US House Redistricting: California
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Sbane
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« Reply #50 on: February 11, 2011, 09:25:53 PM »



Something like this might be drawn. Mind you these are not the ACS figures so it's not 100% accurate, just some ballpark figures. I wanted to draw something up quickly, and didn't want to deal with version 2.0.
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Torie
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« Reply #51 on: February 11, 2011, 10:00:04 PM »
« Edited: February 11, 2011, 10:46:50 PM by Torie »

Looks reasonable actually, sbane, except I don't like that red snake thing much as a facial matter, without any other thought whatsoever.

In any event, I just go where my mouse leads me, and having not begun to draw anything yet, had no firm as opposed to speculative preconceived notions about central and northern OC. There is indeed a choice between one long coastal CD, and the zebra look that you drew. The fun thing, is that given that it is my own county, I should have some "inside" knowledge" about what the testimony, etc., will be. There is however, a coastal versus inland divide after one gets north of the Y. Different social sets migrate to one or the other, even if they have the same income levels - up to a point. But I don't like dividing cities (yes of course Anaheim will be chopped, and maybe Santa Ana north of 17th St. still, and the far southeastern bit of Santa Ana I notice has some fancy new condos, so it may have gone Anglo/Asian), unless I have a clear reason to do that in my mind (folks are quite city oriented in OC), and that can push the mouse in other ways.

By the way, here is a fun question. Of the 7 CD's that I have drawn so far, which has the lowest Hispanic percentage, and by a clear margin?  No, it's not CA-45.  Tongue
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Sbane
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« Reply #52 on: February 11, 2011, 11:09:14 PM »

Looks reasonable actually, sbane, except I don't like that red snake thing much as a facial matter, without any other thought whatsoever.

 

Another option might be to just give it Diamond Bar and surroundings, thus requiring a primary, but it will make the district look nicer. Though the 40th as I have drawn it more or less follows the 91...except for the SBD county portions, which is what looks odd in any case.

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cinyc
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« Reply #53 on: February 12, 2011, 02:24:48 AM »

One needs to start at the Mexican border and move north to do this map stuff. That will tell you exactly how much of OC will go to a CD that is also in San Diego County. The Commission is just not going to do that ridiculous appending of Imperial County to San Diego. That is DOA - especially since an Hispanic CD can be carved out of south San Diego, and another inland taking in Imperial County. And it makes no sense for CA-49 to go into Riverside County, given the Coachella Valley chop that is necessary to create an Hispanic CD, an Hispanic CD that might well be dictated by the VRA in fact.



Why shouldn't Imperial County be appended to San Diego County?  It would seem to have very little in common with the Palm Springs area and more major transportation ties to San Diego County.  Does the new California law require racist gerrymandering be considered before all other considerations be taken into account?
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Torie
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« Reply #54 on: February 12, 2011, 10:48:36 AM »
« Edited: February 12, 2011, 12:48:54 PM by Torie »

Imperial County is more connected to the Coachella Valley than to San Diego. You just drive up the valley from the Mexican border, all irrigated desert with Hispanic farm workers, right up to Indio and La Quinta.  Then the Hispanic work force changes to service personnel for the Anglo geezers living or snow birding in the Coachella Valley. It is all pretty seamless. You have to drive over mountains that are empty to get to the Imperial/Coachella Valley from San Diego. There is basically nothing there other than migrating illegals. Smiley  By the way, arguably the Coachella Valley presents one of the most extreme examples of wealth and poverty in the world - side by side. The city of Coachella is a very dreary place. Another little faclet, is that perhaps close to half of CA-45 is below sea level. It would disappear, along with my desert houses, if that little 50 foot high berm created by the Colorado River that keeps the Gulf of California out of the valley, collapsed in an earthquake - perhaps one of the greatest disasters in human memory if it ever occurs. Fancy that.

Do you want Hunter's district, CA-52, to go to the Imperial Valley or something, dropping a bunch of San Diego suburbs?  The Imperial Valley would have been connected to San Diego if necessary to create an Hispanic CD there. It wasn't. It is necessary to create a Coachella Valley Hispanic CD however, one that I think is quite arguably mandated by the VRA. It would almost certainly be litigated, if not drawn.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #55 on: February 12, 2011, 11:20:36 AM »

one idea I had was to draw a "republican depository" district in orange county. It basically takes in all of the CD 42 portion of it (except for La Habra), takes in the most republican areas of CD 40 (Villa Park, city of Orange), and the most republican areas of CD 48 (like Lake Forest). The district probably gave McCain 58 percent,and Bush around 65 percent.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #56 on: February 12, 2011, 12:27:20 PM »

