US House Redistricting: California

[BigSkyBob]

No one forget, the cardinal rule about redistricting is that everything is good news for Republicans, bad news for Dems.

The reality is that the history is clear enough: if the economy continues to weaken, 2012 is going to be a bad year for Democrats. That is, all bad economic news will result in more Republicans being elected in 2012, and all good economic news will result in more Democrats being elected in 2012.

Even if its a bad year for Democrats in 2012, Republicans have basically reached their ceiling in the House.  In this case, while they are likely to take the Senate and certainly the Presidency, they not going to be able to avoid losing at least 5-10 seats in the House no matter what.   

It is a denial position to claim that Republicans have hit a "ceiling" in the number of seats they hold. There was just a "wave" election, and absent another "wave," or the effects of redistricting,  the par assumption is that the GOP will lose some of the marginal seats they won in the last election. But, if there is a second Republican wave in 2012, as there was a second Democratic wave in 2008, then the GOP could reasonably win more seats. In the last election, the wave was, basically, in flyover county. If the coasts become as sick of the Democrats in 2012 as the heartland was in 2010, a double digit gain is possible.


Of couse, if a Democratic wave occurs, the GOP could lose the House.

The Democratic wave in 2006 was not half as big as the Republican wave of 2010.  If Democrats had picked up 63 seats in 2006, they would have certainly lost seats in 2008 no matter what.

Had the Democrats won 63 seats in 2006,  they would have held about 263 seats. That is closing in on the total number of attainable Democratic seats. However, if in 2006, the Democrats had won 240 seats, they would have had a large enough pool of attainable seats to gain more seats in 2008.

[Napoleon]

It looks like only two of the four Jewish mans will be in Congress come 2013.

[All Along The Watchtower]

I guess the GOP is dead in the Bay Area. Not even the San Ramon Valley is GOP anymore.

[Verily]

I guess the GOP is dead in the Bay Area. Not even the San Ramon Valley is GOP anymore.

Danville is still Republican. It's the only Bay Area city of note with a McCain majority, though.

[Sbane]

Danville didn't vote Republican in 2008. It did vote for both Whitman and Fiorina though. So certainly the Republicans aren't dead there.

San Ramon has seen a lot of growth over the last 10 years and it has consisted of a lot of Asians. Sure, in some years that will be good for Republicans, but not consistently.

[Dgov]

I guess the GOP is dead in the Bay Area. Not even the San Ramon Valley is GOP anymore.

Danville is still Republican. It's the only Bay Area city of note with a McCain majority, though.

Atherton and Hillsborough over here in the West Bay (San Mateo County) voted like 51% McCain i think, but they're the cities the Multi-Millionaires and their Liberal kids all live in.  Give them another few years and they'll vote D nationally too.

[Verily]

Atherton was about 55% Obama. Not sure on Hillsborough, but probably more Democratic than Atherton. I thought Danville voted for McCain, but maybe I'm wrong. Would have to open up DRA to check again.

[Dgov]

Atherton was about 55% Obama. Not sure on Hillsborough, but probably more Democratic than Atherton. I thought Danville voted for McCain, but maybe I'm wrong. Would have to open up DRA to check again.

You're right on the first two (Hillsborough and Atherton were both about 58%), but Danville isn't much better at 55% Obama. (according to DRA)

Though this means that not only did no major bay area cities vote for McCain, no major bay area cities even voted above average Republican.

[metalhead2]

I will provide a detailed analysis for each of the newly released congressional districts. Keep in mind that the districts are subject to change, however. When the final revised lines are released, I will be sure to make updates to this analysis.

Antelope Valley/Santa Clarita

This is Buck McKeon's district. His 25th district is an R+6 that went for Obama 49-48. %Hispanic has increased from 27% to 35%. The new lines give McCain a solid 51-45 edge. For some strange reason, Elton Gallegly and his home city of Simi Valley have been drawn into this district instead of remaining in the Ventura County-based district. This district stands out as one where partisan considerations may have had some influence in the line drawing. Gallegly could not defeat McKeon in a primary here and McKeon will hold this seat until he decides to retire, with George Runner being the likely successor. This district no longer contains the sparsely populated rural areas lying east.

San Diego/Chula Vista

This is Susan Davis' district. Her 53rd is a D+14 district that gave Obama 68% in 2008, which is reduced to only 59% under the new lines. This should still be enough to keep her safe. Bob Filner, who is more likely to run for Mayor than re-election to Congress, has ben drawn into this district that stretches from El Cajon to Chula Vista. No longer does this district straddle the coast to Imperial Beach, but the territory is Democratic enough to keep Susan Davis safe without adding enough Latinos to open her up to a potential primary challenge.

