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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Tennessee  (Read 12225 times)
Sam Spade
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« Reply #100 on: January 05, 2012, 01:41:58 pm »
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Tennessee has nothing to do with Washington or Arizona or California.  It has to do with many of the same factors that were in play in North Carolina.
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« Reply #101 on: January 05, 2012, 01:56:59 pm »
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I'm reading on Twitter that the 7-2 map might be preserved, but we will have to see what happens.
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« Reply #102 on: January 05, 2012, 02:30:40 pm »
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I'm reading on Twitter that the 7-2 map might be preserved, but we will have to see what happens.

If that is the case, I wonder if they give Cooper a "Blue Dog" R+2 seat so they can pick it up when he retires.  Alternatively, if they are concerned about the growth of blue Nashville, they could vote-sink Cooper into a 60%+ Obama seat...
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« Reply #103 on: January 05, 2012, 02:36:24 pm »
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http://www.nashvillescene.com/pitw/archives/2012/01/05/democrats-threaten-lawsuit-over-redistricting-theyre-trying-to-go-to-a-one-party-state



Turner said Republicans did their worst with their map, handing their party “eight or nine potential pickups” in this year’s elections. That would give Republicans as many as 73 of the 99 seats in the House, turning that chamber into a Tennessee version of the Politburo. Before the map was made public, Turner seemed to be tempering his remarks to the media, but he apparently has decided there’s no longer any point in playing nice.



Heh. Vengeance is certainly having the day. Not too long ago the GOP only had 40 seats.
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edtorres04
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« Reply #104 on: January 05, 2012, 03:08:35 pm »
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Torie,

Washington was a very fair map.  The new WA 1 is a dem leaning tossup with a PVI of D +1.5.  Arizona is a Dem Gerrymander.  I'm not familiar with the legality as you are, but from a partisan standpoint, that map is a pure dem gerrymander.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #105 on: January 05, 2012, 05:26:38 pm »
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I'm reading on Twitter that the 7-2 map might be preserved, but we will have to see what happens.

If that is the case, I wonder if they give Cooper a "Blue Dog" R+2 seat so they can pick it up when he retires.  Alternatively, if they are concerned about the growth of blue Nashville, they could vote-sink Cooper into a 60%+ Obama seat...

If you give him everything blue or 50/50 in Davidson and draw the district down to Murfreesboro, you get a 61% Obama seat.  If they don't give him an R+8, I'll bet this is what they do.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #106 on: January 05, 2012, 10:32:43 pm »
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I'm reading on Twitter that the 7-2 map might be preserved, but we will have to see what happens.

If that is the case, I wonder if they give Cooper a "Blue Dog" R+2 seat so they can pick it up when he retires.  Alternatively, if they are concerned about the growth of blue Nashville, they could vote-sink Cooper into a 60%+ Obama seat...

this is the south. You need to get up to R+6/R+7 for a republican to win. There aren't many Sherwood Boehlerts in this neck of the woods.
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« Reply #107 on: January 06, 2012, 05:39:33 am »
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Washington is the maximum Republicans could theoretically get. Arizona actually is not the maximum Democrats could theoretically get. Both maps include some parts that are actually quite sensible, some parts that make no sense outside of partisan gerrymandering, and some parts that make no sense whatsoever.
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« Reply #108 on: January 06, 2012, 01:07:13 pm »
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Cooper asks for the Republican parts of Davidson back.

http://wpln.org/?p=32652

And the repost from the Pub legislator was that keeping Davidson whole was not high on the Dem's agenda with their little gerry a decade ago, when Pub areas of Davidson were removed, and she appreciates their little epiphany towards a good government map now that they are the ones left out in the cold. No, the Pubs are going to gut Cooper it seems. Why wouldn't they? AZ must be avenged!  Tongue

WA was revenge for AZ wasn't it?

You think WA was as egregious as that lawless (yes lawless) thing that McNulty drew in AZ with Mathis in her pocket? Really?

Yes, it is. Have you taken a look at the 2nd district in Washington? It makes no sense other than to help Republicans win another seat. It's still a swing district, but so is that Dem leaning swing district wrongfully drawn in the Phoenix area. On the other hand the Tuscon district is perfectly fine. Taking it for a ride into Cochise is a Republican gerrymander, and I frankly don't care if it was drawn like that on the silly grid map. Who draws that anyways? So basically we have a ridiculous gerrymandered Democratic district in Phoenix and one gerrymandered for the Republicans in Washington. About the same amount of ridiculousness I think. I wish neither existed but that's life.

And of course Sam is right. Tennessee doesn't have anything to do with either Washington or Arizona. This is all about getting revenge for what the democrats did to them in years past.
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« Reply #109 on: January 06, 2012, 01:41:34 pm »
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Washington is the maximum Republicans could theoretically get.

That is a statement of profound ignorance. For instance, Slade Gordon's proposal was five Republican, four Democratic, and one swing seat.
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« Reply #110 on: January 06, 2012, 01:57:07 pm »
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Washington is the maximum Republicans could theoretically get.

That is a statement of profound ignorance. For instance, Slade Gordon's proposal was five Republican, four Democratic, and one swing seat.

Okay, and the best Democrats could possibly do (think MD or IL) is 8 Democratic, one swing seat, and one Republican.  A fair map produced by negotiation between the two parties should fall roughly in the middle of the partisan extremes.  We ended up with 5D-4R-1S, which is an awful lot closer to 4D-5R-1S than 8D-1R-1S. Therefore, Republicans got a better deal here, just like Democrats got a better deal in AZ.
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BigSkyBob
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« Reply #111 on: January 06, 2012, 02:09:36 pm »
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Washington is the maximum Republicans could theoretically get.

