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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: California  (Read 28534 times)
Torie
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« Reply #150 on: March 22, 2011, 11:11:33 am »
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CA-18 and 20 are both majority-Hispanic, according to the new Census figures, so they should be protected by the VRA.

The 20th has been; it was 63.1% Hispanic according to 2000 numbers. The 18th is majority-Hispanic now, barely, but almost certainly not majority-Hispanic by VAP so it wouldn't be protected.

It will if it can be adjusted up to 50% Hispanic VAP within a community of interest zone.
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« Reply #151 on: March 22, 2011, 11:22:15 am »
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CA-18 and 20 are both majority-Hispanic, according to the new Census figures, so they should be protected by the VRA.

The 20th has been; it was 63.1% Hispanic according to 2000 numbers. The 18th is majority-Hispanic now, barely, but almost certainly not majority-Hispanic by VAP so it wouldn't be protected.

It will if it can be adjusted up to 50% Hispanic VAP within a community of interest zone.

It's easy to create 3 Hispanic districts just in the central valley. One district has that hook echo in Kern County which also takes in most of Kings and Tulare Counties. There is a main Fresno based districts which also takes in the rural Hispanic areas to the south of the city. The western areas of Fresno County get put into the 3rd Hispanic district which then proceeds to take in the Hispanic parts of Madera, Merced and Stanislaus County. No need to jump over to Hollister/Salinas or to go up to Stockton, which means the 11th gets moved entirely into San Joaquin County.
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« Reply #152 on: March 23, 2011, 03:45:28 pm »
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anybody like this map of Orange County?

The tan district is the new 39th district. This is an open seat and takes in Brea, Villa Park, Yorba Linda, Mission Viejo, Lake Forest, Rancho Santa Margarita, San Clemente and other areas. This district is 62% white. If Bob Dornan is ever interested this is his chance to return to congress. LOL.

The Orange district around Irvine is District 48. 52 percent white district. This is John Campbell's district.

Ruby Red District is District 46. This is a 51 percent white district. This is Dana Rohrabacher's seat.


Lavender District is District 47.  This is a 59 percent hispanic district. Loretta Sanchez would run here.

Dark brown district is District 40. This is a hispanic plurality district at 46 percent. Ed Royce would face Gary Miller in the primary here.
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« Reply #153 on: March 26, 2011, 07:52:02 pm »
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btw, what is with all those precincts that contain 50,000+ people? In fact there was a precinct in Torrace that had over 100,000 people. Aren't there laws that state that precincts can't have more than a certain population? Imagine how crowded the polling station would be on election day.
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« Reply #154 on: March 26, 2011, 07:53:02 pm »
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btw, what is with all those precincts that contain 50,000+ people? In fact there was a precinct in Torrace that had over 100,000 people. Aren't there laws that state that precincts can't have more than a certain population? Imagine how crowded the polling station would be on election day.

They're not precincts, they're VTD's. For some states they're basically the same thing, but for other's they're very different.
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« Reply #155 on: March 28, 2011, 08:15:37 am »
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btw, what is with all those precincts that contain 50,000+ people? In fact there was a precinct in Torrace that had over 100,000 people. Aren't there laws that state that precincts can't have more than a certain population? Imagine how crowded the polling station would be on election day.

They're not precincts, they're VTD's. For some states they're basically the same thing, but for other's they're very different.
"VTD's"?  Sorry, but I'm kind of a newbie here, and never heard that one before.
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« Reply #156 on: March 28, 2011, 08:43:45 am »
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Definitely an illegal dilution of the Hispanic vote on that Orange County map. Remember Sanchez's district was 65% Hispanic in 2000 and quite marginal. That map is a recipe for five Republicans and no Hispanic Rep.
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« Reply #157 on: March 28, 2011, 09:17:16 am »
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Definitely an illegal dilution of the Hispanic vote on that Orange County map. Remember Sanchez's district was 65% Hispanic in 2000 and quite marginal. That map is a recipe for four Republicans and no Hispanic Rep.

It seems like he is putting all of Garden Grove in that district. That needs to be avoided.
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« Reply #158 on: March 28, 2011, 12:42:29 pm »
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I think most of Garden Grove is in the 46th district in that map although I'm not sure. I don't think the map would elect five republicans though. This map was meant to penalize Ed Royce and Gary Miller for speaking at that blatantly xenophobic anti-muslim rally by putting them in the same district. There would probably be an expensive primary and would deplete most of their resources leading to the winner of the primary losing re-election in the general.
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« Reply #159 on: March 28, 2011, 12:47:22 pm »
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btw, what is with all those precincts that contain 50,000+ people? In fact there was a precinct in Torrace that had over 100,000 people. Aren't there laws that state that precincts can't have more than a certain population? Imagine how crowded the polling station would be on election day.

