US House Redistricting: Minnesota

[Gass3268]

I would say in general that this map is a positive for Democrats.
- Michelle Bachman was drawn out of the 6th and into the 4th . She'll have to move in order represent the majority of her previous district. I really hope she bullheadedly tries to run against Betty McCollum in the 4th and ends up losing by 15%.
- John Kline has a competitive district in the 2nd.
- Nothing else radically changes.

It is very possible that Democrats could come out of here with 6-2 advantage, with John Kline and Chip Cravaack losing.

[Gass3268]

Kline losing? Keep dreaming. There's a reason they put those South St Paul suburbs they removed from the fourth (a fact they glossed over in their order, btw) here and not in the 3rd, as the Dem proposal did. Because they would have made a difference there.
It's a 4-4 map, but with Peterson having proven he can hold a (marginally) false-party district seemingly forever, and Cravaack not having proven anything of the kind yet. And thus arguably a 5-3 map.
And one R incumbent has a problem, but that just opens opportunities for other Republicans.

It is 50.5% Obama district now. You're probably right that Kline won't lose, but if he retires this district could be interesting. 

[Gass3268]

After 2012 if the Dems regain the state legislature could they pass their own plan?

I think it depends on the state. I know that in Wisconsin the constitution explicitly states that redistricting is only allowed to happen every 10 years. 

[Gass3268]

I'd love to see some polling in the new 8th. Republican representation of the Iron Range viscerally upsets me way more than it should considering I have little personal connection to the area. It's like Republican representation of Youngstown or something. It's just symbolically upsetting.

Agreed

[Gass3268]

Any thoughts what the DFL would draw if they have total control in 2020?