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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: New Mexico  (Read 4219 times)
Skill and Chance
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« on: November 15, 2010, 09:10:28 pm »
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The Governor is a Republican and both houses of the Legislature are Democratic.  I would assume they will trade territory between Heinrich and Pearce to make them both safer while basically leaving Lujan as is? 
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« Reply #1 on: November 15, 2010, 10:14:49 pm »
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The Governor is a Republican and both houses of the Legislature are Democratic.  I would assume they will trade territory between Heinrich and Pearce to make them both safer while basically leaving Lujan as is? 
NM-1 (Albuquerque) and NM-3 (North) are about 10,000 too high, with NM-2 (South) about 20K short.

The current configuration is reasonable, and I doubt that anyone is really up for a radical realignment that would probably have to split Albuquerque and foment a lot of discussion about which tribes don't like each other, etc.

It would make sense to me to swap McKinley (Gallup) for Quay, Curry, Roosevelt (Clovis and Portales), but maybe there are tribal considerations.

Otherwise you can just shift a few boundaries around, perhaps get all of Bernalillo in NM-1 (NM-2 and NM-3 have just a few 1000 each in the county).  It's got to be a waste to handle a few precincts split between districts.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #2 on: November 15, 2010, 10:40:04 pm »
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NM-01 should drop those rural counties to the east, it's kind of silly to have them in there.
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muon2
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« Reply #3 on: November 16, 2010, 12:34:45 am »

Here's a version that makes a few swaps to improve incumbent chances, while generally avoiding county splits. CD 2 (green) is up to 53% McCain. Tribal areas are now all primarily in CD 3 (purple) which may or may not pose a problem.

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« Reply #4 on: November 18, 2010, 10:34:02 pm »
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Here's a version that makes a few swaps to improve incumbent chances, while generally avoiding county splits. CD 2 (green) is up to 53% McCain. Tribal areas are now all primarily in CD 3 (purple) which may or may not pose a problem.



Is your CD-1 entirely in Bernalillo County?  Or just in Bernalillo County and the county north of that, just on the southern fringes of that county?
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muon2
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« Reply #5 on: November 18, 2010, 11:38:08 pm »

Here's a version that makes a few swaps to improve incumbent chances, while generally avoiding county splits. CD 2 (green) is up to 53% McCain. Tribal areas are now all primarily in CD 3 (purple) which may or may not pose a problem.



Is your CD-1 entirely in Bernalillo County?  Or just in Bernalillo County and the county north of that, just on the southern fringes of that county?

It's hard to see on the state map, but I did extend into Rio Rancho in Sandoval county. This kept the reservations together on the west and south sides and the heavily GOP area with CD 2 on the east side of Bernalillo.

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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #6 on: November 21, 2010, 07:20:26 am »
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Are those two areas similar in population? Rio Rancho is also Republican IIRC (though perhaps less so than exurban East Bernalillo).

Basically, having both rural districts include a bit of the Albuquerque Metro is just unpretty to my eyes. Tongue
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #7 on: November 21, 2010, 01:54:17 pm »
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Here's a version that makes a few swaps to improve incumbent chances, while generally avoiding county splits. CD 2 (green) is up to 53% McCain. Tribal areas are now all primarily in CD 3 (purple) which may or may not pose a problem.



What would be the PVI's for the other two districts on that map?
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« Reply #8 on: November 22, 2010, 02:37:03 am »
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I'll throw in my two cents, and YES, I do know what I'm doing. *glare*







District 1 is blue, District 2 is green, District 3 is purplish.

District 1: 606,373 pop; 50% White, 41% Hispanic, 3% Native, 2% for Black, Asian, Other. Obama 59%, McCain 40%, Other 1%. *****Deviation is +24***** Albuquerque 'metro area' including Corrales, Rio Rancho, and the Valley, mountain areas there for pop equalization.

