US House Redistricting: Michigan
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BRTD
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« Reply #325 on: June 20, 2011, 10:13:02 PM »

Why would I, or anyone for that matter move TO Michigan?

But actually what I proposed for Livingston there is kind of what happened with New Brunswick due to it sitting right between NYC and Philly.
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BigSkyBob
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« Reply #326 on: June 20, 2011, 11:51:53 PM »

How does putting Lansing in with Detroit exurbs make sense for any reason beyond purely partisan ones?

Well, it doesn't fit anywhere else.  Grand Rapids to the West, the Tri-cities/Flint to the North East, and South-central MI to the South.  Each of those areas has its own district that is a pretty good COI, so Lansing gets shafted and shoved with the extra Detroit Burbs.  Its of course drawn in a way to make it an R seat, but its not like they're just trying to spite the city.

Ummm... No? You're being a partisan hack? The Lansing metro (Ingham, Eaton, Shiawassee, Clinton) is much, much clearer community of interest than "random small cities plus parts of Lansing and some suburbs" that MI-07 consists of.

No---Try it.  The way Michigan is drawn demographically, someone has to get screwed---Republicans draw the map so Republicans screw the easiest (and Safest) section.

Take a look at BRTD's map if you want to see what i mean.  Creating a Lansing-district screws over a bunch of other people by sucking up all the extra central MI population.  Its not like Putting Lansing with Livingston is any less odd than putting Livingston with Flint and Suburban Macomb with Bay City.

You don't have to screw either. Yes, BRTD's map is equally illogical, but that does not mean there are not logical maps that can be drawn.

One Lansing area seat (the four counties plus Jackson and a couple of towns in other counties), one Livingston and outer Oakland seat (plus a bit of suburban Wayne), one Ann Arbor, suburban Wayne and Monroe seat, two Wayne black seats, two suburban Oakland-Macomb seats, one exurban Macomb and mitten-thumb seat, one Flint-Saginaw seat, one Bay City and rural areas seat, one Kalamazoo/Battle Creek/southern tier seat, one Lake Michigan coast seat (Benton Harbor-Holland-Muskegon), one Grand Rapids seat and one north-and-UP seat. It all works out nicely.



...if you are a Democrat. You have split the Democratic areas of Michigan so that Democratic areas are in the sweat spot of neither being packed or cracked [except, of course, the VRA seats in Detroit.] In do so, you are assuring that most of the Republican areas are either cracked or packed.

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minionofmidas
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« Reply #327 on: June 21, 2011, 04:20:27 AM »

For what it's worth, here's what I did in an effort to make a community-of-interest-oriented map.


Don't like it. Saginaw ought to be with Bay City (especially if Bay City is with Flint!) That gray district, while logical from the outside, won't feel like it to locals if Detroit's suburbs are anything like most other similar areas in the world.

There actually is an alternative to either splitting Lansing (self-forbidding if you've got any respect for good governance at all) or drawing an additional Democratic seat. Torie explored it earlier on the incorrect data. Create a Flint-and-Lansing Dem pack. Not saying that's nice, of course, but it's probably preferable to the status quo if you're from Lansing.
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Dgov
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« Reply #328 on: June 21, 2011, 05:05:45 AM »

There actually is an alternative to either splitting Lansing (self-forbidding if you've got any respect for good governance at all) or drawing an additional Democratic seat. Torie explored it earlier on the incorrect data. Create a Flint-and-Lansing Dem pack. Not saying that's nice, of course, but it's probably preferable to the status quo if you're from Lansing.

Wouldn't it be easier to do a Lansing-Ann Arbor Pack?  Saginaw and Bay City are probably Too Democratic to put both in a Republican district, so the 5th is doing pretty good as is.  The current 15th on the other hand takes in plenty of only slightly D territory south of Detroit, and Washtenew county is what makes it safe D.  Hell, draw an Ann-arbor Lansing Pack and then take the 8th towards the southern 55% Obama parts of Wayne/Monroe county currently in the 15th while the 11th can then take the Republican part of Oakland county currently in the 8th.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #329 on: June 21, 2011, 05:54:10 AM »

That might be possible... but is certainly not nice or justifiable on (even hackishly motivated) CoI grounds or going to be popular in Lansing. Though Lansing is an oddball town, formerly dominated by the car industry but also with the state government and an old uni.

Also, there's the question of what you put those now weak dem areas in South Wayne (and Monroe) with instead. It'd have to be quite Republican areas to break their Dem traditions.
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Verily
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« Reply #330 on: June 21, 2011, 08:08:54 AM »
« Edited: June 21, 2011, 08:15:32 AM by Verily »

Two solidly Democratic black seats (one majority black VAP, the other plurality black VAP and majority black+Hispanic VAP).

