US House Redistricting: Michigan

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

District 8 is very far from continuous.

All of the districts are contiguous.  Obviously it's not a legal map, but I did obey contiguity and VRA laws.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How is it continuous? It's the non-coastal upper half of the lower peninsula plus a chunk of the thumb which is surrounded by District 5.

[BigSkyBob]

There is no question Michigan's current map is gerrymandered. Under the 1990s plan, Gore won 9 CD's to Bush's 7. Under the 2000s plan, Gore would have won 5 CD's to Bush's 10.

Anyone have the Kerry-Bush numbers for the new CD's? Obama-McCain isn't really a good measure in Michigan.

Alternately, those same facts suggest that the apportionment in the 1990's was gerrymandered to favor the Democrats, while the current map accurately reflects the fact that most of Michigan leans slightly Republican.

Yes, the Republican-controlled Senate and John Engler gerrymandered in favor of the Democrats...

And until 2010, the state didn't really lean Republican.  We elect Republicans to some offices, but as a whole, the state tends to lean Democratic.  This does change from district to district though.

Again, my claim isn't that Michigan, as a whole, leans Republican. The claim I made is that Michigan consists of the few areas with heavy concentration of Democrats, and the rest that leans Republican. That is, Democrats are "packed," while Republicans aren't.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

There is no question Michigan's current map is gerrymandered. Under the 1990s plan, Gore won 9 CD's to Bush's 7. Under the 2000s plan, Gore would have won 5 CD's to Bush's 10.

Anyone have the Kerry-Bush numbers for the new CD's? Obama-McCain isn't really a good measure in Michigan.

Alternately, those same facts suggest that the apportionment in the 1990's was gerrymandered to favor the Democrats, while the current map accurately reflects the fact that most of Michigan leans slightly Republican.

Yes, the Republican-controlled Senate and John Engler gerrymandered in favor of the Democrats...

And until 2010, the state didn't really lean Republican.  We elect Republicans to some offices, but as a whole, the state tends to lean Democratic.  This does change from district to district though.

Again, my claim isn't that Michigan, as a whole, leans Republican. The claim I made is that Michigan consists of the few areas with heavy concentration of Democrats, and the rest that leans Republican. That is, Democrats are "packed," while Republicans aren't.

That's how most states are though.  Just because the Republican-leaning land mass is greater than the land mass of the Democrat-leaning areas doesn't mean you can gerrymander the crap out of the state to "reflect" this.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

How is it continuous? It's the non-coastal upper half of the lower peninsula plus a chunk of the thumb which is surrounded by District 5.

Oops!  I was thinking those were 2 separate districts.  I'm surprised the softwre didn't catch that.  Fixing those now!

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

All fied - although you may have to refresh to get rid of any cached images.  Now that that's fixed, District 5 doesn't look quite so bad wacky either.  Thanks for cathching that, BRTD!

[Brittain33]

LOL at that coastal district. Very creative.

[ilikeverin]

Haha, I love the grey district

[krazen1211]

What do I see? The Dem map.

http://hosted.ap.org/specials/interactives/_documents/mich_redistricting.pdf

Livingston County paired with Lansing.

Oakland County cut 5 ways.

Not even 1 district entirely within Wayne County.

Oakland to Macomb double cross.

[Linus Van Pelt]

What do I see?

http://hosted.ap.org/specials/interactives/_documents/mich_redistricting.pdf

Livingston County paired with Lansing.

Oakland County cut 5 ways.

Not even 1 district entirely within Wayne County.

Oakland to Macomb double cross.

What map is that?

[krazen1211]

Ah, I missed the headline. This is the Democratic proposed map for Michigan Congressional redistricting.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

What do I see? The Dem map.

http://hosted.ap.org/specials/interactives/_documents/mich_redistricting.pdf

Livingston County paired with Lansing.

Oakland County cut 5 ways.

Not even 1 district entirely within Wayne County.

Oakland to Macomb double cross.

That's almost as bad as the Republican map. In fact, in some places, it's worse.

[Torie]

It is a joke map, and appears as illegal as hell. But I guess they wanted to make Levin feel good or something.

[ilikeverin]

What do I see? The Dem map.

http://hosted.ap.org/specials/interactives/_documents/mich_redistricting.pdf

Livingston County paired with Lansing.

Oakland County cut 5 ways.

Not even 1 district entirely within Wayne County.

Oakland to Macomb double cross.

That's almost as bad as the Republican map. In fact, in some places, it's worse.

Yeah, that's a fail.  They seem to have copied literally all of the outstate regions from the Republican map.  Classy.

Well, hey, underscores why MI Dems are often just as bad as MI Reps.  I'm glad I voted Green for Governor

What's going on their in their MI-12 and MI-15?  Did they just decide to use two identical colors next to each other?

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

What do I see? The Dem map.

http://hosted.ap.org/specials/interactives/_documents/mich_redistricting.pdf

Livingston County paired with Lansing.

Oakland County cut 5 ways.

Not even 1 district entirely within Wayne County.

Oakland to Macomb double cross.

That's almost as bad as the Republican map. In fact, in some places, it's worse.

Yeah, that's a fail.  They seem to have copied literally all of the outstate regions from the Republican map.  Classy.

Well, hey, underscores why MI Dems are often just as bad as MI Reps.  I'm glad I voted Green for Governor

What's going on their in their MI-12 and MI-15?  Did they just decide to use two identical colors next to each other?

There's is at least athsetically better.