District 2: 606,331 pop; 49% White, 46% Hispanic, 2% Black, 1% for Native (sorry Mescalero Apaches, you're in a sea of Whites and Hispanics), Asian, and Other. McCain 53%, Obama 45%, Other 1%. *****Deviation is -18***** Southern and Eastern New Mexico, half of Western New Mexico, with a pop equalization bit or two in there.

District 3: 606,342 pop; 39% Hispanic, 36% White, 22% Native, 2% Other, 1% for Black and Asian. Obama 65%, McCain 34%, Other 1%. *****Deviation is -7***** Northern and half of Western New Mexico, focusing on Native Reservations, with a pop equalization bit or two in there.

Make of that what you will, but judging from the terrain covered, I wouldn't count on NM-1 being all that safe - seems like lots of swingy territory, albeit with a lean left. The other two are clearly going a certain way.

I had a few goals in this one, although not incumbent protection (it's not like you COULD draw two incumbents into the same seat without a lot of gerrymandering). To the greatest extent possible, I drew communities of interest together. To the greatest extent possible, I drew as many Natives as possible into NM-3, to concentrate their power, and so they can at least influence the Democratic primaries up there. Cheesy To the greatest extent possible, I minimized county splits. To the greatest extent possible, I ignored partisan considerations. And I made sure to limit the deviations as much as I could, because courts really focus in on that. With that in mind, I did pretty well, I believe. Smiley

County Splits Explained:

Socorro County Dist 15: Native Reservation added to NM-3.
San Miguel County Dist 15: Geographically, politically, demographically part of the East Plains and very different than the rest of San Miguel County, so put in NM-2.
Torrance County: Split entirely due to population requirements. I worked to keep communities of interest together as much as possible. The Edgewood-Moriarty corridor was kept together in NM-3. Apologies to Estancia, but the moves here enabled a very low deviation. All in all, I can live with this part. Smiley
Sandoval County: Rio Rancho and Corrales put into NM-1 *where they bloody belong*. Bernalillo and its use as a corridor to Sandia Pueblo kept in NM-3. I'm quite content with this one.
Bernalillo County: Communities of Interest + population requirements. NOTE! Bernalillo County Dist 567 is NOT a Sandia Pueblo precinct despite appearances - its population is entirely along the southern border in a narrow strip and is entirely part of North Albuquerque Acres. Dists 31 and 93 are Native Reservations and thus added to NM-3. Dist 551 is added to NM-2 entirely to equalize the population. They hate all their neighbors anyway in Chilili, so I'm not too worried about that. The NM-1 push into the east mountains is entirely due to population equalization, and I'm content with how that came out - since you have to split the mountains in any event, this doesn't look too horrible. If they complain, they can blame the courts for being fanatics about population equalization. Smiley Sorry Lewis. Sad

If you're looking for a fair map, this is it. Wink Now watch the Census Bureau numbers come out and make fools of us all...
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« Reply #9 on: November 22, 2010, 05:30:45 am »
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I note that your Albuquerque district is much larger than Muon's, and your NM-2 and 3 smaller... were you working with 2000 census data?
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« Reply #10 on: November 22, 2010, 11:46:23 am »
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I note that your Albuquerque district is much larger than Muon's, and your NM-2 and 3 smaller... were you working with 2000 census data?

I'll have to check on that. I was using the default in Dave's Redistricting App, so I'll poke around when I get back home. Oh well, enjoy it anyway, we're all just waiting on the actual numbers early next year. ^_^
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« Reply #11 on: November 23, 2010, 12:56:52 am »
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Hmm, looks like Lewis was right. I'll let the previous effort stand as how New Mexico *should* have been redistricted in 2001. Wink

I used the new data, although I highly doubt the numbers are that accurate at the precinct level because of how they were generated (uniformly applying a county's growth/decline percentage to each precinct...no, just no), but I don't think there is any alternative to them yet. It's an interesting exercise, anyway. Smiley



Here we have the overview. I had to split a few things for population equalization that I would rather have not, but such are the courts. The reasons I gave in my first post still apply.

