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| | |-+  European Union Expansion by 2030
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Poll
Question: Which of the following countries do you see joining the EU by the end of the next decade?
Serbia   -12 (15%)
Montenegro   -15 (18.8%)
Macedonia   -11 (13.8%)
Kosovo   -5 (6.3%)
Albania   -7 (8.8%)
Iceland   -14 (17.5%)
Turkey   -6 (7.5%)
Bosnia/Herzegovina   -6 (7.5%)
NOTA   -4 (5%)
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Total Voters: 27

Author Topic: European Union Expansion by 2030  (Read 10783 times)
Gustaf
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« Reply #50 on: May 31, 2011, 09:58:33 am »
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Anyone who thinks Europe would be on the brink of war without the EU is really much too clueless to even be considered. Sorry. I can really only echo Franzl and Johan in this thread.

Gustaf's 100% right on this...and I say that as someone that supports the EU anyway.  (Mainly out of my dislike of the nation-state itself)  Europe isn't going back to war.  (Note: this statement includes the Balkans, but I stand ready to redefine it to not include the Balkans)

The Balkans is a good example of why forcing countries into unions without popular support is not a good idea if you want peace.

After all, 95%+ of all wars in the world are civil wars. And most conflicts end when unions are broken up (Scandinavia, Balkans, Czechoslovakia, etc)

Are you now trying to predict that the EU will lead to a pan-european civil war? Tongue

Nope, I think the risk of war in Western Europe is very low either way. But if anything, the risk is greater with the EU, for two reasons:

1. It creates unnecessary conflicts over policy - look at the relation between Greece and Germany right now, for instance.

2. It undermines European democracy, and since democracy is the best insurance against war that is probably also negative from the perspective of peace.

Of course, the idea of European countries going to war today is pretty absurd. I do think Sweden is more likely to be dragged into some silly display of European power because of our EU membership.
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« Reply #51 on: May 31, 2011, 10:16:18 am »
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Worth noting that the issues that there are with the EU are mostly a result of its fundamentally undemocratic (and unaccountable; a slightly different thing) structure than with the fact that it's a supranational authority in certain respects; there is, after all, nothing sacred about nation states. The EU has done some good things and I'd not vote to leave it, but there's no point in waving aside the negatives; obviously everyone is concentrating on economic and monetary stuff at present, but no one would be allowed to forget that (for example) the EU's agricultural and fisheries policies are absolutely heinous.

The war thing is a tempting argument, but is basically silly and can be shown to be so. For example, Britain did not join the EEC until the early 1970s. And of the two big political parties in post-war Germany, the one that was initially quite hostile to the concept was also against rearmament.
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« Reply #52 on: May 31, 2011, 12:15:55 pm »
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If the EU doesn't function fully democratically that has a lot to do with the lack of enthusiasm of certain member states for the European Project. The idea of a directly elected European 'President' is something I am very much in favour of. Or if that's too much asked, perhaps we could have had Blair rather than Van Rompuy.
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« Reply #53 on: May 31, 2011, 12:26:11 pm »
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I voted Croatia and Montenegro.

Strong candidates are Iceland (if the banking stuff sorts) and Macedonia (if they can resolve the naming dispute with Greece).

Albania and Bosnia/Herz have paths but need some work.  Serbia is tied to Kosovo, nothing happens until sovereignty is settled.

Turkey?  That's "not a ing prayer" territory.  Turkey in the EU is DOA.
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« Reply #54 on: May 31, 2011, 06:13:31 pm »
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If the EU doesn't function fully democratically that has a lot to do with the lack of enthusiasm of certain member states for the European Project. The idea of a directly elected European 'President' is something I am very much in favour of. Or if that's too much asked, perhaps we could have had Blair rather than Van Rompuy.

