US House Redistricting: California
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 19, 2024, 12:26:02 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  US House Redistricting: California
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 4 [5] 6 7 8 9 10 ... 18
Author Topic: US House Redistricting: California  (Read 79844 times)
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #100 on: February 19, 2011, 07:14:32 AM »

The more rural parts of Sonoma don't belong into any district but the first by any measure, really.
Logged
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,858
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #101 on: February 21, 2011, 01:46:54 AM »


But was that more to suit legislators, or due to real communities of interest? With the commission in charge, districts designed to keep incumbents happy may not fare so well.

That was to give San Francisco two seats in the state senate, under fair lines, it would only have one.
Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,583
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #102 on: February 22, 2011, 01:48:07 AM »

The more rural parts of Sonoma don't belong into any district but the first by any measure, really.

You mean north of Santa Rosa? How many live there?
Logged
Хahar 🤔
Xahar
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,731
Bangladesh


Political Matrix
E: -6.77, S: 0.61

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #103 on: February 22, 2011, 02:19:09 AM »

The more rural parts of Sonoma don't belong into any district but the first by any measure, really.

You mean north of Santa Rosa? How many live there?

Not many. Those areas are much more similar to Mendocino than to the Bay Area.
Logged
Verily
Cuivienen
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #104 on: February 22, 2011, 08:46:44 AM »
« Edited: February 22, 2011, 08:49:19 AM by Verily »

Also west of Santa Rosa, like Guerneville, Occidental, and that Sea Ranch development. Maybe Sebastopol, too, but it's really close to Santa Rosa.
Logged
Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,302


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #105 on: February 22, 2011, 04:20:29 PM »

Healdsburg also. That area is mostly agricultural.
Logged
freepcrusher
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,825
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #106 on: March 05, 2011, 10:45:20 PM »

i kind of wanted to redistrict orange county and see if there was any differences between parts of the county. I divided the county into four quadrants. All of them were pretty 50-50 break even except for the northeast quadrant which gave McCain about 58% of the vote. Bush very well may have gotten close to 65% here. The communities here would be like Villa Park, Yorba Linda, parts of Orange and Placentia etc. What makes that part of the county so much more republican than the rest of the county?
Logged
Verily
Cuivienen
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #107 on: March 05, 2011, 10:51:30 PM »

i kind of wanted to redistrict orange county and see if there was any differences between parts of the county. I divided the county into four quadrants. All of them were pretty 50-50 break even except for the northeast quadrant which gave McCain about 58% of the vote. Bush very well may have gotten close to 65% here. The communities here would be like Villa Park, Yorba Linda, parts of Orange and Placentia etc. What makes that part of the county so much more republican than the rest of the county?

Richer and whiter. Sounds like you split the Democratic areas, which are in the center of the county, among the other quadrants, too.
Logged
Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,047
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #108 on: March 05, 2011, 11:20:36 PM »

i kind of wanted to redistrict orange county and see if there was any differences between parts of the county. I divided the county into four quadrants. All of them were pretty 50-50 break even except for the northeast quadrant which gave McCain about 58% of the vote. Bush very well may have gotten close to 65% here. The communities here would be like Villa Park, Yorba Linda, parts of Orange and Placentia etc. What makes that part of the county so much more republican than the rest of the county?

Middle to upper middle class Anglo non Jewish socons with kids living in the house, and rather light on the professional class who like to live closer to the beach. The end. You just can't get more Pubbie than that, unless their Dutch or LDS.
Logged
Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,047
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #109 on: March 06, 2011, 04:23:26 PM »
« Edited: March 07, 2011, 11:20:45 AM by Torie »

CA-46 and CA-47 are now done. Again, I think this is how the map will probably actually be drawn. CA-42 and CA-40 are works in progress. Both are still short of population by about 40,000 and 30,000 thousand folks, respectively. CA-40 will probably pick up Naples and Belmont Heights and Shore in Long Beach to round it out. It is a community of interest reasonably tied to Seal Beach in OC. We shall see. If CA-40 stays all in OC, it will have to split Fullerton, and under the law County lines do not trump municipal lines (both are given equal weight), so I see no reason to do that. CA-42 may be subject to more substantial changes.

Under the CA law, one needs a very good reason to split municipalities, so I was careful to minimize doing that. So Anaheim and Garden Grove were split (they have to be, but Anaheim only on the east, excising Anaheim Hills), and CA-47 picked up a few Hispanic precincts in Fullerton and Costa Mesa, and a couple from Orange that stick awkwardly across the 5 Fwy anyway) -  all justified by the VRA. The Vietnamese in Garden Grove were excised from CA-47, so Loretta Sanchez does not need to worry about them anymore. CA-46 is Lake Forest, Irvine, Tustin, Laguna Beach, Laguna Woods, a bit of Laguna Hills otherwise largely cut off from where most of it is in CA-48, Newport Beach, most of Costa Mesa, and Fountain Valley.