They're not precincts, they're VTD's. For some states they're basically the same thing, but for other's they're very different.
"VTD's"?  Sorry, but I'm kind of a newbie here, and never heard that one before.

Voting Tabulation Districts. In most states, that's precincts or approximations of precincts as built up from census blocks (since the census can't construct their populations entirely accurately if they don't follow block lines.)
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« Reply #160 on: March 28, 2011, 02:04:21 pm »
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I think most of Garden Grove is in the 46th district in that map although I'm not sure. I don't think the map would elect five republicans though. This map was meant to penalize Ed Royce and Gary Miller for speaking at that blatantly xenophobic anti-muslim rally by putting them in the same district. There would probably be an expensive primary and would deplete most of their resources leading to the winner of the primary losing re-election in the general.

I didn't notice you put Pomona in that district. Tricky. And while that district could elect a Republican, it certainly won't elect a xenophobe.

You could still give Sanchez a 65-70% Hispanic district and keep the Royce/miller district as you have drawn it. I think....
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« Reply #161 on: March 28, 2011, 10:22:52 pm »
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So, Republicans fell to a record low of 30.9% of registered voters, while Democrats are holding steady at 44% of registered voters, and yet they each have 5 out of 14 commissioners. Obviously a fair number would be 4 for the Republicans and 6 for the Democrats. But guess who is whining about the commission being unfair? Yep, it's the Republicans.

http://www.sacbee.com/2011/03/28/3507915/california-redistricting-panel.html
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« Reply #162 on: March 31, 2011, 01:47:38 pm »
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i've looked on ssp posts before about redistricting California. Is it true that you could draw a district where Obama only got 32%? It would basically take in the most GOP areas from the current 21st and 22nd districts. I know its an independent commission, but it would still be cool if they drew a map like that.
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« Reply #163 on: April 02, 2011, 08:57:07 pm »
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I've been trying to load California on Dave's redistricting but it's moving extremely slow.  Does anyone know what I could do to make it load faster?
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« Reply #164 on: April 03, 2011, 11:38:45 am »
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Do Hispanic districts also need to be drawn for state maps? I wonder whether the congressional map will be racially gerrymandered but the state maps won't.
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« Reply #165 on: April 28, 2011, 03:32:50 pm »
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« Reply #166 on: April 28, 2011, 03:35:11 pm »
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DISTRICT 53 Duncan D. Hunter (R-Lakeside)
52.6% White
Obviously less safe with Imperial County added; but his dad always did OK when his district contained IC in the 80s and 90s.

DISTRICT 52 Bob Filner (D-San Diego)
54.7% Hispanic
He is rumored to be running for mayor in 2012. If that is the case, Ben Hueso may run here.

DISTRICT 51 Susan Davis (D-San Diego)
55.1% White
Obama probably got 65% here. That shocks me seeing as this district is over 55% white, and that San Diego has a conservative reputation.

DISTRICT 50 Brian Bilbray (R-Carlsbad)
57.1% White
Bilbray should be OK here, especially as he has a somewhat moderate voting record.

DISTRICT 49 Darrell Issa (R-Vista)
52.9% White
The PVI here is probably similar to his old district. Despite being a sociopath, Issa should be safe here.

DISTRICT 48 John Campbell (R-Irvine)
63.3% White
Campbell gets safer here taking in a lot of uber-gop precincts in Miller and Calvertís district.

DISTRICT 47 Dana Rohrabacher (R-Huntington Beach)
52.2% White
Basically a mix of rich republican neocons in the beach communities and Vietnamese republicans in other areas. Rohrabacher should be safe here.

DISTRICT 46 Loretta Sanchez (D-Anaheim)
61.4% Hispanic
Less Hispanic than the other district, but still probably about 58% Obama.










DISTRICT 45 Ed Royce (R-Fullerton)
43.8% White
36.7% Hispanic
15.3% Asian
2.3% Other
1.6% Black
.2% Native
This adds Yorba Linda and is probably an R+10 district. If this district could elect a nutcase like Bill Dannemeyer, Royce (who actually has a voting record similar to Dannemeyer) should keep winning here.