One Democratic seat based on Ann Arbor and the traditionally Democratic southern Wayne suburbs and Monroe County, 62% Obama

One marginal seat containing the southern tier and Battle Creek and Kalamazoo, 52-45 Obama, would probably be Republican

One Republican-leaning seat on Lake Michigan, Benton Harbor-Holland-Muskegon, 49-49 McCain.

One Republican seat in Grand Rapids, contains the entire county plus the suburban spillover in Ottawa County and Ionia County, 47-50 McCain.

One Democratic-leaning seat in Lansing, containing the Lansing metro plus Jackson, 57-41 Obama.

One Republican seat in Livingston and the Oakland suburbs, plus part of Wayne County to balance things out, 45-52 McCain.

One Democratic seat in inner Oakland and Macomb counties, 64-34 Obama.

One Democratic-leaning marginal seat in mid-Oakland and Macomb counties, 55-43 Obama

One Republican seat in outer Macomb and the thumb, 47-50 McCain

One Democratic seat in Flint-Saginaw-Bay City (originally wanted to keep Flint separate, but this proved too unwieldy), 62-35 Obama

One Republican-leaning seat in the small cities of the upper LP (Midland, Isabella, Alpena; Alpena could be exchanged for Traverse City if desired) 51-47 Obama

One Republican-leaning seat in the UP and Traverse City, 50-48 Obama

6D-6R-2 in a state that was more Democratic than the nation is pretty generous to the Republicans, ultimately. Certainly this map does not favor the Democrats.

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ilikeverin
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« Reply #331 on: June 21, 2011, 08:33:53 AM »

That map seems to make a lot of sense, Verily, though I'd want to see the Detroit-area districts a little closer.
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BigSkyBob
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« Reply #332 on: June 21, 2011, 10:00:51 AM »

That map seems to make a lot of sense, Verily, though I'd want to see the Detroit-area districts a little closer.

It makes sense if you are a Democrat since it restructures the outstate districts to eliminate a Republican seat in Western Michigan and replace it with a Democratic seat in Central Michigan.

It then maintains a 5-1_1/2 seat of seats in metro Detroit by created an outersuburban pack district to dump as many Republicans as possible. That might make sense to a Democrat.

It fails to cross Eightmile right to add Blacks to the two Detroit districts because they are underpopulated. Drawing districts that are 51% Black rather than 54%/56% might make sense if you are Democrat.


Crossing the Macomb/Oakland county line three times might make sense if you are a Democrat, but, it isn't within the rules.
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« Reply #333 on: June 21, 2011, 11:41:05 AM »

That map seems to make a lot of sense, Verily, though I'd want to see the Detroit-area districts a little closer.

It makes sense if you are a Democrat since it restructures the outstate districts to eliminate a Republican seat in Western Michigan and replace it with a Democratic seat in Central Michigan.

Gee, you mean a non-partisanly drawn map gives more Democrat seats than a Republican gerrymander? What a shocker!

It then maintains a 5-1_1/2 seat of seats in metro Detroit by created an outersuburban pack district to dump as many Republicans as possible. That might make sense to a Democrat.

Just like the Detroit districts are Dem pack seat? It does make sense to draw a district reflecting a community of interest in the outer suburbs that contains a lot of Republicans. More so than splitting up this area to create more Republican seats and marginalize Dem ones, that might make sense to a Republican. The alternative to this is either using Livingston to screw over Lansing, or screwing over it with Flint or Ann Arbor.

It fails to cross Eightmile right to add Blacks to the two Detroit districts because they are underpopulated. Drawing districts that are 51% Black rather than 54%/56% might make sense if you are Democrat.

...and are just as likely to elect blacks. And this would make sense to people of all political stripes when the intention is obvious to preserve county lines.

Crossing the Macomb/Oakland county line three times might make sense if you are a Democrat, but, it isn't within the rules.

Which proves the rules aren't exactly as well-written to prevent gerrymandering as they seem to be thought. Not to mention those splits don't really help the Democrats anymore than just drawing districts within the counties do.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #334 on: June 21, 2011, 12:24:02 PM »

Thought it'd be relevant to post here: Inks won the Michigan Citizens Redistricting Competition with this map.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #335 on: June 21, 2011, 12:56:50 PM »

Just goes to show the competition wasn't great. Tongue
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BigSkyBob
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« Reply #336 on: June 21, 2011, 01:58:51 PM »
« Edited: June 21, 2011, 02:02:44 PM by BigSkyBob »

That map seems to make a lot of sense, Verily, though I'd want to see the Detroit-area districts a little closer.

