European Union Expansion by 2030
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Poll
Question: Which of the following countries do you see joining the EU by the end of the next decade?
#1
Serbia
 
#2
Montenegro
 
#3
Macedonia
 
#4
Kosovo
 
#5
Albania
 
#6
Iceland
 
#7
Turkey
 
#8
Bosnia/Herzegovina
 
#9
NOTA
 
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Total Voters: 47

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Author Topic: European Union Expansion by 2030  (Read 22181 times)
2952-0-0
exnaderite
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« Reply #25 on: May 29, 2011, 09:23:28 PM »

Does anyone think that the fact that at least 4, if not 5 countries, at minimium, are going to have to be kicked out of the monetary part of this Union (i.e. the euro) before 2020 in order for said monetary part to survive, will have an impact on the expansion in the European Union itself?

I doubt the ECB will let themselves lose face by allowing any Eurozone members to officially drop out of the zone. But look the other way as some countries introduce unofficial units of account (leaving the Eurozone by stealth) in order to speed up the internal devaluation they need, perhaps.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #26 on: May 30, 2011, 12:05:35 AM »

Does anyone think that the fact that at least 4, if not 5 countries, at minimium, are going to have to be kicked out of the monetary part of this Union (i.e. the euro) before 2020 in order for said monetary part to survive, will have an impact on the expansion in the European Union itself?

I doubt the ECB will let themselves lose face by allowing any Eurozone members to officially drop out of the zone. But look the other way as some countries introduce unofficial units of account (leaving the Eurozone by stealth) in order to speed up the internal devaluation they need, perhaps.

That will be viewed as default by the credit markets.
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Beet
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« Reply #27 on: May 30, 2011, 01:42:19 AM »

I don't see any limit to the contagion once it gets started. Greece's default will spread to Ireland and Portugal's yields, and these will spread to Spain, and these will spread to Italy, and these will spread to France and Belgium, both of whose yields widened late last year. Sovereign debt contagion will spread until the point where there is demonstrated political will to make sovereign debt whole.

The ECB could depreciate the euro and use the proceeds to buy government bonds of afflicted countries. The German economy would be overstimulated by a cheaper euro, to avoid putting the entire currency union at risk by having something like Spain, for instance, be forced out. However the people in charge of Europe's institutions are ultra orthodox in their outlook and this kind of talk is heresy.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #28 on: May 30, 2011, 03:53:21 AM »

Lol@norway and switzerland. Too good to be in "europe"

Not a case of being too good, but that it would be extremely stupid for either of them.  Norway would get screwed royally if its waters were part of the Common Fisheries Policy and its waters opened up to European trawlers.  Plus they'd have to use the same technicality that Sweden has used to avoid joining the Eurozone, that of not being a member of the ERM II for two years, as the Norwegian krone more than meets all of the other requirements that would force them to adopt the Euro.

Norway stays out for oil related reasons also, right? Further, the Swiss get to keep prying eyes away from their shady banks.
In other words, they're too good to be in "europe."

No, they're too smart to be in the EU. Nothing strange with that.

My prediction is Iceland unless they change their mind and don't want to and Croatia. Wouldn't Greece stop Macedonia?
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Franzl
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« Reply #29 on: May 30, 2011, 05:03:54 AM »

It's a shame that only Norway and Switzerland were smart enough...
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afleitch
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« Reply #30 on: May 30, 2011, 09:48:28 AM »

I would argue that Romania, Bulgaria and Slovakia shouldn't have been let in.
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Frodo
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« Reply #31 on: May 30, 2011, 11:38:15 AM »

Lol@norway and switzerland. Too good to be in "europe"

Not a case of being too good, but that it would be extremely stupid for either of them.  Norway would get screwed royally if its waters were part of the Common Fisheries Policy and its waters opened up to European trawlers.  Plus they'd have to use the same technicality that Sweden has used to avoid joining the Eurozone, that of not being a member of the ERM II for two years, as the Norwegian krone more than meets all of the other requirements that would force them to adopt the Euro.

Norway stays out for oil related reasons also, right? Further, the Swiss get to keep prying eyes away from their shady banks.
In other words, they're too good to be in "europe."

No, they're too smart to be in the EU. Nothing strange with that.

It's a shame that only Norway and Switzerland were smart enough...

What's with all this hostility to the European Union? Do you really wish to return to the Westphalian system of independent competing nation-states that ultimately led to the First and Second World Wars?  
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Franzl
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« Reply #32 on: May 30, 2011, 11:55:16 AM »

You're seriously claiming the only way to avoid a future World War in Europe is by surrendering political power to Brussels? Really?
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #33 on: May 30, 2011, 12:02:20 PM »

Lol@norway and switzerland. Too good to be in "europe"

Not a case of being too good, but that it would be extremely stupid for either of them.  Norway would get screwed royally if its waters were part of the Common Fisheries Policy and its waters opened up to European trawlers.  Plus they'd have to use the same technicality that Sweden has used to avoid joining the Eurozone, that of not being a member of the ERM II for two years, as the Norwegian krone more than meets all of the other requirements that would force them to adopt the Euro.