There is basically nothing there other than migrating illegals. Smiley
Which merge seamlessly into both the National City etc area of SD, and Imperial County, of course. Tongue
Seriously, I would not consider something somewhat like the current district "dead on arrival". A little unlikely, yes, but certainly not to be dismissed out of hand. It has problems but also a certain logic.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #57 on: February 12, 2011, 12:37:05 PM »

Imperial County was attached to CA-52 in the 1990 round of redistricting, it looks cleaner on the map if it's done like that.
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cinyc
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« Reply #58 on: February 12, 2011, 02:12:37 PM »

Imperial County is more connected to the Coachella Valley than to San Diego. You just drive up the valley from the Mexican border, all irrigated desert with Hispanic farm workers, right up to Indio and La Quinta.  Then the Hispanic work force changes to service personnel for the Anglo geezers living or snow birding in the Coachella Valley. It is all pretty seamless. You have to drive over mountains that are empty to get to the Imperial/Coachella Valley from San Diego. There is basically nothing there other than migrating illegals. Smiley  By the way, arguably the Coachella Valley presents one of the most extreme examples of wealth and poverty in the world - side by side. The city of Coachella is a very dreary place. Another little faclet, is that perhaps close to half of CA-45 is below sea level. It would disappear, along with my desert houses, if that little 50 foot high berm created by the Colorado River that keeps the Gulf of California out of the valley, collapsed in an earthquake - perhaps one of the greatest disasters in human memory if it ever occurs. Fancy that.

Do you want Hunter's district, CA-52, to go to the Imperial Valley or something, dropping a bunch of San Diego suburbs?  The Imperial Valley would have been connected to San Diego if necessary to create an Hispanic CD there. It wasn't. It is necessary to create a Coachella Valley Hispanic CD however, one that I think is quite arguably mandated by the VRA. It would almost certainly be litigated, if not drawn.

On the other hand, the major highway in the Imperial Valley runs East-West into San Diego County, and those mountains don't just start in San Diego County.  Both San Diego and Imperial Counties are on the border and share common border issues than inland Riverside County doesn't. 

I don't want any one particular district to go anywhere.  What I do want is for congressional district boundaries to stop being drawn on arbitrary things like race.  Granted, that's not going to happen any time soon, but why is the goal maximizing Hispanic districts in a state without an ethnic majority?  What if the Census results show the state has more Hispanics than Anglos?  Do you start drawing Anglo opportunity districts?
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Sbane
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« Reply #59 on: February 12, 2011, 02:41:37 PM »

There is basically nothing there other than migrating illegals. Smiley
Which merge seamlessly into both the National City etc area of SD, and Imperial County, of course. Tongue
Seriously, I would not consider something somewhat like the current district "dead on arrival". A little unlikely, yes, but certainly not to be dismissed out of hand. It has problems but also a certain logic.

SD is very different from the Imperial valley though. That district may have been drawn in the past when there was no other way to draw a Hispanic district, but recently there has been large growth in the Hispanic population in SD (due to border restrictions after 9/11 I am guessing), as well as huge growth in Riverside County. Now two Hispanic districts can be drawn within those three counties, and I expect that will happen. And almost the only way to make it happen is by connecting Imperial to Riverside, or else it's basically impossible to draw a Hispanic district with enough VAP just within Riverside County.

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Sbane
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« Reply #60 on: February 12, 2011, 02:46:45 PM »

one idea I had was to draw a "republican depository" district in orange county. It basically takes in all of the CD 42 portion of it (except for La Habra), takes in the most republican areas of CD 40 (Villa Park, city of Orange), and the most republican areas of CD 48 (like Lake Forest). The district probably gave McCain 58 percent,and Bush around 65 percent.

Does the district look fair? And another thing to consider is how easy is it to draw other district around it, once you have also drawn in the VRA mandated district in OC as well. Those things will determine whether the commission has a chance of drawing that district.
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Torie
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« Reply #61 on: February 12, 2011, 04:35:37 PM »
« Edited: February 13, 2011, 12:24:39 PM by Torie »

one idea I had was to draw a "republican depository" district in orange county. It basically takes in all of the CD 42 portion of it (except for La Habra), takes in the most republican areas of CD 40 (Villa Park, city of Orange), and the most republican areas of CD 48 (like Lake Forest). The district probably gave McCain 58 percent,and Bush around 65 percent.