Of course a directly elected president would never work. I'm aware that the intelectual-left of this forum dislikes the concept of nation states and that a lot even wish to see a United States of the World goverment. But people in general like their national states. They fought wars to gain indipendence, and they are not willing to give that up. As soon as the European Union in any way shape or form will start to look like a United States of Europe (which it already is in a lot of areas) all public support of the Union would crumble. That's why it was never possible to pass the EU constitution, but it was possible to pass the Lisabon Treaty. Even though they were 95% the same when it came to what was actually in them, it's all about name. A President of Europe elected like the President of the United States would never be accepted in any European country ever outside of the political elite, because that would reveal that we aren't indipendant nations any longer.

Besides the leaders of Europe would never accept a strong president telling them what to do. The strong leader they want to rule the whole EU is themself. If they can't have themself rule, they much rather prefer a weakling like Van Rompuy who will not be able to stand in their way.   
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« Reply #55 on: May 31, 2011, 07:58:11 pm »
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Reason I continue to say Macedonia will be a yes is that Greece's bargaining power has been eroded considerably due to their...problems.  Rest of Europe is going to be less likely to let Macedonia's entry be stalled due to the asinine name debate when Greece is nearing total collapse.
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« Reply #56 on: May 31, 2011, 09:25:43 pm »
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I think Armenia has a good chance of eventually joining the EU by 2020
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« Reply #57 on: June 01, 2011, 09:32:03 am »
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Reason I continue to say Macedonia will be a yes is that Greece's bargaining power has been eroded considerably due to their...problems.  Rest of Europe is going to be less likely to let Macedonia's entry be stalled due to the asinine name debate when Greece is nearing total collapse.
I would say that Greece's collapse is a good argument against new members with weak economies.
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« Reply #58 on: June 01, 2011, 11:25:14 am »
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Reason I continue to say Macedonia will be a yes is that Greece's bargaining power has been eroded considerably due to their...problems.  Rest of Europe is going to be less likely to let Macedonia's entry be stalled due to the asinine name debate when Greece is nearing total collapse.

Perhaps, but I doubt anyone will call Greece on it publically.  Realpolitik between EU member states is bad for the "project"; hell, thus far, they've been reluctant to even call out Greece on the obvious stuff.

Plus, the EU seems to give substantial deference to existing and more senior members.  If it's between Macedonia and Greece, Greece wins.
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« Reply #59 on: June 02, 2011, 04:44:05 pm »
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I have to say, Greece's problem with Macedonia is possibly the single most irredeemably stupid instance of geopolitical friction extant, at least that I am aware of. Greece's position on this is so childish, silly, and insane that I really wonder why the international community hasn't just told them to buck up and deal with it.
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« Reply #60 on: June 03, 2011, 12:04:39 pm »
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I have to say, Greece's problem with Macedonia is possibly the single most irredeemably stupid instance of geopolitical friction extant, at least that I am aware of. Greece's position on this is so childish, silly, and insane that I really wonder why the international community hasn't just told them to buck up and deal with it.

Yeah, they're doing such a great job with the whole "pay your bills" thing, I'm sure they'll adjust behavior on Macedonia with a limp-wristed push by the EU.  :-)

I'd be embarassed to be Greek right now; their behavior on the international stage is almost uniformly infantile.
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« Reply #61 on: June 12, 2011, 10:22:14 am »
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Croatia may join the EU in 2013 if it meets conditions

June 11, 2011|By Stephen Castle, International Herald Tribune

LONDON — After six arduous years of talks on its bid for European Union membership, Croatia was told yesterday that it should be able to join in 2013 but that its efforts to combat corruption and reform its judiciary will be monitored in the meantime in case they slip.

Held back by its failure to cooperate fully in the prosecution of war crimes suspects, Croatia was pressed by the EU to make a host of changes, including overhauling its judicial system.

Yesterday it was judged to have finally met entry requirements, furthering the quest for it to become the 28th EU state — providing the bloc’s nations agree to that timetable.

But the continued monitoring until then underlines how attitudes have hardened against expansion since 2007, when the EU admitted Romania and Bulgaria. Both those nations have continued to battle against corruption since then and have had some EU subsidies temporarily frozen.
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« Reply #62 on: June 27, 2011, 11:31:28 am »
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Icelandic FM: membership depends on EU fishery 'superpowers' - EUobserver

Quote from: EUobserver
"It will all rest with the Spaniards," Skarphedinsson told journalists after an intergovernmental conference (IGC), acknowledging that Icelanders themselves were not yet ready to commit to EU membership.