Palm Springs/Coachella Valley

This is Mary Bono Mack's district, soaking up most of what the current 45th district contains. The district moves slightly north and avoids taking in Moreno Valley, but becomes about 1 point more Republican. Mary Bono Mack wasn't too vulnerable in this R+3 district to begin with, but under these new lines it should be safer for her. If she decided to retire, however, it would be tougher for a Republican to hold; the district has grown from 50.1% White to being plurality Hispanic, with many Hispanic Democrats termed out of the state legislature aching to run. As the Latino population grows (and it will), expect the district to become more competitive down ticket.

Concord/San Ramon

This is what should be George Miller's district. A few points less Democratic, but still overwhelmingly so, it has been shifted southward away from Vallejo. There isn't anything significant to note here.

San Gabriel Valley- El Monte/Covina

David Dreier and his home town of San Dimas can be found in this district, but I wouldn't call it Dreier's district. It bears little resemblance to his gerrymandered district that pieced together the more Republican areas of suburban Los Angeles County and stretched out into Rancho Cucamonga. This new district has managed to break the 60% threshold for Obama, which should be enough to overwhelm Dreier, who holds a 51% Obama district. The district is an eye-popping 63% Hispanic (Dreier's current district is majority White). Assemblymember Anthony Portantino, who will be term-limited come 2012, has been gearing up for a Congressional bid and currently resides in Dreier's district. His home of La Canada Flintridge, though, is not in this district. Portantino may decide he wants to run here regardless of where the lines land him, as he has a nice shot at a Congressional seat if he runs here. Judy Chu may decide to run here since much of her current seat is contained in the new district, but her home is not. Dreier does say he intends to run for re-election, but his chances seem rather dim at this point.

[metalhead2]

looks like a 36-17 map which sounds pretty good.

Looks like a map with lots of flexibility to me. Republicans could win up to 23 seats on this map, and in 2010 they would have won 21 seats with these lines despite Democratic turnout being boosted by variables such as Prop 19 and Meg Whitman's disastrous spending spree. If Republicans don't solve their Latino problem reasonably soon, this map will end up causing some pain but if the economy continues to worsen and Republicans stay strong where they need to, they will do alright. Democrats are actually hurt by this map in the Republican strongholds of Orange County and the Central Valley. It's a trade-off: Republicans have risked security for possibility. It could gain, it could drain, but whatever happens will be better than maps cooked up by Brown and the Democratic legislature for them, and that is what really matters for California Republicans.

[krazen1211]

The full counts on the California districts

Under the current district maps, Gold said Hispanic voters have a fair chance of electing a candidate of their choice in seven of California's 53 congressional districts, based on population and other factors. There are 10 state Assembly districts, out of 80, where Hispanics hold more than 50 percent of the voting-age population and six of 40 state Senate districts where that is true.

The proposed maps do not increase the number of Hispanic-leaning congressional and Assembly districts despite the explosion in the Hispanic population and reduce the number of state Senate districts where Hispanics hold sway to four.




10% of state assembly districts, 10% of state senate districts, and 13% of Congressional districts. Sounds quite fair.

[DrScholl]

Partisan data for the state is now available.

[metalhead2]

The full counts on the California districts

Under the current district maps, Gold said Hispanic voters have a fair chance of electing a candidate of their choice in seven of California's 53 congressional districts, based on population and other factors. There are 10 state Assembly districts, out of 80, where Hispanics hold more than 50 percent of the voting-age population and six of 40 state Senate districts where that is true.

The proposed maps do not increase the number of Hispanic-leaning congressional and Assembly districts despite the explosion in the Hispanic population and reduce the number of state Senate districts where Hispanics hold sway to four.




10% of state assembly districts, 10% of state senate districts, and 13% of Congressional districts. Sounds quite fair.

Hispanic votes count just as much as any other ethnic group's votes do. I truly fail to see how they can not elect the candidate of their choice in the same way that any other race would. I thought we were a "post-racial" society.

[metalhead2]

Western Los Angeles

Karen Bass' ridiculously Democratic district has few changes. Next.

Oceanside/Carlsbad

This would be Darrell Issa's district. The 49th district he currently holds is R+10 and creeps into Riverside County. This new district stretches along San Diego County's coast, absorbing coastal areas of Orange County as well. Sitting at 49% Obama, Issa should be able to hold this seat with no real worries, although fellow Republican Brian Bilbray has been drawn into the district. It makes more sense for Bilbray to run in a district covering more of his current territory, but since that district is more Democratic, nothing can be certain. Issa would be favored in a primary between the two.