NM-1: 661,451 pop; 45% Hispanic, 44% White, 3% Native, 3% Black, 2% Asian, 1% Other. 59% Obama, 39% McCain, 1% Other. Still a Dem-leaning district that could swing under the right circumstances, just as before. Albuquerque and nearby areas, part of Rio Rancho. *****Deviation is -1***** Yes, I got this to within ONE person of optimal. Smiley

NM-2: 661,473 pop; 49% Hispanic, 45% White, 2% Black, 1% Native, Asian, and Other. 53% McCain, 45% Obama, 1% Other. Still a Rep-leaning district, and I suppose vulnerable in a wave. Southern, Southwestern, and Eastern NM, reaching up into Torrance County and into the City of Edgewood for population. *****Deviation is +21***** Pretty darn low...

NM-3: 661,432 pop; 40% Hispanic, 36% White, 21% Native, 1% Black, Asian, and Other. 64% Obama, 35% McCain, 1% Other. Yeah, all the action here is in the Democratic primary. Northwestern and Northern NM, stretching into central NM for population. *****Deviation is -20***** Again, very low.





Two Splits to explain this time: Santa Fe County is split because I didn't want to split the multi-county City of Edgewood and kept it together. Sandoval County is split in Rio Rancho because I have to split it somewhere, and at least Rio Rancho's split is roughly logical along a NW-SE axis. Also, doing it this way gives me that -1 Deviation which is nice.





Colfax County and the City of Raton: population considerations left me with little choice but to split things right through the county. Colfax County has some oddly-shaped precinct boundaries. Oh, although you can't see it in the jpg for whatever reason, the last image has the Climax Canyon Park in it. Cheesy

A pretty fair map, paying no attention to partisanship. I'd say the actual numbers next year will probably make things even more interesting in Sandoval and Santa Fe Counties regarding those splits, but I believe this is the basic template for a nonpartisan split. I will say even using this, one could certainly gerrymander it a bit...say, swap the South Valley for more of Rio Rancho and Corrales for a pro-Republican gerrymander (yeah, that's not getting anywhere in the Legislature), or swap Rio Rancho for some Native lands for a pro-Dem gerrymander (although I can't imagine why they wouldn't go along with this map unless they're really trying to be dicks, given how well it works out). It's still better than anything La Politica is cooking up, right King? Wink
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muon2
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« Reply #12 on: November 24, 2010, 07:07:56 am »

I am always pleased to hear from the resident expert. I doesn't hurt when I see my map is so close. Smiley It looks like Edgewood was the only significant area that I wasn't aware of that switched.


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« Reply #13 on: January 07, 2011, 08:28:41 pm »
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Ok so Democrats control the legislature and the governor is Republican. So in this state, does the governor have veto power over redistricting?
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« Reply #14 on: January 08, 2011, 01:55:29 am »
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Just for fun, I did one that gets all 3 districts to go Democrat.  Also, this was by far the closest I was able to get the districts in population, keeping the difference to under 100.





And here's the info:

District   Population   Obama      McCain
1      606,278      174,318 (57%)   126,515 (41%)
2      606,410      132,914 (56%)   101,965 (43%)
3      606,358      164,713 (57%)   118,200 (41%)
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« Reply #15 on: January 08, 2011, 06:22:13 am »
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I've seen worse maps in actual use. Grin Though not in states that small. (Well, Utah is not much better, actually.)

What's the racial composition?
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« Reply #16 on: January 09, 2011, 01:47:28 pm »
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If you want to minimize county splits and make the map look good, here you go:



Only two counties are split, Valencia and Curry. NM-01 is 60-39 Obama and 46/43 Hispanic/white, NM-02 is 52-46 McCain and 51/43 Hispanic/white, and NM-03 is 63-36 Obama and 39/38/20 Hispanic/white/Native. The districts' population deviations are -14, -47, and 61, respectively.

