U.S. House Redistricting: Illinois

[ill ind]

  I've been going through the population estimates and demographic estimates from sampling data released by the Census Bureas.
  I call it:  There will be no second Hispanic district created in Illinois.  The population is too spread out.  I can create one from the south area, but there is no way that I can see that a free standing majority Hispanic District can be created from the northern area--unless the Dems want to run Quigley against Gutierez--and that defeats the purpose of their controlling the remap.
  Get ready for another 10 years of the earmuff district.

[Verily]

  I've been going through the population estimates and demographic estimates from sampling data released by the Census Bureas.
  I call it:  There will be no second Hispanic district created in Illinois.  The population is too spread out.  I can create one from the south area, but there is no way that I can see that a free standing majority Hispanic District can be created from the northern area--unless the Dems want to run Quigley against Gutierez--and that defeats the purpose of their controlling the remap.
  Get ready for another 10 years of the earmuff district.

Gutierrez lives in the southern half, no? So it would be Quigley alone in the new Hispanic district. Probably not his first choice, but I don't think he'd be in any real danger of a primary challenge.

[Linus Van Pelt]

  I've been going through the population estimates and demographic estimates from sampling data released by the Census Bureas.
  I call it:  There will be no second Hispanic district created in Illinois.  The population is too spread out.  I can create one from the south area, but there is no way that I can see that a free standing majority Hispanic District can be created from the northern area--unless the Dems want to run Quigley against Gutierez--and that defeats the purpose of their controlling the remap.
  Get ready for another 10 years of the earmuff district.

Gutierrez lives in the southern half, no? So it would be Quigley alone in the new Hispanic district. Probably not his first choice, but I don't think he'd be in any real danger of a primary challenge.

Also, so long as you need just the southern part to make a Hispanic district, doesn't it make sense,  if there's only one district, to use the northern Hispanics to make the northern suburban districts more D?

[muon2]

  I've been going through the population estimates and demographic estimates from sampling data released by the Census Bureas.
  I call it:  There will be no second Hispanic district created in Illinois.  The population is too spread out.  I can create one from the south area, but there is no way that I can see that a free standing majority Hispanic District can be created from the northern area--unless the Dems want to run Quigley against Gutierez--and that defeats the purpose of their controlling the remap.
  Get ready for another 10 years of the earmuff district.

Gutierrez lives in the southern half, no? So it would be Quigley alone in the new Hispanic district. Probably not his first choice, but I don't think he'd be in any real danger of a primary challenge.

Gutierrez is from the northern part, but he doesn't currently live in the district. Quigley doesn't live that far from him, but he's not in the Hispanic area.

It's not hard to make a southern district that is compact and easily exceeds 50% Hispanic VAP.

The northern one is trickier. One needs to link the current northern part of IL-4 to the Hispanic suburbs and neighborhoods around O'Hare, including the NE part of DuPage. That link probably won't be any wider than a railroad right-of-way at some points. Combining those two areas creates enough VAP to exceed 50%. The number varies from 52-54% depending on how much is cut from the Chicago parts of IL-5.

[ill ind]

  I was adding it up by census districts and couldn't get it to work out in the north.  I had it extending out to Addison and Elk Grove townships, but had the Hispanic population at 55% and still 150,000 short on population.  Problem is the gentrification of West Town, Logan Square and a little in Humbolt Park have dropped the Hispanic population in those areas quite a bit.  Thoes are the bulwark of the eastern end of the north part of Il-4.
  I could get south to work, but it wasn't that easy.  I had to incorporate in a long branch down to Joliet to get a 57% Hispanic district--(then work Lipinski's into a reverse earmuff around Joliet--lol).  (Hispanics don't vote in the same percentages as whites or African Americans, so a 57% Hispanic district is absolutely no guarantee of a Hispanic representative.)

Ill Ind

[ill ind]

  I forgot to add that if one keeps a single Hispanic district getting a 75%+ Hispanic district is pretty easily accomplished.  BTW I found a path through southern Proviso Township that incorporates even less population than the present one does!!

Ill Ind

[Bacon King]

57% Hispanic may not even break 50% VAP.

[IllinoisR]

Hey everybody, I just found this forum with google alerts and am working on a website to help analyze redistricting in Illinois called Precinctmaps.com. Right now I'm just getting started in Cook County(about 2/3rds done), making township maps overlayed with 2010 election data to gauge partisan lean.

Anyway, when I've gotten through Cook and collar counties I'll start sharing some redistricting theories. Feel free to reference some of the 2010 election maps I've got up in the mean time.

PS Does anyone in Illinois have the current precinct boundary .shp file for Illinois? I've noticed some of the posts in this thread are using old boundaries currently on the census site (dated 2000, but that really means they were used in the 90's). After looking closely at a couple townships, I decided the census precinct boundary file was junk.

Happy mapping!

[krazen1211]

Do you have any feeling as to how aggressive the Dems will be Muon2 in getting rid of GOP seats in Illinois?  Will they settle for 2, or go for 6?

I have no inside info at this point, but it would seem reasonable to try to recover the four lost seats from this year. A new Hispanic seat, two suburban ones and one downstate should be possible.

So five R's eliminated?

It's entirely possible. Obama will be at the top of the ticket again, so there is a balance that must be done between the current incumbent Dems and how many seats they want to put at risk in 2014.

The goal here should probably be something like 13-5.

IL-1 and IL-2 can easily take out Kinzinger, IL-9 can take out IL-10. Combine Biggert and Roskam into 1 super GOP suburban district. Redraw the ridiculous Quad Cities district to be something much more Democratic. Then just eliminate something downstate.

