Ironically, Iowa actually went from a Republican state to Democrat state

[Angel of Death]

Both The Vorlon and BRTD are making a fundamental flawed assumption here when making claims based on state-vs-national-vote numbers.
Because who says that each party could "normally" expect 50 percent of the vote between them (admittedly something encouraged by Duverger's Law, but definitely not a certainty as past history clearly demonstrates)?

For all we know, the entire Midwest is red "by default" now and the different result was the result of a worse than average Republican and/or a better than average Democratic candidate.

[elcorazon]

Both The Vorlon and BRTD are making a fundamental flawed assumption here when making claims based on state-vs-national-vote numbers.
Because who says that each party could "normally" expect 50 percent of the vote between them (admittedly something encouraged by Duverger's Law, but definitely not a certainty as past history clearly demonstrates)?

For all we know, the entire Midwest is red "by default" now and the different result was the result of a worse than average Republican and/or a better than average Democratic candidate.

I think there could be something to that theory.  The bigger question is, where does the default number lie (51-48, 52-47, 49-49, 55-43).  I think it's hard to judge given the candidates we've had.  Maybe we'll know more in 4 years. sigh.

[MODU]

There is no default, since each election year the environment is different.  People die off, new voters enter the arena, people move in and out of states, moralistic views change, etc.  As long as states stay prodominantly rural, they will normally lean Conservative.  Once the states become more urban, they begin to lean Liberal.

[they don't love you like i love you]

As long as states stay prodominantly rural, they will normally lean Conservative.  Once the states become more urban, they begin to lean Liberal.

that's not always true.

compare Lake county, MN (rural) to Pennington county, SD (urban)

[YoMartin]

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If you know (or if assume) the national numbers switch X% for a candidate, you can´t be sure that the switch in every state would follow that trend (in some could be -X% and in others XX%), because the national numbers are composed by state numbers and not the other way round. Assumptions made about individuals based on aggregate data are vulnerable to the ecological fallacy. However, I think the idea is that if 500.000 texans switched to the democrats, probably there´s a "national" reason producing that switch (or maybe not: what could produce a gain in Texas may be the same thing to cause a loss in New York).

[MODU]

As long as states stay prodominantly rural, they will normally lean Conservative.  Once the states become more urban, they begin to lean Liberal.

that's not always true.

compare Lake county, MN (rural) to Pennington county, SD (urban)

Which is why I said "normally." 

Hey BRTD . . . you'll be glad to know I saw a license plate today that made me think of you.  It was UGBRTD.  I was trying to figure out what UG could stand for, or even if he was trying to say Better Red Than Dead.  But in any case, I got a grin out of it.  hehehe