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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Michigan  (Read 28755 times)
krazen1211
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« Reply #400 on: July 23, 2011, 01:42:58 pm »
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Conyers isn't going anywhere, he and Clarke will likely switch seats. Not that it matters much anyway, the seat still won't go Republican, so.....

It surely matters to the people of the ghettos of Detroit to have effective representation.

He has a challenger. Of course if they foreclose his home, Conyers might not even live in the state...

http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2011/07/john_conyers_to_face_challenge.html

U.S. Rep. John Conyers (D-Detroit), dean of the Congressional Black Caucus, will face a primary challenge from Sen. Bert Johnson (D-Highland Park), MIRS reports.
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« Reply #401 on: July 24, 2011, 01:17:59 pm »
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Johnson has my support.
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« Reply #402 on: July 24, 2011, 06:32:10 pm »
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Johnson is a pretty astute character. Conyers hasn't faced a real race in, well, eternity. I wouldn't be surprised if he did switch districts with Clarke as that is really his only option at this point.

Clarke does have aspirations to be Mayor of Detroit, however. I imagine that may be holding him back from giving in to Conyers for the moment.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #403 on: July 27, 2011, 09:03:10 am »
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1 opponent KOed.

http://www.battlecreekenquirer.com/article/20110727/NEWS01/307270013/Schauer-says-he-won-t-run-2012?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Frontpage

Schauer said this morning that the redistricting process, which moved Battle Creek into the 3rd Congressional District, held by Grand Rapids-area Republican Justin Amash, was a factor in his decision.
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Torie
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« Reply #404 on: August 06, 2011, 03:59:02 pm »
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The map has already been passed, but just for kicks I "improved" MI-09 a bit, slashing the Obama percentage down 1.3% from 58.1% to 56.8%.  MI-11 stays the same at 50.2% Obama. The Obama percentage in MI-10 goes up about close to 1% or so, which might be why it didn't happen. Candice Miller is one powerful lady, and if it is her doing, rather selfish to boot. Oh well. The games I played in Oakland, which do not affect MI-10 of course, are worth about 40-50 basis points. I guess the Pubbies decided doing just that was simply not worth their time.

The only changes were to give MI-09 all of Sterling Township, and Mt Clemens, while losing the most heavily Dem parts of Clinton Township, and in Oakland, MI-09 gets all of Clawson, while dropping Mt. Pleasant and Huntington Woods (which two little towns are 70%+ Obama country). MI-11 makes up what it lost in Clawson with a couple of tiny towns added next to Waterford Township, and two more precincts added in West Bloomfield township.

I was unable to excise Ferndale from MI-09 alas, without weakening MI-11, which is not acceptable. It could have been done if it were legal to cherry pick precincts to put in MI-11 from both Farmington and West Bloomfield townships, but alas it is not.

To excise Ferndale from MI-09 would require jiggling precincts around between the two black CD's, with MI-11 taking in Garden City in Wayne County, and losing some precincts in West Bloomfield. It would probably weaken MI-11 a little bit because some more GOP precincts in it in Oakland would need to be ceded to MI-09.

Map passed into law:



Torie's "improved" map:



« Last Edit: August 06, 2011, 08:28:02 pm by Torie »Logged
krazen1211
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« Reply #405 on: August 21, 2011, 10:19:15 pm »
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Hmph. Conyers has successfully elbowed out Hansen Clarke into the competitive (in a primary) district.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/61799.html

Rep. John Conyers (D-Mich.) avoided a perilous primary challenge Sunday when neighboring Rep. Hansen Clarke paved the way for the two Michigan Democrats to essentially swap congressional districts ahead of their reelection bids.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #406 on: September 07, 2011, 01:29:22 pm »
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Prophetic!

