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Author Topic: Bush Name No Longer a Hinderance for Jeb?  (Read 1916 times)
Whacker77
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« on: November 10, 2010, 11:07:43 am »
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I realize I'm on a quixotic campaign to promote Jeb Bush as the Republican nominee in 2012, but a big hole seems to be developing in the major argument against him.  So often I hear Republicans and conservatives say Jeb can't run because of his last name.  In other words, the Bush brand is broken right now and it will be some time before it is rehabilitated.

I can certainly understand that argument, but the facts seem to be changing.  Last month, a poll in Ohio showed W. and Obama even in that critical state.  Now, today comes word from Gallup that W. and Obama's approval ratings are essentially even.  As we've come to know, two years is a long time in politics.  Given the fact the economy is not likely to improve much (Goldman Sachs has unemployment at 10% in Nov. 2011), who knows how the Bush name will be perceived in 2011.

While poll numbers can be finicky, these numbers and the mood of the country tell me Jeb Bush can win in 2012.  The talk seems to be that Bush has his eye on 2016, but waiting doesn't always work out well.  Just ask Hillary or Marion Cuomo.  If Obama remains low in the polls, Romney could very well beat him.  If that happens, Bush couldn't run in 2016 because that would be Romney's reelection year.  That would force Jeb to wait until 2020.  If Romney were to win reelection in 2016, could Jeb really run and win a "third term" in 2020.  I doubt it.

If Jeb Bush really wants to be president, 2012 has to be the year he runs.  Waiting leaves too much in doubt.  Yesterday a Democrat strategist in Politico put Obama's reelection chances at just 30% so a Republican win is far more likely than anyone could have thought.  A Jeb run could lead to a Republican win and bring a long a solid Republican majority in the Senate (MO, VA, ND, FL, OH, and NE).

Given the tremendous weakness of the likely Republican candidates, the nomination is there for the taking for Jeb Bush.
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« Reply #1 on: November 10, 2010, 12:06:17 pm »
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While I happen to think Jeb Bush would make a very good President
and would support him, I think the country needs a different republican name
to be elected first.

He still has time but I don't think the country will go for a third Republican Pres Bush in a row
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Mjh
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« Reply #2 on: November 10, 2010, 12:14:43 pm »
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Jeb Bush is certainly a far more exciting candidate than most of the current field (with the exception of Mitch Daniels). He has experience from executive office and I think the whole party can unite behind him (which is more than anyone can say about Palin, Huckabee and Romney).

Further more it would probably ensure us Florida, which will be even more important in 2012.
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Volatilesaff
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« Reply #3 on: November 10, 2010, 12:33:07 pm »
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Jeb Bush is another one I don't understand. Why is his name being brought up now? He's been out of office for how long? Republican's are just scraping the bottom of the barrel now.
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Warren '16!
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« Reply #4 on: November 10, 2010, 12:39:47 pm »
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Jeb Bush is another one I don't understand. Why is his name being brought up now? He's been out of office for how long? Republican's are just scraping the bottom of the barrel now.

You supported John Edwards in 2008. He was out of office for three years at the time. Jeb will have been out of office for five years in 2012. That's not much of a difference.
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Volatilesaff
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« Reply #5 on: November 10, 2010, 12:59:06 pm »
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Jeb Bush is another one I don't understand. Why is his name being brought up now? He's been out of office for how long? Republican's are just scraping the bottom of the barrel now.

You supported John Edwards in 2008. He was out of office for three years at the time. Jeb will have been out of office for five years in 2012. That's not much of a difference.