The shape and location of CA-47 kind of drives what else is going on in OC.

Logged
Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,302


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #110 on: March 06, 2011, 05:12:04 PM »

What is the Hispanic % in Ca-47?
Logged
Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,047
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #111 on: March 06, 2011, 10:43:40 PM »

What is the Hispanic % in Ca-47?

70.3%, presumably VAP if VAP figures have been imputed for all states. Muon2 mentioned that he told Dave Bradlee that VAP was what mattered legally, Bradlee made the change.
Logged
Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,047
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #112 on: March 07, 2011, 11:41:14 AM »
« Edited: March 07, 2011, 01:07:22 PM by Torie »

Here is the Long Beach extension round out of CA-40. It worked quite well in picking up what is a quite cohesive community, and what you are looking it is what I consider the coolest and most desirable place to live in Socal really, if it is within commuting distance of your work (but now the trolley runs from close to there right up to downtown LA). The tastefully landscaped and maintained housing nestled next to the beach (check out the beach volleyball games which go on all the time on the weekends, and the buffed bods of those leaping a around  trying to get to and slam back the ball), and the bay, and the lagoons, and the channels and the boats, is all there just waiting for you to enjoy.

You can walk to 2nd street with its sidewalk cafes and other interesting shops (my favorite dispensary is on 2nd street), and people watch (sipping a morning cappuccino), and trust me, the people that you are watching are well worth watching. The area has a substantial gay minority - those who can afford it. If you are in the area, check out 2nd street and the hood. I suspect that you won't be disappointed. And to the west along the streets near the bay for a couple or three miles, is a lot of older construction, and some splendid and well maintained craftsman homes, and 1920's colonials and so forth. Downtown Long Beach has also made a big comeback. I just love the area.

And oh yes, the climate is great because this part of the CA coastline has a southern exposure which is rather protected (by the Palos Verdes Hills, which tend to block off some of the fog to its east along the coast), so you get the cooler temps (and cleaner air) of beach living without as much of the fog. It's one of the sunniest beach locals in all of Socal.

Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #113 on: March 07, 2011, 12:10:48 PM »

Since the official data aren't out yet and you'll have to redo once they are... I'd put this on hold for now.
Logged
Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,047
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #114 on: March 07, 2011, 12:37:43 PM »

Since the official data aren't out yet and you'll have to redo once they are... I'd put this on hold for now.

Have there been substantial discrepancies between the town estimates that became available about 6 weeks ago, and the final census numbers in other states with finalized numbers to your knowledge?  If so, yes, you are right. The only thing, is the county numbers are final, so the overall shape of what I drew so far will still hold (SD and OC counties basically, with the Hispanic CD in Riverside County that kind of draws itself, and can expand or contract a bit, and one other CD wedged in the SW corner of Riverside, which can easily expand or contract a bit). But starting to do LA County would indeed be insane, if the numbers are going to move much, I agree.
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #115 on: March 07, 2011, 12:51:19 PM »

In Texas the statewide total was very near spot on but the distribution by region was different - sometimes very much so - in myriad, hard to summarize ways.
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #116 on: March 07, 2011, 07:12:33 PM »
« Edited: March 07, 2011, 07:19:14 PM by cinyc »

Since the official data aren't out yet and you'll have to redo once they are... I'd put this on hold for now.

Have there been substantial discrepancies between the town estimates that became available about 6 weeks ago, and the final census numbers in other states with finalized numbers to your knowledge?  If so, yes, you are right. The only thing, is the county numbers are final, so the overall shape of what I drew so far will still hold (SD and OC counties basically, with the Hispanic CD in Riverside County that kind of draws itself, and can expand or contract a bit, and one other CD wedged in the SW corner of Riverside, which can easily expand or contract a bit). But starting to do LA County would indeed be insane, if the numbers are going to move much, I agree.

I don't know about the town estimates released 6 weeks ago, but some of the 2009 ACS estimates have been wildly off.  Omaha, with a 2010 census population of about 408,000, was estimated at almost 455,000.  Chicago and Houston were also significantly overestimated.  And as Lewis said, some areas of Texas were more over- or underestimated than others, seemingly without any particular rhyme or reason.

Given that - and that Dave Bradlee's app generally distributes estimated county population gain uniformly across the county when otherwise not estimated, advice to hold off before assuming your districts are close to final is a good one.