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/62834.html


Gary Peters to challenge Hansen Clarke in new Michigan district

Peters could make an announcement as early as this week. He’ll join a field that also includes Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence. With a profile that could play well in both Oakland County and the wealthy Grosse Point areas, Peters could benefit from a split black vote. His decision averts a much more difficult primary against longtime Rep. Sander Levin, after the two were drawn into the same district by Republicans
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« Reply #407 on: September 13, 2011, 03:28:50 am »
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So if Peters wins he would represent a majority black district? I guess this is his best chance since if he wins the primary the election is a sure thing. What is the Black %, it looks over 55%.  I'm kind of surprised he didn't challenge McCotter. Close to 2 hundred thousand voters of his old district is in it. Of course majority of them are republicans. McCotter (my congressman) never seemed like a strong candidate and kind of an oddball and has never seen a strong candidate. Still its a republican district.
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« Reply #408 on: September 14, 2011, 09:44:40 pm »
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What is the Black %, it looks over 55%.  

I never could find an official breakdown, but for the hell of it I re-created the new districts on Dave's app as best I could (The map where I got the new district boundaries had somewhat distorted dimensions and no zooming); here are my results:

First District: Obama 49.8, Republican 55.0, 92.1 white
Second District: McCain 50.3, Republican 63.4, 81.6 white
Third District: Obama 49.6, Republican 60.6, 79.9 white
Fourth District: Obama 49.7, Republican 57.9, 92.6 white
Fifth District: Obama 63.0, Democrat 56.2, 74.5 white
Sixth District: Obama 53.1, Republican 56.0, 82.2 white
Seventh District: Obama 50.7, Republican 57.2, 89.0 white
Eighth District: Obama 52.0, Republican 59.7, 89.7 white
Ninth District: Obama 58.0, Republican 50.3, 82.1 white
Tenth District: McCain 50.1, Republican 60.1, 91.3 white
Eleventh District: Obama 50.2, Republican 61.2, 82.2 white
Twelveth District: Obama 66.7, Democrat 57.6, 76.2 white
Thirteenth District: Obama 80.6, Democrat 70.4, 59.4 black
Fourteenth District: Obama 83.9, Democrat 74.8, 54.9 black
 
« Last Edit: September 14, 2011, 09:56:28 pm by lowtech redneck »Logged
krazen1211
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« Reply #409 on: December 08, 2011, 04:31:01 pm »
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And here comes the most amusing lawsuit of the cycle!

http://detnews.com/article/20111208/POLITICS02/112080460/Minority-groups-sue-to-block-state-redistricting-plan#ixzz1fyccjTLj

Minority advocacy groups have filed a lawsuit against Gov. Rick Snyder and the Michigan legislative redistricting plan for Detroit seats he signed into law in August.

The plan could cost Detroiters representation in Lansing as new district borders reach further into the suburbs. The group also took issue with southwest Detroit being split into two districts, lessening the opportunity for the Latino community to be fully represented, leaders said.





How amusing. The GOP draws a map that protects the Detroit reps despite massive population loss in Detroit and one that is quite favorable to the city as a whole.

Should have just packed the city into 3 Senate districts rather than 5.
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Torie
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« Reply #410 on: December 11, 2011, 05:33:46 pm »
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For the record, and future reference, here is the Michigan map all prettied up, Torie style. Smiley
The Pubs dropped 80 Pub basis points that could easily have been shoved into MI-09 without changing the partisan balance of MI-11, but whatever (MI-09 drops Ferndale, Huntington Woods and Mt. Pleasant to PA-14, picks up the rest of Clawson, and some of Troy from MI-11, and MI 11 picks up from PA-14 Garden City in Wayne County, with a two precinct cut into Westland to get there (one more town split, but only one between MI-14 and MI-11, so it should be legal).

There are no "red" CD's.  The Pubs could lose everything in Michigan in a Dem wave. Tongue  Michigan is not Ohio or Pennsylvania. Smiley





« Last Edit: December 11, 2011, 06:39:24 pm by Torie »Logged
BigSkyBob
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« Reply #411 on: December 13, 2011, 02:18:01 am »
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Of course it is a valid choice. The major highways such as I-96 run east-west, and the historical nature of the link sets precedent for it to be maintained. Partisanship is an obvious excuse as the seat has been held by a Democrat in recent years.

The point is that Livingston County has far more in common with points east than with points west, north, or south. To create a Livingston-based district with the best possible community of interest would require the district to pick up portions of Oakland County.