Way to bring up a sore subject, but yeah I see your point I GUESS. Jeb still seems like a far fetched candidate, I honestly doubt he will run. That goes for Gingrich too, though I think he actually will run. 
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Warren '16!
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« Reply #6 on: November 10, 2010, 01:10:30 pm »
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His name may not be a hindrance indeed. By the time 2012 comes along, his brother will have been an ex-President for four years, and Jeb himself will have been an ex-Governor of Florida for five years. He wouldn't get much Tea Party support, the GOP establishment would certainly take his bait.
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #7 on: November 10, 2010, 01:56:21 pm »
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This may depend entirely upon what his brother does in the coming months/years. It looks like he's beginning to publicly defend his time as President, and we'll have to see how that pans out. I know that Nixon's exploits in doing so didn't directly affect the electoral success of other Republicans, but it might be different if the Republican in question is a blood relative.
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« Reply #8 on: November 10, 2010, 02:10:02 pm »
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I would think again before being sure people will not hold his name against him. The whole dynasty effect would turn a lot of people off.
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Whacker77
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« Reply #9 on: November 10, 2010, 02:27:00 pm »
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While the name may not be the hindrance, I can completely understand the worry about a dynasty.  Still, he will be the last Bush to seek national office.  I certainly don't see any of G. H. Bush's grandchildren running.

As for W., he said in the WSJ the other day once his book tour is over his time in the public will be over.  He wants to fade away just as his father has.  Seriously, has his father ever commented substantively on politics?  Clinton is the definite exception to ex-presidents.

As for my case in support of Jeb, it's more to do with Republicans.  I know Democrats generally loathe the name.
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Grumps
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« Reply #10 on: November 10, 2010, 02:37:36 pm »
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I would think again before being sure people will not hold his name against him. The whole dynasty effect would turn a lot of people off.

I completely agree......the name is toxic in my view, but if not, the dynasty issue will turn almost everyone off.
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« Reply #11 on: November 10, 2010, 02:43:55 pm »
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Even if GWB would increase in popularity, I think Gramps is right.  We're not a monarchy.
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Whacker77
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« Reply #12 on: November 10, 2010, 03:20:04 pm »
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Even if GWB would increase in popularity, I think Gramps is right.  We're not a monarchy.

Can you think of any other Republican who can win in 2012?  I know the old saying about presidential popularity being the ceiling for voting support, but how did that work out for Harry Reid?  Assuming any Republican wins because Obama will be unpopular doesn't hold water with me.

Mitt Romney - Can't connect with voters and failed in 2008
Tim Pawlenty - Possible, but a real snoozer
Sarah Palin  - Only if all Democrats and Independents die before 2012
Mike Huckabee - He's limited to the Bible belt
Rick Santorum - Is this guy that stupid?
John Bolten - Got milk?
Newt - Too divisive
Haley Barbour - Possible, but he's foghorn leghorn
John Thune - Possible, but tough to win the early primaries
Mitch Daniels - Needs a charisma injection, but possible
Bobby Jindal - Running in 2011 hurts any run in 2012
Chris Christie - Interesting, but has said it ain't happening in 2012
Jon Huntsman - Interesting, but too moderate for some

I know the knock against Jeb is his last name, but the others I mentioned have real problems.  Obama, from my perspective, looks to be in great shape because the field for Republicans is so awful.
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #13 on: November 10, 2010, 04:19:37 pm »
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I would think again before being sure people will not hold his name against him. The whole dynasty effect would turn a lot of people off.

I completely agree......the name is toxic in my view, but if not, the dynasty issue will turn almost everyone off.

The "dynasty" thing might be one of the biggest issues. Myself included, I'm sure that most people under the age of 35 don't really remember a Republican President whose last name wasn't Bush.

Either way, I think America is done with the Bushes for a while.
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Grumps
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« Reply #14 on: November 10, 2010, 04:37:57 pm »
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Even if GWB would increase in popularity, I think Gramps is right.  We're not a monarchy.

Can you think of any other Republican who can win in 2012?  I know the old saying about presidential popularity being the ceiling for voting support, but how did that work out for Harry Reid?  Assuming any Republican wins because Obama will be unpopular doesn't hold water with me.

Mitt Romney - Can't connect with voters and failed in 2008
Tim Pawlenty - Possible, but a real snoozer
Sarah Palin  - Only if all Democrats and Independents die before 2012
Mike Huckabee - He's limited to the Bible belt
Rick Santorum - Is this guy that stupid?
John Bolten - Got milk?
Newt - Too divisive
Haley Barbour - Possible, but he's foghorn leghorn
John Thune - Possible, but tough to win the early primaries
Mitch Daniels - Needs a charisma injection, but possible
Bobby Jindal - Running in 2011 hurts any run in 2012
Chris Christie - Interesting, but has said it ain't happening in 2012
Jon Huntsman - Interesting, but too moderate for some

I know the knock against Jeb is his last name, but the others I mentioned have real problems.  Obama, from my perspective, looks to be in great shape because the field for Republicans is so awful.

