US House Redistricting: Michigan

[krazen1211]

Detroit's population has fallen to 713,000; Wayne County's to 1.8 million. This means only one VRA district equal to the city of Detroit. How does this change the maps?

Conyers should finally get crunched rather than Peters or Levin. More likely they just keep pushing the Detroit districts further into the suburbs.

[krazen1211]

I don't see how they justify two Detroit districts. And if you go down to one Detroit district, then Ann Arbor is no longer in with Dingell, and you have a lot of Democrats in Macomb and Oakland who don't really fit into a single district. I am curious what happens.

I'm thinking 1 district for Macomb Democrats, 1 district for Oakland Democrats, 1 district for Ann Arbor, 1 district for Detroit, and 1 district for everything else in Wayne County that McCotter doesn't want.


That Detroit district might displace NY-16 as the new Mordor.

[krazen1211]

Where does the Ann Arbor district go after it fills up on Washtenaw? It would need nearly 400,000 other people. That, coincidentally, is the population left over in Wayne County after you allocate it two districts.

On edit: Wayne + Washtenaw = 2,165,000.  
Three districts = about 2,130,000.

That post was a brainfart, so ignore it. I miscounted.

That math doesn't work because the GOP wants to salvage the good parts of Wayne County.

Actually, I see your problem now. If you can only cross Wayne > Oakland once (and that has to be McCotter), drawing the other Dem districts does become a bit problematic no matter how you slice it. Moving Monroe County out of Dingell's district and putting Ann Arbor college kids in with inner city Detroit is a nice f u possibility.


I would love to see the 98% Obama detroit pack at least floated. Michigan isn't a preclearance state and it makes sense from a community of interest perspective.

[krazen1211]

Calling Torie! We need the Michigan 4 district plan:

1. Detroit
2. Warren to Pontiac
3. Flint, Saginaw, Lansing
4. Mexicantown to Ann Arbor


Can this be done?


Edit: I started poking closer at Torie's plan.

1. I'm not sure as to the legality of the double split of the Oakland/Wayne border. I think its moot, though. Dumping all of Detroit into CD-13 solves that issue.

2. That opens up CD-14, which can cross into Macomb and grab Warren, and a couple other neighboring towns. That should push the Macomb CD up a couple points in PVI; Bush won Macomb county as a whole.

This is my concept map:

[krazen1211]

Ugh, this is going to be a challenge.

I see where you are finally coming from. In order to get 2 black districts you're going to have to round up Pontiac blacks, Southfield blacks, Inkster blacks, and Detroit blacks, which total up to about 900k or so per the new data, and  you're going to use that to quad chop Wayne (and double traverse the Wayne Oakland border) rather than tri-chop.

It still seems to me like you can shove a Detroit district into Warren and grab 100k voters. Macomb population is about 802k, so it has to be split somewhere, and you might as well grab out the most Democratic voters in the south edge of the county.

One of the Pointes has a precinct in Macomb County. Poor guys don't deserve to be stuck with the Detroit districts year after year; I hate the idea of letting good Pubbies drown.

[krazen1211]

The Pointe that has a precinct in Macomb is Gross Pointe Shores.  It was two separate townships in 2000.  It incorporated as a city during the past decade.  Its population is relatively small, though - about 3,000.

Michigan has a few other cities that straddled county lines in 2000.  Are there special rules for cities that straddle county lines?  Can they be placed in either county, or do they need to be broken up?

In theory, when the 2 provisions conflict, I suppose I'd just pick the one that favors the GOP more.

[krazen1211]

Trivia question: What is the size of the largest precinct in Detroit that gave McCain 0 votes?

For the record, Obama got 325,534 votes in Detroit City. McCain got 8,888.


That analogy actually works well. The elves after all were fleeing Rivendell.

If I were the Michigan GOP I would just change the law to allow more county splits in and adjacent to Wayne County. You need it to protect Detroit's black districts anyway.

[krazen1211]

Oh God, I am getting an orgasm over that map. Perfecto! That is just what I wanted to see.

If the pubbies can cross 1 black district into Oakland, and 1 into Macomb, this becomes very easy. If you can cross into 1 or the other, better to cross into Macomb, and plop a full CD in Oakland.

What kind of 2 district plan in Wayne alone has 50% black VAP on both districts? Please post! Like Torie said better an additional county crossing than a slash and burn.



