US House Redistricting: Minnesota

[Fritz]

In this thread, I see three different breakdowns of the congressional district deviation from average.  So, which one of these can we go by?

Here are the 2009 ACS estimates, plus deviation from average (658,000 vs. 664,000 for census).  The growth in the average is 43/49 of the census to census difference, which suggests that we could simply multiply the deviations by 10/9 and get pretty good 2010 estimates.  But we can simply balance the shifts to see what a minimally modified map would look like.


1   635,331   -22,946
2   731,468    73,191
3   651,676    -6,601
4   614,059   -44,218
5   618,840   -39,437
6   749,383    91,106
7   614,738   -43,539
8   650,720    -7,557

Currently,

MN-2 and MN-6 are quite a bit over (75K)
MN-3 and MN-8 are quite close.
MN-1 is somewhat under (25K)
MN-7, 5, and 4 are under (45K)

[Fritz]

Based on information from this site, I have calculated the optimum re-distribution of Minnesota's population among its 8 districts.  (Numbers rounded to nearest multiple of 5.)

1st District gains 18205 from the 2nd.
2nd District loses 18205 to the 1st, 27140 to the 3rd, and 24180 to the 4th.
3rd District loses 46510 to the 5th, and gains 27140 from the 2nd, and 32180 from the 6th.
4th District gains 24180 from the 2nd, and 24180 from the 6th.
5th District gains 46510 from the 3rd.
6th District loses 32180 to the 3rd, 24180 to the 4th, 37480 to the 7th, and 2650 to the 8th.
7th District gains 37480 from the 6th.
8th District gains 2650 from the 6th.

[Fritz]

I don't have a map, but the calculations in my post above is the way to re-map with as few changes as possible.  There is simply no cause for a completely new configuration (particularly of districts 7 and 8 ) as proposed by the Republican map.

[Fritz]

I'm having trouble understanding how the new map equalizes the population.  District 2 appears to have gotten bigger rather than smaller, and 4, 5, and 6 appear largely unchanged.  Did 6 lose St. Cloud?

[Fritz]

Bachmann will still run in the 6th.  (Damn!)

http://www.startribune.com/politics/blogs/139836973.html