Whacker, with all due, they're not going to put up Jeb simply because the rest are putzes.
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Odysseus
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« Reply #15 on: November 10, 2010, 05:30:07 pm »
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Even if GWB would increase in popularity, I think Gramps is right.  We're not a monarchy.

Can you think of any other Republican who can win in 2012?  I know the old saying about presidential popularity being the ceiling for voting support, but how did that work out for Harry Reid?  Assuming any Republican wins because Obama will be unpopular doesn't hold water with me.

Mitt Romney - Can't connect with voters and failed in 2008
Tim Pawlenty - Possible, but a real snoozer
Sarah Palin  - Only if all Democrats and Independents die before 2012
Mike Huckabee - He's limited to the Bible belt
Rick Santorum - Is this guy that stupid?
John Bolten - Got milk?
Newt - Too divisive
Haley Barbour - Possible, but he's foghorn leghorn
John Thune - Possible, but tough to win the early primaries
Mitch Daniels - Needs a charisma injection, but possible
Bobby Jindal - Running in 2011 hurts any run in 2012
Chris Christie - Interesting, but has said it ain't happening in 2012
Jon Huntsman - Interesting, but too moderate for some

I know the knock against Jeb is his last name, but the others I mentioned have real problems.  Obama, from my perspective, looks to be in great shape because the field for Republicans is so awful.

 "Lost in 2008"

Reagan lost in 1976.

Bush lost in 1980.

Dole lost in 1988.

McCain lost in 2000.


The Republicans go by the turn rule, losing a previous primary is a prerequisite.
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #16 on: November 10, 2010, 05:36:55 pm »
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Please no more Bushs
if he is the nominee i would vote for The Obumbler
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Whacker77
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« Reply #17 on: November 10, 2010, 05:58:32 pm »
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Even if GWB would increase in popularity, I think Gramps is right.  We're not a monarchy.

Can you think of any other Republican who can win in 2012?  I know the old saying about presidential popularity being the ceiling for voting support, but how did that work out for Harry Reid?  Assuming any Republican wins because Obama will be unpopular doesn't hold water with me.

Mitt Romney - Can't connect with voters and failed in 2008
Tim Pawlenty - Possible, but a real snoozer
Sarah Palin  - Only if all Democrats and Independents die before 2012
Mike Huckabee - He's limited to the Bible belt
Rick Santorum - Is this guy that stupid?
John Bolten - Got milk?
Newt - Too divisive
Haley Barbour - Possible, but he's foghorn leghorn
John Thune - Possible, but tough to win the early primaries
Mitch Daniels - Needs a charisma injection, but possible
Bobby Jindal - Running in 2011 hurts any run in 2012
Chris Christie - Interesting, but has said it ain't happening in 2012
Jon Huntsman - Interesting, but too moderate for some

I know the knock against Jeb is his last name, but the others I mentioned have real problems.  Obama, from my perspective, looks to be in great shape because the field for Republicans is so awful.

 "Lost in 2008"

Reagan lost in 1976.

Bush lost in 1980.

Dole lost in 1988.

McCain lost in 2000.


The Republicans go by the turn rule, losing a previous primary is a prerequisite.

With all due respect, I think you made my point.

Reagan was a different issue because he took on a sitting president.  That's very different from taking on a crowded field of newbies.

Bush spent the next eight years as a VP for a successful president.  He had the record of the administration on which to fall back.

Mitt is just like Dole and McCain.  They just showed back up several years later to run the same campaign they ran last time.
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Smash255
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« Reply #18 on: November 10, 2010, 06:21:43 pm »
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Even if GWB would increase in popularity, I think Gramps is right.  We're not a monarchy.

Can you think of any other Republican who can win in 2012?  I know the old saying about presidential popularity being the ceiling for voting support, but how did that work out for Harry Reid?  Assuming any Republican wins because Obama will be unpopular doesn't hold water with me.