"They want to see the outcome of the negotiations. There is especially one thing that weighs on their minds, which is related to the psyche of the nation, and that is fisheries."

...

Despite these challenges, Skarphedinsson said he was confident that Iceland would join the Union in the coming years, his optimism partially based on the flexibility shown by the EU during accession negotiations in the fisheries chapter with Norway in the 1990s.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #63 on: June 28, 2011, 09:51:05 am »
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I think Gustaf does not make difference between NATO and EU?


I think you missed the part where the EU is developing military capacity and wants to be a big international player. Tongue

I'm in favour of NATO membership though.
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« Reply #64 on: November 24, 2011, 02:01:35 am »
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This is not encouraging for those of us who want to see Serbia join the European Union, to say the least:

Serbia May Put EU Accession on Ice

NOVEMBER 23, 2011, 4:50 PM CET
By GORAN MIJUK


The European Union’s carrot-and-stick tactics may be losing their appeal to Serbia, which may put its aspirations of joining the EU on ice or even drop them altogether as the country is unwilling to part with Kosovo, its former southern province that unilaterally declared independence in 2008.

The EU, which is expected to decide on Dec. 9 whether to proceed with accession talks with Serbia, said in October that before the integration process can be accelerated, strained relations with Kosovo need to be improved.

Conflict between the two neighbors gained momentum this summer when Kosovo police forces took over several border posts to enforce an import ban. Kosovo’s Serbs, who dominate the region, reacted by putting up road blocks, which sparked clashes with the police and later with North Atlantic Treaty Organization-led troops.

Tension in the region remains high and several barricades and roadblocks still stand even as officials from Serbia and Kosovo have resumed talks in Brussels, after suspending them during the summer violence. Top policy makers still hope the talks can be brought to a successful end and pave the way for Serbia’s EU integration.
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« Reply #65 on: November 28, 2011, 05:19:29 pm »
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Croatia and Iceland.
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« Reply #66 on: December 02, 2011, 10:20:26 pm »
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I guess this probably shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone -but it's still disappointing:

No candidate status as Merkel says Belgrade “not ready”

By Lénaïc Vaudin d’Imécourt | Friday 02 December 2011

The member states will not agree to granting Serbia EU candidate status at the next General Affairs Council, scheduled on 5 December. Concerns have been raised over the country’s readiness to be given that status, as negotiations between Serbia and Kosovo have not yet produced concrete measures to help end their conflict.

Against the backdrop of recent violence and growing tensions in the North of Kosovo, Germany made its position clear on Belgrade’s candidacy: it will not give its consent. Chancellor Angela Merkel told the German Bundestag, on 1 December, that “Serbia’s road into the EU can only lead through the normalisation of its relations with Kosovo”. “I very much regret that Serbia has not met these expectations sufficiently so far and that therefore the preconditions for giving it candidate status are not in place up until now,” she added.
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Which makes it all the more frustrating, as Serbia has made progress vis-a-vis Kosovo:

Serbia and Kosovo reach border deal

Last Modified: 03 Dec 2011 01:19

Serbia and Kosovo have struck a key deal on the controversial issue of border management, European Union mediators said after the third consecutive day of negotiations in Brussels.

In a statement late on Friday, the EU said Serbia and Kosovo agreed to joint management of their border points, but indicated that the deal "will be gradually implemented as soon as practically possible".

The bloc also added that the EU's law and justice mission in Kosovo, EULEX, "will be present in line with its mandate".

The EU announcement of a deal followed three days of long talks into the late hours as Serbia came under strong pressure from EU nations and NATO to take a proactive role in stemming violence on the border.

Belgrade and Pristina also agreed to fully implement a previous deal on free movement.

"The expectation is that there will be full implementation of the freedom of movement agreement as of 26 December 2011, resulting in free travel for everyone," the EU said.
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« Reply #67 on: December 09, 2011, 11:17:57 am »
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Today the question would be more like 'European Union Deconstruction by 2020'.
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11/02/2011: Egypt!
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02/09/2013: Syria...

