US House Redistricting: California

[Sbane]

So which district would Cardoza run in? The new San Joaquin County one?

Wait, the coastal district now stretches all the way from Palos Verdes to Malibu?

It is bad for Hahn.

Hahn doesn't live in that district anymore. She can run in the new 44th or the coastal district. But as you say, that is not where she is strong. Waxman should move and represent the coastal district. He's perfect for it.

Waxman may be a bit left for that CD. It has a very high income. That prong heading to Hancock Park and Larchmont Village is very bourgeoise. However, he does have good Hollywood connections. I wonder what its partisan stats are. 60% Obama?

57-37 Obama according to the link JLT posted. 54-40 Brown.  Waxman is pretty good with the Hollywood crowd, but may struggle in the beach cities. Still, I think he should do better than Hahn, who actually lost in the beach cities.

[Napoleon]

So which district would Cardoza run in? The new San Joaquin County one?

Wait, the coastal district now stretches all the way from Palos Verdes to Malibu?

It is bad for Hahn.

Hahn doesn't live in that district anymore. She can run in the new 44th or the coastal district. But as you say, that is not where she is strong. Waxman should move and represent the coastal district. He's perfect for it.

She lives in a packed Latino district. That isn't a good fit either.

[Torie]

So the Pubbies lose 4 safe seats in Socal (Drier, Miller, Calvert and Galleghly (sp), and get in exchange two tossup seats (one in the San Gabriel Valley, and one in Ventura county), with the lean GOP CD in San Diego (Bilbray), made slightly more Dem, and now a tossup CD.  The Santa Barbara seat (Capps) goes from safe Dem to tossup. Have I got this about right?

[RBH]

So the Pubbies lose 4 safe seats in Socal (Drier, Miller, Calvert and Galleghly (sp), and get in exchange two tossup seats (one in the San Gabriel Valley, and on in Ventura county), with the lean GOP CD in San Diego (Bilbray), made slightly more Dem, and now a tossup CD.  The Santa Barbara seat (Capps) goes from safe Dem to tossup. Have I got this about right?

not sure I would say Capps seat is a tossup. It would be competitive when she leaves office. But it seems like a more Democratic version of the 1993-2003 district that Huffington/Seastrand/Capps represented

[Napoleon]

So the Pubbies lose 4 safe seats in Socal (Drier, Miller, Calvert and Galleghly (sp), and get in exchange two tossup seats (one in the San Gabriel Valley, and one in Ventura county), with the lean GOP CD in San Diego (Bilbray), made slightly more Dem, and now a tossup CD.  The Santa Barbara seat (Capps) goes from safe Dem to tossup. Have I got this about right?

The old CA-20 is now lean GOP and the old CA-36 is probably lean Dem. IMO.

[Sbane]

So the Pubbies lose 4 safe seats in Socal (Drier, Miller, Calvert and Galleghly (sp), and get in exchange two tossup seats (one in the San Gabriel Valley, and on in Ventura county), with the lean GOP CD in San Diego (Bilbray), made slightly more Dem, and now a tossup CD.  The Santa Barbara seat (Capps) goes from safe Dem to tossup. Have I got this about right?

Where are you seeing the tossup district in the San Gabriel Valley? The numbers aren't right for the Upland and Glendora to Pasadena district. Check out the numbers for the Governor and Senate races and you will see what I am talking about.

Miller and Royce got put in the same, safe GOP district. Calvert got put into the GOP district in Riverside County. Drier is completely screwed. Elton Gallegly and Buck Mckeon also got drawn into the same district. Elton lives very close to the Ventura County swing district so it's possible he runs there. It voted for both Whitman and Fiorina so he could win there. Or he could primary Mckeon, but Mckeon represents the area and he doesn't. Not good odds.  

[Torie]

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Actually, what I "saw" was mere text. It was probably put up by some Pubbie hack however, so probably I was foolish to pay it any mind.

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[Napoleon]

Joe Baca's new district is probably safe despite the low Obama totals because of the Hispanic and black vote strength outweighing the white vote.

[Brittain33]

How competitive is the suburban Sacramento district?

[DrScholl]

I count 38 districts that both Obama and Brown won. If Brown could carry a district in 2010 of all years, then it at least Leans Democratic in even a poor or neutral year. The real swing districts are CA-10, CA-52 and CA-26, the latter of which being the most winnable for Democrats.

[krazen1211]

How competitive is the suburban Sacramento district?

Lundgrens I believe is Whitman 47%, Fiorina 53%.

Garamendi's? I believe is Whitman 46%; Fiorina 51%

[krazen1211]

I count 38 districts that both Obama and Brown won. If Brown could carry a district in 2010 of all years, then it at least Leans Democratic in even a poor or neutral year. The real swing districts are CA-10, CA-52 and CA-26, the latter of which being the most winnable for Democrats.

CA-52 is Bilbray's district. Brown lost it by 8 points.

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/crc-july-28th-final-maps-congress/CD52.png

[DrScholl]

I count 38 districts that both Obama and Brown won. If Brown could carry a district in 2010 of all years, then it at least Leans Democratic in even a poor or neutral year. The real swing districts are CA-10, CA-52 and CA-26, the latter of which being the most winnable for Democrats.

CA-52 is Bilbray's district. Brown lost it by 8 points.

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/crc-july-28th-final-maps-congress/CD52.png

I know whose district it is and what the numbers are, thank you. Obama won this new version in 2008 by about 2 points than he did the old one, which shifts the PVI. It's fair to call it a swing district, since it has potential to shift in Dem year.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Some numbers from Dave Wasserman.