Mitt Romney - Can't connect with voters and failed in 2008
Tim Pawlenty - Possible, but a real snoozer
Sarah Palin  - Only if all Democrats and Independents die before 2012
Mike Huckabee - He's limited to the Bible belt
Rick Santorum - Is this guy that stupid?
John Bolten - Got milk?
Newt - Too divisive
Haley Barbour - Possible, but he's foghorn leghorn
John Thune - Possible, but tough to win the early primaries
Mitch Daniels - Needs a charisma injection, but possible
Bobby Jindal - Running in 2011 hurts any run in 2012
Chris Christie - Interesting, but has said it ain't happening in 2012
Jon Huntsman - Interesting, but too moderate for some

I know the knock against Jeb is his last name, but the others I mentioned have real problems.  Obama, from my perspective, looks to be in great shape because the field for Republicans is so awful.

 "Lost in 2008"

Reagan lost in 1976.

Bush lost in 1980.

Dole lost in 1988.

McCain lost in 2000.


The Republicans go by the turn rule, losing a previous primary is a prerequisite.

With all due respect, I think you made my point.

Reagan was a different issue because he took on a sitting president.  That's very different from taking on a crowded field of newbies.

Bush spent the next eight years as a VP for a successful president.  He had the record of the administration on which to fall back.

Mitt is just like Dole and McCain.  They just showed back up several years later to run the same campaign they ran last time.


What??  McCain ran MUCH MUCH further to the right in 2008 than he ran in 2000.
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Whacker77
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« Reply #19 on: November 10, 2010, 10:59:37 pm »
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McCain's campaign was little changed from 2000 in that it was a piece of crap.
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #20 on: November 11, 2010, 07:48:32 am »
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Even if GWB would increase in popularity, I think Gramps is right.  We're not a monarchy.

Can you think of any other Republican who can win in 2012?  I know the old saying about presidential popularity being the ceiling for voting support, but how did that work out for Harry Reid?  Assuming any Republican wins because Obama will be unpopular doesn't hold water with me.

Mitt Romney - Can't connect with voters and failed in 2008
Tim Pawlenty - Possible, but a real snoozer
Sarah Palin  - Only if all Democrats and Independents die before 2012
Mike Huckabee - He's limited to the Bible belt
Rick Santorum - Is this guy that stupid?
John Bolten - Got milk?
Newt - Too divisive
Haley Barbour - Possible, but he's foghorn leghorn
John Thune - Possible, but tough to win the early primaries
Mitch Daniels - Needs a charisma injection, but possible
Bobby Jindal - Running in 2011 hurts any run in 2012
Chris Christie - Interesting, but has said it ain't happening in 2012
Jon Huntsman - Interesting, but too moderate for some

I know the knock against Jeb is his last name, but the others I mentioned have real problems.  Obama, from my perspective, looks to be in great shape because the field for Republicans is so awful.

 "Lost in 2008"

Reagan lost in 1976.

Bush lost in 1980.

Dole lost in 1988.

McCain lost in 2000.


The Republicans go by the turn rule, losing a previous primary is a prerequisite.

With all due respect, I think you made my point.

Reagan was a different issue because he took on a sitting president.  That's very different from taking on a crowded field of newbies.

Reagan also had an unsuccessful run in 1968.
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Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #21 on: November 11, 2010, 05:56:14 pm »
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Even if GWB would increase in popularity, I think Gramps is right.  We're not a monarchy.

Can you think of any other Republican who can win in 2012?  I know the old saying about presidential popularity being the ceiling for voting support, but how did that work out for Harry Reid?  Assuming any Republican wins because Obama will be unpopular doesn't hold water with me.

Mitt Romney - Can't connect with voters and failed in 2008
Tim Pawlenty - Possible, but a real snoozer
Sarah Palin  - Only if all Democrats and Independents die before 2012
Mike Huckabee - He's limited to the Bible belt
Rick Santorum - Is this guy that stupid?
John Bolten - Got milk?
Newt - Too divisive
Haley Barbour - Possible, but he's foghorn leghorn
John Thune - Possible, but tough to win the early primaries
Mitch Daniels - Needs a charisma injection, but possible
Bobby Jindal - Running in 2011 hurts any run in 2012
Chris Christie - Interesting, but has said it ain't happening in 2012
Jon Huntsman - Interesting, but too moderate for some

I know the knock against Jeb is his last name, but the others I mentioned have real problems.  Obama, from my perspective, looks to be in great shape because the field for Republicans is so awful.

