon actually.  More like Warren, but still pretty similar.  Besides, it's not like counties mean anything in Jersey.  The Somerset Hills have WAY more in common with eastern Hunterdon and southern Morris than the rest of Somerset.
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« Reply #16 on: December 24, 2010, 11:30:26 am »
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Okay, here's the list of split municipalities. I only listed split counties. 31 total. A few could be fairly painlessly eliminated.

Bergen County
Tenafly

Passaic County
None

Hudson County
North Bergen
Guttenberg
West New York
Weehawken
Jersey City

Essex County
Belleville
Bloomfield
Montclair
West Orange
Newark

Union County
Summit
Union
Roselle Park
Elizabeth
Linden
Rahway
Westfield
Scotch Plains

Middlesex County
Edison
Woodbridge
Carteret

Monmouth County
Middletown
Hazlet

Somerset County
Franklin (aka Somerset)

Hunterdon County
None

Mercer County
Hopewell Twp
Ewing (Both could be eliminated if Holt moved to Princeton.)
Hamilton

Ocean County
Dover (aka Toms River)

Burlington County
None

Camden County
None

Gloucester County
Monroe

Cumberland County
Fairfield
« Last Edit: December 24, 2010, 11:37:54 am by Verily »Logged
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« Reply #17 on: December 24, 2010, 11:35:49 am »
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Interesting, it swung to Corzine. I had to put it in my Rush Holt district and was worried that it was a Republican town.

Smith lives there. That's the main reason I put (most of) it in his district.
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« Reply #18 on: December 29, 2010, 12:41:06 pm »
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From what I've heard, nobody is talking about eliminating Runyan or any of the 4 Southern districts.


The way I see it, if they're pairing an incumbent from each party, it has to be Holt/Lance or Rodney/Pascrell. Any other way, the lines become hideous, or 1 side or the other is heavily disadvantaged.

I figure Andrews, Lobiondo, Runyan, Smith, Pallone, Rothman, Sires, Payne, Garrett are safe. One of the other 4 guys gets the axe.

The Republicans, I think, are going to throw heavily Democratic Patterson into Sires's Hispanic district, and take the rest of the existing 8th and give it to Rodney, Garrett, Payne, and Rothman.

The Democrats, I think, are going to merge Morris/Somerset/Hunterdon into a single district, and chop the Republican areas of Union/Middlesex county into pieces and split them.


Merging Holt and Lance somewhere in Somerset/Hunterdon/Middlesex county district centered around the Brunswicks is probably the 'fair fight' setup. Lance probably gives it away and runs for Senate though.

Merging Rodney and Pascrell involves throwing Passaic and Morris in the same district.
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« Reply #19 on: December 29, 2010, 12:50:29 pm »
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The Republicans, I think, are going to throw heavily Democratic Patterson into Sires's Hispanic district

What towns would you use to connect Paterson to JC and Newark? Would it still connect down to Perth Amboy?
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« Reply #20 on: December 29, 2010, 12:55:36 pm »
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The Republicans, I think, are going to throw heavily Democratic Patterson into Sires's Hispanic district

What towns would you use to connect Paterson to JC and Newark? Would it still connect down to Perth Amboy?

No, you ditch the Elizabeth/Perth Amboy leg entirely.

Newark is already connected to JC under the current setup. All you have to do is connect Patterson to Newark through Passaic City and down the Bergen/Essex border. It sort of shapes like a U.
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« Reply #21 on: December 29, 2010, 03:40:42 pm »
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The Republicans, I think, are going to throw heavily Democratic Patterson into Sires's Hispanic district

What towns would you use to connect Paterson to JC and Newark? Would it still connect down to Perth Amboy?

No, you ditch the Elizabeth/Perth Amboy leg entirely.

Newark is already connected to JC under the current setup. All you have to do is connect Patterson to Newark through Passaic City and down the Bergen/Essex border. It sort of shapes like a U.

At first I didn't think that was possible without screwing over a Republican, but it seems like it can be done.





