U.S. House Redistricting: Illinois

[Brittain33]

Some scenarios are kicked around in this article. It's a rare bit of Democratic cockiness in the current environment,

http://www.chicagonewscoop.org/redistricting-reality-ahead-for-cocky-g-o-p/

They talked about the possibility of creating a Dem-friendly district mid-state based on Champaign, Decatur, and Peoria, and presumably the Quad Cities if they can justify it. I may try to draw these districts with Dave's App tonight because I never considered the possibility of reconstituting a Lane Evans district using different sources...

[Skill and Chance]

If I were Pat Quinn, I wouldn't be planning gerrymandered maps right now.  I would be meeting with Snyder and/or Kasich about a bipartisan move to independent redistricting.

[minionofmidas]

If I were Pat Quinn, I wouldn't be planning gerrymandered maps right now.  I would be meeting with Snyder and/or Kasich about a bipartisan move to independent redistricting.

No, that's what you'd be doing if you were yourself and somehow found yourself Governor of Illinois by magic. If you were Pat Quinn, IL D internal politics would probably keep you from even consciously entertaining such a commonsense idea. After all, you'll want these people, some of which will hope to serve in Congress soon, to support your administration.

[Skill and Chance]

If I were Pat Quinn, I wouldn't be planning gerrymandered maps right now.  I would be meeting with Snyder and/or Kasich about a bipartisan move to independent redistricting.

No, that's what you'd be doing if you were yourself and somehow found yourself Governor of Illinois by magic. If you were Pat Quinn, IL D internal politics would probably keep you from even consciously entertaining such a commonsense idea. After all, you'll want these people, some of which will hope to serve in Congress soon, to support your administration.

A man can dream, right?  I wonder, for the states that currently have independent redistricting and didn't get it by referendum, did it always come up during a deadlock with divided government, or do we ever see examples of one party acting "altruistically"?  I put altruistically in quotes because I would expect that after rare takeover by the permanent outparty (ex. a GOP takeover of Maryland or something like that), there would be every incentive to block the normal winners from their advantage in the future.

[Linus Van Pelt]

(deleted this preliminary thing: see below)

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

If I were Pat Quinn, I wouldn't be planning gerrymandered maps right now.  I would be meeting with Snyder and/or Kasich about a bipartisan move to independent redistricting.

No, that's what you'd be doing if you were yourself and somehow found yourself Governor of Illinois by magic. If you were Pat Quinn, IL D internal politics would probably keep you from even consciously entertaining such a commonsense idea. After all, you'll want these people, some of which will hope to serve in Congress soon, to support your administration.

A man can dream, right?  I wonder, for the states that currently have independent redistricting and didn't get it by referendum, did it always come up during a deadlock with divided government, or do we ever see examples of one party acting "altruistically"?  I put altruistically in quotes because I would expect that after rare takeover by the permanent outparty (ex. a GOP takeover of Maryland or something like that), there would be every incentive to block the normal winners from their advantage in the future.

New Jersey's was passed by Democrats in a lame duck session in 1991 after they lost control of the state legislature. The state constitution was amended in 1995.

[enlightened despot]

Schroeder's map is better and more realistic, but I drew a Champaign/Decatur/Peoria district and wanted to share it. It's the blue district that goes NW/SE.

I don't know who lives where/how the lines are drawn, but I saw that three counties/county combinations NW of Chicago are about the right size for districts according to DRA's information. Is there any chance the silver, light blue and light purple districts could exist in the real world?

[Linus Van Pelt]

OK, here's a possible Democratic gerrymander. Comments in the next post.

[Torie]

I wonder if one just went wild, whether or not while still comporting with the VRA, the GOP could be held to just two seats, one in the collar counties, and one downstate.  You just dilute down the minority districts to the minimum necessary, and string out the Chicago districts to chew up the collar county precincts, and beyond.

[Linus Van Pelt]

(moving from the south to Chicagoland)

light blue: Costello (D), pretty much unchanged.

yellow: R, obviously. Shimkus will run here; Johnson has to decide whether to challenge him or whether to try to hold the orange district.

orange: new D-leaning district with Springfield, Bloomington/Normal & Champaign/Urbana. Not completely unwinnable for the Reps, but pretty tough.

the west-central green district: Schock, R.

purple, along the Mississippi: the key here is putting Rockford in this district, which keeps it roughly the same kind of district it is now (basically labor Dem, but not totally safe in a bad year like 2010), while making it less weird-shaped and freeing up Springfield for the other orange seat).

