VA-PPP: Webb is narrowly leading Allen, wins indies

[Gravis Marketing]

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/11/webb-kaine-lead-allen.html

Webb leads Allen 49-45 in a hypothetical contest, a margin slightly better than what he earned in his upset victory over Allen in 2006. Webb leads Allen 49-44 with independents and wins over slightly more Republicans (9%) than Allen does Democrats (6%). There's been a lot of speculation in recent days about whether Webb might decline to seek a second term. We found that if Kaine was the Democratic nominee instead of Webb he would actually do slightly better, leading Allen 50-44.

Probably says more about Allen than it does about Webb's chances...

[useful idiot]

The fact that Kaine does better than Webb is mind-boggling (even if by a miniscule margin)

I think Allen could take it though, and I can't imagine he isn't going to run. He's been at all the typical prep events, and campaigned for congressional candidates this year. I don't know why he'd be wasting his time otherwise.

[Mjh]

I think Allen can do this.

[nkpatel1279]

I would like to see a polling  matchup of Webb or Kaine vs generic GOP challengers ie Cuccenelli, Bolling, Davis,or Forbes.

in OH- I like to see a polling matchup between Sherrod Brown vs Mike DeWine rematch or Brown vs Mean Jean, Mike Turner,Jim Jordan,Bob Latta,Steve Austria, or LaTourette, or Mary Taylor.

in MO- I like to see a polling matchup between a McCaskill vs Talent rematch. or matchup betweenMcCaskill vs Kinder, Steelman,Akin,or Emerson, or Graves.

Other Class of 2006 DEM US Senators ie Cardin-MD,Menendez-NJ,and Sanders-VT represent Blue States.  Casey-PA and Klobuchar-MN are perfect fits in their homestate. Same goes from Special Election victors Gillibrand-NY and Manchin-WV.

Democrats who were elected in 2000 and re-elected during the 2006 DEM wave
Carper(DE) is safe. Nelson-FL,Stabenow-MI,and Cantwell-WA may face a tough race but will win re-election.  Nelson-NE is a lost cause.  Conrad-ND is going to be on the watchlist.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Allen is a gaffe machine: he can't help himself.

[nkpatel1279]

During the mid 1990's Allen was the rising star in the GOP- when he unseated Chuck Robb in 2000- He was suppose to be GOP presidential candidate in 2004-had Gore won or 2008. but he narrowly lost re-election due to Macaca.

[Gravis Marketing]

Perhaps Allen running is the best possible outcome for Dems because it may be all that motivates Webb to run again, and run like he wants to win.

[Lіef]

Huh. Surprisingly good numbers. I was expecting the opposite (narrow Allen lead).

[Joe Republic]

Huh. Surprisingly good numbers. I was expecting the opposite (narrow Allen lead).

Well, we haven't heard from Rasmussen yet, I don't think.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Huh. Surprisingly good numbers. I was expecting the opposite (narrow Allen lead).

That's what happens when you recruit good candidates like Chuck Schumer did. They know how to weather a storm much better than deadwood that just comes ashore with the wave (Rand Paul, Ron Johnson, Joe Miller).

[Badger]

My, my. All these troubling polls of 2012 races. Good thing for Republican candidates 2012 will be exactly the same as 2010 in every way.

[Skill and Chance]

I am also amazed that Kaine is polling as well if not slightly better than Webb.  Might the Dems actually be better off and Allen worse off if Webb retires than if he stays? 

I would assume that the Tea Party wildcard here is Cucinelli.  He is a hardcore conservative in almost every way.  Perriello is the obvious inverse Tea Party wildcard in the primary.

[Fmr. Emperor PiT]

     Rematches of old races tend to fare better for the first-time winner. I'm sure Webb is hoping really badly that Allen runs.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Republicans can't find a fresh face? You know, one that hasn't been exposed as an explicit racist?

[Kevin]

Why is everyone saying these are good numbers for Webb, to have him only barely ahead this far out is horrible numbers for an incumbent. Especially in a Republican leaning swing state like Virginia.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Again?

Republicans can't find a fresh face? You know, one that hasn't been exposed as an explicit racist?

^^^^

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Considering their other potential candidates are an empty suit and a crazy, Allen is probably their best bet.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Why is everyone saying these are good numbers for Webb, to have him only barely ahead this far out is horrible numbers for an incumbent. Especially in a Republican leaning swing state like Virginia.

The incumbent rule doesn't apply when your opponent was even more of an incumbent then you are.

[Lіef]

Why is everyone saying these are good numbers for Webb, to have him only barely ahead this far out is horrible numbers for an incumbent. Especially in a Republican leaning swing state like Virginia.

The incumbent rule doesn't apply when your opponent was even more of an incumbent then you are.

And Virginia was about even relative to the national popular-vote in 2008. It's not Republican-leaning.

[Dgov]

Why is everyone saying these are good numbers for Webb, to have him only barely ahead this far out is horrible numbers for an incumbent. Especially in a Republican leaning swing state like Virginia.

Doubly so if you consider that PPP has Obama winning this group by 5 points.  Not exactly encouraging numbers for him.