Still, I don't think the Democrats on the Redistricting Commission are going to go along with it. I still think the Holt/Lance matchup is the most likely outcome.
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« Reply #22 on: December 29, 2010, 03:58:41 pm »
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Yep, what you drew is basically a perfect 6-6 map for the GOP.

I drew almost exactly the same thing with very minor modifications. Sussex, Morris, Hunderdon/Somerset, Monmouth, and Ocean form the cores of 5 GOP districts.


The only modifications I made is that you have too much of Rodney's district in Essex county. You really want to get that West Orange/Bloomfield area in some Democratic district (Livingston, West Caldwell, North Caldwell are fine). Heavily Republican Middletown and Hazlet can go into Chis Smith's district, that southern tip of Hudson around Bayonne into Pallone's, and shove Payne's district west a bit into West Orange.

But we're talking about only shifting around 20k people or so.

I did it relatively cleanly without splitting a whole lot of townships. Under 10 I believe, not counting Jersey City, Newark, etc.

Technically the easiest path for the Democrats to form 7 strong seats is in the southern part of the state. Lobiondo's 2nd I believe has a Dem PVI, and could easily be made more Democratic by moving Democrats in from the 1st, and moving Willingboro into the 1st. The problem of course is that Lobiondo is entrenched. And as long as those VRA 10th and 13th exist (the 13th especially is completely boxed in), its hard to use the remaining 4 Democrats (Rothman, Pascrell, Holt, Pallone) to soak what is a fair number of GOP votes. Nobody really wants to touch areas like Monmouth county, or North Bergen. Rush Holt is sitting in a 54% Kerry seat.

« Last Edit: December 29, 2010, 04:36:02 pm by krazen1211 »Logged
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« Reply #23 on: December 29, 2010, 08:20:50 pm »
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Yep, what you drew is basically a perfect 6-6 map for the GOP.

I drew almost exactly the same thing with very minor modifications. Sussex, Morris, Hunderdon/Somerset, Monmouth, and Ocean form the cores of 5 GOP districts.


The only modifications I made is that you have too much of Rodney's district in Essex county. You really want to get that West Orange/Bloomfield area in some Democratic district (Livingston, West Caldwell, North Caldwell are fine). Heavily Republican Middletown and Hazlet can go into Chis Smith's district, that southern tip of Hudson around Bayonne into Pallone's, and shove Payne's district west a bit into West Orange.

But we're talking about only shifting around 20k people or so.

I did it relatively cleanly without splitting a whole lot of townships. Under 10 I believe, not counting Jersey City, Newark, etc.

Technically the easiest path for the Democrats to form 7 strong seats is in the southern part of the state. Lobiondo's 2nd I believe has a Dem PVI, and could easily be made more Democratic by moving Democrats in from the 1st, and moving Willingboro into the 1st. The problem of course is that Lobiondo is entrenched. And as long as those VRA 10th and 13th exist (the 13th especially is completely boxed in), its hard to use the remaining 4 Democrats (Rothman, Pascrell, Holt, Pallone) to soak what is a fair number of GOP votes. Nobody really wants to touch areas like Monmouth county, or North Bergen. Rush Holt is sitting in a 54% Kerry seat.


I think an easier way for the Democrats to gain a seat in South Jersey is to shift the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd slightly counterclockwise. LoBiondo picks up much of Ocean County, and Andrews picks up Salem County and possibly even Bridgeton. Runyan gets stuck in a Burlington-Camden district, picking up Pennsauken and Voorhees, and swapping northern Ocean County with Smith in exchange for northern Burlington County. This way you don't have the trouble of a proven, entrenched incumbent.

Something like this:

« Last Edit: December 29, 2010, 08:49:54 pm by His Excellency Chancellor Vazdul, Senator of Bedford Parish »Logged

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« Reply #24 on: December 29, 2010, 08:56:24 pm »
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Can I ask your thinking behind putting that bit of East Windsor in the 3rd district? My mother lives there, so I'm curious.
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