light green, north-Central: Kinzinger and Hultgren forced into a primary.

and, then, in Chicagoland:
dark green: Rush, 54% black

dark blue: Jackson, 54% black

purple, SW Cook: Lipinski

red: new Mexican district; 61% Hispanic

grey, Davis: 54% black

yellow: Gutierrez - 54% Hispanic

forest green: Quigley

pale blue: Schakowsky. Dold could try to hold it, but it's not happening.

purple, NW Cook: I assume this is a D seat. If it isn't, you could exchange some territory with the green one.

beige: I've put all the minorities in the western suburbs I could find here. Biggert could try to hold it, but it's pretty tough at only 57% white.

brown: Roskam.

pink: assuming what's his name has beaten Melissa Bean, he's forced into a primary with Manzullo.

[muon2]

(moving from the south to Chicagoland)

light blue: Costello (D), pretty much unchanged.

yellow: R, obviously. Shimkus will run here; Johnson has to decide whether to challenge him or whether to try to hold the orange district.

orange: new D-leaning district with Springfield, Bloomington/Normal & Champaign/Urbana. Not completely unwinnable for the Reps, but pretty tough.

the west-central green district: Schock, R.

purple, along the Mississippi: the key here is putting Rockford in this district, which keeps it roughly the same kind of district it is now (basically labor Dem, but not totally safe in a bad year like 2010), while making it less weird-shaped and freeing up Springfield for the other orange seat).

light green, north-Central: Kinzinger and Hultgren forced into a primary.

and, then, in Chicagoland:
dark green: Rush, 54% black

dark blue: Jackson, 54% black

purple, SW Cook: Lipinski

red: new Mexican district; 61% Hispanic

grey, Davis: 54% black

yellow: Gutierrez - 54% Hispanic

forest green: Quigley

pale blue: Schakowsky. Dold could try to hold it, but it's not happening.

purple, NW Cook: I assume this is a D seat. If it isn't, you could exchange some territory with the green one.

beige: I've put all the minorities in the western suburbs I could find here. Biggert could try to hold it, but it's pretty tough at only 57% white.

brown: Roskam.

pink: assuming what's his name has beaten Melissa Bean, he's forced into a primary with Manzullo.

Not that it matters in IL, but here's where in reps would live on your map.

Shimkus is in Madison county in the light blue district with Costello.

Johnson does live in the orange district. Shock and Shilling are in the districts you would expect.

Manzullo lives in Ogle county which put him in the light green district.

Hultgren lives in the brown district with Roskam, but most of his current state senate district is in the beige district.

Kinzinger is in Kankakee county in the dark green district with Jackson (not Rush).

Rush lives in the grey district with Davis. In 2001 Rush was quite particular about residency both for himself and potential opponents, going so far as to make sure a certain state sen. Obama was drawn out of the district. Biggert also lives in this grey district in the DuPage part.

Dold does live in the pale blue district with Schakowsky. So does Walsh who doesn't live in the 8th, but actually lives quite near Dold (Bean didn't live in the 8th either so it wasn't an issue.) Quigley may also live in this district and is near the edge in any case.

Gutierrez may be in the forest green district, but he doesn't live in the 4th district now.

Lipinski is in the purple district.

[Torie]

Do you have any feeling as to how aggressive the Dems will be Muon2 in getting rid of GOP seats in Illinois?  Will they settle for 2, or go for 6?

[muon2]

Do you have any feeling as to how aggressive the Dems will be Muon2 in getting rid of GOP seats in Illinois?  Will they settle for 2, or go for 6?

I have no inside info at this point, but it would seem reasonable to try to recover the four lost seats from this year. A new Hispanic seat, two suburban ones and one downstate should be possible.

[Torie]

Do you have any feeling as to how aggressive the Dems will be Muon2 in getting rid of GOP seats in Illinois?  Will they settle for 2, or go for 6?

I have no inside info at this point, but it would seem reasonable to try to recover the four lost seats from this year. A new Hispanic seat, two suburban ones and one downstate should be possible.

You, my friend, should have run for governor. Why didn't you?  

If you check the Michigan redistricting thread, I think I came up with a plan to solve the Detroit metro area conundrum, and would appreciate your comments when you have time. Among other things, this lawyer relies on you for the law on these matters - you are just that good.   But I also think beyond that, I came up with the partisan deus ex machina. Unless of course, I missed something, which happens - often.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's a Dem map of Chicago. It's ugly as hell.

