US House Redistricting: California

[Sbane]

The district that wraps around the SD Hispanic district is about 62% Obama and also 56% Jerry Brown. The Poway to Coronado district is about 56% Obama but voted for Whitman by 54-45. Now that district will most certainly have very interesting elections. The other one which will likely have very interesting elections is the Ventura County district. It voted 57% Obama and was 50-50 in the governor's race. The SLO-Santa Barbara district also has similar partisan stats.

The beach cities district not containing Torrance is weird. Definitely shuts out the Pubbies there. And which Bay Area district looks competitive to you? Neither of those two inland East Bay districts are competitive. One picks up Richmond and the other picks up Hayward. If an exclusive inland East Bay district was drawn, it could have been competitive, especially in good years for the Republicans.

I was thinking of the CD to the right, but now I see with more magnification, that it has way too much of San Jose (and the downscale part to boot), to be competitive. However, the one to the left looks like it has a very high SES, very high. I wonder what it's partisan stats are. From where are you getting your partisan stats by the way sbane?  The Riverside city CD also looks like it might be marginal to lean Dem. The stats on that would be interesting too.

Dave has partisan data for California with the normal sized voting districts now, so you can basically draw the same maps as the commission. It's actually pretty easy since they usually just follow the city limits.

You are right that the west Silicon Valley district has a high income, but so does the current district. It's still safe Dem. These people want subsidies for college education, high speed rail, subsidies for research, reduced military spending etc. In exchange they are prepared to pay higher taxes for it, especially in that Palo Alto to Mountain View corridor. Of course this group is probably quite fiscally responsible and will vote Republican when they feel it's necessary, especially at the state level. I am sure Schwarznegger won this district with a huge margin in 2006.

The Riverside district is 60-39 Obama and 56-43 Brown. The SBD district is even more interesting at 58-42 Obama and 54-46 Brown. Boxer might have barely carried it, and I doubt Kerry did.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

More data on the new districts.

http://www.mpimaps.com/mapanalysis/crc-july-28th-final-maps-congress/

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Caveat: some of the numbers don't look right. There are a few districts where Obama supposedly underperformed Brown and Boxer by high-single digits.

[bgwah]

Okay, this probably isn't a big deal... but did they have to change the numbering so much? For example, I notice CA-08 is no longer San Francisco. Pelosi's district is now CA-12. I'm always annoyed by this sort of thing.

[Sbane]

Caveat: some of the numbers don't look right. There are a few districts where Obama supposedly underperformed Brown and Boxer by high-single digits.

The Long Beach district numbers are definitely not right.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The Republicans want to repeal the maps via referendum if they're similar to the "visualizations". Good luck with that.

Previous redistricting maps were overturned in referendum.

500,000 signatures in 90 days would appear feasible.

If the petition drive is completed, then the plan is not implemented until after the next statewide election, the 2012 primary (unless the governor calls a special election).

The last time this happened, the legislative districts were conducted on existing boundaries, congressional elections were conducted based on the boundaries approved by the legislature, but that was only because the number of representatives had changed.

Such a proposition would obviously fail, and would just be a waste of time and money.

[redcommander]

Is it possible for Republicans to pick up seats in the legislature and the House? Many people keep saying that Republicans are looking at losing seats.

[Sbane]

Costa is in trouble, that is for sure. Joe Baca's seat is a lean Dem tossup. Lois Capp's district is a tossup as well. Also one of the Bay Area dems has to contest the Yuba City to Solano county district. That is pretty much a perfect tossup. Lots of Republicans are in trouble as well though. 2012 should be an interesting year.

[redcommander]

Costa is in trouble, that is for sure. Joe Baca's seat is a lean Dem tossup. Lois Capp's district is a tossup as well. Also one of the Bay Area dems has to contest the Yuba City to Solano county district. That is pretty much a perfect tossup. Lots of Republicans are in trouble as well though. 2012 should be an interesting year.

Definitely. It's hard to believe how many incumbents are being forced to run against each other. I just hope the Republicans make enough ground to start rebuilding their bench.