Luckily for you, we get the 2010 California data tomorrow afternoon.

Edited to add: I don't know what data you are looking at from six weeks ago, but I don't think California's county numbers are final.  The 2009 ACS county estimates were off, but probably less so than city estimates.  For example, Sarpy County's (Omaha) actual population was only about 7,000 above the 2009 estimate.
Logged
Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,047
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #117 on: March 07, 2011, 07:55:27 PM »
« Edited: March 08, 2011, 12:11:31 PM by Torie »

Bearing in mind what cinyc suggested in a nice way, that I may just be jacking off with no real consummation (I hate when that happens), here psephology fans is a really quite interesting development.

Can you discern where this is going? CA-42 becomes in essence an Anglo sink, and picks off the most Anglo precincts within reach in Riverside and San Bernadino Counties. All the middle to upper middle class Riverside precincts where the old Riverside bourgeoise live have been picked off and dumped into CA-42 along with the Anglo middle class precincts in Corona (connected by the main arterial between OC and Riverside County), housing Anglos with kids whose desperation for more housing square footage in a zip code with somewhat acceptable public schools, drives them out of OC and into Corona, often giving daddy a miserable commute back into OC along that Fwy arterial that is often as clogged as an old man who ate a lot of fatty meat all his life).

So CA-44 is now 52% Hispanic VAP. That makes it a marginal CD I suspect all things being equal, maybe with a Dem lean. It certainly isn't a CD that Calvert can hold. Yes, the bourgeoise Anglos are not in it, but Anglos in this neck of the woods are pretty conservative in general irrespective of income. Their neighborhoods are browning out, they feel screwed, and are not very happy.

So I am giving the Dems a half point, making the GOP net body count now one. Bono is gone, Calvert's pubbie replacement candidate is bifurcated (if Calvert is the GOP nominee, then it is Dem plus 1 rather than .5), but that Anglo city of San Diego CD which used to be Dem is now marginal I suspect, so minus a half bod for the Dems there, so 1 +.5 + -.5 = 1 net dead Pubbie.

And it does look like I can now map an Asian CD in LA County without screwing anybody else - except Anglos - and I fully suspect the Calif commission will do exactly that. Again the map is sort of drawing itself. CA-41 has the right population (I made it go up the Owens Valley all the way to and including Alpine County because the Sierra Nevadas are a wall that I am sure the commission will respect. But where its boundaries are vis a vis Hispanic CA-43  and the other two CD's to the west of it (Drier's and that Mormon guy who represents the Antelope Valley and other hideous places), remain to be seen). And CA-45 and CA-44 might exchange a few precincts to make it look prettier, but not if it makes CA-45 much less Hispanic, and I need to be careful if I split Moreno Valley, to have a good justification for it.

Addendum: It occurs to me that I could dump the far eastern Anglo precincts in CA-44 (20 or so maybe) into San Bernadino County based CA-41, and have CA-44 replace them with some Hispanic precincts from overpopulated San Bernadino Hispanic CA-43, making CA-44 a bit more Hispanic, pushing it closer to being out of reach of the GOP.

This is kind of fun. I have become a specialist in screwing Dems, but now ... Tongue



Logged
All Along The Watchtower
Progressive Realist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,386
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #118 on: March 08, 2011, 12:33:12 AM »

i kind of wanted to redistrict orange county and see if there was any differences between parts of the county. I divided the county into four quadrants. All of them were pretty 50-50 break even except for the northeast quadrant which gave McCain about 58% of the vote. Bush very well may have gotten close to 65% here. The communities here would be like Villa Park, Yorba Linda, parts of Orange and Placentia etc. What makes that part of the county so much more republican than the rest of the county?

What Torie said, though I'm a bit surprised that southern/southeast OC is not that Republican anymore. Not only is this area wealthy (places like Mission Vejo, Laguna Niguel, Lake Forest, Rancho Santa Margarita), but it's also pretty white (like 70-80%).
Logged
will101
Newbie
*
Posts: 12
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -4.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #119 on: March 08, 2011, 08:20:28 AM »

i kind of wanted to redistrict orange county and see if there was any differences between parts of the county. I divided the county into four quadrants. All of them were pretty 50-50 break even except for the northeast quadrant which gave McCain about 58% of the vote. Bush very well may have gotten close to 65% here. The communities here would be like Villa Park, Yorba Linda, parts of Orange and Placentia etc. What makes that part of the county so much more republican than the rest of the county?
What Torie said, though I'm a bit surprised that southern/southeast OC is not that Republican anymore. Not only is this area wealthy (places like Mission Vejo, Laguna Niguel, Lake Forest, Rancho Santa Margarita), but it's also pretty white (like 70-80%).
White and wealthy does not automatically mean conservative.  Look at the Bay Area.  Lots of whites, lots of money, and not a Republican to be seen (at least in elected reps).
Logged
Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,302


