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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Minnesota  (Read 17238 times)
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« Reply #225 on: February 21, 2012, 03:05:27 pm »
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So the followed my recommendation and extended 3 westward into Carver County, and moved the northern tip of Dakota into 2, clearly establishing 2 and 6 as northern and southern metro districts.

I think I would have put more of Rice in 2, and Wabasha and Goodhue in 2, but that is a minor quibble.  A quite excellent plan.
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It also prepares for 2020 when 3, 5, 4 get merged into two districts, 2 and 6 take up the leftovers beginning with Washington, Anoka, and Carver, and parts of Ramsey and Hennepin as needed (eg St.Paul and Minneapolis in one district, and Hennepin in the other).

No, I don't really think it'll go like that...
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« Reply #226 on: February 21, 2012, 03:21:59 pm »
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Kline losing? Keep dreaming. There's a reason they put those South St Paul suburbs they removed from the fourth (a fact they glossed over in their order, btw) here and not in the 3rd, as the Dem proposal did. Because they would have made a difference there.
It's a 4-4 map, but with Peterson having proven he can hold a (marginally) false-party district seemingly forever, and Cravaack not having proven anything of the kind yet. And thus arguably a 5-3 map.
And one R incumbent has a problem, but that just opens opportunities for other Republicans.

It is 50.5% Obama district now. You're probably right that Kline won't lose, but if he retires this district could be interesting. 
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« Reply #227 on: February 21, 2012, 04:15:20 pm »
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After 2012 if the Dems regain the state legislature could they pass their own plan?
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« Reply #228 on: February 21, 2012, 04:19:26 pm »
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I'd love to see some polling in the new 8th. Republican representation of the Iron Range viscerally upsets me way more than it should considering I have little personal connection to the area. It's like Republican representation of Youngstown or something. It's just symbolically upsetting.
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« Reply #229 on: February 21, 2012, 04:29:11 pm »
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After 2012 if the Dems regain the state legislature could they pass their own plan?

I think it depends on the state. I know that in Wisconsin the constitution explicitly states that redistricting is only allowed to happen every 10 years. 
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« Reply #230 on: February 21, 2012, 04:31:27 pm »
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I'd love to see some polling in the new 8th. Republican representation of the Iron Range viscerally upsets me way more than it should considering I have little personal connection to the area. It's like Republican representation of Youngstown or something. It's just symbolically upsetting.

Agreed
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« Reply #231 on: February 21, 2012, 05:14:13 pm »
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Bachmann will still run in the 6th.  (Damn!)

http://www.startribune.com/politics/blogs/139836973.html
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« Reply #232 on: February 21, 2012, 06:48:58 pm »
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Bachmann will still run in the 6th.  (Damn!)

http://www.startribune.com/politics/blogs/139836973.html
Unsurprising.  And she'll win the district handily.  I'd expect Cravaack to lose fairly easily though.  Erik Paulsen will have an easier time being re-elected and John Kline will still be safe.

It'll be interesting to see how the legislative districts work out.  My old district was 4a, now I'm in 5a, which is more DFL friendly... while 5b is much more DFL friendly than 4b was... dropping the Brainerd Lakes area (GOP friendly) and picking up the Grand Rapids area.

So chances are I'll go back to having both a DFL house rep and state senator this fall.
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« Reply #233 on: February 21, 2012, 07:30:13 pm »
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So the followed my recommendation and extended 3 westward into Carver County, and moved the northern tip of Dakota into 2, clearly establishing 2 and 6 as northern and southern metro districts.

I think I would have put more of Rice in 2, and Wabasha and Goodhue in 2, but that is a minor quibble.  A quite excellent plan.
Agree.
Quote
It also prepares for 2020 when 3, 5, 4 get merged into two districts, 2 and 6 take up the leftovers beginning with Washington, Anoka, and Carver, and parts of Ramsey and Hennepin as needed (eg St.Paul and Minneapolis in one district, and Hennepin in the other).

No, I don't really think it'll go like that...


There are 5 metro districts which have slightly less than 5 districts worth of population. Eliminating a Republican metro district makes the most sense.