• Garamendi (if he runs in the new 3rd) goes from 66.1% Obama to 56.2%
• Denham (if he runs in Modesto) goes from 46.9% Obama to 51.5%
• Lungren goes from 50.2% Obama to 52.9%
• McNerney's new seat goes from 54.7% Obama to 57.9%
• Dreier (if he stays in the SGV) goes from 52.1% Obama to 62.8%
• Baca drops from 69.3% Obama to 57.8%
• Gallegly goes from 51.4% Obama to 57.8%
• Capps goes from 66.9% Obama to 57.7%
• Bilbray (if he runs in N. San Diego) goes from 52.1% Obama to 54.8%
• Davis (if she runs in Chula Vista/National City) goes from 67.6% Obama to 64.5%

[Sbane]

How competitive is the suburban Sacramento district?

It's a lean R seat imo, but Lungren has been running pretty weak lately so there is a good chance he would lose.

[redcommander]

Can the Republicans please run a diverse list of candidates? Redistricting has given them the opportunity to add new blood to its ranks, and I'm really sick and tired of how much the Cal GOP keeps shooting themselves in the foot with minority voters.

[jimrtex]

One theme of the map overall it seems to me, is that it is very SES based. It is almost as if certain districts were drawn to maximize their median income. The CD that Silverlake was put in, for example, is part of another quite high income CD, that takes in Los Feliz, and then a very high income bit of Pasadena, and wealthy La Canada/Flintridge,  along with middle class (overall) Glendale and a bit of Burbank, and La Crescenta, and so forth. These CD's 40 years ago would have been Pubbie!    My little CD hugging the coast of Orange County is probably one of the most wealthy in the nation.

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[minionofmidas]

I count 38 districts that both Obama and Brown won. If Brown could carry a district in 2010 of all years, then it at least Leans Democratic in even a poor or neutral year. The real swing districts are CA-10, CA-52 and CA-26, the latter of which being the most winnable for Democrats.

CA-52 is Bilbray's district. Brown lost it by 8 points.

http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/crc-july-28th-final-maps-congress/CD52.png

I know whose district it is and what the numbers are, thank you. Obama won this new version in 2008 by about 2 points than he did the old one, which shifts the PVI. It's fair to call it a swing district, since it has potential to shift in Dem year.

Given the area'S traditions, Obama's strong perfomance there, incumbency etc, it's still a solidly lean R district. At least for now, it may well be headed down the drain in the mediumterm.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

How competitive is the suburban Sacramento district?

It's a lean R seat imo, but Lungren has been running pretty weak lately so there is a good chance he would lose.

It seems that every year since the mid 1990's, Lungren has been slowly declining in terms of his electability. One can hardly beleive that some even thought he was statewide material even way back in 1998.

I had thought it was a given that his seat would become far more Democratic, yet it seems that change (partisan wise I mean) was rather miniscule compared to the changes to say Drier and Gallegly for instance, who are now bascially DOA. Was the consensus wrong or just over emphasized?

[DrScholl]

Lungren's seat goes from R+6, to maybe R+1 or R+0 and the suburbs are trending very Democratic.

[Sbane]

How competitive is the suburban Sacramento district?

It's a lean R seat imo, but Lungren has been running pretty weak lately so there is a good chance he would lose.

It seems that every year since the mid 1990's, Lungren has been slowly declining in terms of his electability. One can hardly beleive that some even thought he was statewide material even way back in 1998.

I had thought it was a given that his seat would become far more Democratic, yet it seems that change (partisan wise I mean) was rather miniscule compared to the changes to say Drier and Gallegly for instance, who are now bascially DOA. Was the consensus wrong or just over emphasized?

I never thought his seat would become that much more Democratic. I just knew it would get rid of the rural areas and just become a suburban Sacramento district. I believe in 2008, Lungren lost in those Sacramento County suburbs. If people have been talking up this seat so much, it is mostly due to the fact that Lungren performs so horribly. Even if a Democrat wins here, he will find it hard to hold on to it.

I always knew Drier, and one of either Royce, Miller or Calvert was f'ed. I didn't know Drier was in that much trouble though. I thought he might at least get a district that voted by say 10-15 points for Obama. I disagree that Gallegly is DOA. That Ventura county district is a perfect tossup. Both Whitman and Fiorina won here. Gallegly should be able to compete or he has no business being in congress.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Yes, he can run in that seat, I was speaking in terms of the far less likely scenario of him running against McKeon, since that is where he was placed. Don't know why I did that that though since in CA, residency doesn't mean as much.

As for the Ventura seate, compete maybe, but he is not the type to give anyone confidence as swing seat material, wouldn't you agree?

I was really hoping it would be Calvert of the trio you listed.

Doesn't CA introduce that new primary system as well next year, making things even more uncertain?

[minionofmidas]

What is that primary system like?

[DrScholl]

Gallegly's home and base of Simi Valley being cut out of the district puts him at a big disadvantage, especially when the seat now takes on Oxnard. He's never run a competitive race and probably does not want to start now. He almost retired in 2006, so it's conceivable he may not run.

The primary is now like Louisana's, everyone runs on the same ticket and the top two advance. There will be several same party general election matchups.

[minionofmidas]

Gallegly's home and base of Simi Valley being cut out of the district puts him at a big disadvantage, especially when the seat now takes on Oxnard. He's never run a competitive race and probably does not want to start now. He almost retired in 2006, so it's conceivable he may not run.

Right, I remember that. He only withdrew from retiring when he noticed it was too late to get his chosen successor on the primary ballot, and some unknown joke primary challenger would have become the Republican candidate.

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Cajunifornia?

Louisiana doesn't have such primaries anymore, though. (Also, I assume you'll have a top two G.E. even if the first received a majority of the vote?)