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[krazen1211]

I just checked, and I was able to make two 50% Black VAP districts in Wayne alone. They are both just barely over 50% and follow city lines as needed. However, I like the idea of reaching the two districts separately into Macomb and Oakland as I suggested last Sep.

Can you cross a black district into Oakland while also crossing the McCotter district into Oakland?

[krazen1211]

Which statement worries you? If it is the first - then here's the map I drew for Wayne.



On the second point, to make the map legal depends on the value of putting parts of Macomb with Wayne vs reaching the Macomb district into the Grosse Pointes. It looked to me last fall that the former was better, but you have better precinct numbers now.

How do you remove Monroe County from the Dingell district with that map?

[krazen1211]

On the second point, to make the map legal depends on the value of putting parts of Macomb with Wayne vs reaching the Macomb district into the Grosse Pointes. It looked to me last fall that the former was better, but you have better precinct numbers now.

It looks like this map has 2 cities split between CD-13 and CD-14 (Detroit and Dearborn Heights), and 2 cities split between CD-14 and CD-9 (Southgate and Lincoln Park).

I guess county crossings do take priority over township crossings in the statute though.

[krazen1211]

Why the need for two districts reaching up into the suburbs? As long as the Black parts of Oakland County are in one of those districts, it can also pick up a chunk of Macomb and then the rest is composed of Detroit. So only one Black district goes into the suburbs, as well as Mcotter's.

I don't  think that works too well. For one, that kind of district obviously crosses 3 counties. Second, the Macomb portion has to be about 200k people (Warren + Eastpointe + a couple other towns), and when you tack on Southfield + Pontiac + other in the way towns, what exactly do you do with places that are lean Dem (Farmington, Auburn Hills)?

Earlier I posted the map of only crossing into Macomb; this is what happens when you cross only into
Oakland. The good news is that both districts cross 55% black VAP which often people like Conyers want; it also gives Dearborn back to its rightful owner.

 The bad news is that the skyblue district (12) is 65k people short and I have no idea where to move it, and that McCotter's district becomes Oakland County dominated which he may not want.

Dumping the Pointes into a Dem district would solve that problem, but the GOP probably doesn't want to do that; I have to look up the areas surrounding Ann Arbor and see how liberal they are (Pittsfield).

[krazen1211]

Whee, that salmon district is ugly. Besides, aren't you conceding the Dems an extra 0.5 seats compared to Torie's old map? Or is the Flint/Saginaw district unnecessary now?

No, Flint/Saginaw/Lansing remains the same, so yeah, it does concede a 5th seat, at least under this configuration. That 12th district would be Democratic; I suspect though that between the green and pink districts taking on some more Democrats, that blue 12th could become a tossup (perhaps for Knollenberg Jr)? I would put West Bloomfield into the green 11th, and some of Mount Clemonts/Roseville into the 10th, and put Troy and some north Oakland areas into the 12th).

The salmon district is split ugly like that with the gold district to even out the black %. Those districts are 55.6/56% AA. If Conyers want to grab a 60% AA district and shaft Clarke by giving him only 50-51% AA, the split becomes cleaner.


I think though its important that the Macomb district not be marginal. Candace Miller has more ties to Macomb than the rest of the thumb, and I presume she would run in the Macomb dominated district.

[krazen1211]

Also is washtenaw pretty Republican outside ann arbor? I find krazens map to be intriguing. You can make it look nicer but he has the right idea.

It just can't be that Republican... AA has only 1/3 of the county's population but the county votes almost as Democratic as Wayne does, or at least it did in 2008. Putting the rest of Washtenaw and Monroe in the 7th district could make Walberg's job tougher.

Monroe isn't too bad; in 2010 they voted against Dingell pretty heavily, so they're at least willing to contemplate voting Republican.

In 2010, Washtentaw voted for Dingell 55k to 25k; Ann Arbor provided 20k of that margin. Ypilsanti provided another 8k; the rest of it could be moved to the 7h somewhat safely.


Here is the Muon-2 map; where both black districts enter the suburban counties.





There could be too many county splits here, and McCotter and Miller get some more Dem territory, but the 12th (skyblue) becomes a district that Knollenberg Jr. could do somewhat well in.

At least 1 county split could easily be eliminated that I see.

[krazen1211]

Whee, that salmon district is ugly. Besides, aren't you conceding the Dems an extra 0.5 seats compared to Torie's old map? Or is the Flint/Saginaw district unnecessary now?