Unless of course the GOP has a trifecta; in which case putting both Twin Cities into 1 district and carefully cracking the interior suburbs works.
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« Reply #234 on: February 21, 2012, 08:46:23 pm »
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So the followed my recommendation and extended 3 westward into Carver County, and moved the northern tip of Dakota into 2, clearly establishing 2 and 6 as northern and southern metro districts.

I think I would have put more of Rice in 2, and Wabasha and Goodhue in 2, but that is a minor quibble.  A quite excellent plan.
Agree.
Quote
It also prepares for 2020 when 3, 5, 4 get merged into two districts, 2 and 6 take up the leftovers beginning with Washington, Anoka, and Carver, and parts of Ramsey and Hennepin as needed (eg St.Paul and Minneapolis in one district, and Hennepin in the other).

No, I don't really think it'll go like that...


There are 5 metro districts which have slightly less than 5 districts worth of population. Eliminating a Republican metro district makes the most sense.

Unless of course the GOP has a trifecta; in which case putting both Twin Cities into 1 district and carefully cracking the interior suburbs works.
They have slightly less than 5/8 which is why they have to include St.Cloud.

But they have nowhere close to 5/7.  It is much closer to a bit more than 4/7.  So Chisago and Isanti will continue to be trimmed,  and perhaps Wright and Sherbourne.  Maybe the fringes of Carver, Scott, and Dakota get trimmed.

With 4 metro districts you can't have 3,5,4 in a stack and one wraparound district.  And shopping Hennepin 3 ways (between Minneapolis and a northern and southern suburban district doesn't make sense.  Because Minneapolis is larger than St. Paul, and you run out of room to the east, the center of the metro area keeps moving west.
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« Reply #235 on: February 21, 2012, 10:27:45 pm »
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First impressions:

-Bachmann running in the 4th against McCollum was never anything but wishful thinking, but if she did she would lose by a lot more than 15 points. Closer to double that. But even Bachmann isn't crazy enough to do that when she can just move a few miles north to be back in the district, which is unfortunately even more Republican now. Now the only non-staunchly Republican areas it has are the liberal part of St. Cloud and some swingy suburbs in lower Anoka like Blaine.

-So my workplace is in MN-2, ugh. I don't really like the idea of having to travel to a district represented by a Republican every day, though who knows I might have a new job before the vote is actually held...though really my workplace doesn't belong there, nor do towns with "St. Paul" in the name. It's almost like even the court couldn't resist an opportunity to spite Bachmann.

-Kline and Paulsen's districts are about equal in PVI now. Neither is likely to lose, but then again Kline has never had a serious challenger since he took office and doesn't really have a huge personal vote especially in the new areas, DFL should at least try to recruit here. At least moreso than against Paulsen, the main thing to consider is that Kline's new territory is far less Republican than Paulsen's.

-The split of Rice is kind of ugly, but it makes sense. Faribault always belonged in MN-1, it's a classic midwestern working class town that MN-1 is full of. Northfield (where ColinWixted is going to college now, unless he transferred), is basically just a college town tucked away on the fringe of the metro and would be just another exurb without the colleges. The two share a county but not much in common and aren't even in the same State Senate seat. Both are now in the right district. This helps Walz of course.

-The 8th doesn't change much which isn't surprising since no major changes were needed. Cravaack will lose unless the DFL messes things up badly since he hasn't done much anything to build goodwill or a personal vote, he notoriously started out opening only one constituent services office near his home and completely neglected Duluth which is basically the "capital" of the district, Oberstar whom he accused of being out of touch always had four offices (one in the exurbs, Duluth, Iron Range and rural western counties). He eventually opened one in Duluth after the backlash, and has been a lockstep GOP voter. BTW isn't Snowguy's home in the 8th now?

-Putting Brooklyn Center in with us may help Paulsen but it makes sense, and the only reason it wasn't done in 2002 was it would make the rest of the district kind of awkward. The split of Edina is kind of weird, but the area that was included in the 5th isn't "cake eater" territory anymore. My favorite mall is now in the 5th district. Under the old map I have been to four districts in the state this year (2, 3, 4 and 5), under the new one it's just 2, 4 and 5.

I've just eyeballed the legislative seats but it appears the changes so far are mostly just numerical, I noticed the Edina based House seat has shed some of its more Republican precincts which is bad news for the teabagger incumbent. Definitely no endangering of us retaking either house.
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« Reply #236 on: February 21, 2012, 11:56:36 pm »
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So the followed my recommendation and extended 3 westward into Carver County, and moved the northern tip of Dakota into 2, clearly establishing 2 and 6 as northern and southern metro districts.

