European Union Expansion by 2020

[Frodo]

Dark Blue: Current EU member-states (Croatia is scheduled to formally join in 2013)

Blue: Candidates (Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia, Iceland, Turkey)

Aquamarine: includes countries that have applied (Albania) and those that are still potential candidates but have not yet submitted an application (Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo).

[The Mikado]

Croatia, Iceland, and Macedonia, in that order.  Bringing the club to an even 30.  That's my prediction for the 2020s.

[Verily]

Croatia and Iceland: 2012
Macedonia: 2014
Montenegro and Albania: 2018

[Formerly Californian Tony]

Croatia, Iceland and Macedonia. I doubt they will manage to expand anywhere else.

[London Man]

Croatia, Iceland and Macedonia. I doubt they will manage to expand anywhere else.

I agree, with the addition of Montenegro. Still not the consensus needed to admit Turkey by any means.

[dialectical fetishist]

Croatia and Macedonia.

[Tender Branson]

Croatia and Iceland by 2013.

Then a long pause.

Turkey probably in the year 2189 or so.

[GMantis]

Croatia and Iceland by 2012-2013.
Macedonia and Montenegro by the end of decade, but that's less likely.

[Platypus]

Croatia very soon. Iceland, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Albania all possibilities but I'd suggest none by 2020 excpet Iceland as a 50/50.

[Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay]

Croatia would be the most likely soon, yes.

But then, what a fooog for the future of what the hell could EU become, then about its possible expansions...

[True Federalist]

Croatia maybe, but unless the EU has changed its unanimous consent rule to join, we're not going to see any other expansions in this decade.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Croatia and Iceland will be in within the next 5 years. Macedonia and Montenegro will be in by the end of the decade. Albania is also possible but less likely. Serbia and Kosovo won't get in until they resolve their disputes and Kosovo is universally recognized and admitted to the UN, which I don't see happening this decade.

Anyone who said Turkey doesn't understand Turkey or the EU.

[memphis]

Lol@norway and switzerland. Too good to be in "europe"

[True Federalist]

Lol@norway and switzerland. Too good to be in "europe"

Not a case of being too good, but that it would be extremely stupid for either of them.  Norway would get screwed royally if its waters were part of the Common Fisheries Policy and its waters opened up to European trawlers.  Plus they'd have to use the same technicality that Sweden has used to avoid joining the Eurozone, that of not being a member of the ERM II for two years, as the Norwegian krone more than meets all of the other requirements that would force them to adopt the Euro.

[patrick1]

Lol@norway and switzerland. Too good to be in "europe"

Not a case of being too good, but that it would be extremely stupid for either of them.  Norway would get screwed royally if its waters were part of the Common Fisheries Policy and its waters opened up to European trawlers.  Plus they'd have to use the same technicality that Sweden has used to avoid joining the Eurozone, that of not being a member of the ERM II for two years, as the Norwegian krone more than meets all of the other requirements that would force them to adopt the Euro.

Norway stays out for oil related reasons also, right? Further, the Swiss get to keep prying eyes away from their shady banks.

[memphis]

Lol@norway and switzerland. Too good to be in "europe"

Not a case of being too good, but that it would be extremely stupid for either of them.  Norway would get screwed royally if its waters were part of the Common Fisheries Policy and its waters opened up to European trawlers.  Plus they'd have to use the same technicality that Sweden has used to avoid joining the Eurozone, that of not being a member of the ERM II for two years, as the Norwegian krone more than meets all of the other requirements that would force them to adopt the Euro.

Norway stays out for oil related reasons also, right? Further, the Swiss get to keep prying eyes away from their shady banks.

In other words, they're too good to be in "europe."

[Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay]

Further, the Swiss get to keep prying eyes away from their shady banks.

Well, the 2 systems might not be exactly the same, but Luxembourg is in the EU. And for example they are already part of Schengen (not of EU's Customs Union though), I would think it's more psychological reasons for them, and the fact they don't want an external parliament dictating them some conditions in their very-participative democracy too maybe.

[phwezer]

Croatia and Iceland. Maybe Macedonia after a pause.

[Frodo]

With Mladic going to the Hague, and presumably Goran Hadzic right behind him, what does everyone now think of Serbia's chances of joining the European Union? 

[True Federalist]

With Mladic going to the Hague, and presumably Goran Hadzic right behind him, what does everyone now think of Serbia's chances of joining the European Union? 

It improves them, but I doubt they will be a member by 2020.

Croatia is the only one likely to be a member by then.

Iceland might have been stampeded into joining if the length of time it takes to become a member wasn't so long.  By the time the EU decides it is willing to accept Iceland, I think Iceland will have resumed thinking they don't want to join.

Montenegro and Bosnia will likely be members by 2030, with Serbia possibly as well, but the language issue will likely be a thorny one. (I.e., are there four languages there, four dialects of Serbo-Croatian, or some mixture of the two endpoints.)

There is also the Kosova issue to be settled before Serbia and Kosova join.

The Greeks will continue to hold Macedonian membership hostage to the name issue.

[Sam Spade]

Does anyone think that the fact that at least 4, if not 5 countries, at minimium, are going to have to be kicked out of the monetary part of this Union (i.e. the euro) before 2020 in order for said monetary part to survive, will have an impact on the expansion in the European Union itself?

[Yelnoc]

Does anyone think that the fact that at least 4, if not 5 countries, at minimium, are going to have to be kicked out of the monetary part of this Union (i.e. the euro) before 2020 in order for said monetary part to survive, will have an impact on the expansion in the European Union itself?

From an economic common sense standpoint; yes.  However, I think that the political will for a United Europe is too strong for little things like economic sense to stand in the way.  That all changes, of course, if Greece defaults.

[hawkeye59]

I don't know much about the EU, but I assume the reason Iceland hasn't joined yet is because of the fisheries, considering Iceland is one of the most fish-producing nations in the world?

[King]

Why is Switzerland always such a loner? Did it get picked on  as a child?

[Sam Spade]

Does anyone think that the fact that at least 4, if not 5 countries, at minimium, are going to have to be kicked out of the monetary part of this Union (i.e. the euro) before 2020 in order for said monetary part to survive, will have an impact on expansion in the Union itself?

From an economic common sense standpoint; yes.  However, I think that the political will for a United Europe is too strong for little things like economic sense to stand in the way.  That all changes, of course, if Greece defaults.

Greece will default, technically (they may term it restructuring or whatever, but it will be "default" for the language on the debt).  It is a guarantee, and since there are few guarantees in this world, it should not be ignored.  And it will occur before 2020 (long before).  Portugal, Spain, Ireland and (probably) Italy are on the same path, but none as quick as Greece.

With that in mind, I ask the same question again.