That is a statement of profound ignorance. For instance, Slade Gordon's proposal was five Republican, four Democratic, and one swing seat.

Okay, and the best Democrats could possibly do (think MD or IL) is 8 Democratic, one swing seat, and one Republican.  A fair map produced by negotiation between the two parties should fall roughly in the middle of the partisan extremes.  We ended up with 5D-4R-1S, which is an awful lot closer to 4D-5R-1S than 8D-1R-1S. Therefore, Republicans got a better deal here, just like Democrats got a better deal in AZ.

No, if the best the Democrats can do is 8-1-1, then, the best the Republicans can do is three districts strongly favoring the Democrats, and seven Republican leaning ones. The constraints of the system don't allow for either map to be a realistic possibility.

Likewise, in Arizona, a 6-3 map in favor of the Democrats, with two Hispanic seats, respecting county lines,  being compact, etc., etc., is not possible.
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« Reply #112 on: January 06, 2012, 02:44:32 pm »
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http://www.capitol.tn.gov/senate/redist/Tennessee%20Cong%20Map.pdf

Jim Cooper is just fine. 58% Obama district.
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« Reply #113 on: January 06, 2012, 02:54:14 pm »
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Huh, the Republicans really went easy on Cooper. I don't know how good of an idea it would have been to create a real Republican district for him, due to what it would do to the surrounding districts, but they could have created a more Republican district for him while keeping everyone safe. I guess they really want to protect their gains from 2010. Wise move, even if the 5th could have been made more Republican.
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« Reply #114 on: January 06, 2012, 02:54:50 pm »
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What's the likelihood of a primary challenge to Fincher from the Memphis burbs?
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Miles
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« Reply #115 on: January 06, 2012, 03:09:43 pm »
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So they did move Rutherford into the 4th...DesJarlias could very well have a strong primary challenge.
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Miles
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« Reply #116 on: January 06, 2012, 03:18:09 pm »
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Numbers from DKE:

CD1: 29% Obama/ 35% D
CD2: 35% Obama/ 42% D
CD3: 33% Obama/ 41% D
CD4: 36.5% Obama/ 43% D
CD5: 58% Obama/60% D
CD6: 34% Obama/42% D
CD7: 37% Obama/ 43% D
CD8: 36% Obama/ 42% D
CD9: 76% Obama/ 70% D/ 61% black VAP
« Last Edit: January 06, 2012, 03:25:22 pm by MilesC56 »Logged


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« Reply #117 on: January 06, 2012, 03:20:14 pm »
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Woah.

It's redistmas!
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« Reply #118 on: January 06, 2012, 03:37:24 pm »
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Huh, the Republicans really went easy on Cooper. I don't know how good of an idea it would have been to create a real Republican district for him, due to what it would do to the surrounding districts, but they could have created a more Republican district for him while keeping everyone safe. I guess they really want to protect their gains from 2010. Wise move, even if the 5th could have been made more Republican.

Yes, very cautious indeed. What the Pubs did was make sure that no rural Middle Tennessee reversion to its Jacksonian Dem voting habits would threaten any of their incumbents, because everyone gets a suburban county or two as a Pub anchor. The GOP incumbents clearly just want to dial it in. This map was not part of a "national" strategy.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #119 on: January 06, 2012, 04:05:45 pm »
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What a shame.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #120 on: January 06, 2012, 04:06:58 pm »
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What the Pubs did was make sure that no rural Middle Tennessee reversion to its Jacksonian Dem voting habits would threaten any of their incumbents, because everyone gets a suburban county or two as a Pub anchor. 
Yeah, I got that impression as well. And get Blackburn out of Memphis. Fincher's probably not too happy.
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« Reply #121 on: January 06, 2012, 04:26:11 pm »
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What the Pubs did was make sure that no rural Middle Tennessee reversion to its Jacksonian Dem voting habits would threaten any of their incumbents, because everyone gets a suburban county or two as a Pub anchor. 
Yeah, I got that impression as well. And get Blackburn out of Memphis. Fincher's probably not too happy.

Well, the first thing a party must do while redistricting is protect their incumbents. This map does a perfect job of that, although Fincher won't be happy, but Memphis Republicans will be. This is not like Ohio or Pennsylvania where Republicans had to heavily gerrymander just to save their incumbents. Trying to go after Cooper would have weakened one or more districts and the other incumbents must not have been interested in that.
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Miles
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« Reply #122 on: January 06, 2012, 04:35:58 pm »
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What the Pubs did was make sure that no rural Middle Tennessee reversion to its Jacksonian Dem voting habits would threaten any of their incumbents, because everyone gets a suburban county or two as a Pub anchor. 
Yeah, I got that impression as well. And get Blackburn out of Memphis. Fincher's probably not too happy.

Well, the first thing a party must do while redistricting is protect their incumbents. This map does a perfect job of that, although Fincher won't be happy, but Memphis Republicans will be.

Not really. They screwed DesJarlias. He'll probably have a primary with state Sen. Bill Ketron.
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« Reply #123 on: January 06, 2012, 04:55:10 pm »
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Who wants to explain what happened in TN-2, TN-3, and TN-4?
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Miles
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« Reply #124 on: January 06, 2012, 07:22:35 pm »
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I did some more numbers for CDs 4 and 6. Ford didn't run much above the D average; at least in those districts.

Corker won the new 6th 53-45 and the 4th 55-44.

Corker also won the non-Shelby parts of the 8th by 52-47...so, probably about 53-45 districtwide.
« Last Edit: January 06, 2012, 07:43:50 pm by MilesC56 »Logged


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