State:



Chicago:





Wider view of NE Illinois:



IL-01 (blue, Bobby Rush - D) - Stretches down into Will County to soak up some Republican votes. 53% black.
IL-02 (green, Jesse Jackson Jr. - D) - Same as above; 52% black.
IL-03 (purple, Dan Lipinski - D) This one gets pushed out into the suburbs; it hooks around through DuPage to pull in some parts of northern Cook County. It should still lean Dem, but not as much. Biggert might try to run here; her house is either just inside or more likely just outside the border.
IL-04 (red, Luis Gutierrez - D) - Southern half of his old district; 62% Hispanic.
IL-05 (yellow, Michael Quigley - D) - Had to combine his district with parts of IL-04 to make another Hispanic district. It's 57% Hispanic. Quigley would probably not be the favorite to survive here.
IL-06 (teal, Pete Roskam - R and Judy Biggert - R) - Thrown together, it's actually not a whole lot of either Roskam or Biggert's district. It should be pretty safe for the primary victor, assuming Biggert were to run here.
IL-07 (grey, Danny Davis - D) - Mostly the same, just expands a bit. 56% black.
IL-08 (light purple, open) - Drew McHenry out of the district, so Walsh is put into Manzullo's district. Adds more of Cook County; should be a little less Republican now, Bean would likely make a strong comeback.
IL-09 (light teal, Jan Schakowsky - D) - Moves south somewhat, still safe D.
IL-10 (magenta, Bob Dold - R) - Pretty much the same; if the Democrats can just get someone not named Dan Seals to win the nomination...
IL-11 (very light green, Adam Kinzinger - R) - Drops a bunch of rural area and expands north into Bolingbrook. Should be more of a swing district now. Just get a new candidate, Dems.
IL-12 (light blue, Jerry Costello - D and John Shimkus - R) - All the Dem-leaning territory in the southern half of the state. Should remain safe for Costello. Shimkus lives in this district, but he could easily move into the new IL-13.
IL-13 (pink, open) - Formerly IL-19, the rest of the southern half of the state. Shimkus would go here. Safe R.
IL-14 (brown, Randy Hultgren - R) - Gathers up as much Dem-friendly territory in Kane County, then instead of the old phallic southwest-pointing district, goes northwest through DeKalb to Rockford (cue synthesizer music). Bill Foster could retake this district; the Hispanic percentage increased from 18% to 25%, and the black percentage from 5% to 9%.
IL-15 (orange, Tim Johnson - R) - I tried to put as much not-heavily-Republican territory in this district as possible; it's centered in Champaign-Urbana and Bloomington. Probably wouldn't be too hard for Johnson to hold, but it's not out of the realm of possibility that it could give the Republicans a headache in an open seat.
IL-16 (light green, Don Manzullo - R and Joe Walsh - R) - Cuts out Rockford and stretches east to take in McHenry and parts of Lake and a bit of Cook County. Safe R.
IL-17 (purple, Bobby Schilling - R and Aaron Schock - R) - About as ridiculous as before, with the bonus of adding Peoria to the district. It doesn't, however, stretch all the way south to IL-14. Schock lives in Peoria, but would move to IL-18. Schilling would probably lose to a decent Democrat; again, get a better candidate, Dems.
IL-18 (yellow, open) - Safe R. Schock goes here.

[muon2]

Here's a Dem map of Chicago. It's ugly as hell.

State:



Chicago:





Wider view of NE Illinois:



