US House Redistricting: Minnesota

[krazen1211]

why do the republicans bother proposing such preposterous maps? They know it will get vetoed.

Wonder if they can send this through as a constitutional amendment.

But its probably for the same reason that Nevada Democrats did what they did. To spend their time doing something.

[krazen1211]

So the followed my recommendation and extended 3 westward into Carver County, and moved the northern tip of Dakota into 2, clearly establishing 2 and 6 as northern and southern metro districts.

I think I would have put more of Rice in 2, and Wabasha and Goodhue in 2, but that is a minor quibble.  A quite excellent plan.

Agree.

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No, I don't really think it'll go like that...

There are 5 metro districts which have slightly less than 5 districts worth of population. Eliminating a Republican metro district makes the most sense.

Unless of course the GOP has a trifecta; in which case putting both Twin Cities into 1 district and carefully cracking the interior suburbs works.

[krazen1211]

So the followed my recommendation and extended 3 westward into Carver County, and moved the northern tip of Dakota into 2, clearly establishing 2 and 6 as northern and southern metro districts.

I think I would have put more of Rice in 2, and Wabasha and Goodhue in 2, but that is a minor quibble.  A quite excellent plan.

Agree.

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No, I don't really think it'll go like that...

There are 5 metro districts which have slightly less than 5 districts worth of population. Eliminating a Republican metro district makes the most sense.

Unless of course the GOP has a trifecta; in which case putting both Twin Cities into 1 district and carefully cracking the interior suburbs works.

They have slightly less than 5/8 which is why they have to include St.Cloud.

But they have nowhere close to 5/7.  It is much closer to a bit more than 4/7.  So Chisago and Isanti will continue to be trimmed,  and perhaps Wright and Sherbourne.  Maybe the fringes of Carver, Scott, and Dakota get trimmed.

With 4 metro districts you can't have 3,5,4 in a stack and one wraparound district.  And shopping Hennepin 3 ways (between Minneapolis and a northern and southern suburban district doesn't make sense.  Because Minneapolis is larger than St. Paul, and you run out of room to the east, the center of the metro area keeps moving west.

Splitting Hennepin 3 ways gives you a northern suburb district, a southern suburb district, a Hennepin/Minneapolis district, and a Ramsey/Washington district.

Population trends will determine whether the 75% Dem twin cities pack is even viable. No chance it happens unless both cities fit into 1 district, and they might not as they seem to have grown a bit over the past few years.
It also prepares for 2020 when 3, 5, 4 get merged into two districts, 2 and 6 take up the leftovers beginning with Washington, Anoka, and Carver, and parts of Ramsey and Hennepin as needed (eg St.Paul and Minneapolis in one district, and Hennepin in the other).

[krazen1211]

So the followed my recommendation and extended 3 westward into Carver County, and moved the northern tip of Dakota into 2, clearly establishing 2 and 6 as northern and southern metro districts.

I think I would have put more of Rice in 2, and Wabasha and Goodhue in 2, but that is a minor quibble.  A quite excellent plan.

Agree.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

No, I don't really think it'll go like that...

There are 5 metro districts which have slightly less than 5 districts worth of population. Eliminating a Republican metro district makes the most sense.

Unless of course the GOP has a trifecta; in which case putting both Twin Cities into 1 district and carefully cracking the interior suburbs works.

They have slightly less than 5/8 which is why they have to include St.Cloud.

But they have nowhere close to 5/7.  It is much closer to a bit more than 4/7.  So Chisago and Isanti will continue to be trimmed,  and perhaps Wright and Sherbourne.  Maybe the fringes of Carver, Scott, and Dakota get trimmed.

With 4 metro districts you can't have 3,5,4 in a stack and one wraparound district.  And shopping Hennepin 3 ways (between Minneapolis and a northern and southern suburban district doesn't make sense.  Because Minneapolis is larger than St. Paul, and you run out of room to the east, the center of the metro area keeps moving west.

Splitting Hennepin 3 ways gives you a northern suburb district, a southern suburb district, a Hennepin/Minneapolis district, and a Ramsey/Washington district.

And then you put St Cloud wholly into the 7th and the far northwest into the 8th, and trim the second's not-really-suburban edges into the 1st. Amend the southwest corner of the state as necessary.
This is, of course, assuming a court to draw the map in 2022.

I suspect a Democratic map would not split Minneapolis in any case and there would still be a 2-2 metro.

That said, even if the GOP attempts the twin cities pack, you result in 3 ~49-52% districts. Bachmann of course would have to take the bulk of Ramsey County.

[krazen1211]

The Twin Cities are of course far smaller than a congressional district in 2020.