[Napoleon]

Sbane and redcomnander, what are your old and new districts?

[Sbane]

My old district was the 11th, now I am in the 15th district, which is either Stark's or Mcnerney's. So I go from a swing district to a safe Dem one.

[minionofmidas]

They also fixed Northern California some.

Contrast





(draft) with (final)

[minionofmidas]

Wait, the coastal district now stretches all the way from Palos Verdes to Malibu?

[Napoleon]

Wait, the coastal district now stretches all the way from Palos Verdes to Malibu?

It is bad for Hahn.

[DrScholl]

Costa will probably run in the new CA-16, leaving CA-21 open for someone like Dean Florez. It's such a heavy Hispanic district, I have a hard time seeing a Republican winning it, since they don't do well with Hispanics in California at all.

Republicans would need a moderate to win the Yuba to Solano County district, the lower portion of the district wouldn't vote for anyone too conservative. Garamendi is a good fit and can hold it.

Capps has won a district that looks like that three times before, when the area was points more Republican and on top of that, she does her job well.

[Napoleon]

Why would Costa run against Cardoza?

[DrScholl]

For one thing, he lives in CA-16 and it's a safer option than CA-21.

[minionofmidas]

For one thing, he lives in CA-16 and it's a safer option than CA-21.

Those two are like twins. They are not going to harm each other. If one has one option and the other has two, he will take the other one.

[Sbane]

So which district would Cardoza run in? The new San Joaquin County one?

Wait, the coastal district now stretches all the way from Palos Verdes to Malibu?

It is bad for Hahn.

Hahn doesn't live in that district anymore. She can run in the new 44th or the coastal district. But as you say, that is not where she is strong. Waxman should move and represent the coastal district. He's perfect for it.

[Napoleon]

For one thing, he lives in CA-16 and it's a safer option than CA-21.

That is a poor explanation for why a Congressman would run against his more popular friend in his friend's previous district.

[Torie]

So which district would Cardoza run in? The new San Joaquin County one?

Wait, the coastal district now stretches all the way from Palos Verdes to Malibu?

It is bad for Hahn.

Hahn doesn't live in that district anymore. She can run in the new 44th or the coastal district. But as you say, that is not where she is strong. Waxman should move and represent the coastal district. He's perfect for it.

Waxman may be a bit left for that CD. It has a very high income. That prong heading to Hancock Park and Larchmont Village is very bourgeoise. However, he does have good Hollywood connections. I wonder what its partisan stats are. 60% Obama?

One theme of the map overall it seems to me, is that it is very SES based. It is almost as if certain districts were drawn to maximize their median income. The CD that Silverlake was put in, for example, is part of another quite high income CD, that takes in Los Feliz, and then a very high income bit of Pasadena, and wealthy La Canada/Flintridge,  along with middle class (overall) Glendale and a bit of Burbank, and La Crescenta, and so forth. These CD's 40 years ago would have been Pubbie!    My little CD hugging the coast of Orange County is probably one of the most wealthy in the nation.

It will be interesting to see if the Dems representing the these high income CD's tack a bit and become a bit more moderate on fiscal issues.

[DrScholl]

That is a poor explanation for why a Congressman would run against his more popular friend in his friend's previous district.

You asked and I gave a reason. We all know politicians will run in districts that are safer in order protect their own interests, that's nothing new and it's not a poor explanation.

[Napoleon]

That is a poor explanation for why a Congressman would run against his more popular friend in his friend's previous district.

You asked and I gave a reason. We all know politicians will run in districts that are safer in order protect their own interests, that's nothing new and it's not a poor explanation.

Its a poor explanation. Costa has no chance in that primary. It isn't his district and he isn't as popular anyways.

[DrScholl]

Its a poor explanation. Costa has no chance in that primary. It isn't his district and he isn't as popular anyways.

Whatever. These are all highly reconfigured districts and there's no guaranteed results in any of them, so we'll just wait and see what happens and see who is right then.

[Napoleon]

Will Berman really run in the Latino district?