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #120 on: March 08, 2011, 02:44:59 PM »
« Edited: March 08, 2011, 02:47:27 PM by sbane »

I highly doubt you need to make Riverside so damn ugly just to eek out an Asian district in LA. Put the eastern appendage of CA-44 into CA-41. It is basically the same sort of area as CA-41, is adjacent to the bulk of it's population, and just down the road on I-10. Then add the eastern appendage of CA-42 which is in Riverside, to CA-44 as required to get enough population. Or you can't because you think CA-44 will be mandated to be a Hispanic district? I would wait on doing this till the official data is put up. Hopefully it's soon.

An Asian influence district is enough in LA I would think. You don't need that extention into Hacienda Heights through to Diamond Bar. Just the Rosemead to Arcadia area is enough.
Logged
Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,047
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #121 on: March 08, 2011, 03:04:00 PM »

I highly doubt you need to make Riverside so damn ugly just to eek out an Asian district in LA. Put the eastern appendage of CA-44 into CA-41. It is basically the same sort of area as CA-41, is adjacent to the bulk of it's population, and just down the road on I-10. Then add the eastern appendage of CA-42 which is in Riverside, to CA-44 as required to get enough population. Or you can't because you think CA-44 will be mandated to be a Hispanic district? I would wait on doing this till the official data is put up. Hopefully it's soon.

An Asian influence district is enough in LA I would think. You don't need that extention into Hacienda Heights through to Diamond Bar. Just the Rosemead to Arcadia area is enough.

Well I noted above that the eastern leg of CA-44 is probably going to be added to CA-41, and CA-44 will pick up some nearby Hispanic precincts in San Bernadino County. That will probably push the Hispanic percentage up to 54% or something, and yes, the CD is probably required under the VRA (it clearly is a community of interest, and a rather compact and contiguous one to boot), and in all events the commission (I think about two thirds of its members are something other than Anglo by the way), and the Hispanic political community, will demand it. Every Hispanic CD that can be drawn, will be drawn, unless and until such time as they get a percentage share of the CD's that about equals their share of California's population. I doubt if it is really possible to hit that number by the way, so there isn't much danger of max out.

The Asian CD is pretty easy to defend (just zip east on the Pomona Fwy, and it is Asian almost continually along it, and it really has a nice geographic niche between the Anglo world and the Hispanic world. In short, it's a community of interest, far more than anything else that could be done. I think the commission will in fact draw it. This map exercise is a prediction of what will happen, not what I or anyone else want to happen. That is the way I play this game. What would I do, if whomever had the power to draw the lines, asked me to mouse it out as they agent? That is the only way to make this game fun, and in fact, to try to actually interject oneself in the drawing games with the powers that be (or dump on them if somebody is doing something self serving and dumb). The rest is just masturbation in my world. Smiley
Logged
Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,302


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #122 on: March 08, 2011, 03:11:29 PM »
« Edited: March 08, 2011, 03:14:48 PM by sbane »

Why are you so sure they will draw that appendage though? Why not just add Pasadena and other areas closer by instead? And why are you so sure they won't do that? That they won't just be satisfied with a 30% Asian district. And it's not even as if Asians are a monolithic group, so I really wouldn't be so sure it will happen. Don't the Chinese near Monterey Park and surroundings tend to be from the mainland while I know for a fact that Rowland Heights and Hacienda Heights is a heavily Taiwanese community.
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #123 on: March 08, 2011, 03:17:46 PM »

Why are you so sure they will draw that appendage though? Why not just add Pasadena and other areas closer by instead? And why are you so sure they won't do that? That they won't just be satisfied with a 30% Asian district. And it's not even as if Asians are a monolithic group, so I really wouldn't be so sure it will happen. Don't the Chinese near Monterey Park and surroundings tend to be from the mainland while I know for a fact that Rowland Heights and Hacienda Heights is a heavily Taiwanese community.

Hispanics aren't monolithic, either, but that hasn't stopped demands for VRA districts.  Puerto Ricans are not Dominicans are not Mexicans are not Colombians.
Logged
Verily
Cuivienen
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #124 on: March 08, 2011, 03:19:07 PM »

Looking at the San Diego part of your map, I have no idea why you seem to think you have eliminated a Dem CD there, Torie. Explain?
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 4 [5] 6 7 8 9 10 ... 18  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.06 seconds with 12 queries.