DISTRICT 44 Ken Calvert (R-Corona)
47.9% Hispanic
34.9% White
8.6% Asian
5.9% Black
2.3% Other
.4% Native
Under this map, Calvert would have won in 2010, but probably lost in 2008 as the OC precincts have been removed.

DISTRICT 43 Open
47.7% Hispanic
35.9% White
8.8% Black
4.6% Asian
2.5% Other
.5% Native
This is basically Bono Mackís district with the eastern part chopped off. This has no incumbent. Gary Miller may run here.

DISTRICT 42 Mary Bono Mack (R-Palm Springs)
49.4% White
42.2% Hispanic
2.9% Black
2.5% Asian
1.8% Other
1.1% Native
Bono Mack gets safer here as she takes in Inyo and Mono counties as well as the redneck/methhead precincts from Lewisí district.






DISTRICT 41 Jerry Lewis (R-Redlands)
41.7% White
40.2% Hispanic
9.8% Black
5.1% Asian
2.8% Other
.5% Native
Lewis should be safe here, though he should retire soon

DISTRICT 40 Joe Baca (D-Rialto)
69.3% Hispanic
Iím surprised one could make a suburban district this Hispanic. Safe Democrat

DISTRICT 39 David Dreier (R-San Dimas)
41.8% Hispanic
38.3% White
11.4% Asian
5.8% Black
2.5% Other
.3% Native
He can win here, but he will probably have some tough races over the next 5 cycles.

DISTRICT 38 Gary Miller (R-Diamond Bar)
59.6% Hispanic
Campbell and Royce all have safer districts at the expense of Miller. A Republican with a Bono-Mack like voting record could win here, but Miller wouldnít. I could see him possibly carpet bagging to the new 43rd district.

DISTRICT 37 Judy Chu (D-Monterrey Park)
53.7% Hispanic She technically lives in the 35th, but most of her district is here. She should be safe in this district. Iím guessing it is probably a D+15.

DISTRICT 36 Adam Schiff (D-Burbank)
43.6% White
27% Hispanic
21.8% Asian
4.5% Black
3% Other
.1% Native
The white % here is surprisingly high. This is probably a D+teen district. Schiff should be safe




DISTRICT 35 Xavier Becerra (D-Los Angeles)
69.9% Hispanic
Safe Dem.

DISTRICT 34 Lucille Roybal Allard (D-Los Angeles)
87.4% Hispanic
Welcome to Tijuana. Roybal is obviously safe, but she may retire soon as she is almost 70.

DISTRICT 33 Grace Napolitano (D-Norwalk)
49.4% Hispanic
24.4% White
19.1% Asian
4.8% Black
2% Other
.2% Native
It does take in some of Orange County, but Napolitano or any dem should be okay. Napolitano is nearly 75 soon so she may retire.

DISTRICT 32 Linda Sanchez (D-Lakewood) vs Laura Richardson (D-Long Beach)
43.1% Hispanic
24.5% White
16.5% Black
12.9% Asian
2.7% Other
.3% Native
Time to get rid of Laura Richardson.

DISTRICT 31 whoever replaces Harman
37.5% White
33.2% Hispanic
19.2% Asian
6.6% Black
3.3% Other
.2% Native
This should be a lean dem district. Also home.

DISTRICT 30 Karen Bass (D-Los Angeles) vs. Maxine Waters (D-Los Angeles)
34.3% Hispanic
30.8% White
24% Black
7.6% Asian
3.1% Other
.2% Native
Waters obviously has the seniority but she is also a corrupt b!tch. Hopefully this district gets rid of her
DISTRICT 29 Henry Waxman (D-Los Angeles)
45.6% Hispanic
22.4% White
19.5% Black
9.7% Asian
2.7% Other
.2% Native
It is difficult redrawing this area as there are so many precincts with over 50,000 people. The racial percentages obviously piss Waxman off, but he should be ok. Waxman strikes me as someone like John Dingell meaning he will never retire.

DISTRICT 28 Howard Berman (D-North Hollywood)
45% White
31.7% Hispanic
16.8% Asian
3.8% Black
2.6% Other
.1% Native
Berman is safe here, but he may retire soon.

DISTRICT 27 Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks)
42.8% Hispanic
41.4% White
9.3% Asian
3.6% Black
2.7% Other
.2% Native
Sherman probably doesnít like the racial percentages here, but he is still safe.