It makes sense if you are a Democrat since it restructures the outstate districts to eliminate a Republican seat in Western Michigan and replace it with a Democratic seat in Central Michigan.

Gee, you mean a non-partisanly drawn map gives more Democrat seats than a Republican gerrymander? What a shocker!

His original suggestion constituted the best Democratic arrangement of districts given the constraint that the GOP holds all the outstate seats except the Fifth. So yes, the Democratic partisan map yeilds more Democratic seats than the new map.

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Just like the Detroit districts are Dem pack seat? It does make sense to draw a district reflecting a community of interest in the outer suburbs that contains a lot of Republicans. [/quote]

Certainly, if you follow that logic, it would make even more sense to draw two outersurburban districts that ring the metro area, rather than one outersuburban district in outer Northwestern outskirts of Detroit. The decision to create only one outer suburban [Republican dumping district] can't be justified rationally.


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Your theory doesn't make any sense. Either you partition the state along the lines of the current California map, or else, you have districts with a blending of some Republican areas and some Democratic areas. Claiming that Democratic areas are "screwed" if they are outvoted by the Republican areas is claiming that Democrats are entitled to be on the winning side of elections. That entitlement exists only in your imagination.


The basic fact is that Democrats linked Livingston with Lansing, and Pontiac  when the folks in Lansing and Pontiac outvoted ["screwed"] the folks in Livingston. The suburban areas started to grow, and they voted Republican. Now, you are bitching about the justice of linking Lansing with Livingston. Where were you a couple of decades ago?

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...and are just as likely to elect blacks. And this would make sense to people of all political stripes when the intention is obvious to preserve county lines. [/quote]


Lowering the Black percentage is lowering the probabiity that a Black wins the seat, and, certainly the probablity that that Black nominee was the prefered candidate of the majority Blacks in the primary.

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Which proves the rules aren't exactly as well-written to prevent gerrymandering as they seem to be thought. Not to mention those splits don't really help the Democrats anymore than just drawing districts within the counties do.
[/quote]

Oh, yes they are. For instance, the GOP could have placed the city of Midland in the Fifth, further stengthening the Fourth.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #337 on: June 21, 2011, 03:38:24 PM »

It makes sense if you are a Democrat since it restructures the outstate districts to eliminate a Republican seat in Western Michigan and replace it with a Democratic seat in Central Michigan.

It then maintains a 5-1_1/2 seat of seats in metro Detroit by created an outersuburban pack district to dump as many Republicans as possible. That might make sense to a Democrat.

It fails to cross Eightmile right to add Blacks to the two Detroit districts because they are underpopulated. Drawing districts that are 51% Black rather than 54%/56% might make sense if you are Democrat.


Crossing the Macomb/Oakland county line three times might make sense if you are a Democrat, but, it isn't within the rules.


If you are going to cut a black seat, as was done in that map, there is no more logical community of interest district than all the black areas of Detroit put together + the 2 cities inside.
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Verily
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« Reply #338 on: June 21, 2011, 04:57:09 PM »
« Edited: June 21, 2011, 04:59:34 PM by Verily »

It makes sense if you are a Democrat since it restructures the outstate districts to eliminate a Republican seat in Western Michigan and replace it with a Democratic seat in Central Michigan.

It then maintains a 5-1_1/2 seat of seats in metro Detroit by created an outersuburban pack district to dump as many Republicans as possible. That might make sense to a Democrat.

It fails to cross Eightmile right to add Blacks to the two Detroit districts because they are underpopulated. Drawing districts that are 51% Black rather than 54%/56% might make sense if you are Democrat.


Crossing the Macomb/Oakland county line three times might make sense if you are a Democrat, but, it isn't within the rules.


If you are going to cut a black seat, as was done in that map, there is no more logical community of interest district than all the black areas of Detroit put together + the 2 cities inside.

The map doesn't cut a black seat. There are two black seats.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #339 on: June 21, 2011, 05:14:54 PM »

The map doesn't cut a black seat. There are two black seats.

one majority black VAP, the other plurality black VAP and majority black+Hispanic VAP




This is quite clearly retrogressing a black seat.
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Verily
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« Reply #340 on: June 21, 2011, 05:20:02 PM »
« Edited: June 21, 2011, 05:26:30 PM by Verily »

The map doesn't cut a black seat. There are two black seats.

one majority black VAP, the other plurality black VAP and majority black+Hispanic VAP

This is quite clearly retrogressing a black seat.

lolno. Not even the Supreme Court agrees with you.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #341 on: June 21, 2011, 05:30:20 PM »

Thought it'd be relevant to post here: Inks won the Michigan Citizens Redistricting Competition with this map.

