Not a 100% sure, but probably. If there are big swings in strongholds and moderate swings the other way in tossups it could happen, but I don't really see that happening.
Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico, and Minnesota could come down to as few as 500,000 votes total margin. That's 115 EV. A .5% PV swing can effect 21% of the EV. That's probably a bit of a dramatic example, but I think either candidate needs a 3% PV lead to be secure.
Still, I think at this point, national poll numbers are much more useful than state numbers to determine who's "leading." If either candidate is leading all national polls outside of the MoE, he is a pretty good bet to win the EV.