DISTRICT 26 Open
52.3% Hispanic
Obviously a safe dem. Does anyone know of any good democrats in the Legislature that could run here?

DISTRICT 25 Howard McKeon (R-Santa Clarita)
45.5% White
34.9% Hispanic
9.4% Black
6.9% Asian
2.9% Other
.3% Native
This district is probably an R+3 or something like that. He should be alright for now, but he may retire soon. This district could conceivably go dem when he does.
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« Reply #167 on: April 28, 2011, 03:36:11 pm »
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DISTRICT 24 Elton Gallegly (R-Simi Valley)
50% White
He technically lives in District 25, but he probably will run here. He should be OK here.

DISTRICT 23 Lois Capps (D-Santa Barbara)
54.5% White
Capps is over 70 and may retire soon. This is now probably a D+6 district as it is more compact. Whoever runs here should be somewhat safe unless there is another 2010 type holocaust soon.

DISTRICT 22 Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield)
48.1% Hispanic
39.6% White
5.3% Black
4.3% Asian
2% Other
.7% Native
Since Costa has a less safe district, guess where all the dem precincts went? The white % in this district is probably be alarming for him, but this is still probably an R+8 and the whites probably vote 70-30 republican and not all the Hispanics are old enough or registered.

DISTRICT 21 Devin Nunes (R-Tulare)
54.7% Hispanic
This district is now majority Hispanic, but it was also under 50% white when he was first elected, yet Nunes always seems to overperform here. Considering the whites here have redneck voting habits, Nunes should be safe.

DISTRICT 20 Jim Costa (D-Fresno)
58% Hispanic
Costa barely squeaked by in a safer district in 2010. He did however do much better his first three elections, so he may be okay here. It also helps that he, like Cardoza, is a true Centrist.

DISTRICT 19 Jeff Denham (R-Atwater)
43.6% White
43.4% Hispanic
6.8% Asian
3.1% Black
2.3% Other
.8% Native
Dennis Cardoza lives here but I doubt he wants to run here. Jeff Denham should be okay here for the time being, but the district is less than 50% White, so he may eventually have as tough race. It helps him that the whites here vote similar to Tennessee.


DISTRICT 18 Dennis Cardoza (D-Atwater)
45.1% White
41.8% Hispanic
6.3% Asian
3.2% Black
3% Other
.5% Native
Cardoza doesnít live here, but he probably doesnít want to face off against Denham. This is a marginal district, but Cardoza should be ok considering that he is the most conservative of the CA democrats.

DISTRICT 17 John Giramendi (D-Walnut Grove)
43.6% White
34.1% Hispanic
12.2% Asian
6.2% Black
3.2% Other
.7% Nativeí
Giramendi lives here, but I donít think he wants to run here. The return of Richard Pombo?

DISTRICT 16 John Giramendi (D-Walnut Grove)
41.6% White
25.2% Hispanic
16.8% Asian
10.8% Black
5.1% Other
.4% Native
Technically this is an open seat, but Giramendi may carpetbag here. This should be safe democratic district

DISTRICT 15 Doris Matsui (D-Sacramento)
37.2% White
27.1% Hispanic
17% Asian
13.3% Black
4.8% Other
.6% Native
This is probably the most democratic district in the inland part of the state. Safe Dem

DISTRICT 14 Dan Lungren (R-Gold River)
66.4% White
This is basically a suburban Sacramento seat. Lungren always seems to underperform here and may eventually be unseated. It could however be won back by a better republican (see Marilyn Musgrave)

DISTRICT 13 Tom McClintock (R-Roseville)
72.5% White
McClintock is scum, but anyone with Placer County in their district should be okay.
DISTRICT 12 Wally Herger (R-Chico)
75% White
This area is similar to southern Oregon. Iím guessing the district is somewhat libertarian in their views. Safe Republican

DISTRICT 11 Mike Thompson (D-St Helena)
66.6% White
Wineries, Potheads, Environmentalists. Good luck Republicans.

DISTRICT 10 Lynn Woolsey (D-Petaluma)
54.8% White
This is a safe democrat district, but Woolsey may retire soon as she will be 75 in 2012.

DISTRICT 9 George Miller (D-Martinez)
54.5% White
If you can survive 1980, 1994, and 2010, you are pretty much safe for life. Next.

DISTRICT 8 Barbara Lee (D-Oakland)
34.9% White
21.2% Hispanic
19.9% Asian
19.3% Black
4.4% Other
.3% Native
Lee is a borderline Marxist, but that probably is a plus in this district. Obama easily got over 80% here. Safe Dem.