I might add that suburban black population has exploded in places like Farmington Hills, Warren, and Roseville in the last decade even as the overall population has declined, and the white population here has plummeted. Overall, it seems worth it to concede a 4th district in the Detroit metro if you can keep those areas out of a Republican district.

Pigs get fat, and hogs get slaughtered, right?

I took your advice and cleaned up the CD-13/14 split.



CD-13 is down to 51.1% black VAP, CD-14 is up to 60.6%. Sander Levin can easily clean up in the new CD-12 (sky blue) although he can't act like a crazy liberal by any means. Truthfully given his seniority the Michigan GOP probably shouldn't take a shot in the dark and try to get rid of him, anyway.

[krazen1211]

I don't normally read Swing State Project, but I've started to look a little bit at some of their redistricting threads, and it seems to be the opinion over there that the Michigan law prohibits two districts from crossing over the same pair of counties. Notice that the current map does abide by this constraint - while there are lots of county splits that might seem unnecessary from a certain angle, there is no pair of counties which both have the same two districts in them.

Does anyone have any evidence as to whether this is how things are actually interpreted in Lansing? If it is, then contrary to what we have been assuming, you can't have two districts in both Wayne and Oakland, one for McCotter and one for Conyers or Clarke.

I actually expect that part of the statute to be amended to allow for such in Wayne County, if its needed, mostly because 2 districts entirely in Wayne are almost certain not to be majority black by the end of the decade. Heck, they might not even be majority black now.

[krazen1211]

Iteration 1.

[krazen1211]

here are my proposed lines. They are fairly similar to the old lines and still compact.

What exactly are you trying to accomplish with that map? It's not a GOP gerrymander for sure, and its not a Democratic gerrymander; I'm trying to figure out why you would split Detroit 3 ways and then move Ann Arbor into a GOP district.

[krazen1211]

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-ap-mi-ushouse-knollenbe,0,3040370.story


TROY, Mich.— Republican state Rep. Marty Knollenberg says he's running for Congress in a district now held by Gary Peters, who unseated Knollenberg's father.



Sigh, this is not looking that great. It's much safer to try to condense the Democrats to 5 (giving Sander Levin all the Dem trending areas in Macomb/Oakland that don't fit elsewhere), rather than 4 (eliminating Levin and converting Peters's district into a Republican one)

[krazen1211]

This one is solid. Other than Lansing not being in the Flint district, and I really wish they could have liberated the Pointes from being represented by some nutter from Detroit.

[krazen1211]

Pretty sure the Sander Levin district drops to about 52-53% Kerry or so, and 59% Obama. It dropped its best portions.

[krazen1211]

Pretty sure the Sander Levin district drops to about 52-53% Kerry or so, and 59% Obama. It dropped its best portions.

It lost Southfield, but picked up Pontiac, and some marginally Dem areas in Macomb. It's Dem PVI is not going to drop that much.  

Doesn't look like it; Pontiac is in the black district. Bloomfield is in the Levin district.

Or am I seeing things?

I calculated the Macomb portion with the Macomb SoS data. Problem is the normally excellent Michigan SoS website is broken.

[krazen1211]

Look again, Torie - Pontiac is in the 14th.  The parts of Macomb it picked up are in Sterling Heights, so roughly even.  If the goal is to make 9 swingier, I'd tweak the border with MI-11 a bit.  MI-11 was already quite safe and they've made it safer by adding the rest of the thumb, so you could put Mt. Clemens and other parts of SE Macomb into MI-11 quite easily.  

MI-10 I assume you mean?

I believe that would force Troy into the 9th, which is a nonstarter if Knollenberg Jr. wants the McCotter district. Otherwise, the 9th picks up areas from that new 14th, which would make it more Dem, not less.

[krazen1211]

One little flaw in the ointment is the area I put X's over in Oakland. The three burbs plus the south end of Royal Oak where Levin actually lives are small, but totally toxic to the GOP. Ferndale for example is where BRTD would live if he lived in the Detroit metro area. Enough said.

It would be controversial for sure, but if I was the GOP, I would put the Pointes in the Levin district and move those 3 suburbs into the black district.

[krazen1211]

MI-09, the Levin CD, is more Dem rather than less?  Are you sure Johnny?

That's less Dem than MI-12, which it basically is. Makes sense as it drops blacks.

What is the PVI of a Flint to Lansing Connection?