Ingham County also has far more in common with the rest of its Metropolitan area (Eaton, Clinton Counties, possibly Shiawassee) than it does with Livingston County. To create a Lansing-based district with the best possible community of interest would require Ingham, Eaton, and Clinton to be in the same district, and that Livingston County be excluded from that district.

For the billionth time, this is not a matter of partisanship. The discussion is on creating a map that best preserves communities of interest. The only partisanship involved is when your side hails a blatant Republican gerrymander as God's gift to redistricting, and then denounces a map that preserves communities of interest as a Democratic gerrymander.

It is a very natural extension of the Michigan transit corridors. The Stabenow district used to extend into Gennessee County. To protect the integrity of the Flint district, Michigan mappers properly removed the 8th from Gennessee altogether and added Clinton County.

Any natural Michigan mapping scheme will begin in the Detroit Region, and after the Detroit 2 and Oakland 2 districts are drawn, only limited population remained in Oakland County, and Livingston County. The natural extension from here based on television and transit corridors is of course west.

Is your map a legit community of interest as it swoops and swerves across numerous counties to rack up far away GOP voters? Of course not! To drive from Howell to Port Huron along the fastest route you would cross through a whopping 4 other Congressional districts before reaching your destination on the far other side of the district.

The other proposed maps have the same types of choices, such as uncompacting the square shaped 6th district to add Battle Creek. The Judge-written Apol standards were written as such knowing that some would tend to abuse curious 'community of interests' ideas and thus instead adhered to defined geographical boundaries. They were not considered 'unfair' until 1 party started losing.


Geographical boundries are fixed. Notions of "communities of interests" are highly subjective and subject to abuse. Excellent observation!

Apperently, I am being accused of inconsistency between this statement, and, my statement, that in practise, while discussing redistricting a "community of interest" is "an area that would benefit me to consolidate!"
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« Reply #412 on: December 19, 2011, 12:36:23 pm »
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OK, now that I have finally figured out how to draw a legal map in Michigan (something dpmapper mastered long ago (and probably he came up with the map below on his own to boot), but not yours truly), I have concluded that while the OH Pubs get an "A" for their map (the one flaw with OH-10 is explained by the Turner v. Austria issue), the MI Pubs don't get a passing grade.

Can anyone explain to me why the map below was not adopted?  Did the MI Pubs not really want to endanger Levin in MI-09 too much because of his seniority (and yes, draw him out of his home, but hey Mr. Levin, Clair Shores is a nice place to live, and your CD is now almost all in Macomb anyway)? Did Candice Miller (MI-10) not want to lose as much of northern Macomb as the map below, and/or not lose a Pub point (which she could afford to lose), because she's self centered?  Why, or why, I ask? I am sure the Pubs considered this map. I think we now know that in general, partisan gerrymanderers tend to be devilishly clever.

The map as I said is legal. I finally figured out how to make it legal for MI-09 to break into Wayne County and grab the Pointes suburbs (plus one precinct in Detroit itself Tongue).  There is one less cut in Oakland County, and one more in Wayne, and the cut in Tuscola was switched out in favor of Inghram County (of course Inghram County!).  So the number of county splits is unchanged from the map that was enacted. And a nice little bonus, is that the map actually looks better in Oakland, and MI-05 is less erose as well come to think of it. Sad.

Anyway, here is the map. The numbers speak for themselves as to why to the Pubs in Michigan porked the pooch.







« Last Edit: December 19, 2011, 02:36:54 pm by Torie »Logged
dpmapper
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« Reply #413 on: December 19, 2011, 01:26:13 pm »
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C'mon, Torie, where's the killer instinct?  Use water contiguity to take in Grosse Ile rather than Harper Woods!  Smiley

(Nice map.  I guess Mike Rogers must be really attached to Lansing, huh?) 
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« Reply #414 on: December 19, 2011, 01:34:29 pm »
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C'mon, Torie, where's the killer instinct?  Use water contiguity to take in Grosse Ile rather than Harper Woods!  Smiley

(Nice map.  I guess Mike Rogers must be really attached to Lansing, huh?)  