[krazen1211]

What do I see? The Dem map.

http://hosted.ap.org/specials/interactives/_documents/mich_redistricting.pdf

Livingston County paired with Lansing.

Oakland County cut 5 ways.

Not even 1 district entirely within Wayne County.

Oakland to Macomb double cross.

That's almost as bad as the Republican map. In fact, in some places, it's worse.

Yeah, that's a fail.  They seem to have copied literally all of the outstate regions from the Republican map.  Classy.

Well, hey, underscores why MI Dems are often just as bad as MI Reps.  I'm glad I voted Green for Governor

What's going on their in their MI-12 and MI-15?  Did they just decide to use two identical colors next to each other?

No, there is no MI-15.

[ilikeverin]

What do I see? The Dem map.

http://hosted.ap.org/specials/interactives/_documents/mich_redistricting.pdf

Livingston County paired with Lansing.

Oakland County cut 5 ways.

Not even 1 district entirely within Wayne County.

Oakland to Macomb double cross.

That's almost as bad as the Republican map. In fact, in some places, it's worse.

Yeah, that's a fail.  They seem to have copied literally all of the outstate regions from the Republican map.  Classy.

Well, hey, underscores why MI Dems are often just as bad as MI Reps.  I'm glad I voted Green for Governor

What's going on their in their MI-12 and MI-15?  Did they just decide to use two identical colors next to each other?

No, there is no MI-15.

So they just put the number 15 on the maps for funsies?  Ooookay.

[dpmapper]

All this Lansing talk gave me an idea.
 



If the GOP gets super ambitious, and still feels they can get away with one extra county split with a black district going from Wayne to the north, and McCotter is retiring, then here's a 10-4, with all 10 GOP seats between 48.5 and 51.5% Obama.  

Blue Northern Michigan: 49.9-48.3 O-M (Benishek)
Lavender Midland/Bay City: 50.3-47.9 O-M (Camp)
Red Holland/Muskegon: 48.5-49.9 O-M (Huizenga)
Purple Grand Rapids: 51.3-47.0 O-M (Amash)
Teal Kalamazoo: 51.5-46.9 O-M (Upton)
Lime Green southern seat: 49.4-48.8 O-M (Walberg)
Green thumb: 51.2-46.9 O-M (open)
Bluish gray St Clair/Macomb: 51.4-46.8 O-M (Miller)
Pink Oakland County: 50.8-47.6 O-M (Knollenberg to challenge Peters)
Grey Livingston County/Livonia/southern Wayne: 51.3-47.0 O-M (Rogers)

Levin and Dingell are both drawn into the tan district which is 54% black; the brown district is 53.5% black.  The yellow Lansing/Ann Arbor seat is wide open.  

Now that McCotter is definitely going for Pres I revisited this and did a bit of rejiggering (such as finding a way to give the Flint district less of upper Oakland and more of Farmington Hills, and putting the GOP parts of Dearborn into the grey district).  The basic map is still there but the new percentages are

Blue Northern Michigan: 50.1 Obama (Benishek)
Lavender Midland/Bay City: 50.1 Obama (Camp)
Red Holland/Muskegon: 50.2 Obama (Huizenga)
Purple Grand Rapids: 50.6 Obama (Amash)
Teal Kalamazoo: 50.8 Obama (Upton)
Lime Green southern seat: 49.4 Obama (Walberg)
Green thumb: 51.2 Obama (open)
Bluish gray St Clair/Macomb: 51.0 Obama (Miller)
Pink Oakland County: 50.7 Obama (Knollenberg to challenge Peters/Levin)
Grey Livingston County/Livonia/southern Wayne: 50.8 Obama (Rogers, possibly Dingell?)

So they're all +2 or +3 R in PVI, not that ugly, almost-minimal county splits, and, apart from the red district, the lime green district, and (especially) the thumb district, pretty good as far as COIs go.  

[krazen1211]

Hopefully this might be the end of Conyers.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0711/59589.html

Combine that with a political class starting to tire of having the same representative for decades and a bevy of talent waiting in the wings, Democratic strategists say, and you’ve got the makings of a serious primary challenge.

“He can’t win that seat,” longtime Detroit Democratic consultant Adolph Mongo said.

“The question is still out if he’s even going to run in that new district,” said Democratic strategist Steve Hood.




I suppose he can just take the threatening route.


http://www.freep.com/article/20110622/NEWS06/110622011/With-maps-State-Senate-panel-approves-revamped-Michigan-districts

“The map you submitted is causing warfare in the city of Detroit,” said state Sen. Virgil Smith, D-Detroit.

[dpmapper]

I don't know... I think I'd rather have Conyers than Fieger.  *shudder*

[DrScholl]

Conyers isn't going anywhere, he and Clarke will likely switch seats. Not that it matters much anyway, the seat still won't go Republican, so.....

[RBH]

remind me to never hire the pollster who thinks Geoffrey Fieger could win a Congressional seat

[Torie]

Yet another awesome map dpmapper, and I see you have mastered the Garden City trick.    But per my eyes, I don't see any of Dearborn in the gray CD.  Is the county split count as low as your effort before the GOP map came out that seemed to not be as paranoid about it as we were?

[dpmapper]

That's because I didn't post the updated map.  Here's a pic of it:



No touch-point contiguity is needed for the Flint-Pontiac connection, even though it kind of looks that way.  There is one more county split between Wayne and Monroe/Oakland than is necessary, as in the real map. 

[Torie]

Has McCotter committed not to run for his House seat even if his POTUS campaign stalls?