VA-PPP: Obama (D) easily defeats all Republicans

[Tender Branson]

Hmm, this is surprising. I thought he would trail some of them (Romney, Huckabee).

...

Obama vs. Romney: 48-43
Obama vs. Huckabee: 49-44
Obama vs. Gingrich: 52-41
Obama vs. Palin: 51-40

...

Obama Approval Rating: 50-45

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_1116205.pdf

[RIP Robert H Bork]

He only leads Romney and Huck by 5 points. That's not quite easily beating them.

For comparison, he beat McCain by 7 points.

[Tender Branson]

Favorables of Republicans:

Romney: 33-46
Palin: 35-58
Huckabee: 40-40
Gingrich: 32-53

It´s a 49-44 Obama vs. McCain sample, with 36% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 30% Others.

[Tender Branson]

He only leads Romney and Huck by 5 points. That's not quite easily beating them.

For comparison, he beat McCain by 7 points.

Yeah, but considering it's Virginia, a swing state and where Deeds did very badly last year, it is easily.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

He only leads Romney and Huck by 5 points. That's not quite easily beating them.

For comparison, he beat McCain by 7 points.

Yeah, but considering it's Virginia, a swing state and where Deeds did very badly last year, it is easily.

I'd call it an "easy" win if Obama were winning by at least 10 points.

But I guess it depends on what we consider to be an easy win.

[Gravis Marketing]

It's shocking that he's ahead of Republicans at all in Virginia.

[Poundingtherock]

Well, PPP has him at 50% approval and he basically wins his approval against everyone.

So the question is whether Obama really is at 50% approval in VA.  If that isn't right, that changes the entire equation.  I think Mason-Dixon had him a lot lower in the last VA poll that it conducted.

[Keystone Phil]

Yet we're leading in Washington. Uh huh.

[Tender Branson]

Well, PPP has him at 50% approval and he basically wins his approval against everyone.

So the question is whether Obama really is at 50% approval in VA.  If that isn't right, that changes the entire equation.  I think Mason-Dixon had him a lot lower in the last VA poll that it conducted.

Mason-Dixon polled VA in 2010 ?

I´m not even aware when the last VA poll before this was really done ...

Must have been Rasmussen, sometime in June or July.

[Gravis Marketing]

Yet we're leading in Washington. Uh huh.

Who leads in Washington, "Generic Republican" or actual candidates?

Not saying I believe this poll, but that is the most salient distinction between it and the others we saw.

[xavier110]

Yet we're leading in Washington. Uh huh.

Ahem, Generic Republican leads by 1...which means Obama by double digits.

[Keystone Phil]

Yet we're leading in Washington. Uh huh.

Ahem, Generic Republican leads by 1...which means Obama by double digits.

"Generic Republican" still wouldn't even be leading there which is why I doubt these polls (not that it matters now anyway).

[Tender Branson]

Hey Dave, could you please set up the 2012 state poll database already ?

*joke*

[Tender Branson]

BTW, PPP will release Montana 2012 Senate numbers today as well ...

[You kip if you want to...]

Jeez, and here's me thinking that the Obama presidency was dead, since the media told me it was.

[Tender Branson]

Also, before anyone jumps in and says "but, but PPP is a Dem hack company !!! - You cannot trust it !!!", I have to mention that PPP actually has a slight GOP lean in the 2010 cycle.

[Gravis Marketing]

"Generic Republican" still wouldn't even be leading there which is why I doubt these polls (not that it matters now anyway).

Looking at the House races in Washington (particularly the narrow D wins in WA-2 and WA-9) and the Senate race this month, I think it would be fair to say that "Generic Republican" would have defeated "Democratic incumbent" by 1 point or more. I believe Rossi ran behind Generic Republican, as almost any candidate would.

My hopes for Obama depend on the national mood changing between now and November 2012, and not for the worse for Dems. Secondarily on the quality of the Republican candidate, it already looks like there's not going to be someone super-charismatic or accomplished running on that side.

[A-Bob]

He only leads Romney and Huck by 5 points. That's not quite easily beating them.

For comparison, he beat McCain by 7 points.

but it's still odd considering the GOP picked up congressional seats and elected McDonnell in 2009 and like them

[Gravis Marketing]

He only leads Romney and Huck by 5 points. That's not quite easily beating them.

For comparison, he beat McCain by 7 points.

but it's still odd considering the GOP picked up congressional seats and elected McDonnell in 2009 and like them

Yes, the only way this makes sense to me is that the electorate they're sampling is much more like '08 than '10 (and even then, the sample may be too Democratic) AND these particular four Republican candidates are viewed as old news with at least moderate negatives because of '08 battles or, with Gingrich, all of his baggage. I happily chalk this up to wishful thinking until other polls show similar results.  

[A-Bob]

He only leads Romney and Huck by 5 points. That's not quite easily beating them.

For comparison, he beat McCain by 7 points.

but it's still odd considering the GOP picked up congressional seats and elected McDonnell in 2009 and like them

Yes, the only way this makes sense to me is that the electorate they're sampling is much more like '08 than '10 (and even then, the sample may be too Democratic) AND these particular four Republican candidates are viewed as old news with at least moderate negatives because of '08 battles or, with Gingrich, all of his baggage. I happily chalk this up to wishful thinking until other polls show similar results.  

Going inside the numbers Obama pretty much breaks even with independents against Romney and Huckabee and then leads Gingrich by 8 points and Palin by 17 with them.

Yeah, looks overly dem to me if he's in a dead heat with independents yet winning by 5 points...

[Gravis Marketing]

Someone on SSP said the sample is 55% women. pbbbbbblt.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Also, before anyone jumps in and says "but, but PPP is a Dem hack company !!! - You cannot trust it !!!", I have to mention that PPP actually has a slight GOP lean in the 2010 cycle.

Oh, I'm not accusing PPP of having Democratic bias.

[Skill and Chance]

He only leads Romney and Huck by 5 points. That's not quite easily beating them.

For comparison, he beat McCain by 7 points.

but it's still odd considering the GOP picked up congressional seats and elected McDonnell in 2009 and like them

Obama was already winning VA by a substantial margin before the 2nd and 5th districts became competitive.  He doesn't need those voters to win the state.  The fact that Connolly survived 2010 is enough to indicate that he still has his base in the state.

[opebo]

I suppose one reason Obama may be doing better in VA is that its economy is one of the top 2-3 states in the country.

[Gravis Marketing]

I suppose one reason Obama may be doing better in VA is that its economy is one of the top 2-3 states in the country.

I had that thought, too. Outside of states with good economies because they have a) grain b) oil, or c) both (hi, ND), it's the states with the highest levels of educational attainment that are weathering the recession best. We'd expect to see similar leans in Colorado, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and possibly Maryland.