US House Redistricting: Tennessee

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Only halfheartedly gunning for Cooper.

http://wpln.org/?p=28881

Tennessee Republicans are talking about a push to unseat Nashville Democrat Jim Cooper next year. The GOP has made big gains in recent elections, and is eyeing what it might add after redrawing the state’s Congressional districts.

State GOP Chairman Chris Devaney says priority one for the party is holding its ground. After that, depending on how redistricting plays out, Cooper’s seat could become a target. Devaney thinks Cooper’s feeling vulnerable, because the longtime incumbent campaigned hard for reelection last fall.

[krazen1211]

Cooper is upset about the RRH plan to crack Nashville in 3.

http://www.tennessean.com/article/20110829/NEWS02/308290043/Nashville-district-could-divided-three-ways-say-Cooper-Dean

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Here's the map, sbane.

http://www.redracinghorses.com/diary/993/tennessee-considers-ketronmander

I don't know if its a reality, and frankly, I'm not a huge fan of 8-1, but regardless its cool to see people's work reflected. Torie of course had that WSJ article.

[krazen1211]

It's also not clear that 54.6% McCain will do the trick of removing Cooper. Having two districts like that, then, runs the risk (not a large risk by any means, but it's there) of losing both districts. They won't want to take that.

The other reason why it takes so long is of course that Memphis Republicans really want to have their own district (or rather congressperson) - Blackburn has had primary challenges based on the issue.
Which also means that neither Fincher nor Blackburn are going to be overjoyed with taking all of the Republican parts of Shelby.

This gets you 57% McCain at the minimum (and 54% generic GOP) in all districts besides the 9th. Didn't pay huge attention to residences.

The other issue with suburban Memphis is that they probably want to keep heavy GOP donor areas out of the black district. A decade ago its likely inconceivable that the 9th would snake like this, but the area lost too much population.




Yellow district is Cooper's and combined with East Shelby with Nashville blacks.
Grey district is for Marsha Blackburn and contains almost all of Williamson County. Safer for a primary.
Teal district is for Diane Black and drops a bunch of rural counties.



This moves both Fincher and Blackburn away from the Memphis area and gives Memphis Republicans their own district.

[krazen1211]

Heh, clever.
Of course, one issue may be that trends in such a Cooper district are not too friendly for the GOP, so the window of opportunity of getting a Republican in there may be short. But yeah, I could see them come up with that.

I would think actually that the slate green district for Black is the weakest of the 3. East Shelby never ever votes for Democrats, and deep inner city areas typically don't have much population growth. The district is actually 20% black due to it taking the most black areas of Nashville.

[krazen1211]

deep inner city areas typically don't have much population growth

but neither do these rural counties, and inner suburbs can go Dem (and, in Memphis, go Black) hard. The district doesn't seem to have that much of hard R outer suburbia.

Well, it has about 325k population in Shelby (voted 69% McCain, 67% R), and 200k in Davidson (69% Obama, 69% D). It actually includes almost the entirety of hard R memphis metro areas (Lakeland, Germantown, Bartlett, etc, the 80% McCain areas). And of course Walnut Grove (70% McCain) in Memphis itself just east of the University. All the blacks in Shelby live immediately to the west; its a very racially split area it seems.

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Cooper asks for the Republican parts of Davidson back.

http://wpln.org/?p=32652

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http://www.nashvillescene.com/pitw/archives/2012/01/05/democrats-threaten-lawsuit-over-redistricting-theyre-trying-to-go-to-a-one-party-state



Turner said Republicans did their worst with their map, handing their party “eight or nine potential pickups” in this year’s elections. That would give Republicans as many as 73 of the 99 seats in the House, turning that chamber into a Tennessee version of the Politburo. Before the map was made public, Turner seemed to be tempering his remarks to the media, but he apparently has decided there’s no longer any point in playing nice.



Heh. Vengeance is certainly having the day. Not too long ago the GOP only had 40 seats.

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What a shame.

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I don't think this is a great map, but I am relieved that Cooper is safe. 6th and 8th are moved out of reach, but may have been already (esp. 6th).

Tanner would I think have won the 8th due to the Memphis blacks being cracked in two. 2000 and 2004 results show this district to have about an even PVI.

[krazen1211]

I don't think this is a great map, but I am relieved that Cooper is safe. 6th and 8th are moved out of reach, but may have been already (esp. 6th).

Tanner would I think have won the 8th due to the Memphis blacks being cracked in two. 2000 and 2004 results show this district to have about an even PVI.

They're not. The old TN-8 has about 30,000 Memphis blacks. TN-9 has about about 350,000. And Tanner never had a competitive race. Even in 1994.

That would precisely constitute 2 pieces. It is quite telling that the Democrats 10 years ago chose to split Memphis like so while pushing the existing TN-9 into the suburbs.

Fincher certainly would not be interested in campaigning in that 89% Obama territory.

[krazen1211]

I don't think this is a great map, but I am relieved that Cooper is safe. 6th and 8th are moved out of reach, but may have been already (esp. 6th).

Tanner would I think have won the 8th due to the Memphis blacks being cracked in two. 2000 and 2004 results show this district to have about an even PVI.

They're not. The old TN-8 has about 30,000 Memphis blacks. TN-9 has about about 350,000. And Tanner never had a competitive race. Even in 1994.

That would precisely constitute 2 pieces. It is quite telling that the Democrats 10 years ago chose to split Memphis like so while pushing the existing TN-9 into the suburbs.

Fincher certainly would not be interested in campaigning in that 89% Obama territory.

The SE suburbs of the old TN-9 are the black flight suburbs. It's our version of Clayton, GA or Prince William, MD. And as one would expect, they're uber Democratic. If you want to read a 350,000 to 30,000 split as a "crack", that's your excessive hyperbole. Pardon the Dems for creating a logical district instead of packing as many blacks in as possible. If you want to talk about who represents whom, at the moment, Marsha almost certainly has more Shelby blacks than Fincher, but whatever. You're not interested in facts. You're interested in creating a paranoid narrative.

What is the logic in excluding 1 heavily Democratic area inside a city for 1 heavily Democratic area outside a city?

And while you are at it, what is the logic in splitting Davidson County and connecting a section with Germantown, and, as you put it, putting Shelby blacks in a Williamson County district?