Let me introduce you to Iowa. Tongue
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« Reply #22 on: December 01, 2010, 08:01:20 am »
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Even if GWB would increase in popularity, I think Gramps is right.  We're not a monarchy.

Can you think of any other Republican who can win in 2012?  I know the old saying about presidential popularity being the ceiling for voting support, but how did that work out for Harry Reid?  Assuming any Republican wins because Obama will be unpopular doesn't hold water with me.

Mitt Romney - Can't connect with voters and failed in 2008
Tim Pawlenty - Possible, but a real snoozer
Sarah Palin  - Only if all Democrats and Independents die before 2012
Mike Huckabee - He's limited to the Bible belt
Rick Santorum - Is this guy that stupid?
John Bolten - Got milk?
Newt - Too divisive
Haley Barbour - Possible, but he's foghorn leghorn
John Thune - Possible, but tough to win the early primaries
Mitch Daniels - Needs a charisma injection, but possible
Bobby Jindal - Running in 2011 hurts any run in 2012
Chris Christie - Interesting, but has said it ain't happening in 2012
Jon Huntsman - Interesting, but too moderate for some

I know the knock against Jeb is his last name, but the others I mentioned have real problems.  Obama, from my perspective, looks to be in great shape because the field for Republicans is so awful.

 "Lost in 2008"

Reagan lost in 1976.

Bush lost in 1980.

Dole lost in 1988.

McCain lost in 2000.


The Republicans go by the turn rule, losing a previous primary is a prerequisite.

heheheheh
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Whacker77
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« Reply #23 on: December 01, 2010, 11:11:43 am »
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Reagan, Bush, and Dole were all well respected by Republican primary voters.  McCain, on the other hand, won by sucking the least.  Romney's problem is that a good section of the conservative base doesn't like him or believe him.  Otherwise, he would have been the nominee in 2008. 

Personally, I think Romney is the only guy in the projected field who can stop Palin.  That's due to his money, but he would need a large field to spread out the vote.  If Huckabee doesn't run, most of his support goes to Palin.  How in the world do Newt and Romney compete with her then?  Sarah has all of the grassroots energy.

Jeb Bush only runs as a "white knight" choice.  In other words, late next summer or early fall it becomes apparent that no one in the projected field can stop Palin and the party decides they must field someone who can compete with her.  That's where Jeb comes in to the fray.

I just can't see the tradionalist Republican party allowing Palin to march uncontested to the nomination without a real fight.  That's the main reason I keep coming back to this argument.  Some of the conservative commentators with whom I trade emails feel the same way.  Palin is the prohibative favorite.
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Grumps
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« Reply #24 on: December 01, 2010, 11:14:17 am »
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Reagan, Bush, and Dole were all well respected by Republican primary voters.  McCain, on the other hand, won by sucking the least.  Romney's problem is that a good section of the conservative base doesn't like him or believe him.  Otherwise, he would have been the nominee in 2008. 

Personally, I think Romney is the only guy in the projected field who can stop Palin.  That's due to his money, but he would need a large field to spread out the vote.  If Huckabee doesn't run, most of his support goes to Palin.  How in the world do Newt and Romney compete with her then?  Sarah has all of the grassroots energy.

Jeb Bush only runs as a "white knight" choice.  In other words, late next summer or early fall it becomes apparent that no one in the projected field can stop Palin and the party decides they must field someone who can compete with her.  That's where Jeb comes in to the fray.

I just can't see the tradionalist Republican party allowing Palin to march uncontested to the nomination without a real fight.  That's the main reason I keep coming back to this argument.  Some of the conservative commentators with whom I trade emails feel the same way.  Palin is the prohibative favorite.

Jeb basically said this morning on Morning Joe he's not running......
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