Does the district look fair? And another thing to consider is how easy is it to draw other district around it, once you have also drawn in the VRA mandated district in OC as well. Those things will determine whether the commission has a chance of drawing that district.

I don't think the commission is interested in drawing "Republican depository" CD's, and in any event the GOP members of the commission would veto any such plan, since it among other things would violate the law governing what the commission is supposed to do. Now drawing Anglo depository CD's is another matter.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #62 on: February 12, 2011, 05:36:26 PM »

One needs to start at the Mexican border and move north to do this map stuff. That will tell you exactly how much of OC will go to a CD that is also in San Diego County. The Commission is just not going to do that ridiculous appending of Imperial County to San Diego. That is DOA - especially since an Hispanic CD can be carved out of south San Diego, and another inland taking in Imperial County. And it makes no sense for CA-49 to go into Riverside County, given the Coachella Valley chop that is necessary to create an Hispanic CD, an Hispanic CD that might well be dictated by the VRA in fact.



Why shouldn't Imperial County be appended to San Diego County?  It would seem to have very little in common with the Palm Springs area and more major transportation ties to San Diego County.  Does the new California law require racist gerrymandering be considered before all other considerations be taken into account?


That's part of the problem with drawing California: If you start in 1 corner and move to the other, you come up with 'either this or that' decisions, that for the most part, people make based on their political biases.

I kind of think the better way would be to start with all the corners (district 1, 2, 8, 51). Plop down the noncontroversial stuff and go from there.
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dpmapper
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« Reply #63 on: February 12, 2011, 08:13:26 PM »

If you start in the Bay Area, this is what I get:



I think these districts make a lot of sense - obviously you have the SF district, then a blue-collar(-ish) peninsula district in cyan (41% white, 31% Asian, 21% Hispanic).  Next I drew the blue-gray district to be 55% Asian.  Fitting nicely around that is the pink district, which takes the heart of Silicon Valley from Menlo Park to Santa Clara and Los Gatos - very wealthy (other than East Palo Alto), 54% white, 22% Asian, 17% Hispanic.  The light green district takes in what's left of Santa Clara County, which essentially is all of the heavily Hispanic parts, plus some extras - not enough for a majority, but it's 41% Hispanic, 35% white, 19% Asian.  The coastal tan district goes down to Monterrey & Big Sur - it makes a lot of sense to stick Half Moon Bay in there rather than stick other parts of Santa Clara county in with a Central Valley district.  

The yellow district connects as much of the minority areas as possible in the East Bay without being ridiculous: 30 white 22 black  20 Asian 24 Hispanic. One East Bay district has to go inland, due to the numbers, so I made it the teal one.  
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Sbane
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« Reply #64 on: February 12, 2011, 08:21:57 PM »

I doubt an Asian district will be required in the bay area, although you can certainly draw it. They don't vote that different from anglos or hispanics.
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Torie
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« Reply #65 on: February 12, 2011, 08:23:34 PM »

The next thing I think I need to do, is check out the lay of the land for the minority CD's in LA County. That will set the perimeters as to what I do with the intervening space. Among other things, I need to see if I can draw an Asian CD in the San Gabriel Valley. If I can, that will box OC in along its northern frontier, with the Asians maybe picking up La Habra in OC.
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Torie
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« Reply #66 on: February 12, 2011, 09:53:16 PM »

I doubt an Asian district will be required in the bay area, although you can certainly draw it. They don't vote that different from anglos or hispanics.

The issue is whether the commission will want to draw it, and whether the commission hears testimony from Asians who want the CD drawn, and not from Asians who do not. It will be hard to deny Asians their percentage share of CD's (2 or 3), if they push for it.
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Sbane
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« Reply #67 on: February 13, 2011, 04:25:38 AM »
« Edited: February 13, 2011, 04:42:20 AM by sbane »

I doubt an Asian district will be required in the bay area, although you can certainly draw it. They don't vote that different from anglos or hispanics.

The issue is whether the commission will want to draw it, and whether the commission hears testimony from Asians who want the CD drawn, and not from Asians who do not. It will be hard to deny Asians their percentage share of CD's (2 or 3), if they push for it.