Downey/Norwalk

Grace Napolitano's district has been transformed radically, cutting out Pomona and everything in between and being consolidated to densely populated minority communities in southern Los Angeles County. Safely Democratic, as one would expect, albeit less so than before. Just why they stuck La Mirada in there, I will never know. Culturally, it is different enough to merit being placed in an Orange County dominated district.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Thanks to the block groups with political data being added, it's easier to figure out the OC situation. You can easily draw a majority-Hispanic district in the Anaheim/Santa Ana area, and draw a 35% Asian district to the west of it. There, both minority groups are happy.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The Republicans want to repeal the maps via referendum if they're similar to the "visualizations". Good luck with that.

[jimrtex]

The Republicans want to repeal the maps via referendum if they're similar to the "visualizations". Good luck with that.

Previous redistricting maps were overturned in referendum.

500,000 signatures in 90 days would appear feasible.

If the petition drive is completed, then the plan is not implemented until after the next statewide election, the 2012 primary (unless the governor calls a special election).

The last time this happened, the legislative districts were conducted on existing boundaries, congressional elections were conducted based on the boundaries approved by the legislature, but that was only because the number of representatives had changed.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The Republicans want to repeal the maps via referendum if they're similar to the "visualizations". Good luck with that.

Are they stupid or what? Do they prefer to be gerrymandered to oblivion by the Dem legislature and Brown?

[jimrtex]

The Republicans want to repeal the maps via referendum if they're similar to the "visualizations". Good luck with that.

Are they stupid or what? Do they prefer to be gerrymandered to oblivion by the Dem legislature and Brown?

What does the legislature or governor have to do with redistricting in California?

[freepcrusher]

the final draft is out. Minor changes to the 47th and 48th districts. Sanchez's districts becomes a hispanic vote sink and Campbell's district looks like the old 47th in the 1990s in the sense that it contains Villa Park and Orange. Difference is that the coastal areas are given to Rohrabacher

[All Along The Watchtower]

the final draft is out. Minor changes to the 47th and 48th districts. Sanchez's districts becomes a hispanic vote sink and Campbell's district looks like the old 47th in the 1990s in the sense that it contains Villa Park and Orange. Difference is that the coastal areas are given to Rohrabacher

Villa Park with Campbell makes sense. That area has several tracts that are over 70% white, and one that is 88% white.

[Torie]

The San Diego county CD's are quite interesting. It will be interesting to see the partisan stats. The Sanchez CD in OC needed to be redrawn to comport with the voting rights act. The Beach cities CD in LA County was totally redrawn in a way that totally shuts the Pubbies out. It goes all the way to Hancock Park now. Has a competitive CD been drawn in the Bay area? One looks like it might be a candidate.

[Sbane]

The district that wraps around the SD Hispanic district is about 62% Obama and also 56% Jerry Brown. The Poway to Coronado district is about 56% Obama but voted for Whitman by 54-45. Now that district will most certainly have very interesting elections. The other one which will likely have very interesting elections is the Ventura County district. It voted 57% Obama and was 50-50 in the governor's race. The SLO-Santa Barbara district also has similar partisan stats.

The beach cities district not containing Torrance is weird. Definitely shuts out the Pubbies there. And which Bay Area district looks competitive to you? Neither of those two inland East Bay districts are competitive. One picks up Richmond and the other picks up Hayward. If an exclusive inland East Bay district was drawn, it could have been competitive, especially in good years for the Republicans.

[Torie]

The district that wraps around the SD Hispanic district is about 62% Obama and also 56% Jerry Brown. The Poway to Coronado district is about 56% Obama but voted for Whitman by 54-45. Now that district will most certainly have very interesting elections. The other one which will likely have very interesting elections is the Ventura County district. It voted 57% Obama and was 50-50 in the governor's race. The SLO-Santa Barbara district also has similar partisan stats.

The beach cities district not containing Torrance is weird. Definitely shuts out the Pubbies there. And which Bay Area district looks competitive to you? Neither of those two inland East Bay districts are competitive. One picks up Richmond and the other picks up Hayward. If an exclusive inland East Bay district was drawn, it could have been competitive, especially in good years for the Republicans.

I was thinking of the CD to the right, but now I see with more magnification, that it has way too much of San Jose (and the downscale part to boot), to be competitive. However, the one to the left looks like it has a very high SES, very high. I wonder what it's partisan stats are. From where are you getting your partisan stats by the way sbane?  The Riverside city CD also looks like it might be marginal to lean Dem. The stats on that would be interesting too.

[DrScholl]

In LA County, there was a lot of concern about an African-American seat being cut, so they put Torrance in with Compton to leave at least an opportunity district.