PPP: Palin leads ME, TX, WV, WI; Romney leads FL; Pawlenty leads MN

[Mr. Morden]

link:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_FLMEMNTXWVWI_1111.pdf

FL
Romney 28
Palin 22
Gingrich 15
Huckabee 15
Pawlenty 4
everyone else at 2 or less

ME
Palin 23
Romney 18
Huckabee 16
Gingrich 14
Pawlenty 3
everyone else at 2 or less

MN
Pawlenty 19
Palin 18
Huckabee 14
Gingrich 11
Romney 11
Daniels 3
Pence 3
Thune 2

TX
Palin 22
Huckabee 20
Gingrich 15
Romney 15
Pawlenty 3
Pence 3
everyone else at 2 or less

WV
Palin 25
Huckabee 22
Gingrich 15
Romney 15
everyone else at 2 or less

WI
Palin 18
Huckabee 15
Gingrich 14
Romney 12
Pawlenty 8
everyone else at 2 or less

[Mr. Morden]

General election matchups:

FL
generic Republican 54
Obama 40

ME
generic Republican 50
Obama 44

MN
generic Republican 47
Obama 45

TX
generic Republican 59
Obama 35

WV
generic Republican 56
Obama 34

WI
generic Republican 51
Obama 42

[Jbrase]

put with the results of their last polls.



Red- Giant Douche; Blue - Huck, Pink - Palin; Green - T-Paw

[xavier110]

She's only gonna go up.

[Gravis Marketing]

link:

ME
Palin 23
Romney 18

LOL. Maine is a state where being from Massachusetts and New Hampshire definitely does NOT make you a local favorite.

[Dgov]

Some of those numbers are HORRIBLE for Obama.  Being down 14 in Florida (in an electorate that voted for McCain by 1 point, so it's not a significant turnout gap) is not a good sign for Obama, as is being up by only about 16 points with Moderates (which he needs to win by about 30 generally).  Being down 2 points against a Generic Republican among TEXAS HISPANICS can't be a big confidence booster moving forward.

Also interesting--FL Hispanics Self-identify ("Primary party") as Democrats 48-30 but favor a generic Republican over Obama 57-36.

*Standard disclaimer about polling subgroup sizes
*Standard Disclaimer about generic Republican polls

[Poundingtherock]

Looks like I was off by one state in my prediction as I thought she would finish ahead of Pawlenty in Minnesota but they were separated by one point.

However, I think she'd gladly trade Romney maine for florida.  But Romney led her by around 35 points in the first florida poll.

Romney seems to be treading water and if you read PPP's analysis, his candidacy seems ready to implode if either Pawlenty/Thune/Daniels get hot or if Huckabee doesn't run.

[VP Duke]

Generic Republican is going to clean house in 2 years.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Pawlenty fail in MN.

[A-Bob]

Generic Republican is going to clean house in 2 years.

I hope he runs

[LINCOLN REPUBLICAN]

Does anyone doubt that if Palin is the nominee in 2012 that the Democrats would not hesitate to systematically tear her apart using her own words? 

I mean come on, she never even served a full term as Governor of one of the smallest population states.

Do you honestly believe the American electorate would turn the leadership of the free world and the nations' national security over to that airhead?

[Smash255]

Does anyone doubt that if Palin is the nominee in 2012 that the Democrats would not hesitate to systematically tear her apart using her own words? 

I mean come on, she never even served a full term as Governor of one of the smallest population states.

Do you honestly believe the American electorate would turn the leadership of the free world and the nations' national security over to that airhead?

Republican voters?  You betcha.....

The rest of the country?   Hell no. 

[Umengus]

Stupid polls.

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

I know a lot of Democrats are rooting for her in the belief she's the easiest to beat but that's a bit of a dangerous game.  Obama's approval as it now stands leaves Huckabee and Romney competitive and Palin less so, but if it drops in 2 years, she could be competitive too.  I think Obama polled the weakest head-to-head vs McCain among himself, Clinton and Edwards but as the summer went on the more clear it became that any Democrat was going to win.  Similarly, Palin could find a path to the presidency, even if she's weaker head-to-head than those others.