Here's some pictures of that map (unfortunately their software  doesn't automatically color each district, so it's a bit harder to tell them apart):



And a zoomed in view of the Metro-Detroit area:

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krazen1211
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« Reply #342 on: June 21, 2011, 05:45:14 PM »

The map doesn't cut a black seat. There are two black seats.

one majority black VAP, the other plurality black VAP and majority black+Hispanic VAP

This is quite clearly retrogressing a black seat.

lolno. Not even the Supreme Court agrees with you.

The definition of the wording is obvious, as are the numbers. But, go on drawing Democratic maps and describing them as 'fair', I won't stop you.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #343 on: June 21, 2011, 05:48:07 PM »

...and are just as likely to elect blacks. And this would make sense to people of all political stripes when the intention is obvious to preserve county lines.

Is anyone else laughing at the idea of a map that crosses Oakland > Macomb 3 times being described as 'preserving county lines'?
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dpmapper
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« Reply #344 on: June 21, 2011, 05:59:57 PM »


What on earth is going on with the 13th?  From Southfield to west Detroit and Inkster, but then bypassing Farmington Hills, Romulus and Westland to drop all the way down to Grosse Ile and northeast Monroe County?!
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BigSkyBob
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« Reply #345 on: June 21, 2011, 06:45:30 PM »


What on earth is going on with the 13th?  From Southfield to west Detroit and Inkster, but then bypassing Farmington Hills, Romulus and Westland to drop all the way down to Grosse Ile and northeast Monroe County?!

I'm sure the contest defined the "winner" as the map with the shortest net boundries, or such.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #346 on: June 21, 2011, 06:55:22 PM »


What on earth is going on with the 13th?  From Southfield to west Detroit and Inkster, but then bypassing Farmington Hills, Romulus and Westland to drop all the way down to Grosse Ile and northeast Monroe County?!

In order to minimize the county splits further west, I had to fiddle with Wayne County from my original design, but this decreased one of my districts to around 40% for African American VAP, so I had to do a little bit of odd-shaping to get 2 majority black VAP districts.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #347 on: June 21, 2011, 06:57:09 PM »


What on earth is going on with the 13th?  From Southfield to west Detroit and Inkster, but then bypassing Farmington Hills, Romulus and Westland to drop all the way down to Grosse Ile and northeast Monroe County?!

I'm sure the contest defined the "winner" as the map with the shortest net boundries, or such.

There were several categories: compactness, encouraging competitive districts, not giving one party a huge number of probable districts, minimizing county and municipal splits.  But after those categories, the judgets picked one that they thought evenly excelled at multiple categories.
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Verily
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« Reply #348 on: June 21, 2011, 07:13:02 PM »

The map doesn't cut a black seat. There are two black seats.

one majority black VAP, the other plurality black VAP and majority black+Hispanic VAP

This is quite clearly retrogressing a black seat.

lolno. Not even the Supreme Court agrees with you.

The definition of the wording is obvious, as are the numbers. But, go on drawing Democratic maps and describing them as 'fair', I won't stop you.

Okay, 6-6-2 in a lean-D state is totally a Democratic map.
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dpmapper
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« Reply #349 on: June 21, 2011, 09:26:17 PM »
« Edited: June 21, 2011, 09:42:06 PM by dpmapper »

All this Lansing talk gave me an idea.
 



If the GOP gets super ambitious, and still feels they can get away with one extra county split with a black district going from Wayne to the north, and McCotter is retiring, then here's a 10-4, with all 10 GOP seats between 48.5 and 51.5% Obama.  

Blue Northern Michigan: 49.9-48.3 O-M (Benishek)
Lavender Midland/Bay City: 50.3-47.9 O-M (Camp)
Red Holland/Muskegon: 48.5-49.9 O-M (Huizenga)
Purple Grand Rapids: 51.3-47.0 O-M (Amash)
Teal Kalamazoo: 51.5-46.9 O-M (Upton)
Lime Green southern seat: 49.4-48.8 O-M (Walberg)
Green thumb: 51.2-46.9 O-M (open)
Bluish gray St Clair/Macomb: 51.4-46.8 O-M (Miller)
Pink Oakland County: 50.8-47.6 O-M (Knollenberg to challenge Peters)
Grey Livingston County/Livonia/southern Wayne: 51.3-47.0 O-M (Rogers)

Levin and Dingell are both drawn into the tan district which is 54% black; the brown district is 53.5% black.  The yellow Lansing/Ann Arbor seat is wide open. 
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