European Union Expansion by 2030

[Frodo]

It's official -Serbia is now a candidate to join the European Union.

[Frodo]

How soon does everyone expect Serbia to join the European Union?  In Croatia's case, between the time they became an official candidate for membership (mid-2004), and when they are due to officially join (June 2013), it took nearly a decade.  So, maybe early in the next decade for Serbia?  

[Frodo]

A few updates:

-Croatia has officially become the 28th member of the European Union.

-Also, membership talks between Serbia and the EU are set for next January.

-And we can forget about Iceland joining the EU for the time being. 

[Blue3]

I've thought talk of the EU breaking up to be too unrealistic, but no one can deny the EU is in trouble. Why do countries keep joining it?

[ingemann]

I've thought talk of the EU breaking up to be too unrealistic, but no one can deny the EU is in trouble. Why do countries keep joining it?

If the results don't fit with your data, maybe you should look into your data.

...or said in another way, American media is lazy and when they look into information about EU, they go the easiest source; British media and analysts, and let be honest, that like getting all your information about USA from TexasX10.

[Beezer]

I've thought talk of the EU breaking up to be too unrealistic, but no one can deny the EU is in trouble. Why do countries keep joining it?

Look at the countries that wish to join (Croatia, Serbia, Albania) and the countries that have in recent years backed away from membership talks (Switzerland, Norway) and you've got your answer. The EU still offers a lot of incentives for the smaller and poorer countries of EEurope thanks to the cohesion funds + it's still seen as a sign of progress to be inside of the EU in these places.

[politicus]

-And we can forget about Iceland joining the EU for the time being.  

ftfy

Iceland has a rock solid europhobic block of fishermen, farmers, hardcore leftists and conservative nationalists making up 1/3 of the population - and those people will vote in a referendum. You need to convince almost everybody else - incl. a lot of eurosceptics - to vote yes, that was never a realistic scenario, all though the crisis could have made it close (maybe 55-45 in 2009)

[ingemann]

I've thought talk of the EU breaking up to be too unrealistic, but no one can deny the EU is in trouble. Why do countries keep joining it?

Look at the countries that wish to join (Croatia, Serbia, Albania) and the countries that have in recent years backed away from membership talks (Switzerland, Norway) and you've got your answer. The EU still offers a lot of incentives for the smaller and poorer countries of EEurope thanks to the cohesion funds + it's still seen as a sign of progress to be inside of the EU in these places.

Politicus have already covered Iceland.

So let us look at the two others.
Norway have attempted to join 3 times, everytime there was a no in the referendrum, big surprise that they don't try to join again, while having a booming economy build on oil.
Switzerland will never join, it would be a pure nightmare for Switzerland to win all the refrendrum in the cantons needed to join, and economical it would demand that Switzerland changed a lot of the parasitic behaviour which make them rich.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

2020 might be too soon, but I bet by 2025 all of the Balkans joins except maybe Bosnia and Kosovo.

[ingemann]

2020 might be too soon, but I bet by 2025 all of the Balkans joins except maybe Bosnia and Kosovo.

In 2025 Serbia and Montenegro will have joined the union, BH, FYROM, Kosovo, Albania and Turkey will be in negotiation. It takes around 7-10 year from when negotiation begin to when a country become member, and I can't see any of those countries being allowed to begin negotiation before 2018-20 at earliest.

[Јas]

San Marino will hold a referendum on 20 October to decide whether or not to submit an application for EU membership.

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxyZWZlcmVuZHVtZXVyc218Z3g6NTkxZWRmOTk2Y2E3NmMw

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

San Marino will hold a referendum on 20 October to decide whether or not to submit an application for EU membership.

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxyZWZlcmVuZHVtZXVyc218Z3g6NTkxZWRmOTk2Y2E3NmMw

LOL, San Marino would have 6 times more members of the EU parliament than prisoners. Or maybe I should say prisoner.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Turkey will still be in negotiations to join the EU in 2030, though by then both sides will have long since lost interest.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

San Marino will hold a referendum on 20 October to decide whether or not to submit an application for EU membership.

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxyZWZlcmVuZHVtZXVyc218Z3g6NTkxZWRmOTk2Y2E3NmMw

LOL, San Marino would have 6 times more members of the EU parliament than prisoners. Or maybe I should say prisoner.