Religion Tradition is people's opium...

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??/??/20??: EU UU!!
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« Reply #68 on: December 11, 2011, 11:02:21 am »
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Fortunately, Serbia will not give up on its bid to join the EU.  

And in other news, Croatia has just signed its accession treaty, making it the 28th member of the EU starting in 2013.
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« Reply #69 on: December 12, 2011, 12:42:49 pm »
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Honestly, I think there will be too much economic collapse in Europe for the EU to take in more countries. If the EU isn't completely on fire by 2015, I'll be surprised.

I got a puzzling question that some of ya guys might be able to answer. Can the EU kick out members? If so, then why haven't they kicked out members like Greece?
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« Reply #70 on: December 12, 2011, 07:25:35 pm »
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I got a puzzling question that some of ya guys might be able to answer. Can the EU kick out members? If so, then why haven't they kicked out members like Greece?

Welcome to the forum!

According to this link from the Danish government page on the EU, the answer to your question is 'no'.  An EU member country cannot be expelled though it can leave/secede on a voluntary basis.  
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« Reply #71 on: January 22, 2012, 10:23:28 pm »
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Croatia is in:

Croatians vote in favor of E.U. membership

By Michael Birnbaum, Sunday, January 22, 3:30 PM

BERLIN — Croatians voted Sunday to join the European Union, after a heated campaign that reflected how the economic turmoil of the past several years has damaged the prestige of membership.

Not long ago, becoming a member of the E.U. club was seen as a quick ticket to economic success, as borrowing costs dropped and investors swarmed some of the former Eastern Bloc countries that joined eight years ago. Now, the union is notable mainly for the financial upheaval that has threatened to spread across the Atlantic and affect growth in the United States as well as in Europe.
 
Still, citizens in some small countries appear to believe the European Union is still worth joining. With more than 99 percent of the ballots counted, Croatian officials said 66 percent of voters approved the referendum. Turnout was about 44 percent, which is considered low, they said. Assuming E.U. member countries approve Croatia’s entrance, the country by mid-2013 would be the union’s 28th member.
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« Reply #72 on: January 22, 2012, 11:09:34 pm »
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An EU member country cannot be expelled though it can leave/secede on a voluntary basis.  

Perhaps, but if the Eurocrats were really determined, they could make EU membership for a particular country so intolerable that its politicians will be forced to pander to nationalism in the electorate - and engineer an "expulsion".
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« Reply #73 on: February 29, 2012, 08:23:54 pm »
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Serbia's prospects of becoming an EU candidate is suddenly much brighter:

Kosovo and Serbia Reach Key Deal

By MATTHEW BRUNWASSER
Published: February 24, 2012


Serbia and Kosovo, its former province, reached an agreement Friday that helps pave the way for Serbia’s gaining official “candidate” status to join the European Union.

The agreement outlines the conditions under which Kosovo can be represented at international meetings and outlines technical parameters for border controls.

European Commission leaders will meet in the coming week to decide on whether Serbia has met all the criteria to begin accession talks; a key sticking point had been the tense relations with Kosovo, which declared independence in 2008. A previous E.U. meeting, in December, declined to offer Serbia an invitation, as German peacekeeping troops had come under attack by Serbs in North Kosovo.

Serbia has until now thwarted any participation by representatives of the Kosovo government in international meetings by walking out or refusing to participate. Under the new agreement, Serbia will accept international forums in which Kosovo is represented by Kosovars for the first time.

The diplomatically complex agreement states that the word “Republic” will not appear next to the name Kosovo in international forums. Instead, a footnote will refer to Security Council Resolution 1244 — which did not mention the independence of Kosovo — and a ruling by the International Court of Justice saying that Kosovo’s declaration of independence in 2008 was legal.
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« Reply #74 on: March 01, 2012, 01:12:07 pm »
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Serbia's prospects of becoming an EU candidate is suddenly much brighter:

I doubt any government will suddenly acknowledge the legitimacy of a foreign puppet regime on a historically significant part of their territory, though.
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