DISTRICT 7 Pete Stark (D-Fremont)
36.7% White
28.3% Asian
24.2% Hispanic
6.3% Black
4.2% Other
.3% Native
This is a safe district for Stark. He will either have retired or be dead (or both) between now and the next times the lines are redrawn.







DISTRICT 6 Jerry McNerney (D-Pleasanton)
40% Asian
34.4% Hispanic
19.6% White
3% Black
2.8% Other
.2% Native
McNerney gets a lot safer here as all the areas from the SJ Valley are excised out.

DISTRICT 5 Zoe Lofgren (D-San Jose)
43.7% White
34.5% Asian
15.7% Hispanic
3.8% Other
2% Black
.2% Native
Safe Democrat. Nuff said.

DISTRICT 4 Mike Honda (D-San Jose)
39.9% White
34.6% Hispanic
20% Asian
2.9% Other
2.3% Black
.3% Native
Again, no republican save for Tom Campbell has a chance here. Honda may retire soon, as he too is almost 70.

DISTRICT 3 Sam Farr (D-Carmel)
49.3% White
39.5% Hispanic
6.3% Asian
3% Other
1.6% Black
.3% Native
Safe Dem. Farr may retire soon as he is almost 70 years old.

DISTRICT 2 Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton) vs Jackie Speier (D-Hillsborough)
Obama easily got above 70% here. The primary will be the real election here. Iím not sure who would win. Eshoo has far more experience, but she is also nearly 70 years old.
33.4% White
32.6% Asian
26.9% Hispanic
3.6% Other
3.5% Black
.2% Native

DISTRICT 1 Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco)
This is San Francisco so this is obviously a safe district. How long Pelosi stays in office depends on whether or not the dems regain power and if they do, if she will be voted back in as speaker.

46.2% White
30.7% Asian
13.5% Hispanic
5.7% Black
3.7% Other
.2% Native


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« Reply #168 on: April 28, 2011, 03:42:38 pm »
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This comes to mind.


the supreme court should invent a term. A VRA district has to be one where hispanics make up a majority of REGISTERED VOTERS. In case a hack like freepcrusher starts drawing the maps, it can stop them from enacting them.
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« Reply #169 on: April 28, 2011, 04:37:37 pm »
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I drew these districts as compact as possible (as the new law states). Districts 34, 35, and 40 were the only places where it was possible to draw a compact district where the majority of registered voters were hispanic
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« Reply #170 on: April 28, 2011, 04:51:38 pm »
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Less county splits will be done, but this a pretty rough idea of what might happen. Regarding CA-24, it looks about D+3 or D+4, which would be a climb for Gallegly.

And btw, if you start restricting the VRA to registered voters, you'd get very messy districts. I don't think judicial activism has any place in redistricting to game the system for one party.
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« Reply #171 on: April 28, 2011, 05:21:03 pm »
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Definitely an illegal dilution of the Hispanic vote on that Orange County map. Remember Sanchez's district was 65% Hispanic in 2000 and quite marginal. That map is a recipe for five Republicans and no Hispanic Rep.

Because all Hispanics are robots and are going to vote for the same candidate? A black or a white are not capable of representing hispanic constituents.

DOJ "preclearances" are institutionalized racism
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« Reply #172 on: April 28, 2011, 09:00:43 pm »
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This comes to mind.


the supreme court should invent a term. A VRA district has to be one where hispanics make up a majority of REGISTERED VOTERS. In case a hack like freepcrusher starts drawing the maps, it can stop them from enacting them.


Is he even using the VRA to justify his districts? Just because a district is 52% Hispanic doesn't necessarily mean it is a VRA district, or that it has to be one.

 Really trying to understand what your problem is here. Someone can't draw a 40% Black or 50% Hispanic district because it hurts your party? You're such a little whiner.

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« Reply #173 on: April 28, 2011, 09:12:18 pm »
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DISTRICT 40 Joe Baca (D-Rialto)
69.3% Hispanic
Iím surprised one could make a suburban district this Hispanic. Safe Democrat

Haven't been to San Bernardino, eh? Tongue

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« Reply #174 on: April 28, 2011, 09:16:04 pm »
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krazen didn't specifically say whether he liked the districts or not. I don't see why he would dislike it. I think this map could possibly be a 31 Democrat 22 Republican map.
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