I think I would have put more of Rice in 2, and Wabasha and Goodhue in 2, but that is a minor quibble.  A quite excellent plan.
Agree.
Quote



No, I don't really think it'll go like that...


There are 5 metro districts which have slightly less than 5 districts worth of population. Eliminating a Republican metro district makes the most sense.

Unless of course the GOP has a trifecta; in which case putting both Twin Cities into 1 district and carefully cracking the interior suburbs works.
They have slightly less than 5/8 which is why they have to include St.Cloud.

But they have nowhere close to 5/7.  It is much closer to a bit more than 4/7.  So Chisago and Isanti will continue to be trimmed,  and perhaps Wright and Sherbourne.  Maybe the fringes of Carver, Scott, and Dakota get trimmed.

With 4 metro districts you can't have 3,5,4 in a stack and one wraparound district.  And shopping Hennepin 3 ways (between Minneapolis and a northern and southern suburban district doesn't make sense.  Because Minneapolis is larger than St. Paul, and you run out of room to the east, the center of the metro area keeps moving west.

Splitting Hennepin 3 ways gives you a northern suburb district, a southern suburb district, a Hennepin/Minneapolis district, and a Ramsey/Washington district.

Population trends will determine whether the 75% Dem twin cities pack is even viable. No chance it happens unless both cities fit into 1 district, and they might not as they seem to have grown a bit over the past few years.
It also prepares for 2020 when 3, 5, 4 get merged into two districts, 2 and 6 take up the leftovers beginning with Washington, Anoka, and Carver, and parts of Ramsey and Hennepin as needed (eg St.Paul and Minneapolis in one district, and Hennepin in the other).
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« Reply #237 on: February 22, 2012, 12:09:48 am »
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BRTD, the part of Rice that Waltz got went 51% McCain. Klein kept Northfield, which is where the Dems really live in Rice, hanging out in that academic college town. The county seat isn't that Dem.  It looks to me like MN-02 went about a point or two Dem, and MN-01 went the opposite way by somewhat less (the exchange of territory there is all about 51% McCain, so the move to the GOP would be limited to whatever increase in population it got). MN-08 and MN-07 get a tiny bit more Pub.
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« Reply #238 on: February 22, 2012, 12:55:12 am »
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The 8th actually moves .2 more Democratic...it goes from 53.1/44.5 Obama to 53.2/44.4.

The 7th gets about tad more red; its 50.5/47.0 McCain from 50.1/47.4.

Yes, these changes are quite profound!
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« Reply #239 on: February 22, 2012, 02:33:34 am »
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Yeah and the area that Walz lost to the west is more Republican than anything he gained. But I tried drawing this in DRA, and the partisan change to the first is basically statistically negligible. So Walz is fine, but we all already knew that anyway (it's not like major changes to the district were ever geographically possible anyway)
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« Reply #240 on: February 22, 2012, 10:15:35 am »
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Yeah and the area that Walz lost to the west is more Republican than anything he gained. But I tried drawing this in DRA, and the partisan change to the first is basically statistically negligible. So Walz is fine, but we all already knew that anyway (it's not like major changes to the district were ever geographically possible anyway)


McCain carried that western salient by about 600 votes. But yes, the change is negligible.
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« Reply #241 on: February 22, 2012, 02:11:48 pm »
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So the followed my recommendation and extended 3 westward into Carver County, and moved the northern tip of Dakota into 2, clearly establishing 2 and 6 as northern and southern metro districts.

I think I would have put more of Rice in 2, and Wabasha and Goodhue in 2, but that is a minor quibble.  A quite excellent plan.
Agree.
Quote



No, I don't really think it'll go like that...


There are 5 metro districts which have slightly less than 5 districts worth of population. Eliminating a Republican metro district makes the most sense.

Unless of course the GOP has a trifecta; in which case putting both Twin Cities into 1 district and carefully cracking the interior suburbs works.
They have slightly less than 5/8 which is why they have to include St.Cloud.