Conversely, if Obama's approvals tick up comfortably over 50 and he beats everyone head-to-head, Republican voters might want a statement nominee, moderates enthusiasm may drop and the establishment could even be content to sacrifice Palin in a sure loss general.

These polls are a bit of turning point for her.  I honestly thought she'd be damaged after the midterms.  She's tied to a couple losers, Rove and the establishment have been taking swipes at her etc.  I did think it would deflate her yet PPP comes out of the midterms with good marks and this is the first batch of polls I recall with so many Palin leads and Romney flagging like that.  I'm curious where those Huckabee voters break if he declines to run.  Are they social cons that just prefer him to her but would take her if he's out?  Stop Palin voters who just like him the best of the non-Palins and will drift to someone else, even Romney?  If he endorsed Pawlenty or Daniels before Iowa would they take his recommendation?

I also think the more polls like this- obviously- the more likely she is to run.  And if she does, I think it makes the road massively harder for people like Thune who would depend on the force of a vacuum that would be less likely to be there with her running.

[Whacker77]

I'm a conservative in every sense of the word and Palin scares me to death.  Fairly or unfairly, she has become a caricature of herself.  There is nothing she can do to turn that view around.  She is just too polarizing, even among many Republicans.

Right now, these poll numbers are more about popularity than anything else.  As the race comes into focus for primary voters, she will drop because there is no "there" there with her.  She just offers canned conservative phrases.

If I were Romney, I would be devastated by these numbers.  His message didn't sell two years ago and it appears he has been forgotten.  It's not as if he's been a shrinking violet either.  I still think he's the favorite, but I would be worried about wasting more of my fortune if I were him.

What these numbers do tell me are two things.  First, Obama will be very beatable in 2012.  That doesn't mean he will lose, but it's certainly possible.  Second, there is no clear choice for Republicans in a field of also-rans.  In my view, this makes a Jeb Bush run that much more possible as he could swoop in and become the consensus candidate in short order.

[Insula Dei]

The Maine republican party is a joke. If I were Olympia Snowe I'd pull a Specter.

[Skill and Chance]

The Maine republican party is a joke. If I were Olympia Snowe I'd pull a Specter.

Palin leading in the ME primary has to be terrifying news for her, especially after LePage's gubernatorial victory.  I think she would be more likely to go Indy than Dem if she does switch.  ME likes their independents.

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

I'm a conservative in every sense of the word and Palin scares me to death.  Fairly or unfairly, she has become a caricature of herself.  There is nothing she can do to turn that view around.  She is just too polarizing, even among many Republicans.

Right now, these poll numbers are more about popularity than anything else.  As the race comes into focus for primary voters, she will drop because there is no "there" there with her.  She just offers canned conservative phrases.

If I were Romney, I would be devastated by these numbers.  His message didn't sell two years ago and it appears he has been forgotten.  It's not as if he's been a shrinking violet either.  I still think he's the favorite, but I would be worried about wasting more of my fortune if I were him.

What these numbers do tell me are two things.  First, Obama will be very beatable in 2012.  That doesn't mean he will lose, but it's certainly possible.  Second, there is no clear choice for Republicans in a field of also-rans.  In my view, this makes a Jeb Bush run that much more possible as he could swoop in and become the consensus candidate in short order.

Nah.  What's the basis for thinking this is just favorability?  Presumably, if someone being polled liked Palin but didn't want her for president, they'd be go with another of the many choices they were read.  And it's not as if Palin is unknown.  She's very well known so people understand full well who she is.  They know what is there.  And she is winning in a bunch of states.  Maybe it should be your party that scares you and not just Palin.

[There Are Some Remedies Worse Than The Disease]

I try not to put too much stock in these polls after Hillary's numbers and hearing about how inevitable she was. As much as I hope for Palin.

It's just a good thing "generic Republican" will not be nominated.

And oh yeah, Pawlenty epic fail LOL.

[ilikeverin]

Lawlenty.