Here's another alternative; this time, NM-01 goes up into Sandoval County. The two split counties are Roosevelt and Sandoval.



Doesn't really change the numbers significantly; NM-02 goes to 51-47 McCain. The deviations are 28, -150, and 122.
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« Reply #17 on: January 09, 2011, 08:20:03 pm »
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If you want to minimize county splits and make the map look good, here you go:



Only two counties are split, Valencia and Curry. NM-01 is 60-39 Obama and 46/43 Hispanic/white, NM-02 is 52-46 McCain and 51/43 Hispanic/white, and NM-03 is 63-36 Obama and 39/38/20 Hispanic/white/Native. The districts' population deviations are -14, -47, and 61, respectively.

Here's another alternative; this time, NM-01 goes up into Sandoval County. The two split counties are Roosevelt and Sandoval.



Doesn't really change the numbers significantly; NM-02 goes to 51-47 McCain. The deviations are 28, -150, and 122.
What is the population of the purple area of Roosevelt County in the second map.  Could you get that same population in Torrance or Catron, and avoid the town split of Portales?

How much over would the green district be if it included all of Roosevelt County?

In Arkansas 2000, the four districts were +0.00%, -0.34%, +0.66%, and -0.32% from the ideal population, with a 1.002% difference between the smallest and largest districts.  The redistricting law also had versions in case someone challenged the whole county version on "one man, one vote" grounds.  They in effect challenged someone to sue, and piss off a few county clerks and a few 1000 voters.  And it may have shown a good faith effort to achieve population equality.

In New Mexico, I assume if any of the neighboring counties, including Cibola or Torrance, it would put the central distict over by more than 1%.  But what if you included all of Roosevelt in the green district, and then equalized the population of the other two districts with the split in Sandoval.  So the green district would would have +X over the ideal population, and the other two would be -X/2 (for the purpose of this exercise, assume that you can split a VTD to get to precisely equal districts.  Is (X + X/2)/Ideal less than 1%?


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« Reply #18 on: April 19, 2011, 11:25:27 pm »
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Well, here's my plan, for fun and games. All of this uses 2010 Census data.

CD1 is in blue: 686,443, Deviation +50, total pop 47.7% Hispanic, 42% White, 3.4% Native, 2.5% Black, 2.3% Asian, 2% Other. 18+: 46.8% White, 43.3% Hispanic, 3.3% Native, 2.6% Black, 2.4% Asian, 1.6% Other. A clear Minority-Majority district.

CD2 is in green: 686,376, Deviation -17, total pop 50.8% Hispanic, 43.8% White, 1.9% Black, 1.3% Native, 1.3% Other, 0.8% Asian. 18+: 49.1% White, 45.6% Hispanic, 2.0% Black, 1.3% Native, 1.1% Other, 0.9% Asian. Barely Hispanic-majority by pop but not by voting age.

CD3 is in purple: 686,360, Deviation -33, total pop 40.4% Hispanic, 35.7% White, 20.8% Native, 1.6% Other, 0.8% Asian, 0.7% Black. 18+: 40.0% White, 38.0% Hispanic, 19.1% Native, 1.2% Other, 0.9% Asian, 0.8% Black. A very clear Minority-Majority district, with significant Native influence.

I didn't bother trying to figure out political leanings, because that isn't matched up to precinct on Dave's site yet (and relying on the projections from 2009 is...iffy). But for the moment - notice the Total Pop and 18+ differences? Many Hispanic kiddies are on the way - CD2 probably is Rep and CD3 certainly is Dem, although I wonder quite a bit about primary races in both. CD1 leans Dem - the big question, though, is whether Obama 2008 was a permanent shift or an aberration. I especially doubt Rio Rancho will remain that Democratic (Corrales is bullmoose and Torie land, with rich liberals to match the rich wet Reps so...) but I'll be very curious to see what happens in 2012.