But they have nowhere close to 5/7.  It is much closer to a bit more than 4/7.  So Chisago and Isanti will continue to be trimmed,  and perhaps Wright and Sherbourne.  Maybe the fringes of Carver, Scott, and Dakota get trimmed.

With 4 metro districts you can't have 3,5,4 in a stack and one wraparound district.  And shopping Hennepin 3 ways (between Minneapolis and a northern and southern suburban district doesn't make sense.  Because Minneapolis is larger than St. Paul, and you run out of room to the east, the center of the metro area keeps moving west.

Splitting Hennepin 3 ways gives you a northern suburb district, a southern suburb district, a Hennepin/Minneapolis district, and a Ramsey/Washington district.
And then you put St Cloud wholly into the 7th and the far northwest into the 8th, and trim the second's not-really-suburban edges into the 1st. Amend the southwest corner of the state as necessary.
This is, of course, assuming a court to draw the map in 2022.
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« Reply #242 on: February 22, 2012, 03:03:27 pm »
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Hmm, the maps look nice.  The Metro is well done.  At first I puzzled at some of the west metro splits, but then I saw that, say, yeah, the parts of Plymouth in SD 46 are indeed like St. Louis Park and Hopkins.  I'd put Wayzata in with 33B for sure, but I'd assume there was some population weirdness going on.
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« Reply #243 on: February 22, 2012, 04:29:20 pm »
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So the followed my recommendation and extended 3 westward into Carver County, and moved the northern tip of Dakota into 2, clearly establishing 2 and 6 as northern and southern metro districts.

I think I would have put more of Rice in 2, and Wabasha and Goodhue in 2, but that is a minor quibble.  A quite excellent plan.
Agree.
Quote



No, I don't really think it'll go like that...


There are 5 metro districts which have slightly less than 5 districts worth of population. Eliminating a Republican metro district makes the most sense.

Unless of course the GOP has a trifecta; in which case putting both Twin Cities into 1 district and carefully cracking the interior suburbs works.
They have slightly less than 5/8 which is why they have to include St.Cloud.

But they have nowhere close to 5/7.  It is much closer to a bit more than 4/7.  So Chisago and Isanti will continue to be trimmed,  and perhaps Wright and Sherbourne.  Maybe the fringes of Carver, Scott, and Dakota get trimmed.

With 4 metro districts you can't have 3,5,4 in a stack and one wraparound district.  And shopping Hennepin 3 ways (between Minneapolis and a northern and southern suburban district doesn't make sense.  Because Minneapolis is larger than St. Paul, and you run out of room to the east, the center of the metro area keeps moving west.

Splitting Hennepin 3 ways gives you a northern suburb district, a southern suburb district, a Hennepin/Minneapolis district, and a Ramsey/Washington district.
And then you put St Cloud wholly into the 7th and the far northwest into the 8th, and trim the second's not-really-suburban edges into the 1st. Amend the southwest corner of the state as necessary.
This is, of course, assuming a court to draw the map in 2022.

I suspect a Democratic map would not split Minneapolis in any case and there would still be a 2-2 metro.

That said, even if the GOP attempts the twin cities pack, you result in 3 ~49-52% districts. Bachmann of course would have to take the bulk of Ramsey County.
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« Reply #244 on: February 22, 2012, 06:08:50 pm »
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That said, even if the GOP attempts the twin cities pack, you result in 3 ~49-52% districts. Bachmann of course would have to take the bulk of Ramsey County.
Maybe not.  My  map a couple of years ago was Minneapolis+St Paul plus the first tier north of St.Paul.  By 2020 it could be Minneapolis+Ramsey.
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« Reply #245 on: February 26, 2012, 06:14:31 pm »
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Here are the stats.  Everything gets more Pub except MN-02.







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« Reply #246 on: February 27, 2012, 08:46:48 am »

Here are the stats.  Everything gets more Pub except MN-02.




It really illustrates the relative growth of the GOP suburbs compared to the rest of the state.
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« Reply #247 on: February 28, 2012, 03:33:12 am »
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OK here's something I noticed about the legislative map: They actually put all of downtown in the same district and attached it to the residential area most connected to it. This seems like common sense, but the current map for some inexplicable reason carves up downtown and attaches pieces of it to locations with no direct connection like uptown, the north Minneapolis slums and even the University area. Sure not many people live in the actual downtown, but it doesn't make any sense to carve it up like that.