But why would they push for it, and even if they did, would the commission take them seriously? Two Asians already serve in congress from California, and they didn't need Asian districts to get there. Perhaps Chu could get a primary challenge in her district, but Honda needs no protection at all. Racial gerrymandering in the Bay Area is pointless.
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Torie
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« Reply #68 on: February 13, 2011, 11:19:18 AM »
« Edited: February 13, 2011, 11:35:03 AM by Torie »

Well bearing in mind what sbane said (again I think if the Asians push for it, it will be hard for the commission to shut them out), here is what turning CA-42 into an Asian CD (49% so far using old population numbers because that map shows me municipal boundaries, which I can use to trace on the 2.0 software with the updated population numbers), might look like. Whether I will really draw this remains to be seen. The green blob to the west represents a pretty solid set of cities that have a community of interest and will probably all hang together in a final draft map (the Asians have really cleaned out the middle to upper middle class WASPS in much of this portion of the San Gabriel Valley (this is where they primarily hanged out, along with parts of Pasadena and La Canada-Flintridge, with the Jews more oriented to the west) since I was a kid growing up in LA I must say), but the salient to Diamond Bar (even though the whole green swath is heavily Asian - each and every precinct - and there is next to no city splitting), is considerably more questionable.

The issue is what disadvantages this shape of the CD presents down the road vis a vis other CD's and other considerations, and as to that I have no clue yet. In addition, the erosity of the Diamond Bar salient may need to be justified by the VRA to be legal under the CA statute, and this CD is not mandated by the VRA (I need to check the precise language in the CA statute again).

This CD is interesting, because it is but lean Dem I strongly suspect. An Asian Pubbie might win it down the road perhaps. Smiley

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Verily
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« Reply #69 on: February 13, 2011, 11:27:31 AM »
« Edited: February 13, 2011, 11:29:34 AM by Verily »

I've drawn a very similar district on the partisan version before. It's around mid-60s Obama, so somewhere between D+10 and D+15. Diamond Bar and Walnut are only lean D, but Monterey Park, etc. are strongly D.
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Torie
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« Reply #70 on: February 13, 2011, 11:35:31 AM »

I've drawn a very similar district on the partisan version before. It's around mid-60s Obama, so somewhere between D+10 and D+15. Diamond Bar and Walnut are only lean D, but Monterey Park, etc. are strongly D.

Did you have San Marino and Arcadia in it?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #71 on: February 13, 2011, 11:44:46 AM »

How Hispanic is your CA-45? If there's one thing that stands out about Imperial, it's that it's the non metropolitan part of SoCal... if it doesn't belong with National City and Imperial Beach, it belongs with LA suburbs even less. So... if the populations and hispanic percentages at all allow it... why not take it further north into the Mojave Desert and Death Valley?
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Verily
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« Reply #72 on: February 13, 2011, 12:10:45 PM »

I've drawn a very similar district on the partisan version before. It's around mid-60s Obama, so somewhere between D+10 and D+15. Diamond Bar and Walnut are only lean D, but Monterey Park, etc. are strongly D.

Did you have San Marino and Arcadia in it?

Don't recall, it was a while ago. I was more fastidious about getting it to majority Asian, so I think I had municipal splits. At least parts of San Marino and Arcadia were in it, though.
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Torie
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« Reply #73 on: February 13, 2011, 12:22:02 PM »

How Hispanic is your CA-45? If there's one thing that stands out about Imperial, it's that it's the non metropolitan part of SoCal... if it doesn't belong with National City and Imperial Beach, it belongs with LA suburbs even less. So... if the populations and hispanic percentages at all allow it... why not take it further north into the Mojave Desert and Death Valley?

It's 61% Hispanic. The Moreno Valley is not really an LA suburb, and a fair number of folks in Moreno Valley commute to the desert to work. I know that because I have met a fair number of them vis a vis my little construction projects in the desert. Nobody hauls ass from the Imperial County to San Diego to do anything except get out of the heat - and it's a long way. Moving north into San Bernadino County is a county split, and the north Mohave Desert, much less empty Death Valley, has nothing in common with anything that is in CA-45.  I am quite confident that CA-45 will be drawn, as I have drawn it. Plus anything less than 61%, and an Hispanic might not be elected here. If even half of the VAP Hispanics in this CD are citizens, color me amazed. Illegals are here, there and everywhere, in CA-45 as I have drawn it.
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Sbane
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« Reply #74 on: February 13, 2011, 01:16:31 PM »

How Hispanic is your CA-45? If there's one thing that stands out about Imperial, it's that it's the non metropolitan part of SoCal... if it doesn't belong with National City and Imperial Beach, it belongs with LA suburbs even less. So... if the populations and hispanic percentages at all allow it... why not take it further north into the Mojave Desert and Death Valley?

I dont think there is enough population up north in the Mohave desert for a district, not to mention a Hispanic district. A better way to draw the map would be to give perris to ca-45 and save "mo vall" for ca 44. It looks cleaner and perris is even less of a la suburb than the brown valley.
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