[muon2]

Do you have any feeling as to how aggressive the Dems will be Muon2 in getting rid of GOP seats in Illinois?  Will they settle for 2, or go for 6?

I have no inside info at this point, but it would seem reasonable to try to recover the four lost seats from this year. A new Hispanic seat, two suburban ones and one downstate should be possible.

So five R's eliminated?

It's entirely possible. Obama will be at the top of the ticket again, so there is a balance that must be done between the current incumbent Dems and how many seats they want to put at risk in 2014.

The goal here should probably be something like 13-5.

IL-1 and IL-2 can easily take out Kinzinger, IL-9 can take out IL-10. Combine Biggert and Roskam into 1 super GOP suburban district. Redraw the ridiculous Quad Cities district to be something much more Democratic. Then just eliminate something downstate.

It's certainly possible to take out 6 Rs to get a 13-5 delegation. However, I suspect it will require some sitting Ds to move out of their comfort zone in revised districts (eg IL-9 stretching up to WI), and even so, a couple of downstate districts may only be about D+2.

The Quad Cities district was drawn to be as Dem as possible 10 years ago without using Peoria. Presumable it could add Peoria now to boost its numbers. IL-17 could also be split to try to bolster 2 districts per your 13-5 hypothesis.

[krazen1211]

It's certainly possible to take out 6 Rs to get a 13-5 delegation. However, I suspect it will require some sitting Ds to move out of their comfort zone in revised districts (eg IL-9 stretching up to WI), and even so, a couple of downstate districts may only be about D+2.

The Quad Cities district was drawn to be as Dem as possible 10 years ago without using Peoria. Presumable it could add Peoria now to boost its numbers. IL-17 could also be split to try to bolster 2 districts per your 13-5 hypothesis.

Are the numbers there to support 3 downstate districts? It seems like the safer bet is to eliminate Schock, draw 2 downstate districts (12, 17), leave Shimkus, Johnson, Hultgren, Manzullo, Roskam alone, and swamp Biggert, Dold, Kinzinger with Chicago votes.

The remaining Republican seat is Walsh; I haven't figured out a way to get rid of him as well without really tortured lines because he's only bordering Republicans, but I guess you run him into Rockford or Cook County.

You're completely right about the D+3 or so limit downstate. It just appears at first glance that trying to attack Johnson as well as Schilling is going to completely backfire.

[IllinoisR]

I've heard the Democratic organization really dropped the ball in Rock Island last Nov. Is there still a much to work with out in IL-17? That was the core of the district, as I recall when I went to college out at WIU.

Anybody crunch the numbers on that area? Can the Rock Island group bounce right back?

[DrScholl]

13-5 is not hard to achieve at all. Three Republican downstate districts, as well as one in DuPage County and one anchored on McHenry County. All of that can be done very safely.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just a thought, but it may make more sense to draw fantasy maps with reference to the patterns in this map:



Rather than those in this one:

[IllinoisR]

Sweet, just noticed the Census finally has the 2010 voter district shapefiles for all 102 counties of Illinois in the TIGER section.

[muon2]

13-5 is not hard to achieve at all. Three Republican downstate districts, as well as one in DuPage County and one anchored on McHenry County. All of that can be done very safely.

Where would you put the GOP areas of the current CD-14? Is that going to go with McHenry? If so, it's too big and part will have to go with another GOP district. What areas do you add to Rockford to bring it up to size yet still make it winnable for the Dems? I think it's tough to get three downstate Dem districts and have all perform well (ie D+5 or so).

[minionofmidas]

Just a thought, but it may make more sense to draw fantasy maps with reference to the patterns in this map:



Rather than those in this one:

Except for Cook County*, that is the same pattern really. Just a weaker result.

*ie, there are no animals in this room, except for the elephant of course.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's a related pattern, but there are significant differences in places, some of which might be important when gerrymandering.

[IllinoisR]

That's a weird color scheme... is Illinois turning pink? what are the characteristics of the pink demographic?

[Verily]

That's a weird color scheme... is Illinois turning pink? what are the characteristics of the pink demographic?

The first map is % of the vote for Kerry in 2004; the second is % of the vote for Obama in 2008.

[IllinoisR]

ok, I thought it had to do with gambling expansion and civil unions. lol

[RI]

That's a weird color scheme... is Illinois turning pink? what are the characteristics of the pink demographic?

The first map is % of the vote for Kerry in 2004; the second is % of the vote for Obama in 2008.

Actually no. The first map is Quinn's percentage in 2010.

[IllinoisR]

lol. no one knows... Maybe it's the public anger/outrage index.

No more maps with hot pink.

Has anyone made a Scott Lee Cohen map?

[krazen1211]

It's certainly possible to take out 6 Rs to get a 13-5 delegation. However, I suspect it will require some sitting Ds to move out of their comfort zone in revised districts (eg IL-9 stretching up to WI), and even so, a couple of downstate districts may only be about D+2.

The Quad Cities district was drawn to be as Dem as possible 10 years ago without using Peoria. Presumable it could add Peoria now to boost its numbers. IL-17 could also be split to try to bolster 2 districts per your 13-5 hypothesis.

Update:

Population figures for the Cook County districts were brutal. The Rush/Jackson districts are about 150k below each.

I don't think 13-5 is realistic given the updated figures. The Kinzinger seat seems like an obvious target for elimination, Dold can easily be swamped by Schakowsky,  and Biggert can probably be taken out by Quigley and Lipinski. The Costello district isn't exactly a democratic stronghold either.


These districts have to last a decade. Well, technically not, I'm not sure what IL law is, but this might go the way of PA 2000.

[Sbane]

They should give Lipinski a swing district.