More commentary on legislative districts later once I get the time to check them out more...
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« Reply #248 on: March 19, 2012, 12:42:10 pm »
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I'm going to try to handicap all legislative seats to see what our odds are of taking back both chambers. I was kind of scared at first but realize it's not that difficult or time consuming after seeing how many seats "exurbs, Safe R" or "Twin Cities, safe DFL".

Will do the Senate first.
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« Reply #249 on: March 19, 2012, 01:24:30 pm »
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Maps:

http://www.mncourts.gov/Documents/0/Public/Court_Information_Office/Redistricting2011Final/Minnesota_State_Legislative_Districts_Statewide.pdf
http://www.mncourts.gov/Documents/0/Public/Court_Information_Office/Redistricting2011Final/Minnesota_State_Legislative_Districts_Metropolitan_Area.pdf

Senate:

1: LeRoy Stumpf should have no problem getting re-elected here, he won easily even in 2010 and the district doesn't change much, was barely Obama, still barely Obama. Safe DFL.
2: Kind of a weird seat, I don't know why there's an insistence Bemidji always needs to be separate from the Reservation. DFLer Rod Skoe lives here and goes from barely Obama to barely McCain, but he'd still be favored outside of a 2010 situation. Lean DFL.
3: Safe DFL seat, now includes Koochiching county, no big change. Tom Bakk should be fine here. Safe DFL.
4: The district based around Moorhead, which is basically Fargo's spillover into Minnesota. Pretty solidly DFL seat, now the non-Clay portion includes Norman County instead of the Republican counties to the south, so Keith Langseth should be fine. Safe DFL.
5: Snowguy's home seat, and the first one with a Republican incumbent. John Carlson won in 2010, but the seat is 51.5% Obama and 54% DFL average so it's tough territory for him outside a wave, especially since turnout in the DFL areas of this region sucked in 2010. Lean DFL.
6: The new seat for mining towns in northern St. Louis County, due to population loss goes into Aitkin now, no big deal. David Tomassoni should win this seat easily (by the way check his Wikipedia article if you want to see why Phil might be tempted to vote for him if he lived here.) Safe DFL.
7: Duluth. Roger Reinert runs and wins. Safe DFL.
8: This is a safe GOP seat, but includes two Republican incumbents, Gretchen Hoffman from Otter Tail County and Bill Ingebrigtsen from Alexandria. The latter might just run in the new 12 instead. Safe GOP regardless.
9: Even safer GOP seat, but incumbent. Maybe Ingebrigtsen would rather run here, it contains a few portions of his old seat but is far from Alexandria. Safe GOP no matter what.
10: Interesting district, used to have an outed gay Republican incumbent, was primaried in 2010 by the supposedly not interested in social issues Tea Party, now held by a far right winger with the old incumbent endorsing his DFL opponent. It's a conservative but not extremist district, about 52% McCain but some of the Republicans around Brainerd are kind of moderate, so we'll call it Lean GOP.
11: This seat gets a bit more Republican due to population loss forcing it into Kanabec, but 55% Obama is safe for this part of the world. Tony Lourey will hold it for another 10 years unless he retires. Safe DFL.
12: As far as I can tell, this seat is open. It's mostly DFL rural areas combined with parts of Stearns County, now making it a 52.7% McCain district. A DFL incumbent in the area passed away recently and a special election for the old district is going to be held, will probably be won by the DFL, the new incumbent might run here, but it'd have to be considered Lean GOP in any case.
13: Suburbs of St. Cloud and some old German towns, Safe GOP. Incumbent Michelle Fischbach, a known anti-abortion zealot should win here easily.
14: Thew new St. Cloud district. As usual, a swing one. 51.5% Obama and DFL percentage, GOP incumbent John Pederson. Tarryl Clark would probably be favored here but she's running for CD8 instead, but this one will be heavily fought. Toss Up.
15: Kind of succeeds the old 16th, held by Republican Dave Becker, he should win fine here again, even though this was actually a pickup in 2010 due to bizarre special election circumstances resulting in a huge upset for the DFL. Safe GOP.
16: Remnants of the old and vacant 20, so the winner of that special might run here, but incumbent Gary Dahms would be favored. Lean GOP.