Norway stays out for oil related reasons also, right? Further, the Swiss get to keep prying eyes away from their shady banks.
In other words, they're too good to be in "europe."

No, they're too smart to be in the EU. Nothing strange with that.

It's a shame that only Norway and Switzerland were smart enough...

What's with all this hostility to the European Union? Do you really wish to return to the Westphalian system of independent competing nation-states that ultimately led to the First and Second World Wars?  

I'm pretty sure we would not see another European war simply because the EU wasn't there. Personally I support the common market, but I don't see why that means we need to give up our soverinty and national powers to an undemocrtic beurocracy. Why should France decide all of Europes agricultural policy, Germany all economic policy, and Britain all anti-terror policy and so on.  
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Frodo
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« Reply #34 on: May 30, 2011, 12:03:04 PM »

You're seriously claiming the only way to avoid a future World War in Europe is by surrendering political power to Brussels? Really?

I do -from my perspective, the European Union has helped immensely as a pacifying force, which was the main reason it (or at least its predecessors) was founded.  You don't see France, Britain, and Germany contemplating war against one another, do you?  The only areas of conflict in Europe that we have seen since the end of the Cold War have been in the Balkans, which (with the exception of Slovenia) are still outside the European Union.  And the main protagonist in those conflicts has been Serbia.  
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #35 on: May 30, 2011, 12:12:07 PM »

The Coal and Steal Union was an agreement that would keep one of the two countries (France and Germany) from secretly starting to produce more of the two itims in order to start war on eachother. That has nothing to do with European relations today.

That's like claiming NAFTA is the reason USA, Canada, and Mexico isn't bombing the $hit out of eachother right now. 
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Insula Dei
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« Reply #36 on: May 30, 2011, 12:19:05 PM »

The EU should probably only expand to countries willing to go along in the further development of the Union. It is already too much of a large Free Market-zone and too little of an actual union.
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Frodo
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« Reply #37 on: May 30, 2011, 12:51:02 PM »

The Coal and Steal Union was an agreement that would keep one of the two countries (France and Germany) from secretly starting to produce more of the two itims in order to start war on eachother. That has nothing to do with European relations today.

From what I am reading from the 1951 Treaty of Paris that created the European Coal and Steel Community, its mission was much broader and ambitious than that.  According to the preamble (or its equivalent), its aims were, 'to substitute for historic rivalries a fusion of their essential interests; to establish, by creating an economic community, the foundation of a broad and independent community among peoples long divided by bloody conflicts; and to lay the bases of institutions capable of giving direction to their future common destiny;

HAVE DECIDED to create a European Coal and Steel Community
'

Pretty much says it itself, doesn't it? 

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That is a false comparison, and you know it. 
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The Mikado
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« Reply #38 on: May 30, 2011, 01:29:41 PM »

Franzl, why do you feel that national sovereignty is a positive?  At all?
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exnaderite
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« Reply #39 on: May 30, 2011, 02:38:43 PM »

Does anyone think that the fact that at least 4, if not 5 countries, at minimium, are going to have to be kicked out of the monetary part of this Union (i.e. the euro) before 2020 in order for said monetary part to survive, will have an impact on the expansion in the European Union itself?

I doubt the ECB will let themselves lose face by allowing any Eurozone members to officially drop out of the zone. But look the other way as some countries introduce unofficial units of account (leaving the Eurozone by stealth) in order to speed up the internal devaluation they need, perhaps.

That will be viewed as default by the credit markets.

It's already a given that at least one member will "default" in one way or another ("reprofiling", "restructuring", etc). Officially dropping the Euro may be viewed as a default, but can New York or London courts really pass judgement over an officially unofficial policy of a sovereign government? As long as the bonds are paid in Euros I'm not sure there can be a legal argument that a default has occurred.
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Franzl
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« Reply #40 on: May 30, 2011, 03:11:05 PM »

Franzl, why do you feel that national sovereignty is a positive?  At all?

For the same reason I support federalism within countries. I support decentralization as far as is reasonable and productive. Just as I think states in the U.S. should be free to set most of their own policies, I think European countries should be able to further their interests.

And it's a lot more extreme in Europe, the EU being quite undemocratic and far away from the European people. The U.S. federal government is a lot more tolerable than Brussels.

Add to that that I also strongly believe in competition of ideas. If Spain isn't providing you what you want, go to Germany or Britain where you might get what you want.

What's good about the EU is the free-trade zone and also the free movement policy (sceptical of Schengen, but not totally against it. But even with border controls, you'd still have the right to live and work in any EU country).

There's no reason that needs to be extended to centralized policies from an undemocratic institution in Brussels.
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Franzl
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« Reply #41 on: May 30, 2011, 03:14:56 PM »

You're seriously claiming the only way to avoid a future World War in Europe is by surrendering political power to Brussels? Really?