IL-01 (blue, Bobby Rush - D) - Stretches down into Will County to soak up some Republican votes. 53% black.
IL-02 (green, Jesse Jackson Jr. - D) - Same as above; 52% black.
IL-03 (purple, Dan Lipinski - D) This one gets pushed out into the suburbs; it hooks around through DuPage to pull in some parts of northern Cook County. It should still lean Dem, but not as much. Biggert might try to run here; her house is either just inside or more likely just outside the border.
IL-04 (red, Luis Gutierrez - D) - Southern half of his old district; 62% Hispanic.
IL-05 (yellow, Michael Quigley - D) - Had to combine his district with parts of IL-04 to make another Hispanic district. It's 57% Hispanic. Quigley would probably not be the favorite to survive here.
IL-06 (teal, Pete Roskam - R and Judy Biggert - R) - Thrown together, it's actually not a whole lot of either Roskam or Biggert's district. It should be pretty safe for the primary victor, assuming Biggert were to run here.
IL-07 (grey, Danny Davis - D) - Mostly the same, just expands a bit. 56% black.
IL-08 (light purple, open) - Drew McHenry out of the district, so Walsh is put into Manzullo's district. Adds more of Cook County; should be a little less Republican now, Bean would likely make a strong comeback.
IL-09 (light teal, Jan Schakowsky - D) - Moves south somewhat, still safe D.
IL-10 (magenta, Bob Dold - R) - Pretty much the same; if the Democrats can just get someone not named Dan Seals to win the nomination...
IL-11 (very light green, Adam Kinzinger - R) - Drops a bunch of rural area and expands north into Bolingbrook. Should be more of a swing district now. Just get a new candidate, Dems.
IL-12 (light blue, Jerry Costello - D and John Shimkus - R) - All the Dem-leaning territory in the southern half of the state. Should remain safe for Costello. Shimkus lives in this district, but he could easily move into the new IL-13.
IL-13 (pink, open) - Formerly IL-19, the rest of the southern half of the state. Shimkus would go here. Safe R.
IL-14 (brown, Randy Hultgren - R) - Gathers up as much Dem-friendly territory in Kane County, then instead of the old phallic southwest-pointing district, goes northwest through DeKalb to Rockford (cue synthesizer music). Bill Foster could retake this district; the Hispanic percentage increased from 18% to 25%, and the black percentage from 5% to 9%.
IL-15 (orange, Tim Johnson - R) - I tried to put as much not-heavily-Republican territory in this district as possible; it's centered in Champaign-Urbana and Bloomington. Probably wouldn't be too hard for Johnson to hold, but it's not out of the realm of possibility that it could give the Republicans a headache in an open seat.
IL-16 (light green, Don Manzullo - R and Joe Walsh - R) - Cuts out Rockford and stretches east to take in McHenry and parts of Lake and a bit of Cook County. Safe R.
IL-17 (purple, Bobby Schilling - R and Aaron Schock - R) - About as ridiculous as before, with the bonus of adding Peoria to the district. It doesn't, however, stretch all the way south to IL-14. Schock lives in Peoria, but would move to IL-18. Schilling would probably lose to a decent Democrat; again, get a better candidate, Dems.
IL-18 (yellow, open) - Safe R. Schock goes here.

In IL, the congressmen often don't live where you might think. I suspect you would make 5 of the 8 incumbent Dems unhappy with this map.

IL-1 Rush lives at the northern extreme end of his district, and last cycle he was very particular about staying in the district. The map was drawn to keep Obama out of IL-1 in 2000, even though residency is not required. You've put him into Davis' district, and that won't make either happy.

IL-3 Lipinski is in this district, but I don't think he'd be very happy. The DuPage townships you've given him have good organization and regularly vote R, as does a lot of the Cook area. A lot of that area regularly vote for R's for local and state offices. Check the 2004 presidential vote (favorite son Obama is not indicative in IL).

IL-4 This is a wide open seat as you've drawn it. See IL-5.

IL-5 This includes Gutierrez' home and base on the NW side. Quigley lives in Wrigleyville and is in IL-9 as you've drawn it. Also, the difference between Hispanic population
and VAP is about 7.5 to 8% in that area. My conclusion is that you have to go beyond O'Hare or into DuPage or both to be sure of 50% VAP.

IL-6 Roskam, Biggert and Hultgren all live here, but Hultgren would likely run in IL-14 as you drew it.

IL-7 See IL-1.

IL-8 Walsh actually lives in Winnetka near Dold in the SE corner of CD-10. He did grow up in Barrington which is partially in the district you drew, so he would be comfortable there. It's also gained the GOP base of Palatine in Cook, so that helps him.

IL-9 Schakowsky lives here, but you've given this district much of the base from Quigley as well as Quigley's home. Unless Jan is running for another office in 2012, this is not going to play well.

IL-10 This actually does help strengthen the Dems to get rid of Dold.

IL-11 Kinzinger doesn't live anywhere near the district you've drawn. He used to be on the McLean county board at the southern tip of the current CD. This is ideal for Halvorson to hold, if she were the incumbent. However, I tend to think Lipinski will want Joliet to compensate for losing so much of the Chicago part of his district to the new Hispanic seat.

IL-12, 13 This is much like I would expect, too.

IL-14 Not a bad idea for the Dems. Turnout can be a problem in off year elections in Aurora and Rockford so it may be a swing district as drawn.

IL-15 Johnson and Kinzinger both live here, and its the type of pairing I expect will happen for real.

IL-16 Manzullo is in an ideal R hold here.

IL-17 You can make this just a solidly D by dropping Decatur for areas up the Mississippi and across from Peoria. The Dems might want Decatur for your CD-15 instead. It's much better than Effingham.

