What is considered a 'Safe' popular vote win?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I would be shocked if a candidate won the popular vote by more than 2.0% but lost the electoral college.  

The only realistic way this could happen is if Kerry somehow wins Florida AND Ohio while losing the huge in the rest of the South.    Then Kerry would win the EC (despite losing states like NM, WI, OR, WI), while losing the PV.

I don't see how Bush could win the EC while losing the PV by more than 2%.  If Kerry won the PV by this margin, he would definitely take FL -or- OH while keeping almost every Gore state.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

In the late 19th century, it was much more possible for the GOP to win in the EC despite losing big in the PV, because many Southern states went like 90% Democratic.  Even the most partisan states today are like 65-35.