I do -from my perspective, the European Union has helped immensely as a pacifying force, which was the main reason it (or at least its predecessors) was founded.  You don't see France, Britain, and Germany contemplating war against one another, do you?  The only areas of conflict in Europe that we have seen since the end of the Cold War have been in the Balkans, which (with the exception of Slovenia) are still outside the European Union.  And the main protagonist in those conflicts has been Serbia.  

Then you're not very familiar with modern Europe, if you think that without the EU that France, Germany and Britain would start fighting once again.

There's nothing to suggest that, and an awful lot that would strongly discourage it.

The United States and Canada are separate, sovereign countries....and you don't see them going to war with each other, do you? Why are Britain and Germany different for you?
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Frodo
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« Reply #42 on: May 30, 2011, 04:22:42 PM »

You're seriously claiming the only way to avoid a future World War in Europe is by surrendering political power to Brussels? Really?

I do -from my perspective, the European Union has helped immensely as a pacifying force, which was the main reason it (or at least its predecessors) was founded.  You don't see France, Britain, and Germany contemplating war against one another, do you?  The only areas of conflict in Europe that we have seen since the end of the Cold War have been in the Balkans, which (with the exception of Slovenia) are still outside the European Union.  And the main protagonist in those conflicts has been Serbia.  

Then you're not very familiar with modern Europe, if you think that without the EU that France, Germany and Britain would start fighting once again.

There's nothing to suggest that, and an awful lot that would strongly discourage it.

The United States and Canada are separate, sovereign countries....and you don't see them going to war with each other, do you? Why are Britain and Germany different for you?

Are you seriously going to compare Europe and North America?  Really? 

When last I checked, the United States and Canada never engaged in a world war (let alone, two) that resulted in the deaths of millions and devastated an entire continent.

THAT is why Britain and Germany is a completely different situation than that between the United States and Canada.  There is no comparison.   
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #43 on: May 30, 2011, 04:32:18 PM »

Frodo, using that logic it's just a matter of time before the US and Britain declare war against eachother. You guys have been to war with eachother in the past after all. Not to mention Spain, Spain obviously wants to get back at you for the Mexican War. 
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Franzl
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« Reply #44 on: May 30, 2011, 04:42:57 PM »

Frodo, using that logic it's just a matter of time before the US and Britain declare war against eachother. You guys have been to war with eachother in the past after all. Not to mention Spain, Spain obviously wants to get back at you for the Mexican War. 

Yeah, Frodo...I really get the feeling you aren't familiar with Europe or Europeans. There's just no reason to fear any type of conflict, with or without the EU.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #45 on: May 30, 2011, 05:28:59 PM »

Anyone who thinks Europe would be on the brink of war without the EU is really much too clueless to even be considered. Sorry. I can really only echo Franzl and Johan in this thread.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #46 on: May 30, 2011, 09:58:16 PM »

Anyone who thinks Europe would be on the brink of war without the EU is really much too clueless to even be considered. Sorry. I can really only echo Franzl and Johan in this thread.

Gustaf's 100% right on this...and I say that as someone that supports the EU anyway.  (Mainly out of my dislike of the nation-state itself)  Europe isn't going back to war.  (Note: this statement includes the Balkans, but I stand ready to redefine it to not include the Balkans)
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Gustaf
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« Reply #47 on: May 31, 2011, 03:03:10 AM »

Anyone who thinks Europe would be on the brink of war without the EU is really much too clueless to even be considered. Sorry. I can really only echo Franzl and Johan in this thread.

Gustaf's 100% right on this...and I say that as someone that supports the EU anyway.  (Mainly out of my dislike of the nation-state itself)  Europe isn't going back to war.  (Note: this statement includes the Balkans, but I stand ready to redefine it to not include the Balkans)

The Balkans is a good example of why forcing countries into unions without popular support is not a good idea if you want peace.

After all, 95%+ of all wars in the world are civil wars. And most conflicts end when unions are broken up (Scandinavia, Balkans, Czechoslovakia, etc)
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Insula Dei
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« Reply #48 on: May 31, 2011, 07:20:58 AM »

Anyone who thinks Europe would be on the brink of war without the EU is really much too clueless to even be considered. Sorry. I can really only echo Franzl and Johan in this thread.

Gustaf's 100% right on this...and I say that as someone that supports the EU anyway.  (Mainly out of my dislike of the nation-state itself)  Europe isn't going back to war.  (Note: this statement includes the Balkans, but I stand ready to redefine it to not include the Balkans)

The Balkans is a good example of why forcing countries into unions without popular support is not a good idea if you want peace.

After all, 95%+ of all wars in the world are civil wars. And most conflicts end when unions are broken up (Scandinavia, Balkans, Czechoslovakia, etc)

Are you now trying to predict that the EU will lead to a pan-european civil war? Tongue
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #49 on: May 31, 2011, 09:54:03 AM »

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Haha Smiley Nah a European war, especially in Western Europe, is extraimly unlikly either way. However I think that the union many times cause more conflict between certain states than it resolves.

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Pretty easy prediction considering they already are in it. Wink

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That is probably true. Might be a potential explanation as to why eastern European countries in general seem to be more EU positive.
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