What is considered a 'Safe' popular vote win?

[Gustaf]

It's a moot point since a lead of 1% in a poll would be within the margin of error. An actual win by 1% would be pretty safe I think, but there's no way for us to tell on beforehand if it's that close.

[Gustaf]

It's a moot point since a lead of 1% in a poll would be within the margin of error. An actual win by 1% would be pretty safe I think, but there's no way for us to tell on beforehand if it's that close.

Yeah, any PV margin over 1% probably creates an electoral lock in modern America.

Not a 100% sure, but probably. If there are big swings in strongholds and moderate swings the other way in tossups it could happen, but I don't really see that happening.

[Gustaf]

That's Bill Schneider's take on it.  Greenfield says it's probably more like 2%.  So does Michael Beschloss.  Of course it's mathematically possible to win 70% of the PV and still lose.  But unlikely.

It's 83%.

[Gustaf]

I might argue the point on Zogby...

There are several much better polling firms...

Regarding a "safe" margin...

In 2000, if Gore had 1% more popular vote in every state (and Bush 1% less) the electoral college would have been. 296/242 for Gore.

A shift of 1.0% for Bush would have made it 327/211 for Bush

A shift of 3% for Gore would have made it also 327/211 - except this time for Gore

A shift of 3% towards Bush would have made it 366/172 for Bush


a gap of 3% or more it is almost inconcievable that the EV and popular vote would  not agree

Didn't Zogby come closet in the past 2 presidential elections?  I visited his site during the Dem primaries and he basically seemed to nail those too, with a few exceptions.  Which firms would you consider better?

So going by what you say, a Gore PV win of 1.5% would have given him a 296-242 win in the EV?  It would seem to me, just based on intuition, that it would be extremely unlikely for someone to win the PV by over 2% yet lose the EV.  From 1-2%, I think with the right combination of states, it is possible but not probable.  Under 1% it's quite probable.

I have a feeling that in both the EV and PV this election isn't going to be as close as 2000.  The problem is I'm just not sure who's going to be ahead.  

Bush, in that case, Kerry won't win big, I'm fairly sure of that.

[Gustaf]

That's Bill Schneider's take on it.  Greenfield says it's probably more like 2%.  So does Michael Beschloss.  Of course it's mathematically possible to win 70% of the PV and still lose.  But unlikely.

It's 83%.

Mathematickky you can win with 11 votes (1-0 in  the big 11 states ) and millions against you un all other states - 99.999%

Yes, but that's altering the number of voters. My example is based on turnout being the same which makes more sense.

[Gustaf]

That's Bill Schneider's take on it.  Greenfield says it's probably more like 2%.  So does Michael Beschloss.  Of course it's mathematically possible to win 70% of the PV and still lose.  But unlikely.

It's 83%.

Mathematickky you can win with 11 votes (1-0 in  the big 11 states ) and millions against you un all other states - 99.999%

Yes, but that's altering the number of voters. My example is based on turnout being the same which makes more sense.

Actually, turnout DOES vary a lot from state to state.

In 2000 Gore won New York by about 1.7 million votes, while Bush won Texas by about 1.3? million or so - making up most of Gore's margin in the PV, even though NY and Texas are about the same size (bush won texas by 21, Gore NY by 25)

Why the huge difference..?  In 2000 there was a very hot senate race in NY (Clinton vs Lazio) while the Texas race was a yawner..

Here is a scenario..  On election day the Eastern seaboard gets clobbered by a huge snowstorm while the South has a real nice day...

I bet that would skew the popular vote at least a few %...

Lol, I am basing it on the turnout in 2000, so OK, I phrased it badly.