It's inexplicable really. I don't get it. If Rogers moves on, his CD will be at risk, particularly since Ingham no doubt will continue to steady trend Dem (government and higher education will remain growth industries, and Dem, until the sun uses up its hydrogen, and fries the earth in its death throws).  Yes, Muon2, I know some physics-like things, or is that more about chemistry?  Smiley

Oh, I forgot to append Orchard Lake Village to MI-11, leaving maybe 5 Pub basis points on the table. My bad. I think I will let that one go for now however. Tongue
« Last Edit: December 19, 2011, 01:36:12 pm by Torie »Logged
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« Reply #415 on: December 19, 2011, 01:42:14 pm »
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One could also argue that Livingston and northern Oakland are likely to grow with exurban population as well, I suppose.

You seem to have one too many city/township splits in Oakland Co, though - three split between three districts.  I think you need to only use two. 
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Torie
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« Reply #416 on: December 19, 2011, 02:28:36 pm »
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You seem to have one too many city/township splits in Oakland Co, though - three split between three districts.  I think you need to only use two.  

Really?  I only see two myself. Where is the third?  Tongue

God you're good at this dpmapper. You should hire yourself out as a consultant! Smiley This irritating little muni/township split law thing cost the Pubs 20 basis points. Heck, it is no longer even worth it for MI-11 to grab Orchard Lake now, since one has to suck up Pub unfriendly Keeoo Harbor to get there now. Sad
« Last Edit: December 19, 2011, 03:45:09 pm by Torie »Logged
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« Reply #417 on: December 19, 2011, 02:47:40 pm »
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Yeah, they probably figured they didn't need to split Lansing so why bother?
The way 14, 11 and 8 wrap around each other is pretty, in a way. Not that the real map doesn't include similarly obvious gerries.
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« Reply #418 on: December 19, 2011, 03:08:09 pm »
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Yeah, they probably figured they didn't need to split Lansing so why bother?
The way 14, 11 and 8 wrap around each other is pretty, in a way. Not that the real map doesn't include similarly obvious gerries.

Hi Lewis. Off topic, but in other news, just watch Mathis F the Pubs yet again in AZ. Stertz wanted to drop 20 Pub basis points from the Gifford's CD in Tuscon (AZ-02), and Pub up AZ-01 by 80 basis points. McNulty wanted to Pub up AZ-02 by 20 basis points, and Pub down AZ-01 by 20 basis points. Mathis said she is "thinking" of "merging" the two changes, meaning I suspect that yes, AZ-02 will be Pubbed up by 20 basis points, or a bit more, but instead of AZ-01 taking in highly Pub territory for what it loses in Pinal County, it will instead suck up more of the Sedona area where McNulty of course wanted to expand it, meaning that AZ-01 will be Pubbed down by maybe 50 basis points or more. Since if Giffords runs, AZ-02 will probably not be in play, while AZ-01 most certainly is given the map, you can see where she is going with this. You just watch. No rage hath a woman scorned, the Great Bard once wrote. So true.
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« Reply #419 on: December 19, 2011, 03:09:59 pm »
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Heh. I was wondering when we'd hear news from Arizona.
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« Reply #420 on: December 19, 2011, 05:08:40 pm »
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How did you split Ingham up, exactly?  I'm curious what district I'd've ended up in.
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« Reply #421 on: December 19, 2011, 05:34:50 pm »
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How did you split Ingham up, exactly?  I'm curious what district I'd've ended up in.

Your wish is my command - of course!  I did the map zoom in aerial format, the better to assist you. Cheers.

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« Reply #422 on: December 19, 2011, 05:49:54 pm »
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...so it's not continuous.
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« Reply #423 on: December 19, 2011, 05:55:08 pm »
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...so it's not continuous.

Nah BRTD, just empty county land is what you see with those little blue islands, so the precinct itself is not contiguous. If it is a problem, then the precincts need to be redrawn, and in fact do anyway, since some precincts don't hew to municipal lines,  and for CD's, that is a legal requirement.

If you study the Columbus, OH zoom, you will see more of these little islands, than exist in Indonesia, seemingly. The precincts there are a bigger mess than anywhere I have seen in the nation - they are just awful!
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« Reply #424 on: December 19, 2011, 07:47:47 pm »
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Does anyone have the Kerry-Bush results for the adopted new map? That would be a better measure in Michigan.
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