17: Also includes remnants of the above mentioned and essentially dissolved seat. It's the most DFL of the seats, McCain won by half a point. Also the general area used to be represented by Dean Johnson even if he screwed himself to lose in 2006 of all years with that gaffe. Still not unwinnable, Lean GOP.
18: Safe GOP seat, safe for incumbent Scott Newman, Safe GOP.
19: My old home! The old district was considered kind of swingy due to Republican townships in Sibley County, the new one has lost those and is 56.3% Obama. So safe for Kathy Sheran though she didn't really need it. Safe DFL.
20: This is kind of an interesting seat, it combines ultra-liberal Northfield and some very conservative rural areas, its predecessor in the 25th was held by a longtime GOP incumbent who resigned in late 2007 to take a judicial position, a DFLer won the special and then lost in 2010. The new seat is very narrowly for Obama, won by about half a point, has a one point generic DFL advantage, VERY polarized. And to top it off the incumbent Al DeKruif doesn't even live here, though he no doubt will soon. Toss Up.
21: This is a very close district won by McCain by 0.2%, however the GOP incumbent John Howe is the former mayor of Red Wing and probably has quite a personal vote, so it'll take a wave to dislodge him most likely. Lean GOP.
22: The old Jim Vickerman seat which even had the same number, now takes in some more DFL areas. Vickerman retired in 2010 and his son ran for the seat but obviously no Democrat could've held that in 2010. The new seat isn't as extreme at 51.2% McCain, but would require a really strong candidate or a wave to beat Doug Magnus. Lean GOP.
23: Not a radically conservative seat (51.9% McCain), but the Republicans have a very strong incumbent in Julie Rosen. So safe until she retires. Safe GOP.
24: Extremist incumbent Mike Parry is retiring for a quixiotic campaign against Walz, despite that he was only first elected to the seat in early 2010 in a special election. I wonder if he was forced out by power brokers who wanted someone more electable running. Seat is 50.4% McCain but DFL incumbents hold both House seats even after 2010. Call it Lean GOP.
25: For all the recent gains the DFL have made in Rochester, we kind of get screwed by the way the courts insist of keeping it split between State Senate seats since all the surrounding areas are quite Republican. David Senjem should be re-elected here though I think it slightly moves to the left from his old seat, which used to contain all of Dodge county, the new seat is barely Obama but would require an open seat or a wave. Senjem is the current Majority Leader replacing the disgraced Koch. So Safe GOP.
26: Carla Nelson holds this seat, which is marginally more DFL, the closest seat to it pre-redistricting was DFL from 2006 until 2010, worth noting this district contains the blackest seat in outstate Minnesota and probably the only minority white non-Reservation precinct in outstate Minnesota (which is about evenly split between whites and Hispanics with about 15% of blacks). Toss up.
27: This seat is slightly more Republican than its successor, but Dan Sparks should have no trouble, it's still over 58% Obama and Sparks won over 60% even in 2010 even if he only won by like 12 votes in 2002 defeating a fluke GOP incumbent. Safe DFL.
28: This didn't change much if at all in redistricting, but incumbent Jeremy Miller is in big trouble. He won in 2010 with awful college student turnout across the state, including Winona. Gay marriage and Obama mean that probably won't happen this time, Miller voted for the gay marriage amendment too. And it's a 56.7% Obama seat. This is going to be the DFL's top target. Lean DFL.
29: The seat of disgraced former Senate Majority Leader Amy Koch who led the campaign against gay marriage only to be found to be having an affair with a staffer leading to her resignation from her position. She is standing down and not running again, but it's a safe seat regardless. Safe GOP.
30: This is a basically new seat out in the exurbs, open and safe. Safe GOP.
31: Another exurban seat home to incumbent Mike Jungbauer. Safe GOP.
32: The new seat for the home of Cravaack exurbs. Believe it or not this seat fell just in 2010, but is probably unwinnable back now. Sean Nienow should be fine. Safe GOP.
33: This seat keeps the same number, very Republican territory about Lake Minnetonka basically. Gen Olson has held this for three decades, even if she retires it's safe. Safe GOP.

To be continued....
« Last Edit: March 19, 2012, 05:08:46 pm by The needle and the damage done »Logged




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