I can't see San Marino getting full EU membership.  And 6 MEPs if they were!?!  That would make the EU parliament more imbalanced in per capita voting rights between its largest and smallest members than the US Senate.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

San Marino will hold a referendum on 20 October to decide whether or not to submit an application for EU membership.

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxyZWZlcmVuZHVtZXVyc218Z3g6NTkxZWRmOTk2Y2E3NmMw

LOL, San Marino would have 6 times more members of the EU parliament than prisoners. Or maybe I should say prisoner.

I can't see San Marino getting full EU membership.  And 6 MEPs if they were!?!  That would make the EU parliament more imbalanced in per capita voting rights between its largest and smallest members than the US Senate.

It would be almost the same as the US Senate in 1900.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It would be almost the same as the US Senate in 1900.

Nevada was admitted way too soon.  They were too confident that it would grow and the nascent Republican Party wanted another three electoral votes they could count on in 1864.

[Frodo]

It's only a matter of time now:

Serbia To Start EU Accession Talks In January

By RFE/RL
December 17, 2013

BRUSSELS -- Serbia has been given the green light to open EU accession negotiations in January.

EU Enlargement Commissioner Stefan Fuele wrote on Twitter that EU ministers had "acknowledged reform and normalization efforts," with Kosovo.

Fuele said the talks will start on January 21.

"On Serbia and Kosovo, I applaud both prime ministers on the remarkable efforts they have made towards normalization this year with expert facilitation and political facilitation of [EU foreign-policy chief] Cathy Ashton. I am pleased that the council has acknowledged these efforts," Fuele announced after a meeting of EU ministers for foreign and European affairs in Brussels on December 17.

"The adopting of the negotiation framework is an important step forward for Serbia," he added.

Speaking on national TV, Serbia's Prime Minister Ivica Dacic called it a "historic moment for Serbia."

[Frodo]

Serb Progressives Win Majority in Parliament on EU Pledge

By Gordana Filipovic and Misha Savic 
Mar 16, 2014 6:22 PM ET

The Serbian Progressive Party led by Aleksandar Vucic won an outright parliamentary majority in a general election on a pledge to fight graft, fix the economy and join the European Union by 2020.

Vucic’s party, which forced the ballot two years earlier than scheduled, won 48.8 percent, more than polls predicted, for 157 of the chamber’s 250 seats, Serbia’s independent election monitor said today. Prime Minister Ivica Dacic’s Socialist Party received 14 percent, for 45 seats, said Marko Blagojevic, director of monitor the Centre for Free Elections and Democracy, citing preliminary results.

Vucic, who was once an ally of late Balkan strongman Slobodan Milosevic, pledged to embrace painful austerity measures endorsed by the International Monetary Fund and make Serbia the third former Yugoslav republic to join the EU two decades after the bloody Balkan civil wars. He said he will “extend a hand” to other parties before forming a new government by May 1.

“I’m sure that Serbia will continue its European path,” Vucic told a media briefing after his party declared victory. “We are ready for that kind of dialogue with all the relevant political parties.”

[Frodo]

Kosovo agreement clears Serbia's EU path

By ERIC MAURICE
BRUSSELS, 27. AUG, 09:21

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[DavidB.]

I don't know if the EU still exists in 2030 (I hope it doesn't). Of the abovementioned countries, I only see Serbia become a member soon, apart from mini states and the rich non-EU countries, who will surely be accepted if they apply. The acceptable "max" has been reached for many countries.

[Simfan34]

Wait, is Serbia recognising Kosovo?

[DavidB.]

Wait, is Serbia recognising Kosovo?

Not yet, but this agreement is certainly improving the relations between those two countries.

[doktorb]

This thread makes for interesting reading given its age!

[politicus]

I don't know if the EU still exists in 2030 (I hope it doesn't). Of the abovementioned countries, I only see Serbia become a member soon, apart from mini states and the rich non-EU countries, who will surely be accepted if they apply. The acceptable "max" has been reached for many countries.

Montenegro is more likely than Serbia, but perhaps they are a "mini state" to you.

[DavidB.]

Montenegro is more likely than Serbia, but perhaps they are a "mini state" to you.

Didn't know that they were (more) likely to join, interesting. No, they're not a mini state to mi: they're even larger than Luxembourg. By mini states I meant San Marino and the like.