Here is the overall map. Pretty similar to my previous ones, except for where exactly the splits go.



Here is an inset showing most of the split areas.



Here is an inset focusing on the Albuquerque metro area.



Here is an inset focusing on the Santa Fe and San Miguel splits.

Bernalillo: Split for communities of interest. I know this area, people - Laguna and To'hajiilee belong in the Native district and the East Mountain Area is not the same as the metro area. Chilili in the SE was added to CD2 for balancing purposes, but that actually unites all the bits of the Chilili Land Grant so no worries there.

San Miguel: The easternmost precinct belongs in CD2. The precinct to its west got included because it really made the balancing work well. My apologies to them.

Sandoval: I was able to include all of Corrales. I was not able to include all of Rio Rancho -  too many people. As a side note, if by some random chance the Reps ever got to draw a map, shedding the South Valley areas for more of Rio Rancho would make CD1 swingier. Everything would be compact and contiguous as well. Smiley

Santa Fe: Edgewood (well, except for a little bit in BernCo, but no one lives in that part) and the rest of the communities in southern Santa Fe County are all in one district, where they have more in common with nearby Tijeras and Moriarty than with Santa Fe City. Balance reasons made me push the boundary a bit further north.

Socorro: As before, nabbing the Navajos in the NW for the Native district. There are road connections between them and Cibola County.

Of course I would've liked to get the mountain areas of E Bernalillo and SE Sandoval together with the other such areas, but population constraints prevented that.

A very fair map, and better than the existing one! Also much more respectful of communities of interest than some of the others in this thread. Tongue
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« Reply #19 on: April 19, 2011, 11:58:10 pm »
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Welcome back WMS
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« Reply #20 on: May 02, 2011, 12:35:12 pm »
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So, does New Mexico get a Hispanic district? You get one with a racial split of Albequerque, with the added benefit of putting all the Democrats in 1 district.
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« Reply #21 on: May 02, 2011, 12:39:28 pm »
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So, does New Mexico get a Hispanic district? You get one with a racial split of Albequerque, with the added benefit of putting all the Democrats in 1 district.

Well, you can draw 2 McCain districts (though only by like 2 points each), but I don't think the Democratic-Controlled State Legislature would like that map.  Also, doing so would create a Hispanic-majority district, but it would be a Republican one rather than the Democratic one (Mostly due to the Strongly D Native vote, along with plenty of urban White Liberals around Santa Fe).  Remember that the most Hispanic district in NM is actually the 2nd, which is the most Republican.
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« Reply #22 on: May 02, 2011, 12:45:58 pm »
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So, does New Mexico get a Hispanic district? You get one with a racial split of Albequerque, with the added benefit of putting all the Democrats in 1 district.

Well, you can draw 2 McCain districts (though only by like 2 points each), but I don't think the Democratic-Controlled State Legislature would like that map.  Also, doing so would create a Hispanic-majority district, but it would be a Republican one rather than the Democratic one (Mostly due to the Strongly D Native vote, along with plenty of urban White Liberals around Santa Fe).  Remember that the most Hispanic district in NM is actually the 2nd, which is the most Republican.


This was the kind of map I had in mind. The blue district ends up both heavily packed and 56% Hispanic, green ends up a tossup, and purple is of course Republican.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/51954263@N03/5680191125/in/photostream/
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« Reply #23 on: September 19, 2011, 05:47:36 pm »
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Oh look, a proposed map that won't go anywhere because the governor won't sign it.
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« Reply #24 on: October 08, 2011, 09:58:27 pm »
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Two McCain districts!



blue - 76.1 Obama, 30.9/49.8/16.7 white/Hispanic/Native VAP
green - 50.8 McCain, 50.4/39.4/6.3 white/Hispanic/Native VAP
purple - 52.1 McCain, 54.6/37.6/2.0 white/Hispanic/Native VAP
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