IL-18 As you noted, Schock can represent whatever hard-R district is left in west central IL.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Someone should tell Wikipedia that they've got so many wrong residences.

[minionofmidas]

Do you have any feeling as to how aggressive the Dems will be Muon2 in getting rid of GOP seats in Illinois?  Will they settle for 2, or go for 6?

I have no inside info at this point, but it would seem reasonable to try to recover the four lost seats from this year. A new Hispanic seat, two suburban ones and one downstate should be possible.

So five R's eliminated?

[muon2]

Someone should tell Wikipedia that they've got so many wrong residences.

That's why I usually refer to Vote Smart, unless I can find addresses from the State Board of Elections. BTW which ones were off?

[muon2]

Do you have any feeling as to how aggressive the Dems will be Muon2 in getting rid of GOP seats in Illinois?  Will they settle for 2, or go for 6?

I have no inside info at this point, but it would seem reasonable to try to recover the four lost seats from this year. A new Hispanic seat, two suburban ones and one downstate should be possible.

So five R's eliminated?

It's entirely possible. Obama will be at the top of the ticket again, so there is a balance that must be done between the current incumbent Dems and how many seats they want to put at risk in 2014.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Walsh is listed as living in McHenry, and Kinzinger in Manteno. Hultgren does live outside the district, I mistook the county it was in for Kane.

[muon2]

Walsh is listed as living in McHenry, and Kinzinger in Manteno. Hultgren does live outside the district, I mistook the county it was in for Kane.

Walsh's previous campaigns in the 1990s were based on his Winnetka home and he was registered there when he filed for the election. He may have taken a new residence during the campaign to be in the district.

Kinzinger did have an apartment in Manteno for the election and was registered there. His hometown is Bloomington and that is where his political base is.

[ill ind]

  I've been looking at the 2005-2009 estimate data and I'm really beginning to doubt if there will be a second Hispanic District.  The population has moved west.  The former bullwarks of the eastern end of the north part of the earmuff--Logan Square, Humbolt Park and West Town have gentrified.  The Logan Square hispanic poulation dropped from 53,847 to 43,235.  I haven't analyzed West Town yet, but am expecting the same.
  The Black population in Chicago dropped by 11% giving wonder as to whether or not 3 majority African American districts can be maintained.  Proviso and Thornton Townships the suburban African American anchors also saw poulation drops.  Two smaller majority African American townships Bloom and Rich did gain in pop, but not enough to supplant the huge Chicago loss.

Ill_Ind

[muon2]

The Chicago Sun-Times posted a nice interactive graphic this week. It shows the estimated racial and ethnic percentages by census tract in the metro Chicago area. It's based on the 2009 estimates and gives a good idea of where the minority districts will go.

[ill ind]

  The New York Times has had one up for a while.  So far I have gone through, looked at, and wrote down the ethnic percentages for every cencus district in Illinois.  Cook Co took longer than all the rest of the state combined.
  Now I'm working on the perspective congressional map--I think 2 Hispanic and 3 AA districts may be possible, but it would be an extremely ugly map.
  Neither side of the present 4th Hispanic District is large enough to stand on its own, so some creative mapping to draw in suburban Hispanic enclaves is a necessity for both.  Same with the AA districts.
  I haven't looked at anything with Illinois 7, but interestingly it contains the fastest growing Chicago neighborhoods--Near North, Near South, Near West and Loop along with some of the fastest decliners--East and West Garfield Park, North Lawndale.  Those areas that have grown have become whiter however.
  As I stated earlier, Logan Square, and West Town have lost considerable Hispanic population as gentrification has made both more white.  South Lawndale dropped like a rock in population, but stayed the same ethnicaly.  Lower West sise did whiten out ever so slightly.  Lots of southwest neighborhoods saw a large influx of hispanics--Archer Heights, Garfield Ridge, Clearing, West Lawn, Chicago Lawn, and the western half of Ashburn--replacing the white residents there.
  Both the AA and Hispanic populations have moved west and into the suburbs.  The AA population more so, as it has declined about 100,000 in Chicago.  The Hispanic population in Chicago overall gained slightly--including a large gain on the southeast side--East Side, South Deering, South Chicago, and Hegewisch areas that wouldn't be able to be drawn into a majority Hispanic District.  JJJ's 2nd had a 15-20% Hispanic population as it stands now.

  One nice thing I found out is that the 77 Chicago Neighborhood boundarries coincide with the census district boundaries.

  More as I go further with this.

Ill_Ind